Super XV: Round 17 Preview

First topic message reminder :

This is just a quick look at the coming weekend's Super XV matches. I'll add in team selections, bookmaker odds etc as they become available.

The penultimate round of play includes 3 matches that should decide the makeup of the playoffs - as the Dominion says, the season is coming to the crunch.

Matches of the round for me will be the Crusaders vs the Blues battling for top spot in the NZ conference, the Stormers seeking to sew up the South African conference and the Waratahs hosting the Highlanders in a match neither can afford to lose.

Top 8
1. Reds Australian Conference Leader 58 (played 14)
2. Stormers South African Conference Leader 57 (played 14)
3. Blues New Zealand Conference Leader 55 (played 14)
4. Crusaders Wildcard 53 (played 14)
5. Sharks 51 Wildcard (played 14)
6. Bulls 49 Wildcard (played 14)
7. Waratahs 47 (played 14)
8. Highlanders 45 (played 14)


Draw
Friday 10 June Venue WST AEST NZ RSA
Chiefs v Hurricanes Waikato Stadium 1535 1735 1935 0935
ACT Brumbies v Melbourne Rebels Canberra Stadium 1740 1940 2140 1140
Saturday 11 June Venue WST AEST NZ RSA
Crusaders v Blues Alpine Energy Stadium, Timaru 1535 1735 1935 0935
Waratahs v Highlanders Sydney Football Stadium 1740 1940 2140 1140
Western Force v Queensland Reds nib Stadium 2005 2205 2405 1405
Lions v Sharks Coca-Cola Park 2205 0005* 0205* 1605
Stormers v Bulls Newlands Stadium 0010* 0210* 0410* 1810
*Sunday 12 June
BYE: Cheetahs

Competition Background and links
Full points table
Last week's preview and discussion
All Blacks selection barometer
NZ Herald's Week 16 Stats review
Betting odds summary

Bookies' odds (as at 9/6/11)
Chiefs (8/15) Draw (22) Hurricanes (15/8)
Brumbies (2/9) Draw (28) Rebels (9/2)
Crusaders (4/11) Draw (25) Blues (11/4)
Waratahs (2/5) Draw (25) Highlanders (11/4)
Western Force (15/8) Draw (22) Reds (1/2)
Lions (7/2) Draw (28) Sharks (2/7)
Stormers (4/6) Draw (20) Bulls (17/10)


Matches info

Chiefs v Hurricanes
This match is effectively a playoff for the NZ conference wooden spoon, though plenty of players will be wanting to make statements to the All Blacks selectors. Rumours of disharmony swirl around the Hurricanes camp as a result of coach Mark Hammet's attempt to impose some more structure on the team. Skipper Andrew Hore is looking for a new team for next season (he has an NZRU offer on the table and interest from Agen), while question marks also hang over Hammet's relationship with Nonu and Weepu. Nonu is being courted by the Chiefs, Highlanders and Montpelier, while the Highlanders are also interested in Weepu.

The Chiefs lead by their resurgent veterans Mils Muliaina and Tana Umaga will be favourites, but the Hurricanes often win when least expected to.

Result: 18-18 Draw

Hurricanes:
Cory Jane, Julian Savea, Alapati Leiua, Ma'a Nonu, Hosea Gear, Aaron Cruden, Piri Weepu, Victor Vito, Jack Lam, Faifili Levave, James Broadhurst, Jeremy Thrush, Neemia Tialata, Andrew Hore (c), John Schwalger. Reserves: Dane Coles, Jacob Ellison, Jason Eaton, Mark Reddish / Karl Lowe, Tyson keats, Jayden Hayward, Richard Buckman.

Tialata starts his 100th Super match for the 'Canes

Chiefs:
Mils Muliaina, Lelia Masaga, Richard Kahui, Dwayne Sweeney, Sitiveni Sivivatu, Stephen Donald, Brendon Leonard, Fritz Lee, Tanerau Latimer, Liam Messam , Isaac Ross, Craig Clarke, Nathan White, Hika Elliot, Ben May. Reserves: Aled de Malmanche, Toby Smith, Matt Vant Leven, Tawera Kerr-Barlow, Tim Nanai-Williams, Jackson Willison.

