Possible Federer-Murray Clash in Dubai/ Djoko in Acapulco

First topic message reminder :

Draw is out for Dubai and Murray and Federer could meet in the semis. Stan the Man is the top seed in the other half of the draw. There are more top-tenners at Acapulco than Dubai, with Djoko taking a WC in the Mexican tournament. Of course, the big imponderable at the AO this year was whether Rafa or Rog would have got passed Murray or Djoko. At least Dubai offers the possibility of a Rog-Andy clash.
You can see why Djoko wanted to get some points on the board by playing Acapulco. He's got stacks to defend over the next few weeks, while Murray has very little to do to stay number one for a while. Andy, incidentally, is already a long way up the list of number one longevity, with Wilander (20 weeks in total at the top) the next target.

Novak is playing a lot better than at the end of last year. Losing to an on-fire Krygios in a match where Novak faced one break point (when he played a poor final game) is a result that could happen to anyone. He's still clear favourite on the slow treacle coming up at IW and Miami.

Ok maybe I am being a bit harsh on Kyrgrios but why is he never or rarely a feature in the 2nd week of slams? Surely if he was that good, he would be.

For me, even a Novak at 70% should handily dispose of a player like Kyrgios. I see in the reviews of the match that Kyrgios served lights out but one thing Djokovic always does well is return serve. For me on paper, Djokovic should be a nitemare match up for such a player.

Anyway, regardless of the opponent Novak has become a shadow of the player he once was and I think CC is right that he has lost a lot of motivation. Ever since he won the French open, his standard has dropped and Becker did say he had significantly dropped his level of training.

I suppose I thought after he won Doha ending Murrays winning run in the final that he may have turned a corner. Clearly that is not the case. For me there is no way he is favourite for Indian Wells and Miami regardless of his track record there. We could have said the same about the oz open and we know what happened there.

As a fan it is see such a massive drop in his level but I suppose it had to happen some time. I just didn't expect it to be so soon after reaching the pinnacle and winning the French Open.

slashermcguirk wrote:Ok maybe I am being a bit harsh on Kyrgrios but why is he never or rarely a feature in the 2nd week of slams? Surely if he was that good, he would be.

For me, even a Novak at 70% should handily dispose of a player like Kyrgios. I see in the reviews of the match that Kyrgios served lights out but one thing Djokovic always does well is return serve. For me on paper, Djokovic should be a nitemare match up for such a player.

Anyway, regardless of the opponent Novak has become a shadow of the player he once was and I think CC is right that he has lost a lot of motivation. Ever since he won the French open, his standard has dropped and Becker did say he had significantly dropped his level of training.

I suppose I thought after he won Doha ending Murrays winning run in the final that he may have turned a corner. Clearly that is not the case. For me there is no way he is favourite for Indian Wells and Miami regardless of his track record there. We could have said the same about the  oz open and we know what happened there.

As a fan it is see such a massive drop in his level but I suppose it had to happen some time. I just didn't expect it to be so soon after reaching the pinnacle and winning the French Open.

Spot on post.

The talent is still hiding there somewhere but being successful at anything is about the whole package. Motivation is a key part of that package (especially for Novak) and he has admitted he lost some of that after winning RG and found it hard getting fired up to train and practice and once you don't do those your standards will dip. Once they dip you begin losing matches you used to win and then when that happens the confidence and self-belief erodes away - like I said earlier all like a snowball effect. The longer it goes on the tougher it will get.

I just find it odd that he felt so flat after RG. Okay he had strived so hard for that tournament win but surely his mind could start focussing on even bigger things like over-hauling Sampras and Nadal's slam haul and then reeling in Roger's. Certainly not an impossible goal at that time but looking so now.

I think Djoko had suffered some injuries last season and that might have affected his game and his mindset after winning the FO. I remember seeing Djoko feeling agitated on court during the clay season, perhaps he felt he had to win it last year before his injuries set him back. I think injuries had finally caught up with him, after all the relentless pursuit of titles, slams, catching up with Fedal, etc.

