OWGR - End of Year 2015, The Race to the Masters

First topic message reminder :

Justin Thomas and Victor Dubuisson jumped well into the Top 50 with their wins.  In addition, K.T. Kim won his FIFTH tournament since June, and is up to #61 in the rankings.

This is what the ~Top 100 of the OWGR rankings should like tomorrow morning.  Players with an asterisk are already Qualified for the Masters.  Sergio is the highest ranked player, not yet qualified for the Masters.  Most of the players already qualified for the Masters have either won a regular PGATournament or finished in the FEX Top 30.  A few exceptions like IJP's 6th place at the 2015 Masters.

1 Jason Day 12.184 *
2 Jordan Spieth 12.093 *
3 Rory McIlroy 10.910 *
4 Bubba Watson 8.190 *
5 Rickie Fowler 7.585 *
6 Justin Rose 7.579 *
7 Henrik Stenson 7.282 *
8 Dustin Johnson 6.479 *
9 Jim Furyk 6.451 *
10 Zach Johnson 4.880 *
11 Sergio Garcia 4.763
12 Adam Scott 4.541 *
13 Louis Oosthuizen 4.393 *
14 Brooks Koepka 4.346 *
15 Hideki Matsuyama 4.320 *
16 Matt Kuchar 4.212 *
17 Shane Lowry 3.991 *
18 Patrick Reed 3.914 *
19 Kevin Na 3.900 *
20 Jimmy Walker 3.876 *
21 J.B. Holmes 3.728 *
22 Branden Grace 3.577 *
23 Martin Kaymer 3.464 *
24 Paul Casey 3.438 *
25 Phil Mickelson 3.390 *
26 Danny Willett 3.347
27 Billy Horschel 3.124
28 Bernd Wiesberger 3.069
29 Chris Kirk 3.007 *
30 Justin Thomas 3.003 *
31 Brandt Snedeker 2.967 *
32 Bill Haas 2.912 *
33 Thongchai Jaidee 2.910
34 Kevin Kisner 2.870 *
35 Victor Dubuisson 2.844
36 Robert Streb 2.805 *
37 Emiliano Grillo 2.771 *
38 Charley Hoffman 2.764 *
39 Anirban Lahiri 2.754
40 Danny Lee 2.746 *
41 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 2.729
42 Marc Leishman 2.708 *
43 Scott Piercy 2.680 *
44 Ryan Palmer 2.622
45 David Lingmerth 2.552 *
46 Soren Kjeldsen 2.513
47 Byeong Hun An 2.503
48 Lee Westwood 2.493
49 Daniel Berger 2.491 *
50 Charl Schwartzel 2.452 *
51 Gary Woodland 2.431
52 Andy Sullivan 2.412
53 Ian Poulter 2.405 *
54 Ryan Moore 2.405 *
55 Russell Henley 2.346
56 Chris Wood 2.339
57 Hunter Mahan 2.335 *
58 Jamie Donaldson 2.319
59 Matthew Fitzpatrick 2.317
60 Cameron Tringale 2.230
61 K.T. Kim 2.194
62 Brendon Todd 2.190
63 Keegan Bradley 2.184 *
64 Marc Warren 2.172
65 Webb Simpson 2.141 *
66 Francesco Molinari 2.129
67 Jason Bohn 2.123
68 Steven Bowditch 2.085 *
69 Ben Martin 2.076
70 Tommy Fleetwood 2.075
71 Brendan Steele 2.061
72 Luke Donald 2.014
73 Matt Jones 2.000
74 John Senden 1.999
75 Smylie Kaufman 1.922 *
76 George Coetzee 1.905
77 Joost Luiten 1.903
78 Thorbjorn Olesen 1.894
79 Patton Kizzire 1.891
80 Tony Finau 1.881
81 Graeme McDowell 1.856
82 Miguel A Jimenez 1.846
83 Russell Knox 1.791
84 Brian Harman 1.786
85 Alexander Levy 1.780
86 Daniel Summerhays 1.724
87 Harris English 1.720 *
88 James Morrison 1.703
89 Yuta Ikeda 1.682
90 James Hahn 1.674
91 Richie Ramsay 1.652
92 Prayad Marksaeng 1.647
93 Alexander Noren 1.644
94 Hiroshi Iwata 1.638
95 Patrick Rodgers 1.618
96 Eddie Pepperell 1.614
97 Thomas Pieters 1.612
98 David Howell 1.605
99 Matt Every 1.600
100 Cameron Smith 1.589
======
101 Tyrrell Hatton 1.588
102 Sangmoon Bae 1.585
103 Troy Merritt 1.584
104 Rafael Cabrera Bello 1.566

super_realist wrote:That's disgusting GPB.

huh? excuse me?

