Welsh team to face SA

First topic message reminder :

All Welsh fans know we are hostages of the coaches until 2019. The way in which the WRU have allowed Gatland yet another sabbatical and installed an incompetent like Howley as caretaker is beyond belief. Wales have been treading water for 3 years and despite their showings at the last two RWC it is clear they are now actually falling apart tactically and with basic skills. But they are still learning at every turn, ask Howley. My question is when will they stop learning and start performing?

What we need next week is to be soundly beaten by a poor SA. A RWC Lancaster moment, because although no English fan enjoyed that look at where they are now 1 year on. I don't want that to happen of course, but it may be what is required. A win will result in a 3/4 success for Howley and his troop of monkeys. A successful autumn, 3 x W. In truth it has been a catastrophe.

You know SA will raise their game next week. We know in Howley Wales don't have a coach capable of mapping out a game plan to beat them; a win will be down to the players sneaking it as was the case this week when all that was required was to pick and drive route 1 and create the spaces out wide whereas Wales repeatedly tried to go wide too early. SA will pin us back and attack our set piece.

Wales have the personnel no doubt and I hope to see Faletau return on the bench at least. But what they don't have is a clue about what to do behind the breakdown. How to distribute players in attack and what angles of attack they should use. How to read the defense and respond; they insisted on attacking around the breakdown v Jpaan who loaded their line. Their is no instinct to play what is in front of them. It is not instinctive because it flies in the face of everything in their DNA.

Can we win? Of course and we should with SA falling apart perhaps more than we are, but no side does the SH hoodoo dance like we do and it is so deeply entrenched in that DNA that i expect us to lose marginally again. I hear there are rumblings in the camp, may be the players will let that happen so that Howley finally gets his marching orders. He is done post RWC 2019 for sure.

Some sacred cows need to be sacrificed and other cows just need shooting.

Gethin -  Big game player and if fit he plays that simple.
Baldwin - superb carrying v japan, knew to go straight and did so repeatedly. Shame no one else read it.
Francis - excellent v Argentina, offers much more than Lee in the loose
AWJ - no explanations required - Capt.
Davies - Charteris offers nothing outside the line out but has a part to play in the final 3rd.
Warburton - Lydiate is dead to me now. Warburton can do the job and should.
Tipuric - I want to see some of his club form for Wales, he's only really impressed me once v Eng 2013 but i still think he needs to be our 7. He needs to lurk out wide and let Gethin and Warburton deal with the breakdown.
Moriarty - what a find, dynamic runner and excellent defender. Excellent stand in for Faletau.

Davis - Oh how we miss Webb, but Davis is equally sparky and is really the only choice.
Biggar - Sam was outstanding in his Japanese cameo but Biggar should at least start.
North - I don't really know why he's been anonymous for ages. Lacks aggression and is defensively suspect. Its him or Cuthbert and the latter is one of the cows that need shooting. I'd like to see Giles but that won't happen.
Roberts- because we need to win and the team has spent so long playing with this tactic that to change this week would be a mistake. But use him as a decoy and ask him to pass. Part of me hopes to see Scott back in for his footballing skills, pace and passing. Basic skills you expect in a centre and which Roberts does not possess.
JD2 - another who is creaking but the best option we have.
Half- Not a natural winger but in space he has some pace although tends to always end up on his face. Is excellent in defense and has the boot.
Liam - along with Faletau our only truly world class player.

bench
Smith, Owens, Lee, Charteris, Faletau, Lloyd, Davies, Williams

Others like Anscombe and Cuthbert are perhaps not up to this level.

Gwlad wrote:while i think this is the right stage for Sam Davies it can't be for Giles. He should have been started v Japan but clearly the camp has no real confidence as Giles was exactly what was needed to change the game v Japan but Howley is so scared of a loss he kept that idiot Cuffbert on.

As i said before, Edwards handling of the PC tells you everything. They are currently 2/3 this autumn and the W is everything. Win saturday and the perception of failure is there but has no substance in the WRU; 3/4 wins in the Autumn. Lose and I'll be gutted but pleased that there is no hiding it anymore. We are truly regressing and the results prove it.

Its hard to wish a side lose for the bigger picture but in this case I'd make an exception.

I understand this idea, but disagree. It's very easy to brand a loss to SA as acceptable: we've only beaten them twice in our history, remember! Don't be greedy, they're still a great team etc. full of world class etc. etc...particularly if the margin is in single figures. Then you can guarantee it was only accuracy and discipline at key moments that lost us the game. With that in mind, as I think SA are going to play with the shackles off (selection suggests so), if they win it will be hard for the public/media to keep the pressure up to force the WRU's hand (not selling out during home 6N games would be telling). The only way a loss may be beneficial in speeding up the process of regenerating the structures and personnel shaping the national side is if SA put 60 on us. I can't see that happening, but you never know.

