Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

[lydian]

First topic message reminder :

Thread to discuss the top to bottom guys chances, prep, ranking pts, news, comparisons, etc.

Summary of everyone’s predictions so far...

Henman Bill
Djokovic 52 %
Nadal 20 %
Murray 10%
Wawrinka 4 %
Nishikori 4 %
Federer 4 %
Others 6% (18% non top 3)

Born slippy
Djokovic 70%
Nadal ?%
Murray ?%
Other ?%

It Must Be Love
Djokovic 73%
Nadal ?%
Murray ?%
Others ?%

Belovedluckyboy
Djokovic 40%
Nadal 30%
Murray 25%
Others 5%

Nore Staat
Djokovic 60 %
Nadal 20 %
Wawrinka 8 %
Murray 8 %
Rest of field 4 % (12% non top 3)

Banbrotam
Djokovic 35%
Nadal 30%
Murray 30%
Others 5%

socal
Djokovic 50%
Nadal 20%
Murray 15%
Wawrinka 5%
Others 10% (25% non top 3)

Lydian
Djokovic 40%
Nadal 25%
Murray 25%
Others 10%

Mad for Chelsea
Djokovic 45%
Nadal 22.5%
Murray 22.5%
Nishikori 4.5%
Wawrinka 4.5%
Others 1% (10% non top 3)

HMM
Djokovic 40%
Nadal 20%
Murray 30%
Others 10%

Guest 82
Djokovic 40%
Nadal 25%
Murray 30%
Others 5%

Barrystar
Djokovic 45%
Nadal 25%
Murray 25%
Others 5%

Summerblues
Djokovic 50%
Nadal 25%
Murray 15%
Others 10%


Averages so far: - posted in OP above also.
Djokovic 49%
Nadal 24%
Murray 20%
Others ~10%

[Henman Bill]

Yeah you do get these situations where people have a great run the week before the slam and get tired and crash and burn at the slam, I don't read too much in to them usually.

Did I ever tell you guys about my idea for an event the week before a slam. It would be a 12-person event held somewhere near the slam, within a day's drive or 1 hour flight or even in the same city.

There would be 4 rounds, with the top 4 seeds getting through to the QF (which would be the second round) as a bye. So the top 4 seeds are committing to a maximum of 3 matches, obviously 3-set matches with tiebreaks.

The rounds would be played Tuesday, Wednesday (QF), Thursday (SF), and a Friday night final. (Maybe Saturday afternoon final if held within an hour or two's drive of the slam.)

The idea would be to attract top 10 players the week before the slam that normally skip it and are kicking their heels, boost build up for the slam. Therefore it should have only a minimal impact on events that could continue to run parallel to it since half of the players would be players that would otherwise not have played an event.

It would an ATP event with ranking points - probably a 250 points for the winner because would be an event with top players, so worthy of 250 points for the winner, despite only being a few rounds.

The event organizers would make the surface, conditions and balls as close to identical as possible vs the slam.

**********
Looking at at Geneva I see the top 4 all got a bye in round 1 (28 man event), so Stan entered the event knowing he would play a maximum of 4 matches.

https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anexo:Torneo_de_Ginebra_2016_%28individual_masculino%29

Same deal in Nice - Thiem only took 6 sets to get to the final. Interesting set of results, Mayer 3 and 0, Seppi 3 and 3, Mannarino 3 and 1. 13 games lost so far in the tournament. On second thoughts he is not expending that much energy, this might actually help him going into the FO. So OK, I'll give him until at least R4 when he could come against Rafa.

Zverev has played 5 matches and lost a set in every one, that looks like a crash and burn at the FO to me. I predict we won't see him in the second week.

https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anexo:Torneo_de_Niza_2016_%28individual_masculino%29

4 matches still feels like one too many though, you want 2-3 if you're one of the big 4, otherwise you are not going to play it, hence my idea.

The other thing I'd do is offer a few exhibition matches to the losers of their first match at the event, so people could turn up with a guarantee of a second match being arranged between two of the losers (no ranking points) if they want it. The problem is you have to chose between playing no competitive matches the week before a slam, or risking playing 4-5. When you want you want is 2 maybe 3.

[temporary21]

It's not a bad idea at all. It's a bit like the par 3 tournament at the masters. You could treat it like a glorified exhibition tourny, make the last set a super tiebreak so it's not physically taxing at all, glam it up a little too and call it the "pre show" or something else stupid.

[Henman Bill]

It turns out that the cables to my house only go the street some distance from the front door. I have to pay someone to dig a duct under the garden so that the cables can be run to my house. And the person keeps saying they are coming over, and not making it. And turns out the TV is going to be by those cables.

And Eurosport player is not going to work in Chile.

I don't think I can be bothered to go to the extent of paying for both that and some VPN hiding hassle.

I'll have to rely on your reports and if necessary go to someone's house for the final.

[lydian]

You need an unlimited data plan for your mobile phone.
Shame you're not in UK as RG is on terrestrial TV too, not just cable/satellite.

[Haddie-nuff]

Not knowing how the logistics work for this HB
But on the whole I cannot get the tv channels here that show the tennis apart from highlights. Sky TV is too expensive for me to pay for on a yearly basis but I do have a very very good streaming site where I view most of my tennis. and its safe
I can let you have it if you think it might help

[Henman Bill]

Go on then, I'll have a look at the site Haddie-nuff.

On the other point, are matches viewable on iplayer or itv player or BBC or ITV website (live or repeated)? If there are a lot matches for free on one of those websites I could look into a VPN hide thing.

I don't want to go to the effort of subscribing to Eurosport and trying to pay for a VPN hide thing, but if it's one or the other, I might look at it.

[temporary21]

Would a betting site let you watch them if you paid for it for a month?