A hacker like 9C getting an invite to an event that is supposed to have top golfers in it.

super_realist wrote:A hacker like 9C getting an invite to an event that is supposed to have top golfers in it.

Well then reference that please. Because what you did was call what I posted "disgusting".

I don't mind the HWC inviting Tiger. It is his tournament run by his foundation. What bothers me is the OWGR recognition, no matter who plays in it.

BTW, the Olympics is going to exempt the highest ranked Brazilian into the Olympic field, even if he or she does not qualify legitimately.

I believe the World Cup of Soccer exempts the host nation to the Championship.

Can someone tell me when the noun "invitation" was replaced by the verb "to invite"? It's driving me to distraction

LadyPutt wrote:Can someone tell me when the noun "invitation" was replaced by the verb "to invite"? It's driving me to distraction

I can tell you, let's put something in the diary. Tell me when you're free and I'll send you an invite.

Don't ask me, I was asked what and adverb was the other day and my guess didn't even come close.

GPB wrote:Andy Sullivan is practically guaranteed a Top 50 Year end ranking and a Masters invite.  He could be ranked as high as #36 depending on RSM results

Good stuff, thought he was going to pip the mighty Rory, but to good see him handle the occasion so well is very encouraging, looking forward to see how he gets on in thd majors next year. Good to see Boyd and Evans get their cards too, but Mr Boyd IMO needs to sort his scheduling out, he should making a few more tournaments, I just dont understnd it, those few euros could make all the difference. Can't believe I was playing alongside them both a few years ago.

Top 50 watch.

King Charl would go to #35 should he go onto win.
Matt Jones would get to #50 should he go onto win (assuming Schwartzel finishes in the top 24)

All other players that are playing and could have impacted the top 50 appear to be too far out of contention. (Westy, KT Kim, Bowditch, Senden, Van Zyl).

Leishman appears to be vulnerable of falling out of Top 50, but he already has a Masters Exemption from his playoff loss in St Andrews. He is playing Nedbank next week.

Here are the OWGR highlights this week.

Thanks to their T2nd in the Aussie Open:
Spieth now has a ~0.3 pt lead on Jason Day, ~0.6 pts over Rory
Adam Scott moves back into the Top 10.

King Charl moves to #35 with his win in the Dunhill.
Matt Jones moves to #51 with his win in the Aussie Open.
JungGon Hwang wins in Japan and gets to about #160
Ryo Ishikawa finishes solo 2nd and is about #130
Shingo Katayama finishes solo 3rd and is #66.

Other Notables

Westy #55
IJP #56
Tiger #399 (I think)


Edit: PD says Tiger is #400. #399 or #400...not much difference

Good article on the history/methodologies of the OWGR by Jason Sobel at ESPN.

http://espn.go.com/golf/story/_/id/14205458/official-world-golf-rankings-evolution-shapes-pro-game

GPB wrote:Good article on the history/methodologies of the OWGR by Jason Sobel at ESPN.

http://espn.go.com/golf/story/_/id/14205458/official-world-golf-rankings-evolution-shapes-pro-game

And this is the paragraph that to me, - not really related to OWGR but on general play - is an important one.

At its most elite level, professional golf is often a game of dominoes. Pass through one checkpoint and another becomes more reachable; then again and again, climbing a veritable ladder. Even if a player doesn't win the Masters directly following a top-50 qualification, he might finish high enough that he earns a return invitation, which in turn gets him into another event, which he in turn wins.

If you do well, you progress upwards, and get into limited field tournaments with big money and points, and so it becomes self perpetuating.....but only if you play half decently.

I don't think Sobel has ever played dominoes. Don't see the analogy at all

Think he means the domino effect rather than the game.

I'm sure he eats at dominos.

Davie wrote:I don't think Sobel has ever played dominoes. Don't see the analogy at all

Likewise..Snakes & Ladders would have been a much better analogy. Just ask the world #399 (or#400).



"Climb a higher ladder - you get to play for higher stakes, that's why there's low life in high places."

Play-Off win for Sergio in Vietnam.
But he could still lose a spot in the owgr rankings dependent upon results in Nassau.

Yep, Sergio has tentatively moved up to #10 in the rankings. but Adam will remain ahead of him no matter and Zach and Reed could pass him.

Some other OWGR highlights from overnight

Some OWGR highlights from the results overnight and this morning.

Ryo Ishikawa wins the Japan Tour Championship, almost gets back inside the Top 100.

Nathan Holman wins in Aus, should be ranked well inside the Top 200
Varner's 2nd place finish moves him into the Top 300 (from outside the Top 400). He is now the highest ranked African American.

