Race to London - Basel, Vienna, Paris

Thread for the final few tournaments of the year. Main intrigue is around 9th place in the race (which will be a WTF qualifying position given Rafa's absence). Current live "race" points are as follows:

8. Thiem - 3215 points
9. Cilic - 3100 points
10. Berdych - 2890 points
11. Goffin - 2700 points
12. Kyrgios - 2460 points
13. Tsonga - 2380 points
14. Bautista-Agut - 2350 points

So with only one tournament to go, Thiem and Cilic control the last two spots and look fairly set. RBA and Tsonga need the title to have any shot but that probably would be enough bar some freak results. Goffin needs to make the final and that will be good enough unless Berdych wins the title (and would still be good enough if Thiem failed to make R16). Berdych can get there with a SF but only if Cilic doesn't make the QF or Thiem doesn't make R16.

Vienna looks such a slow court - although Isner still nailed 30+ aces in his last match. Can't see Murray winning on those courts. Could easily be Thiem winning his home event.

Goffin v Del Potro the big match today in Basel.

Am very much looking forward to seeing some new faces at this year's WTF

A set of tennis that probably sums up Kohlschreiber's career. Played superbly to lead *5-3 30-0. Dumps successive forehands and drops serves. Gets to a tiebreak, misses an easy forehand to go up 5-2 but still gets 6-5* up. Tsonga hit a forehand down the line that was called out. Both players clearly think it missed but Tsonga challenges anyway.  They walk to the chair and HE shows it clipped the line. Kohli then misses a routine volley at 6-7 to drop the set. Ouch.

lags72 wrote:Am very much looking forward to seeing some new faces at this year's WTF

Yep, two pretty much guaranteed new faces - Monfils and Thiem. Hopefully we will get three.

Shocker from Thiem, who was awful in losing to Troicki in his home tournament. 10 winners 44 unforced errors.

Goffin looks to be on his way out against DP. Cilic won earlier.

Crikey that is woeful.
Limping over the line

As long as Del Potro doesn't injure himself again he could challenge for slams next year.  

He probably needs to focus on having a consistent top ten performance next year with slam quarter finals at Grand Slams being his main goal for slams.  He used to be one of the slowest players on the tour (time between points) - I suppose he has had to speed things up with the more tighter controlled regulations now being in operation.

Murray toiling away in Vienna trailing Simon 4-6 4-2. He really doesn't look comfortable on this slow indoor court. Meanwhile, elsewhere today Monfils sealed his spot at the WTF for the first time.

Murray beats Simon 4-6 6-2 6-2. Another lengthy match on a slow surface with gruelling rallies ....not ideal but the unbeaten run continues and more points taking him ever closer to Novak.

Murray gets the job done, not a particularly good match, and Murray looks a bit weary at the moment, few aches and pains showing. Court doesn't seem to suit him much either. Still, good scrapping today and by the end was playing some decent stuff against a tricky opponent.

Winning doesn't always look comfortable or stylish.

But Murray works hard to grind out the victories, and ultimately that's what counts.

Pretty strong fields in both Vienna and Basel despite notable absentees.

18 winners to 58 errors from Andy. Didn't see the match but doesn't seem like I missed much. If he gets past Isner, it will probably be Ferrer in the SF, which will be hellish on these courts. He's probably going to be knackered for Paris.

Vienna personifies what I have always felt about Andy Murray. Slow surfaces are not his forte. He always looks more at home on faster surfaces and more potential.

Let's try some predictions:

Karlovic def Khachanov in 3 - a good test of the young Russian. Will be a serving contest but with Ivo's record in tiebreaks this year I'm picking him to edge it.

Tsonga def Ramos in 2 - think Jo's serve should see him through.

Troicki def Ferrer in 3 - Can see this being an upset. Troicki has a couple of big recent wins and played ok yesterday. Given Ferrer's decline this year, I think it will be close.

Isner def Murray in 2 - h2h is 7-0 to Murray but conditions are ideal for Isner to spring an upset. Slow conditions don't trouble his serve but do give him time to line up his own shots.