Maybe his body and mind are telling him enough is enough?

Bit off topic so I apologise but I think Wimbledon will be interesting this year due to a number of factors:

Federers huge confidence boost from winning Australian Open
Nadal showing a good return to form and if he wins the French, could get huge confidence
Murray consistently performs well there and in the mix
Djokovic a real unknown quantity, will know more following the French (you never know with Novak)
Wawrinka with his first opportunity to complete career grand slam (unlikely given his track record on grass but a big motivation this time around)
If he avoids injury between now and then, Del Potro could make a big run and should have built up some ranking points by then and possibly a seeding
Dimitrov playing better again and if he performs to potential he could spring a surprise or two

If all the above bring something to the party, could be a great tournament. French Open tends to be more predictable with less 'real contenders'

BLBoy. The fitness levels of Djoko and Murray as they move into their 30s are going to be a key factor. Not everyone is going to be able to compete at the very top at 35 like Fed.

slashermcguirk wrote:Ok maybe I am being a bit harsh on Kyrgrios but why is he never or rarely a feature in the 2nd week of slams? Surely if he was that good, he would be.

For me, even a Novak at 70% should handily dispose of a player like Kyrgios. I see in the reviews of the match that Kyrgios served lights out but one thing Djokovic always does well is return serve. For me on paper, Djokovic should be a nitemare match up for such a player.

Anyway, regardless of the opponent Novak has become a shadow of the player he once was and I think CC is right that he has lost a lot of motivation. Ever since he won the French open, his standard has dropped and Becker did say he had significantly dropped his level of training.

I suppose I thought after he won Doha ending Murrays winning run in the final that he may have turned a corner. Clearly that is not the case. For me there is no way he is favourite for Indian Wells and Miami regardless of his track record there. We could have said the same about the  oz open and we know what happened there.

As a fan it is see such a massive drop in his level but I suppose it had to happen some time. I just didn't expect it to be so soon after reaching the pinnacle and winning the French Open.

Think Kyrgios struggles with motivation over the course of a slam. Occasionally he will be up for the fight of a tough match, like last night for example. But more often than not, as soon as it becomes tough he gives up and starts tanking.

Poor Kyrgios............motivation a big issue. How long is he on the tour?? Imagine playing tennis for a living and being in your early 20s and making as much money as these guys are and struggling for motivation. It really is pathetic. It would be impossible to criticise the top 4 for motivation given what they have already achieved, you would expect motivation to wane after being on tour that long and having won so much.

Then you get this guy who decides to start tanking matches when he goes a set down. It really is laughable, Tomic is the same. If I got a ticket to see either of them play, I would drop kick into the nearest bin. I would even feel guilty selling it

Rant over

Murray's serve has gone AWOL V Pouille but has enough tricks in the locker to win the first set 7-5.

The wheels fell off for Pouille in the second set and Murray wins 7-5 6-1 to reach the final in Dubai where he will play Fernando Verdasco. A patchy display by Andy but still far too good for Lucas.

Pouille seems to really struggle against Andy. The six games he won tonight were the most he's managed against Murray in their last four meetings. That lead at the top of the rankings is stretching, with power to add at IW and Miami.

sirfredperry wrote: That lead at the top of the rankings is stretching, with power to add at IW and Miami.

The lead currently stands at 1,935 points and should he win the final tomorrow Andy will have a lead of over 2,000 points going to IW and Miami with precious little points to defend at those two tournies whilst Novak has a shed load of points to defend. It is not out of the question that Murray could have a lead of around 3,000 points by the time the clay court season comes around.

Andy Murray, despite running out of steam at the US Open, is continuing with his post French Open 2016 form in finding ways to grab victory from certain defeat. It is something that has characterised the number one ranked players of the recent past. I assume the spirit of Lendl is with him.

