French Open Day 14: Can Garbine Make a Mug out of Serena or Will Muguruza Be A Loser?

http://www.rolandgarros.com/en_FR/scores/schedule/schedule20.html

3pm Serena vs Muguruza
Serena trying to tie Graf's 22 slams (Margaret Court has 24 though)
Serena trying to be 2nd person in history to win 4 of each slam after Graf
Muguruza trying to win first slam

Followed by Lopezes vs Bryans in doubles final.

Mug can certainly beat Serena who, I think, would have been out by now if she had not been pitted against two lowly-ranked players (both of whom performed creditably) in the quarters and the semis.
The Spaniard has to get Serena moving. Having played the final at Wimbledon, Mug shouldn't be too nervous. Has Mug a chance ? Certainly. Do I think she will actually win? No.

It's starting to feel like crunch time for Serena. Given how far behind Steffi she is on all other counts aside from slams she would need a slam differential of at least 2 to put her ahead in the mythical GOAT stakes. I think she needs two slams this year. That should leave her with a decent opportunity to get to 24 in the next year or so.

Looked a certainly this time last year - not so anymore.

I hope she does it. Not particularly a fan but she is awesome - of that there is no doubt. And to think she achieved all this despite treating the sport like a part time occupation for many years.

For me she is definitely the best all round female tennis player. Brilliant off both wings. MOves really well, the best first serve ever in WTA history, volleys well, and mentally (apart from the occasional female moment) the strongest along with perhaps Graf and early Seles and off course Evert.

Interesting thoughts.

Meanwhile, players are on court warming up so we could have a start in around 5 minutes.

Muguruza breaks first, and it's 3-2 in the first set.

Broke after being under pressure herself to be broken herself on the previous game.

Both players evenly matched and quite similar playing style, length and pace of shot etc.

Muguruza 2nd slam final, aged 22. You have to say if she doesn't win this you would certainly expect there to be other opportunities. Serena Williams, Sharapova, and Azarenka all presumably on the decline.

Still, if she doesn't win today it will start to be a build up of pressure and expectation to win a first slam a la Wozniacki, and today would be a great chance to defuse that for sure.

Good quality first set, with good construction of points, winners, etc. Chartrier crowd are a bit quiet though.

Muguruza wins first set 7-5, saving 2 break points while serving for the set, the second with an ace down the middle perhaps on the line

DTL backhand winner from the baseline on 3rd set point

I hope she wins the second set as well - and by an easier scoreline - as I'm off out in half an hour

The Spaniard takes the first set 7-5....

Muguruza's depth of hitting is so consistent and both wings are ridiculously strong (perhaps the forehand more potent as she finds nice spin to develop angles but her backhand is damn solid too, just flat and true!)

Really well deserved first set... I think this is her time.

Serena doesn't seem to have a power or skill advantage at the moment, but the question is mental. She has been in a hundred big matches like this in her career, and it's just second nature. She probably doesn't even care THAT much if she wins or loses. 22 slams or 21 just isn't the same pressure as 1 or 0, even if it is to equal Graf.

Muguruza is handling the nerves well and playing solidly, and has played really well on big points with some big first serves and winners on BP after great points. But in that last game, all the double faults lost the game, including one on break point.

She is starting to feel the pressure more, it is dawning on her that she is the favourite to win this match and it's in her hands, and, understandably, she is walking a fine line between handling the pressure well and blowing it. Time to find out what she is really made of I think.

3 breaks in first 3 games of second set. Compared to was it 3 in total for first set.

Both players are struggling a bit with second serve and immediately on the defensive due to the power of their opponent on the return. And yet if Muguruza goes for extra, she double faults.

I think there's too much momentum & confidence within Muguruza for Serena to overturn this - it's been an exceptional performance, bar some indiscipline with 2nd serves...it's not as if Serena has been bad per se, she's been prevented from taking control of most rallies with Garbine's early strikes

Muguruza wins....

Just as she did in Australia, Serena shows her class by going around the net to congratulate the new champion.

Woop Woop. That was exemplary. Actually outdoing Serena at what she does!