Ultimately, this season is a right off: you can't get rid of Gatland's coaching team when he's not there: he comes back and it's a case of "oh, well, Rob had to step in in difficult circumstances etc., everything's fine now we've got the old gang back in their proper roles, let's focus on building towards RWC in 2019 etc.". We've just got the bide our time until after Japan. Three years. Nothing's going to change before then. They're not going to sack Gatland (unless Wales are extraordinarily bad, but he's too good a coach for that to happen), and therefore we're stuck with Howley and McBryde etc. for another 3 years. What this has done has scuppered the succession plan the WRU clearly hoped for in Howley. Which is good, I suppose, as he quite frankly hasn't had the experience as a backs coach, nevermind as a Head Coach, prior to joining Wales. The bad point is, if Dai Young doesn't fancy it/gets offered the England job/for other reasons is unavailable, then who!? We'd have to look abroad again, and as Gatland is proving, the desire to really improve Welsh rugby only goes so far until it becomes an audition for the job the foreign/Kiwi coach really wants. Which is fine, if that's the best option.

However, back to this weeken: I'd much rather Wales win and win it properly: with Liam Williams, Tipuric, and possibly even Sam Davies at the fore. Get these players standing out, saving a pretty dire Welsh team with their footballing ability, against what should be a relatively disorganised and inexperienced- but potent if we let them- opposition. It's telling that both Liam and Tipuric have for years been kept on the fringes of the team despite their incredible natural talent. Genuinely, Shane Williams would have been filling Lloyd Williams' squad place under Gatland, the man would barely have got a game. Let's get some saviours back in the Welsh game, some new Shanes, because right now we're way off the point of having a composed and talented team replicating their club form for the national team. We're back to '09/'10: throw it to Shane/Liam and hope for the best.

munkian wrote:“We’ve made just one change in the back-row. Sam (Warburton) picked up a bit of a stinger injury on Tuesday and isn’t quite ready so Dan comes in. Dan played particularly well against Japan so we are pleased he gets the opportunity again.

He did ? And if so wasn't that because they weren't exactly 6'6 and 18 stone ?

He scored a World Class try, remember?

Just like Jamie Roberts. The silky hands and feet he showed to get him over the try line make him a versatile option to bring on from #23.

If there's one "top" team Lydiate should do well against, other than the passive and turgid French of the last five/six years, it's South Africa. That said, their team is going to move the ball and look to play rugby, whilst also having a solid set piece. It's no good just having a (now too heavy, and too slow) gridiron style defensive forward. He needs to seriously adapt his game and be able to carry and pass like a modern back row forward should. It's embarrassing he still keeps getting picked. We have Tipuric, Warburton, James Davies, and Ellis Jenkins as openside options. It's time to start putting Sam at 6, as there's too much talent there to keep selecting Lydiate when he plays like a donkey.

Interestingly, some people suggesting that Sam isn't actually injured, and it's nice treatment/a story fed to the media for him to sit it out and look to get back up to match speed/fitness without the furore being dropped would obviously cause. I imagine this sort of thing happens perhaps a little more often than we anticipate, especially when the player is on board/not going to rock the boat with such a call. Does feel like the rugby injury equivalent of the headache just prior to marital "cwtshing": hard to diagnose, swiftly passing, but debilitating enough to impede upon the activity.

Hard to know if this could be true. In the past, even with a injury like this, I feel like the coaches would have taken a risk on him, given him time to prove his fitness. To rule him out more than two days before the game suggests that this 'theory' may have some basis to it. He's not on top form, played very little this season, probably not performing as they want on the field, and picks up a minor knock in the week: better to get him up and running for the 6Ns by stringing games together for the Blues (does that ever happen!?) than push him too far, too soon, when he's not even playing that well.

No9 wrote:The one thing that was a positive from the Japan game was Liam at 15 and Halfpenny on the wing... WHY change that back.. Guess the rest speak for itself, but would rather Moriaty play 6 instead of Lydiate (on current form) and Faletau take his No8 slot.

In all fairness, they got what they were looking for: enough errors from Liam to justify moving the safe option back to the 'better' position. Liam's doubled up error of throwing the ball away after a break, and then having to race back only to overshoot the tackle, should have given Japan the draw. I remember there being a few errors as well (not least the sin binning) prior to that that had me thinking in the back of my mind that Liam had shot himself in the foot in this game. The sad/completely xxxxing mental thing about that is Halfpenny can offer practically nothing in way of an attacking threat for about two seasons, and Liam Williams makes a few mistakes as well as plenty of good plays, and that's enough to effectively drop him.

Why stay in Wales when you're treated like this, when there's mounds more money to be made playing in London? The WRU reaps what it sows.