No name Bertie wrote:Andy Murray, despite running out of steam at the US Open, is continuing with his post French Open 2016 form in finding ways to grab victory from certain defeat.  It is something that has characterised the number one ranked players of the recent past.  I assume the spirit of Lendl is with him.

A tad unfair. I think he went through much of October/November last year where he did not drop a set. Sure here and there we have seen narrow squeaks like V Kohli but the key is he is winning them.

Somewhat annoying that Andy has made every final (14 tournaments) since Monte Carlo last year, except the last two slams!

Surprised that Kyrgios did not beat Querry who will now presumably succumb to Rafa giving the Spaniard a rare hard-court triumph.
Clips I've seen indicate Verdasco is playing well, but I think Murray will have too much for him in the Dubai final.
Am looking forward to having all the big beasts together for the next few weeks for IW and Miami - two tournaments that could define Djoko's season.

Unfair to say that Querrey would succumb to Rafa thus handing him a rare HC triumph. Querrey did serve and play well to beat Kyrgios. Kygrios had some elbow issue and called a MTO after the second set. I doubt he would beat Rafa even if he beat Querrey to reach the final, with his elbow issue. He probably hurt it having to serve 25 aces to beat Djoko!

It's a lot to ask of Kygrios to beat Djoko, then Querrey followed by Rafa. He just couldn't string two great matches one after another, more so if he has to do three. Querrey did serve well so I don't think he would succumb to Rafa, I expect him to play well and Rafa has to earn the victory.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

No name Bertie wrote:Andy Murray, despite running out of steam at the US Open, is continuing with his post French Open 2016 form in finding ways to grab victory from certain defeat.  It is something that has characterised the number one ranked players of the recent past.  I assume the spirit of Lendl is with him.

A tad unfair. I think he went through much of October/November last year where he did not drop a set. Sure here and there we have seen narrow squeaks like V Kohli but the key is he is winning them.

I agree with NNB. He's got more snap in his play now. Apart from the O2 final, I'm struggling to remember a match during the Autumn that resembled his May to July form

I think the Aus defeat has done him a favour. Hopefully, he now takes proper breaks and manages his schedule properly. As a fan I'm still hacked off with that ridiculous schedule he had before the 2015 US Open

It's a tricky balance, but as he'll be full on for the dirt and grass seasons, he simply has to keep his hardcourt summer schedule to an absolute minimum

banbrotam wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

No name Bertie wrote:Andy Murray, despite running out of steam at the US Open, is continuing with his post French Open 2016 form in finding ways to grab victory from certain defeat.  It is something that has characterised the number one ranked players of the recent past.  I assume the spirit of Lendl is with him.

A tad unfair. I think he went through much of October/November last year where he did not drop a set. Sure here and there we have seen narrow squeaks like V Kohli but the key is he is winning them.

he simply has to keep his hardcourt summer schedule to an absolute minimum

I agree with that. Okay do the Masters 1000's on hard but he has a healthy enough lead in the rankings just now that there is no call for 250's or 500's.

Murray V Verdasco about to get underway in the final in Dubai.

First set to Murray 6-3. Again Murray's serve not functioning too well and tad too many unforced errors but still got the job done in that set.

Andy Murray wins his 45th singles title beating Fernando Verdasco 6-3 6-2 in the final. A getting better sort of a performance from Andy. 500 points in the bank and now over 2000 points clear of Djokovic.

(Can you hear the drums) Fernando had a shocking match serving-wise, if the official stats are anything to go by. Not sure if Andy has been in scintillating form this week, but as CC has remarked, it's been good enough.

sirfredperry wrote:(Can you hear the drums) Fernando had a shocking match serving-wise, if the official stats are anything to go by. Not sure if Andy has been in scintillating form this week, but as CC has remarked, it's been good enough.

I'd describe his form as patchy throughout. He had spells where he had issues with his serve and hitting not as cleanly on some ground strokes resulting in a few too many unforced errors. He did have moments of great play and magical shots as well and was mentally strong at key times. He'll look to boot it up a level next week at IW.