Leishman wins Nedbank should get him inside the top 30.

Stenson moves to #4 tentatively but will probably be #5 as Bubba should remain ahead of him (only needs a 7th place finish).

Chris Wood clinches an invite to the Masters with his Solo Third finish in Nedbank. Berger falls out of Top 50 but his Tour Champ appearance already has got him a Masters invite.

GPB wrote:Yep, Sergio has tentatively moved up to #10 in the rankings. but Adam will remain ahead of him no matter and Zach and Reed could pass him.

Some other OWGR highlights from overnight

Some OWGR highlights from the results overnight and this morning.

Ryo Ishikawa wins the Japan Tour Championship, almost gets back inside the Top 100.

Nathan Holman wins in Aus, should be ranked well inside the Top 200
Varner's 2nd place finish moves him into the Top 300 (from outside the Top 400).  He is now the highest ranked African American.

Leishman wins Nedbank should get him inside the top 30.

Stenson moves to #4 tentatively but will probably be #5 as Bubba should remain ahead of him (only needs a 7th place finish).

Chris Wood clinches an invite to the Masters with his Solo Third finish in Nedbank. Berger falls out of Top 50 but his Tour Champ appearance already has got him a Masters invite invitation.

Don't you read Ladyputt's comments? Haha!

raycastleunited wrote:

GPB wrote:Yep, Sergio has tentatively moved up to #10 in the rankings. but Adam will remain ahead of him no matter and Zach and Reed could pass him.

Some other OWGR highlights from overnight

Some OWGR highlights from the results overnight and this morning.

Ryo Ishikawa wins the Japan Tour Championship, almost gets back inside the Top 100.

Nathan Holman wins in Aus, should be ranked well inside the Top 200
Varner's 2nd place finish moves him into the Top 300 (from outside the Top 400).  He is now the highest ranked African American.

Leishman wins Nedbank should get him inside the top 30.

Stenson moves to #4 tentatively but will probably be #5 as Bubba should remain ahead of him (only needs a 7th place finish).

Chris Wood clinches an invite to the Masters with his Solo Third finish in Nedbank. Berger falls out of Top 50 but his Tour Champ appearance already has got him a Masters invite invitation.

Don't you read Ladyputt's comments? Haha!

Thanks Ray

Early 3-stroke lead for Donaldson in Thailand. Looks like he got the message about y/end Top 50 for Augusta - Matty Fitz going well, too.

Do year end Top 50 all get into Masters Kwini?

Yes.

Good news fro Kjeldsen then.

Yes!

And good news for Donaldson and Westwood . . . . .

Prince Dracula's projection for the OWGR Top 100 at year end

OWGR Top 100:

Sagarin Golfweek Rankings Year End 2015

Sagarin Top 100:

The "Who in the HECK is that" award goes to #62 J.J. Spaun.

Only the hard-core Golf fan would know who he is.

Here is his MacKenzie (Formerly known as Canadian) Tour Bio

http://www.pgatour.com/players/player.39324.j-j--spaun.html

He was the leading money winner on the Mackenzie Tour and should be on the Web-com tour next year. He finished in the top 10 in 7 of 11 events played. Winning once, finishing 2nd once, and 3rd twice.

In Case you Missed it.

There was an OWGR rated golf tournament in Thailand last week. XMAS weekend. It was on the Asian Developnental Tour, but it did have Thongchai Jaidee and Kiradech Aphibarnrat in the field,

16 yr old Phachara Khongwatmai won the tournament. Jaidee finished 2nd Barnrat finished 21st.

shot 262, which was 22 underpar.

Phachara Khongwatmai finishes the year ranked 244th in the world and two weeks earlier he was 6th in the Thailand Golf Championship beating (among others) Bubba Watson and Martin Kaymer. He earned a Open Championship exemption with that 6th place finish.

This is his 3rd pro win, he will be 17 on May 3rd, 2016.

I bet Billy Payne is touching himself up already GPB and getting ready to penalise him, should he be too slow.

Is he going to the Masters?

Wouldn't he fit the bill to get a special 'invite' for the Masters? Asian, young, sponsors delight?

FWIW, it was John Paramour who was the Stop Watch Gestapo that penalized Guan Tianlang.

I suppose there is a chance that Phachara Khongwatmai could get a Masters Invite, but my guess is no as Thailand is going to be well represented with Jaidee and Aphibarnrat.

Cheng Jin from China won the Pacific Asian Amateur and he is invited to play in the Masters

Schwartzel out of S.A. Open with some sort of virus

Furyk & Rose joins Rory and Shane as players MIA in the Hyundai Tournament of Champions.