Muller def Del Bonis in 2 - conditions should be in favour of Muller in this one.

Nishikori def DP in 3 - hard to call but going for Kei to get a first career win over the big man.

Wawrinka def Zverev in 3 - can see Zverev causing all sorts of problems with his quirky game but think Stan will find a way for the home crowd.

Cilic def Granollers in 2 - Cilic must be aiming for WTF so can't see Granollers stopping him.

Odds for each of those predictions on a leading website are:

Karlovic in 3 - 3/1
JWT in 2 - 4/6
Troicki in 3 - 7/2
Isner in 2 - 9/1
Muller in 2 - 5/6
Kei in 3 - 7/2
Stan in 3 - 14/5
Cilic in 2 - 4/7

Let's assume I put £10 on each and see how I do.

Born Slippy wrote:

Isner def Murray in 2 - h2h is 7-0 to Murray but conditions are ideal for Isner to spring an upset. Slow conditions don't trouble his serve but do give him time to line up his own shots.

Granted this surface speed is not to Murray's liking but it also does Isner's game no favours. He relies on a lot of free points on his serve but the lack of pace in this surface negates his power and Isner always seems lacking the more rallies develop which they are sure to on this surface. That being the case you'd back Murray over Isner but we shall see.

50 aces from Isner in two matches so far - including 31 in his last match. When you have Isner's serve, slow courts aren't a problem.

Khachanov in 2 - like his game.
Tsonga in 3 - think Ramos is underrated.
Ferrer in 3 - looked a bit better recently.
Murray in 2 - think tiredness may catch up with Murray, Isner isn't the man to exploit it though.
Muller in 2 - obvious pick.
Del Po in 3 - Very close to call.
Stan in 3 - he's making life difficult for himself this week.
Cilic in 2 - obvious call.

Born Slippy wrote:50 aces from Isner in two matches so far - including 31 in his last match. When you have Isner's serve, slow courts aren't a problem.

Against players not recognised as particularly good returners of serve (Struff and Lopez) whereas Murray is one of the best in the business who has negated Isner's serve on far faster courts I may add.

Of the ones that are different to mine, you get odds of 16/5 (Tsonga) and 3/1 (Ferrer). Khachanov has started but he was slight underdog so I reckon a 2-0 win would be about 5/2. DP in three is 3/1. Let's see who does better!

Sorry missed Murray - 4/9

If Murray loses to Isner on this surface, then he should rest until the Aus Open

Andy's like all great players - they find a way to win, when been spectacularly average

perhaps not BS's best prediction there

Murray looked much sharper today, though to be fair Isner was quite severely diminished by a rather nasty looking blister on his right hand. Murray's block return is really superb, and he was aggressive whenever he had the chance. Straightforward win 6-1 6-3.

Wawrinka beaten badly by Zverev (the old one).

Born Slippy wrote:Wawrinka beaten badly by Zverev (the old one).

What the .....!!!!!????? 

Look if this carries on for much longer, I'm going to start having to agree with Hawkeye

Mind you even Andy decided that he'd better play like Isner for five minutes (ie poorly!) so maybe, in the absence of Fedal, it's all a big plot to give the crowd their money's worth 

Murray. The youngest of the semi finalists

Says it all really

Paris draw is out:

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/scores/current/paris/352/draws

Djokovic looks to have a tough draw:

R2 - Muller
R3 - Dimitrov
QF - Goffin or Cilic
SF - Wawrinka or Thiem

Andy has:

R2 - Verdasco
R3 - Pouille
QF - Berdych
SF - Nishikori or Raonic

Cilic won against Granollers, so a win over Zverev will see him overtake Berdych leading into Paris (by 10 points). If he could then win the final (Kei or Muller) then he would be in a very strong position with Berdych needing to make at least the SF in Paris to catch him.

Thiem has rather burned out in the second half of the season hasn't he? Some poor losses. Might be he played too much in the first half of the season, I seem to remember he played a lot of tournaments then. I wouldn't complain much if Berdych didn't make the WTF, he's played there a few times now without even doing much (don't think he's ever made a semi?), and would be good to have some new blood, though how "new" you would call guys like Cilic and Monfils... Goffin would be good, but he has a lot of work to do to make it doesn't he?