With Djoko having 2,000 points to defend over the next four weeks (and Murray only a handful), it will be interesting to see how the rankings look in a month's time.
Of course Murray is going to need a big lead as he won practically everything in the last part of last year. Also, we saw in 2016 how seemingly impregnable leads at the top can just disappear. Remember it also happening in 2009 when Rafa suddenly lost around 4,000pts as well as top spot.

sirfredperry wrote:With Djoko having 2,000 points to defend over the next four weeks (and Murray only a handful), it will be interesting to see how the rankings look in a month's time.
  Of course Murray is going to need a big lead as he won practically everything in the last part of last year. Also, we saw in 2016 how seemingly impregnable leads at the top can just disappear. Remember it also happening in 2009 when Rafa suddenly lost around 4,000pts as well as top spot.

Well at Indian Wells Djokovic has 1000 points to defend whilst Murray has 45 to defend. At Miami Djokovic has 1000 points to defend whilst Murray has again 45 points to defend.

I don't think it is unfair or unrealistic to presume that Murray's lead will extend by a minimum of 500 points so going into the clay court season his lead would stand at around 2,500 points. I think the bigger question will be whether Novak can defend the No 2 spot going further forward.

Well, three of the Big Four have all had spells out of the top four so it could well be Djoko's turn soon.

Sam Querrey has beaten Rafa Nadal in straight sets to win the title in Acapulco. Given that he has shown he has the big weapons to beat the big guns before it is not a huge upset. It is the biggest title (to date) of his career. For Rafa it will be frustrating as it just kills a bit of momentum he had built up but he will head to IW with more hope than others in the top ten.

Well I was wrong about Rafa beating Sam Q. From the stats it appears both served well, but Q hit 19 aces to Rafa's one. Looks like it may have been down to the BPs. Q saved all six of his and took one out of two on the Rafa serve.

sirfredperry wrote:Well I was wrong about Rafa beating Sam Q. From the stats it appears both served well, but Q hit 19 aces to Rafa's one. Looks like it may have been down to the BPs. Q saved all six of his and took one out of two on the Rafa serve.
 

Although I never watched it but am sure some posters did then those stats suggest Querrey served the better of the two and played the big points better which normally ensures you win a match. Querrey recovering in the ranks now after somewhat of a dip in the second half of last year.

Sam played very well and served very well but to me Rafa played a lousy match. He came into the match with a counterpuncher mentality, unlike his match vs Cilic in the SF.

Despite Sam's good play, he only had one or two BP opportunities and he took one. Rafa had six but failed to take any! Had Rafa played with more aggression from the get go, not unlike the Cilic match, he might just impose his game on Sam and not allowing Sam the to serve or hit so freely without missing.

Rafa was one dimensional in this match, going CC most if not all the time, stay behind the baseline most of the time and trying to overpower Sam. Sam was the one who took risks and hitting some excellent DTL shots whilst Rafa was just contented to hit into the court within safe margins and CC.

Sam deserved the victory, Rafa didn't. I'm disappointed with Rafa's performance in the final, I expected him to play better than his SF when it mattered.

Been watching a few clips from the Murray final. Andy seemed to be hitting well and serving big. Funny how certain match-ups are terrible for certain players. Murray is now 13-1 against Fernando.
Nadal. apparently, had most of his BPs in one Sam Q service game, but the American saved three of them with aces. Seem to remember Fed getting out of trouble with a number of aces in a key game at the AO final.
You will all no doubt recall Rosol's devastating serving against Rafa in that Wimbledon upset. OK, there's sometimes little you can do when a guy is banging down aces. But you would think that Murray - and Djoko, too, at his best - would at least get some of these bullets back into play.
Even in Rafa's pomp years Tsonga absolutely blitzed him at the AO in 08 (mind you, JWT pretty much did the same to Fed at Wimbledon from two sets down a few years later) .
Is Rafa, a great player, not that great a returner or am I doing him an injustice?

