Madrid Masters 2017

First topic message reminder :

A couple of matches started Sunday, but most of the action gets underway tomorrow.

Draw: http://www.protennislive.com/posting/2017/1536/mds.pdf

Nadal is favourite once again, although apparently he skipped his pre-tournament press conference today due to an ear infection so it's possible he may withdraw or lose early. If he does, it's wide open with Djokovic & Murray lacking momentum, Wawrinka inconsistent, Nishikori only just arriving on clay. Thiem is coming in with momentum and could be in a good position for his first Masters final or even title. If Nadal is fit to play, he could be leaving Madrid in first place in the race.

Guest82 wrote:Shame Thiem is such a bottler. Playing really well, until it matters.

Unfair on him (& Nadal) to call him a bottler losing the first set 10-8 in a tie-breaker. He is making fantastic progress and may end up being a grand slam winner sometime in the next five years. The more experience he gets in the top end of tournaments the better for him.

Oh he's obviously facing an uphill battle, but he's giving Rafa all he can handle...gets set point and rolls a backhand in when he should go for it.

Then shanks a forehand and then misses a ball he makes 9/10 times to lose the set.

It's frustrating as he has the game, but not yet the mental strength.

He is giving Rafa more of a match than the world No.2. could manage yesterday at any rate

Sadly for the game of tennis I think Thiem is the biggest challenger to Nadal on clay at the moment. I am a massive Thiem fan, but he's not quite ready to beat Rafa, especially at RG, yet.

No shame in that as Rafa is the best ever on the surface. It just makes tennis a bit too predictable

Guest82 wrote:Shame Thiem is such a bottler. Playing really well, until it matters.

He has been playing about as well as he can I think.  It was not a bad set from him; better than in Barcelona.

Guest82 wrote:Sadly for the game of tennis I think Thiem is the biggest challenger to Nadal on clay at the moment.  I am a massive Thiem fan, but he's not quite ready to beat Rafa, especially at RG, yet.

No shame in that as Rafa is the best ever on the surface. It just makes tennis a bit too predictable

The game of tennis has only just got Rafa back after an even more dominant and lengthy period of Djokovic and a flourish from Murray.  With Rafa, in my opinion, it is good to see him back again after another injury / breakdown.  With Rafa nowadays we just don't know how long he is going to last - that in itself adds further uncertainty to the current period of tennis - predictable it is not.

Anyway - well done to Rafa for another tournament win (7-6 6-4) - the current benchmark standard in men's clay court tennis (even though he is nowhere near as good as peak - Rafa Nadal).  And well played Dominic Thiem another step in the right direction.

Certainly Rafa is not predictable plagued with injury as his career has been. Every match he gets through without further injury is always a relief. No one knows how long his career will last but certainly not as long as Fed imo.. so summerblues you have something to look forward to but hopefully not yet

Congratulations to Nadal, a good win against Thiem, and given his form over the claycourt season surely Rafa's now favourite for Roland Garros. Currently, my order for most likely winners is:

1. Nadal - yes, he's not the dominant force of yesteryear but his claycourt season results speak for themselves, and in my opinion only an (in-form) Djokovic would start favourite against him at Roland Garros.
2. Wawrinka - if he brings his claycourt A game.
3. Djokovic - OK, maybe an exit in 1st week still the most likely, but he has been imperious at Roland Garros in previous years.
4. Thiem - Has the game but does he have the self-belief to win? Nadal's win certainly gives a mental edge should they meet at Roland Garros.
5. Murray - ought to be higher, but having a poor claycourt season, and poor year in general.
6. Zverev - Maybe a year or 2 too soon to go all the way?
7. Federer - Despite his triumphs so far this year, I do think its a bit of a stretch he could win Roland Garros at his age, but...stranger things have happened.
8. Nishikori - Decent on the clay but its not his best surface.

Zverev and Kei? What about Goffin? He reached SF at MC and QF at Madrid, both times stopped by Rafa. He beat Thiem and Djoko at MC and Raonic at Madrid. I think he's in better position right now than Kei or Zverev to win on clay.