Congrats Muguruza! New slam champion! Many more slams coming her way, most likely I think. Well done! Spanish anthem at last!

Well done, Mug. She had the fire power to take down Serena and did well to serve it out having seen all those MPs disappear in the previous game.
Felt that Serena (with reported abductor probs) was vulnerable and could have gone out in either the quarters or the semis against someone more powerful or experienced.

Lopez/Lopez won the doubles too what a great day for the Spaniards.
Pity Rafa never got the chance to attempt the hat trick

Muguruza matched Williams for power and her mobility and court speed was superior. Add to that the pressure of trying to equal Graf's record and it all meant Muguruza won and deserved her first slam win.

When comparing Serena's record to Steffi Graf's record one has to take into account that Steffi Graf's record was significantly inflated by one of her fans, evidently a mentally deranged fan, stabbing Monica Seles in the back with a 9-inch (23 cm) long knife.  This occurred in April 1993 when Monica Seles was only 19 years 4 months old (and already a 8 times grand slam winner).  This effectively ended her career.  Monica Seles was clearly a superior player to Steffi Graf at the time of the stabbing.  Monica Seles was a much better relative equivalent (women's game versus mens game) to a Rafael Nadal.  Monica Seles would have probably gone on to break every record in the women's sport of tennis.

Serena Williams appears to have been the most physically powerful woman ever to have played the game of women's tennis.  I think a part of her career was affected by motivational issues - finding that there was more to life than tennis.  Also I think there may have been family issues to contend with such as the murder of her sister.

I do suspect we are starting to see a decline in Serena - not that she's fallen off a cliff, but the things that have been her advantages (weight of shot and speed of movement) are no longer better than some of her opponents, and she just looks a little heavy and laboured at times, especially her footwork around the ball rather than her absolute speed.

Still think she's the favourite for Wimbledon and USO, as she'll get more free points from her serve, but she's less of an overwhelming favourite than in the last few years.

Have to say I fancied Muguruza to win - not her first GS final, so the nerves would be less, and she's definitely the up and coming star of the WTA. Be interesting to see though if she can maintain the form and go on to be a dominant no 1, or if she'll go the way of Ivanovic - reach the top and then down hill all the way.

NS
Interesting comment regarding Serena's motivation. I always have the impression that she wins mainly because she is simply the best player (as with Federer in his prime) rather than by being the most driven (the Nadal or Connors school), and with what's happened to her and her family over the years, getting on the court and just hitting some balls may sometimes be a relief. I'm also curious about the dynamic that must exist between Serena and Venus - for a large part of their careers, they were each other's main opponents, but they rarely seemed to play truly competitive matches against each other. It often seemed that it was a case of whose turn was it to win?

Good win for the Spaniard and I see more slams coming her way in the future.

I had to go out for an appointment. I managed to hang on to watch a few match points at 5-3 but eventually left at 5-4.

Not sure about this quote from Serena though.

"It was OK," she said. "I'm not one to ever make excuses and say, like, 'Oh, my adductor was hurting,' or whatever.

"At the end of the day I didn't play the game I needed to play to win and she did. Adductor or not, she played to win.

She is basically saying she wouldn't blame the loss on her injury, but why mention it at all. In fact it comes across like she is saying the injury was decisive when you consider in another quote she talked about the first set being decided on a single point.

I wouldnt read too much into her mentioning it as such though. More likely, what happens at post-match press conferences is a journalists ask:'What about your abductor injury?' It is then brought into the conversation but we don't here what questions the players are asked but just get players replies.

According to Twitter (not always reliable) the adductor problem was mentioned by Bartoli in her TV commentary before the final. Some have criticised her for revealing this.
  Journalists, I guess, picked this up and put it to Serena at the post-match press conference.

Yes that makes sense sfp.

CaledonianCraig wrote:I wouldnt read too much into her mentioning it as such though. More likely, what happens at post-match press conferences is a journalists ask:'What about your abductor injury?' It is then brought into the conversation but we don't here what questions the players are asked but just get players replies.

Precisely, that's exactly how these things go.

That's a good point. I am aware of that and I meant to mention that, but I forgot.