Nope, Rafa is also a great returner; watch how he dismantled Raonic's Or Isner's or Karlovic's serves. He had no problems with them. The problem lie in Rafa's mindset. He didn't make much adjustments when returning Sam's serves or Fed's serves in the AO final, that told me he was nervous when in a final. He hardly varied his return positions!

Tsonga wasn't serving aces to beat Rafa at AO2008; he was playing the S&V game to beat Rafa and back then Rafa wasn't the player he was later on, on the HCs. Rafa had no such problem with Tsonga later on. The Wimbledon 2012 match vs Arielle, Rafa leveled the match at two sets all before they stopped for 30 or 40 minutes to close the roof. When they resumed play Rosol was serving without missing and I think not even a Djoko or Murray could return those serves. Do note that Rafa did beat Rosol at Wimbledon in 2014 even when Rosol was serving and hitting hard!

The Djoko now had problems returning Kygrios' bombing serves too, lost in straight sets. Both Rafa and Djoko arent the same players they used to be, now.

*Rosol, not Arielle!

I think Federer was the best returner of the power server, or at least he always seemed to beat them without too much effort. This was one of the factors that allowed him to reach so many grand slam finals on the faster surfaces.

No name Bertie wrote:I think Federer was the best returner of the power server, or at least he always seemed to beat them without too much effort.  This was one of the factors that allowed him to reach so many grand slam finals on the faster surfaces.

No it is widely accepted that the best returners of serve today are Murray and Djokovic. Federer is a very good returner but not in their class. Federer is a better server and his strength is his aggressive shot play so gets on top in a rally before it gets a real chance to develop.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

No name Bertie wrote:I think Federer was the best returner of the power server, or at least he always seemed to beat them without too much effort.  This was one of the factors that allowed him to reach so many grand slam finals on the faster surfaces.

No it is widely accepted that the best returners of serve today are Murray and Djokovic. Federer is a very good returner but not in their class. Federer is a better server and his strength is his aggressive shot play so gets on top in a rally before it gets a real chance to develop.

So would you say a) a single break of serve was more decisive for Federer than for Murray or Djokovic in taking a set. b) having returned the serve Federer was more likely to win the point than Murray and Djokovic?

I think a) but not too sure about b). Whatever the case, Federer always seemed to beat the power servers. It was the grinders, superfit returners that he had difficulty with. He had most difficulty with Nadal.

Definitely A for me. If Federer breaks serve (watching as a neutral) you tend to feel it is all but set over but that isn't quite the case with Murray and Djokovic. They both have their serve broken more often but it is counter-balanced as well by the fact they can generally break serve more often as well.

How does one upvote or downvote a comment?  I see those green lines or red lines elsewhere, but there doesn't seem to be any way for me to add to them.

No name Bertie wrote:How does one upvote or downvote a comment?  I see those green lines or red lines elsewhere, but there doesn't seem to be any way for me to add to them.

You click on the little plus or minus bar to the right of the box the post appears in.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

No name Bertie wrote:How does one upvote or downvote a comment?  I see those green lines or red lines elsewhere, but there doesn't seem to be any way for me to add to them.

You click on the little plus or minus bar to the right of the box the post appears in.

Okay - but I don't get this plus or minus bar on my laptop.  Maybe it only works on a smart phone or some other format I am not accessing.

ps I have just seen the following thread
https://www.606v2.com/t65153-voting

So there seems to be some complex formula over who and what this +/- thing appears for.

No name Bertie wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

No name Bertie wrote:How does one upvote or downvote a comment?  I see those green lines or red lines elsewhere, but there doesn't seem to be any way for me to add to them.

You click on the little plus or minus bar to the right of the box the post appears in.

Okay - but I don't get this plus or minus bar on my laptop.  Maybe it only works on a smart phone or some other format I am not accessing.

ps I have just seen the following thread
https://www.606v2.com/t65153-voting

So there seems to be some complex formula over who and what this +/- thing appears for.

I shouldn't see why it isn't appearing on your laptop as it shows on all equipment I access it on.