[Haddie-nuff]

Go on then, I'll have a look at the site Haddie-nuff.

On the other point, are matches viewable on iplayer or itv player or BBC or ITV website (live or repeated)? If there are a lot matches for free on one of those websites I could look into a VPN hide thing.

I don't want to go to the effort of subscribing to Eurosport and trying to pay for a VPN hide thing, but if it's one or the other, I might look at it.

OK here you go

<illegal site name removed>

Now don't click on to any adverts .. when you look you will see some tiny little X click only on them and it will clear  at the moment there is no live tennis as it has been raining but it might show you the replay of Kyrigos
When you get a clear picture click bottom right hand corner and you will get a full screen.
I watch this site regularly and my husband watches the football.  Let me know how you get on HB

[Haddie-nuff]

Oh yes if you find your picture breaking up... Click refresh stream and it will divert you to a better one

[Henman Bill]

Would a betting site let you watch them if you paid for it for a month?

I think I tried this with Bet 365 for a while, but the quality was more in line with an illegal stream than a paid service, and I think it was just a small screen. And I wasn't aware of any bookies offering a better service at the time and not sure if things have changed in recent years.

I am willing to pay to watch the French Open and to me I actually prefer that to illegally doing it. I usually only fall back on a an illegal if the legal option is too much hassle or not available or if I have to sign up for xx per month for a year contract when I just want to pay for view one match.

I'd say a hypothetical service that would stream every match live in perfect quality as well as having playback options including the chance to sit down at 9pm at night and watch a 1-2 hour round up or highlights of the best match...would be worth to me about £40-50 for the tournament.

I'd probably pay about £10 for the final alone, another another £10 for a Novak-Djoko semi. The early rounds are not really worth paying for unless you have got 2-3 courts to chose from.

[Haddie-nuff]

Well the site Ive sent I get great quality .. I used it when I lived in Canada getting televised sport there unless you are a ice hockey or baseball fan forget it.... o they did show Raonic matches...zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz also.. but hey ho its up to you

[JuliusHMarx]

I'm pretty sure that site streams illegally, thus I had to remove the site name from H-N's post.
If someone can show me that I'm wrong, it can be re-instated.

[Henman Bill]

I just purchased a month from hidemyass of VPN hiding. I am not sure if that in itself is legal. Anyway, iplayer and ITV still blocked me, but I eventually after fiddling around with the settings (location, server) and rebooting the computer I got it working. Just in time to see the last 30 seconds before they finished for the day and cut to adverts. I think the VPN thing and having to bounce around servers is slowing speed down however....possibly even to the point when it'll be a waste of time.

Anyway, I'll try it the next time a good match is on. Will need to leave it on for half an hour to really see if the stream will settle down.

Haddie-nuff yours is in reserve. It looks like you have to create an account. Anyway the deletion was too late...hehehe....bookmarked.

[Haddie-nuff]

No HB I have never created an account.. ignore it.
If you have any problems pm me we will discuss the tennis

[JuliusHMarx]

I just purchased a month from hidemyass

Good, we're tired of seeing your @ss.

[Haddie-nuff]

I heard Serena Williams tried it but it didn't work

[lydian]

A funny read about what the world was like the last time Federer wasn't in a slam. Check out the photos of Robaon & Bouchard!
The Matrix was the main film out at the cinema...that's how long ago it was since Fed missed a slam...

http://m.tennis.com/photos-video/2016/05/16-amusing-last-time-federer-missed-slam-facts/58657/#.V0IvNvR4XCQ

[Henman Bill]

The funny thing is, this is probably the first time since 2003 that a Federer absence really was possible without being a huge deal, without affecting the outcome, without the winner worrying he was going to be asterisked by someone on a forum. He doesn't feel missed too much at the moment.

I suppose you might have argued a similar thing for some of the last few years RG, but this year his form/fitness really wasn't really there, and it really has been years since he seriously contended for the title here (2011 maybe?) so there was an argument he wasn't likely to be a factor.

[lydian]

On slam entrance numbers, Feliciano Lopez is currently on 57 and counting...can he last a couple of more years to beat Feds record? Going to be tough...surely he's going to start slipping and then auto-entrance to each slam isn't guaranteed unless via qualifying.

[Henman Bill]

For the early rounds. I'm saying Djokovic has a 1 in 50 chance of not progressing in each of the first few matches, you're saying it's 1 in 200.

Actually bookies odds for the match will be lower than this because of odds of player pulling out with injury before match are not included, but on the other hand higher to account for profit margin. Let's say those factors cancel out.

So if I am a bookie, I am giving average odds of 50-1 for Djokovic's first four opponents, you are giving 200-1. Let's try and remember to have a look next week and see who the bookies agree with.

You may remember I said Djokovic had an 8% chance of losing (or withdrawing from the tournament with injury) in the first four rounds, and IMBL thought it was 2%.

For the first round, you could get 33-1 on Lu on betfair according to an article I read.

For Darcis, http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/french-open/mens/novak-djokovic-v-steve-darcis/winner, average odds about 28-1.

1/100 is the most common odds for Djokovic although some are even more sure of the Djokovic win,

Paddy Power is at 1/300, they really don't want anyone betting on Djokovic. They give 40-1 for Lu.

I'd say the bookies are more in agreement with me.

Perhaps you should be betting £100 on Djokovic against Steve Darcis to win £101, if you really believe your argument. Although, when you put it like that, who would want to risk £100 to win £1.

[Henman Bill]

Another thing I noticed when I clicked on the odds was that currently Murray is second favourite (ahead of Nadal) with every single bookmaker.

I assume that happened when the draw was made, and would be reversed if Djokovic went out, but still an interesting thing to note.

A lot of bookmakers have it by quite a wide margin, with Murray at 7-2 and Nadal at 5.

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