ACT Brumbies v Melbourne Rebels
Another wooden spooner matchup, though with the Rebels currently 5 points behind the Brumbies they need wins this week and next to move out of the cellar. Home ground advantage will favour the men from Canberra, who managed to topple the high-flying Reds last week. Brumbies lock Mark Chisholm is out for the rest of the year with a knee injury, while Danny Cipriani is available for Rebels selection.

Result: 32-17 Win to the Brumbies

ACT Brumbies :
Christian Lealiifano, Henry Speight, Tyrone Smith, Pat McCabe, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Matt Giteau (captain), Patrick Phibbs, Mitchell Chapman, Julian Salvi, Henry Vanderglas, Peter Kimlin, Ben Hand, Ben Alexander, Stephen Moore, Jerry Yanuyanutawa. Reserves: Anthony Hegarty, Jono Owen, Sam Carter, Tom Boidin, Nic White, Robbie Coleman, Andrew Smith

Melbourne Rebels:
Mark Gerrard, Richard Kingi, Stirling Mortlock (capt), Julian Huxley, Cooper Vuna, Danny Cipriani, Nick Phipps, Gareth Delve, Michael Lipman, Jarrod Saffy, Kevin O'Neill, Alister Campbell, Greg Somerville, Ged Robinson, Rodney Blake. Res: Adam Freier, Laurie Weeks, Adam Byrnes, Tim Davidson, Lachlan Mitchell, Peter Betham, Afusipa Taumoepeau.

Crusaders v Blues
The McCawless Crusaders come off the bye to "host" (at least Timaru is only 90 minutes drive from Christchurch) to face the Blues who've now lost 3 in a row. Luke McAllister was poor starting at 10 last week so Dan Carter will face his former apprentice Stephen Brett. Keven Mealamu is fit, but Isaia Toeava, Daniel Braid and Tony Woodcock are all on the injured list for the Blues, as are Israel Dagg and Sean Maitland for the Crusaders. The Crusaders will go in as favourites, but remember the Blues managed a scorching second half to beat the Red and Blacks in round 1.

Result: 23-16 Win CRUSADERS

Crusaders:
Tom Marshall, Brent Ward, Robbie Fruean, Sonny Bill Williams, Zac Guildford, Dan Carter, Andy Ellis, Kieran Read (c), Matt Todd, George Whitelock, Sam Whitelock, Brad Thorn, Owen Franks, Corey Flynn, Ben Franks. Reserves: Quentin MacDonald, Wyatt Crockett, Luke Romano, Jonathan Poff, Willi Heinz, Matt Berquist, Ryan Crotty

Blues:
Jared Payne, Joe Rokocoko, Benson Stanley, Luke McAlister, Rene Ranger, Stephen Brett, Alby Mathewson, Peter Saili, Luke Braid, Jerome Kaino, Ali Williams, Anthony Boric, Charlie Faumuina, Keven Mealamu (c), John Afoa. Reserves: Tom McCartney, Tevita Mailau, Chris Lowrey, Sean Polwart, Chris Smylie, Lachie Munro, Sherwin Stowers


Waratahs v Highlanders
The loser of this match can pretty much kiss the playoffs goodbye, while the winner will be relying on losses for the Bulls or Sharks to edge back into the top 6. The Highlanders have narrowly lost their last 2 home games while the 'Tahs picked up a couple of losing bonus points on their tour to South Africa. The Waratahs have severe injury worries in their front row, and if Paddy Ryan isn't fit then they will be forced to start academy player Jeremy Tilse and then be forced to scour the club rugby ranks for a reserve prop. Phil Waugh, Lachie Turner and Ben Mowan are all doubtful starters. Expect the Highlanders to be dominant at scrumtime, though their patched up backline will need to find the tryline to get the win. Veteran Tony Brown returns at 10 for the Southern Men as Lima Sopoaga heads off to Italy for the U20 RWC, while Jimmy Cowan gets a rest on the bench. UPDATE, the Waratahs are now expecting several players off their casualty list to make the match.