Murray has now broken serve in more than 120 successive matches. It's just as well, as he probably loses serve more often than any of the other Big 4.
Good to see brother Jamie taking the Acapulco doubles with B Soares. They almost went out in the opening round, too.

For me the sense of invincibility that Novak had, has now gone. Like Rafa before him, he's now seen as great - but beatable

Such a mindset can make such a difference to players like this, who largely depend on their impregnable reputation

Incidentally, that's not to insult their game!! Clearly, they are astonishingly talented players - but their mental strength is actually their biggest strength and once that wanes slightly, we have a more interesting rivalry

I'll stick my neck out and say that I can't see Novak (or Rafa) winning a slam this year

CaledonianCraig wrote:

No name Bertie wrote:I think Federer was the best returner of the power server, or at least he always seemed to beat them without too much effort.  This was one of the factors that allowed him to reach so many grand slam finals on the faster surfaces.

No it is widely accepted that the best returners of serve today are Murray and Djokovic. Federer is a very good returner but not in their class. Federer is a better server and his strength is his aggressive shot play so gets on top in a rally before it gets a real chance to develop.

The Murray and Federer mindset seem totally different when it comes to serve. It's clear that Murray see his returning form as the factor for how well he's playing and Roger his serve.

They can both play all aspects of the game to an 8 out of 10 standard, that they are still very effective at delivering their so called 'weak' shots. But if Roger gets broken, he's often not the same in a set, whereas if Murray doesn't break - his game doesn't have the same verve

The latter stages of the Dubai event were classic Murray. You could almost take the final as a summation of his career. Dozy start with no attention to his serve (note, that the returning part was still decent) starts to feel into the match and then just flicks a button and really wins with ease

It's probably the reason Murray's game isn't popular as it should be. I mean his return is amazing, it has to be up there with the best ever and who the hell cares about the quality of the  serve anyway, as long as you get by  

But the serve is still the seen as the key shot. It's the only one where you have total control - it sets the point up and hence it does look terrible when it's just placed into court.

Finally, it's significant that when Federer plays Murray and the latter realises that the former is serving like a demon - then the outcome is always inevitable.

Banb. Brave of you to predict neither Djoko nor Rafa winning a slam this year. I would never rule out Rafa for the French and Djoko may well be back on form later in the season.

banbrotam wrote:

I'll stick my neck out and say that I can't see Novak (or Rafa) winning a slam this year

I will have to disagree on that purely as I see Rafa as a very warm favourite for RG.

struggling to understand why Nadal has to be fave for RG. Granted he isn't clay GOAT but he hasn't won a slam since 2014. he won Barcelona and Monaco last year but not much else. plus he too is getting old. he is up there with other contenders but not more so.

If neither Rafa nor Djoko are going to win another Slam this year, you have to look at who could. Certainly Rog would be a possibility for Wimbledon, while you would think Murray would have a good chance at either Wimbledon or the USO.
Then there's Stan who has already won the French and the USO. And could del Po manage a Slam? If this is neck sticking-out time, then let me predict that no one outside the six I've mentioned in this posting will win a Slam this year. Admittedly, this is not such a courageous forecast as that of the battling, brave banbrotam.

coolpixel wrote:struggling to understand why Nadal has to be fave for RG. Granted he isn't clay GOAT but he hasn't won a slam since 2014. he won Barcelona and Monaco last year but not much else. plus he too is getting old.  he is up there with other contenders but not  more so.

I am assuming that "isn't" is a typo for "is"!

I'd think that Djoko's relative fall from grace is probably the reason why so many make Nadal favourite since Djoko is the man who has beaten him most consistently on clay in recent years.  I guess Murray and Wawrinka are the other two with the best chance of going all the way at RG, and I can understand why not many are ready to make them favourites vs. Nadal over Bo5 on clay.

I'd put him among the top 4 contenders at this stage - but this year we need to see everyone's form on clay before putting one above the others (and even then Stan is much less predictable than any of the other top players).