Should be an OWGR-54 field at Hyundai and a (Heavily Subsidized) OWGR-32 for the SAFFER Open.  SA Open is the flagship event for the Sunshine Tour.

Excellent stuff as always GPB.

Get your money on some early Saffa performances, they always seem to do well at this time of year.

It's a bit farcial with the amount of co-sanctioned Saffer tournaments each with 50-75% Saffer players in the field and only 20 odd regular ET players. Nedbank the only exception. The same for the Aussie tourney in December. I say shorten the season! It seems nobody gives a damn anyway.

PD says Hyundai will be OWGR-52

super_realist wrote:Get your money on some early Saffa performances, they always seem to do well at this time of year.

11 saffers among the first 13.

And Saffer Brandon Stone wins the SA Open.

will be inside the Top 120 in the rankings tomorrow.

If Spieth goes onto win later today, he will have about a 60 pt lead on J-Day and a 80 pt lead on Rory.

I begin to suspect there's more than science behind Spieth's success...

Some Projections:

If they win Sony:

Sneds could crack the Top 20.
Blair into the Top 80.
Kisner to #11 (and trending towards Olympics qualification)
Si Woo Kim into the Top 100

For winning the JoBurg

Holman, Porteous and Im would be just outside the top 200.
Anthony Wall to about 110th

Projected OWGR 52 for Abu Dhabi and OWGR 40 for Palm Springs.

Rory cannot get the #1 spot this week, but he can pass J-Day for the #2 spot if he finishes in a three way T-2nd or better.

Reed is the highest ranked player (#10) in Palm Springs, he can get as high as #9.

OWGR Preliminary Ratings this week

Farmers - OWGR 54
Qatar - OWGR 36
Singapore - OWGR 28

Qatar's SOF has been going downhill from 2010

2010 - 54
2011 - 50
2012 - 48
2013 - 48
2014 - 44
2015 - 42
2016 - 36 Projected

While the Farmers Tournament has done this 

Farmers

2010 - 42
2011 - 48
2012 - 48
2013 - 48
2014 - 52
2015 - 52
2016 - 54 Projected

The Singapore tournament is co-sanctioned between Asia and Japan.  Most of Japan's best are playing, but Asian Tour's best are not.  No Jaidee,  No Aphibarnrat who are playing Qatar and No Lahiri, playing San Diego.

Aside from Spieth, Ben An and Jamie Donaldson are the only other Top 50 players entered in the Singapore, and it is doubtful Donaldson plays.

Shingo Katayama and KT Kim need win to get themselves into the top 50.

I am trying to get my head around the points system.
I know that the amount of points on offer is a factor of the strength of field.
I found THIS PAGE
which gives a breakdown of the points for tournaments. But they talk of points from zero through the hundreds right up to 1000 for a Major.
So when you all say that the points for a tournament are 64 - does that mean that the winner gets 64 points, and others get less according to the table?

Correct.
There is a formula on the owgr site which I can't (be bothered to?) fully comprehend.

Thanks Kwini
Now I understand

Despite winning in Qatar, #11 Brandon Grace does not crack the top 10 this week as there was a big gap between #10 Furyk and #11 Grace.

Should KJ Choi win, who has fallen to #334 in the OWGR, he will get back inside the Top 100.

A win by Scott Brown would get him into the top 75 and Jimmy Walker would jump from #27 to #14.

Qatar Runners-up Oleson and RCB jump to the low 60s, and low 80s, respectively (depending on Farmers results).

GPB,
I see PD is projecting Patrick Reed (withdrew yesterday after Round 3) will jump from #10 to #9!
What would Sagarin say?

PReed is at 4.9950
Furyk is at 4.9875

All of Furyk points are subject to attrition, while some of Reed's points have been accumulated in the last three months and not subject to spoilage yet.

One of the bigger problems with Sagarin's rankings is that WDs does not count against you.  The WDs count the same as a tournament not entered.

Dubai Movers (Tentative projections, WMPO results could change projections)

Willett to #12
Sullivan to #28
RCB into the top 60.
An to #22
Quiros into the Top 300
Rory stays at #2
Stenson tentatively moves to #5.  Bubba needs a solo 11th to stay ahead.

Saffer Shaun Norris won the Asian Tournament in Myanmar, should be ranked right around #200.

Some WMPO projections for the contenders:

Danny Lee as high as 21
Hideki as high as #12 (staying ahead of Willett)
Rickie would close the gap between him and the #2 spot to less than a 100 gross pts should he win.
Molder, around 80th
Weekley, around 70th
Mickelson, around 15th