Goffin is in the opposite half of the draw from Rafa at Rome, so he may progress further in the draw and may meet Rafa in the final, if both get there. Goffin has Cilic and Stan to deal with in that quarter before meeting anyone in Murray's quarter.

Im not convinced that even an on form Djokovic would start favourite at RG this year.. Rafa (albeit not the Rafa of yesteryear given his age) is on top form.. and forgetting not that he is an even bigger force to be reckoned with over 5 sets.. However nothing can be taken for granted; I'm hoping that he isn't asking too much of himself with such a crammed schedule .

MrInvisible wrote:Congratulations to Nadal, a good win against Thiem, and given his form over the claycourt season surely Rafa's now favourite for Roland Garros.  Currently, my order for most likely winners is:

1. Nadal - yes, he's not the dominant force of yesteryear but his claycourt season results speak for themselves, and in my opinion only an (in-form) Djokovic would start favourite against him at Roland Garros.
2. Wawrinka - if he brings his claycourt A game.  
3. Djokovic - OK, maybe an exit in 1st week still the most likely, but he has been imperious at Roland Garros in previous years.
4. Thiem - Has the game but does he have the self-belief to win?  Nadal's win certainly gives a mental edge should they meet at Roland Garros.
5. Murray - ought to be higher, but having a poor claycourt season, and poor year in general.
6. Zverev - Maybe a year or 2 too soon to go all the way?
7. Federer - Despite his triumphs so far this year, I do think its a bit of a stretch he could win Roland Garros at his age, but...stranger things have happened.
8. Nishikori - Decent on the clay but its not his best surface.

I think it would be something like this:

Nadal - obviously pretty nailed on to win it. Be very surprised if he doesn't. Injury is the most likely barrier.
------Massive gap-----
Federer - He should cruise to quarter finals, then who knows. A kind draw or a couple of genius performances and he could win it. For once has some mental edge on Rafa.
Thiem - probably the second best player on clay at the moment. Has the game to beat anyone (even Nadal) but also a bit unpredictable. Could easily crash out in an early round.
Goffin - Arguably been better than Thiem on clay, been unfortunate to run into Rafa a few times. I don't think he has the game to beat Nadal though, especially over five sets.
Djokovic/Murray/Stan - depends on them finding form we know they are capable of. Doesn't look likely at the moment.
Nishikori - Unlikely his body will hold up.

Not really putting anyone else in the conversation.
Djokovic/Murray/Wawrinka

The reality is that with such a convincing renaissance from the very start of the clay swing (and to give due credit, let's not forget how well he performed at the AO too), Rafa is about as clear a favourite for this upcoming RG as he was in his early/mid twenties ; not many would have thought this six/eight months ago.

For reasons already outlined by others, it's very hard to see who will present a serious threat to the clay maestro. It would most likely need Rafa himself to drop significantly below this current hot form for someone else to go all the way & take the title.

Would agree that - despite his unexpected, but hugely impressive, start to the season - Federer at 36 will inevitably find seven clay matches a challenge too far. That said, worth remembering that he does go into RG with a record of more matches won there than anybody else (AFAIK ....?) - other than a certain Rafael Nadal.

Well, lets scrub Federer from that list.  Agreed, Goffin was a serious omission on my part.  I don't quite think he's a contender to go all the way, but certainly capable of progressing to the quarters or semis.  For other players not mentioned, Monfils, Tsonga or Pouille could make another decent run, and maybe keeping an eye on the other Spaniards - Bautista Agut, Carreno Busta or surprise Monte Carlo finalist Ramos Vinolas.  I doubt either could win it (though Carreno Busta possibly future contender?) but 1 of them could be a surprise semi-finalist or even finalist.

I might take nishikori off too
I don't think his wrist is gonna be good enough right now

Cuevas has looked really good on Clay, wouldn't dismiss him entirely as a QF

not only nadal did wel on clay (australia, acapulco and miami finals)
but I still fear djokovic