Ferrer withdraws, so Murray is through to the final. Looked like he was going to be playing Ivo, who led by a set and a break (and had break points for another break). However, Ivo threw in an awful game with several DFs to gift the break back. I think it's the first time JWT has broken him in something like 9 sets. Ivo now serving to reach a tiebreak.

Born Slippy wrote:Ferrer withdraws, so Murray is through to the final. Looked like he was going to be playing Ivo, who led by a set and a break (and had break points for another break). However, Ivo threw in an awful game with several DFs to gift the break back. I think it's the first time JWT has broken him in something like 9 sets. Ivo now serving to reach a tiebreak.

Sad to hear of withdrawals. Any reason given BS?

Leg injury I think.

Andy is apparently going to play an exho against Melzer.

Born Slippy wrote:

Andy is apparently going to play an exho against Melzer.

Good for the fans - bad for hawkeye.

Both Tsonga and Nishikori save match points and eventually reach their respective finals.

Nothing whatsoever to do with the higher echelons, which most of this forum appears to focus on, but any idea what the 'non medical' reasons are why Dan Evans has pulled out of the Paris qualifications?

From his Twitter account. Unfortunate although slightly surprising nothing could be sorted out!

Wow! That's a little bizarre. I don't ever recall Alistair Cook arriving for a tour minus a cricket bat, though Bob Willis did continue his innings after a break by walking to the wicket without a bat one time. Many thanks for the explanation

Seems like an incredibly lame excuse.  In the past Dan Evans has admitted not putting sufficient effort into his career. In the worst case scenario I am sure Paris sells similar type rackets to the ones he uses.

Murray takes the first set 6-3 against Tsonga in the final in Vienna. Is the winning run set to continue on into November?

Andy is at 21% first serves in in this set. Even for him, that's good going!

Putting himself under immense pressure with missed serve after missed serve

Yeah, that break was coming. Andy gifting it to Jo.

Another title in the bag for Andy. He now stands possibly one title away in Paris from the coveted world No 1 ranking.

I have been impressed with Murrays second half of the season.  He also had a pretty good first half of the season, getting to the Australian Open final, having an exceptional clay court season, winning Queens and Wimbledon, winning the Olympics gold medal.  

But it is the second half of the season I have been particularly impressed with.  He is clearly tired, he is playing a lot of tennis, but he is finding ways to win.  His work rate this season just seems to be at a higher level than past seasons.  Whether Lendl has anything to do with it I don't know - whether it is Jamie Delgado I don't know.  

I think it is probably Murray himself.  From Davis Cups, to Grand Slams, to Masters, to 500 tournaments - he just seems mentally to be in a good place and highly "switched on".  He must be thinking about "legacy".

With no DC final to worry about and an end-of-season break coming up, Murray is able to go flat out for the number one spot, knowing he may not get as good a chance as this again.
Having had to slug it out with others of the big four for so long, he praps deserves the fortune that has come his way in the dip in Djoko's form and the absences of Rafa and Roger.

There's no doubt that if he does finally make it to the dizzy heights, he will have done so the hard way and it will be much deserved.

A Brit, a Scot, at the very top of the modern tennis world ....still seems hard to believe how close we could be to it becoming a reality ...!!!!

Just a thought.  If Murray gets to number 1, he could become favorite for sports personality of the year.  Last year Davis Cup, this year Davis Cup Semi Final + Wimbledon + Olympic Gold Medal + ...  Personally I think Mo Farah double Olympic Gold is at the moment favorite, with double gold Max Whitlock, world record holder + gold medallist Adam Peaty, Laura Trott & Jason Kenny ... a lot to choose from.  But getting to No 1 and the longevity of his season would maybe make Murray favorite.

Djokovic wrote:I lost motivation after French Open win – but I’m finally recharged

From Reuters 9 hours ago.
http://www.eurosport.co.uk/tennis/djokovic-mentally-recharged-ahead-of-paris-masters_sto5932228/story.shtml#uk-yh-rf