Waratahs: Kurtley Beale, Lachie Turner, Tom Carter, Berrick Barnes, Sosene Anesi, Daniel Halangahu, Luke Burgess, Wycliff Palu, Phil Waugh, Dave Dennis, Sitaleki Timani, Dean Mumm, Al Baxter, Tatafu Polota-Nau, Benn Robinson. Reserves: John Ulugia, Jeremy Tilse, Pat O’Connor, Chris Alcock, Hugh Perrett, Josh Holmes, Atieli Pakalani.

Highlanders:
Ben Smith, Kade Poki, Kendrick Lynn, Shaun Treeby, Siale Piutau, Tony Brown, Aaron Smith, Nasi Manu, Alando Soakai, Adam Thomson, Josh Bekhuis, Jarrad Hoeata, Bronson Murray, Jason Rutledge, Jamie Mackintosh (captain). Reserves: Mo Schwalger, Chris King, Nick Crosswell, John Hardie, Jimmy Cowan, Robbie Robinson, Telusa Veainu

Western Force v Queensland Reds
The Reds will have been stung by their loss to the Brumbies last week, and need a win to hold onto top spot on the overall table - securing home semis and finals are crucial. The Force won't be pushovers at home though, and are coming off a good away win in Dunedin last week.

Western Force:
James O’Connor, Nick Cummins, Patrick Dellit, Rory Sidey, David Smith, James Stannard, Brett Sheehan, Richard Brown, David Pocock, Matt Hodgson, Nathan Sharpe (captain), Sam Wykes, Matt Dunning, Nathan Charles, Kieran Longbottom. Reserves: Ben Whittaker, Tim Fairbrother, Tom Hockings, Ben McCalman, Mark Swanepoel, Mitch Inman, Alfie Mafi

Queensland Reds:
Jono Lance, Rod Davies, Will Chambers, Ben Tapuai, Luke Morahan, Quade Cooper, Will Genia; Radike Samo, Liam Gill, Scott Higginbotham, James Horwill (c), Rob Simmons, James Slipper, Saia Faingaa, Ben Daley. Res: J Hanson, G Holmes, A Wallace-Harrison, J Schatz, B Coridas, I Prior, D Shipperley.

Lions v Sharks
The cellar-dweller Lions's last game of the season (they have the bye next week) sees them facing off against a Sharks side needing a win to stay in the top 6. Hard to see the Lions adding to their 3 wins this season, though the 4 bye points next week may be enough to edge the Rebels for the overall wooden spoon.

Lions: TBC


Sharks: TBC


Stormers v Bulls
A grand finale (and repeat of last year's final) to the weekend could decide the South African conference. A win for the Stormers will seal the conference for them, while a loss for the Bulls will leave them vulnerable to missing out on the playoffs altogether. Andries Bekker comes off a rest to battle Victor Matfield, while Danie Roussow moves to lock in place of the injured Bakkies Botha

Stormers:
Conrad Jantjes, Gio Aplon, Jaque Fourie, Jean de Villiers, Bryan Habana, Kurt Coleman, Ricky Januarie, Duane Vermeulen, Francois Louw, Schalk Burger (captain), Andries Bekker, Rynhardt Elstadt, Brok Harris, Deon Fourie, Wicus Blaauw. Reserves: Tiaan Liebenberg, Steven Kitshoff, Frans Malherbe, Anton van Zyl, Nick Koster, Dewaldt Duvenage, Juan de Jongh


Bulls
Zane Kirchner, Gerhard van den Heever, Jaco Pretorius, Wynand Olivier, Bjorn Basson, Morne Steyn, Francois Hougaard, Pierre Spies, Dewald Potgieter, Deon Stegmann, Victor Matfield (captain), Danie Rossouw, Werner Kruger, Gary Botha, Dean Greyling. Reserves: Chiliboy Ralepelle, Rossouw de Klerk, Flip van der Merwe, Derick Kuun, Dustin Jinka, Francois Brummer, Stephan Dippenaar