What are you talking about put Warby at 6 it was stated on another thread that Kingy and Lyds had similar stats last week making 8 carries Lyds hit 39 rocks Kingy 32 Lyds 10 tackles Kingy 12 Warby 25rucks 8carries and made 3 tackles and missed 3 and you want Warby to take the 6 shirt get real

I do wonder if the only stinger Warbs has received this week is that he is off the pace and arguably 4/5 in the back row hierarchy right now. For me Moriarty has been our back row find of the year, with I hope Faletau about to make an impact with his usual solid performance off the bench this time. Tipuric has to take this chance now and claim the future at 7.

I would like to see a Moriarty, Tipuric Faletau back row moving forward with Sam and lids offering the bench impact.

irnbrew wrote:What are you talking about put Warby at 6 it was stated on another thread that Kingy and Lyds had similar stats last week making 8 carries Lyds hit 39 rocks Kingy 32 Lyds 10 tackles Kingy 12 Warby 25rucks 8carries and made 3 tackles and missed 3 and you want Warby to take the 6 shirt get real

That's a lot of abbreviations.

(apart from King, where you're actually extending his name)

miaow wrote:

irnbrew wrote:What are you talking about put Warby at 6 it was stated on another thread that Kingy and Lyds had similar stats last week making 8 carries Lyds hit 39 rocks Kingy 32 Lyds 10 tackles Kingy 12 Warby 25rucks 8carries and made 3 tackles and missed 3 and you want Warby to take the 6 shirt get real

That's a lot of abbreviations.

(apart from King, where you're actually extending his name)

Yeah, are you English ?

If this team can get it's mojo together we could see a brilliant display. I am saddened that Liam and Leigh have reverted back to their wrong positions.

This is a must win for Wales surely. SA are a mess at the minute and are missing some big players.

Who let the football lad in? Attack him!

Just read that Wales are favourites for this game. Have any bookies been watching them? with the state SA are in at the moment what margin of Welsh victory would constitute a redemption? I reckon if they can win by 10 clear points that will go a long way to making up for the dross of this autumn

mckay1402 wrote:Just read that Wales are favourites for this game.  Have any bookies been watching them?  with the state SA are in at the moment what margin of Welsh victory would constitute a redemption?  I reckon if they can win by 10 clear points that will go a long way to making up for the dross of this autumn

Disagree.

uncle_nigel wrote:

mckay1402 wrote:Just read that Wales are favourites for this game.  Have any bookies been watching them?  with the state SA are in at the moment what margin of Welsh victory would constitute a redemption?  I reckon if they can win by 10 clear points that will go a long way to making up for the dross of this autumn

Disagree.

well that is a strong argument and well put.

mckay1402 wrote:

uncle_nigel wrote:

mckay1402 wrote:Just read that Wales are favourites for this game.  Have any bookies been watching them?  with the state SA are in at the moment what margin of Welsh victory would constitute a redemption?  I reckon if they can win by 10 clear points that will go a long way to making up for the dross of this autumn

Disagree.

well that is a strong argument and well put.  

Thanks.

Just in case you forgot what that was, go back and read this thread as well as some others - I assumed I wouldn't need to repeat that as you'd read it already.

uncle_nigel wrote:

mckay1402 wrote:

uncle_nigel wrote:

mckay1402 wrote:Just read that Wales are favourites for this game.  Have any bookies been watching them?  with the state SA are in at the moment what margin of Welsh victory would constitute a redemption?  I reckon if they can win by 10 clear points that will go a long way to making up for the dross of this autumn

Disagree.

well that is a strong argument and well put.  

Thanks.

Just in case you forgot what that was, go back and read this thread as well as some others - I assumed I wouldn't need to repeat that as you'd read it already.

You assumed wrong but I have read it now. I don't agree necessarily. I can understand why you'd feel like that but I would always want the win no matter who the coaches are. I think the players need to pull the thumbs out and take responsibility for the performances.

I think some teams can achieve a 10 point win and still play clueless, awful rugby. If they won by 20 points then you'd assume they had played a lot better than previously, which would go some way to making up for the dross this autumn. I can see neither a 20 or 10 point win for Wales.

uncle_nigel wrote:I think some teams can achieve a 10 point win and still play clueless, awful rugby. If they won by 20 points then you'd assume they had played a lot better than previously, which would go some way to making up for the dross this autumn. I can see neither a 20 or 10 point win for Wales.

30 Points ? I like your thinking

munkian wrote:

uncle_nigel wrote:I think some teams can achieve a 10 point win and still play clueless, awful rugby. If they won by 20 points then you'd assume they had played a lot better than previously, which would go some way to making up for the dross this autumn. I can see neither a 20 or 10 point win for Wales.

30 Points ? I like your thinking

Thinking of this forum you are more likely to get 30 'What's the' points...

Italian rugby has been based around their pack for years and it had to pay off eventually that is why they beat a lamentable SA who tbh are in worse trouble than any side i think i've ever seen. I just dont think the Welsh pack has the same ability at the moment so i dont expect to see them dominate QED it will be a much more competitive game. Wales could win by 30 or lose by 2.