Match Officials (cheers Hobo)

Chiefs vs Hurricanes in Hamilton
Referee: Steve Walsh
Assistant referees: Bryce Lawrence, Nick Briant
Television match official: Ben Skeen

Brumbies vs Rebels in Canberra
Referee: Glen Jackson
Assistant referees: Ian Smith, Steve Hardy
Television match official: Matt Goddard

Crusaders vs Blues in Timaru
Referee: Craig Joubert
Assistant referees: Vinny Munro, Kane McBride
Television match official: Keith Brown

Waratahs vs Highlanders in Sydney
Referee: Chris Pollock
Assistant referees: James Leckie, Andrew Lees
Television match official: Matt Goddard

Force vs Reds in Perth
Referee: Stuart Dickinson
Assistant referees: Nathan Pearce, Julian Pritchard
Television match official: George Ayoub

Lions vs Sharks in Johannesburg
Referee: Marius Jonker
Assistant referees: Jason Jafta, Johan Greeff
Television match official: Gerrie Coetzee

Stormers vs Bulls at Newlands
Referee: Jonathan Kaplan
Assistant referees: Mark Lawrence, Phillip Bosch
Television match official: Johann Meuwesen

And the Waratahs team:
Kurtley Beale, Lachie Turner, Tom Carter, Berrick Barnes, Sosene Anesi, Daniel Halangahu, Luke Burgess, Wycliff Palu, Phil Waugh, Dave Dennis, Sitaleki Timani, Dean Mumm, Al Baxter, Tatafu Polota-Nau, Benn Robinson. Reserves: John Ulugia, Jeremy Tilse, Pat O’Connor, Chris Alcock, Hugh Perrett, Josh Holmes, Atieli Pakalani.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-union/union-match-preview/waratahs-v-highlanders-20110608-1frsl.html#ixzz1Ot9ZzpSU

I tend to agree with Taylorman. But I'd go so far as to say this isn't a new phenomenon caused by Super Rugby, or the changes to the ITM.

Personally I think the average NZ rugby fan doesn't get fanatically and parochially involved with a local side, with the recent and now mostly extinct phenomenon of the Otago scarfie connection.

Tend to think that most followers of rugby in NZ enjoy watching a well contested and entertaining game, where the actual outcome probably isn't particularly important. On the whole, anyway. Perhaps this is a bit too much of a generalisation in that there seems to be some kind of cowbell thing going on in Hamilton and that nobody from South Island seems to like it when Auckland are too dominant.

The only real solution if you had 9 franchises home and away,as a first division.
A second division of 6 franchises playing home and away.top two franchise promotion,bottom two relegation.People would`nt like it at first but at least it would cut out the arguments about the draw..The other alternative would be three combined sides from the five.That would be easiest,and would mean ITM and Currie cup would`nt be affected to much.As to players joining Crusaders to win things only partly true.Brett and Slade would probably be established All Black Fly halves now,had they not had to play out position to accomodate DC.

Its really about professionalism and the ability to make a buck.

In my day the hopes of playing for Auckland and obviously the AB's was everything.

The same feelings were echoed in the BOP, Hawkes Bay, Northland and I assume everywhere else.

Rugby was a passion, a game, a break from the working or school life.

Sacrifices were made. Time and money were offered up willingly, all for the love of the game.

Professionalism in NZ changed that. Now people expect things-entertainment, commitment through contract rather than passion. Now kids are growing up with their minds half set on Rugby being where the money is- who cares whether its the Auckland jersey or the Canterbury one, as long as its on my back.

Sacrilege in my day.

People see the glitz and glamour and crowd pulling names of the s15 and its not hard to see why the ITM feels like a watered down version. Theres less money, less quality on a per team basis and at that time of the year, the best Rugby has been done- s15, AB's- now we're expected to settle for...less...

NZ rugby is built on clear tiers- club/ schoolboy, ITM, S15, AB's. To have the second level at the end of the season feels like a regression