RG - Days 12 and 13: Women's and Men's semis

Have combined Thursday and Friday as will be tied up with UK Gen Election in early part of Friday. Two seed plays three seed in the women's, with Halep a slight favourite IMHO. I reckon Ostapenko may find the occasion a bit much against Bacsinszky. I gather either Pliskova or Halep will reach number one with an RG title win.
   Can Thiem upset Rafa? Well, if he hits the ball like he did against Djoko he has a good chance. But I doubt he'll play as well in the semi. But he's beaten Rafa on clay this season so there's hope, at least and at last, of Rafa bing given a decent match.
   Some will make Stan favourite against Murray but the Scot can take heart from his magnificent performance against The Man this time last year at RG. Probably a bit more pressure on Stan as neither Murray nor his fans thought Andy would get this far. If both men are at their best it could be a five-set classic.

Pliskova just needs to make the final to be number one. Halep needs to win the tournament.

I think we are looking at a Nadal v Murray final.

Murray V Wawrinka are always hard to predict.

The head-to-head would suggest a Murray win as he leads 10-7. In slams they have met four times and Murray leads 3-2.

On the other side of the coin on clay Wawrinka leads 2-1.

Going into the match Wawrinka has had the much easier ride through so he'll be physically fresher. If Murray plays at a consistently high level and negates Wawrinka's power he wins every time. If Murray's level is a little lower then Stan certainly can win. Result depends on a lot but whatever happens at least Andy is back playing at a much higher level in time for his preferred surface - grass.

CC- Agree that Stan v Andy is tough to call. Murray fans might be buoyed by the fact that Andy was not quite at his best against Nishi and might have saved up the sort of sparkling performance that will be necessary to beat Stan.
   Conversely, Stan may have played his best match in his demolition of Cilic.

Stan should make easy work of it if I'm
Honest

temporary21 wrote:Stan should make easy work of it if I'm
Honest

If Murray slips into pre-RG form I agree. If not then I disagree.

CaledonianCraig wrote:The head-to-head would suggest a Murray win as he leads 10-7. In slams they have met four times and Murray leads 3-1.

I'm fairly certain Stan has two wins over Murray at the US Open. Anyway, the bookmakers have Stan as a marginal favourite for this encounter but I'm finding it very difficult to call - if Murray can somehow nick one of the first two sets I'd back him to slowly grind Stan down.

theslosty wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:The head-to-head would suggest a Murray win as he leads 10-7. In slams they have met four times and Murray leads 3-1.

I'm fairly certain Stan has two wins over Murray at the US Open. Anyway, the bookmakers have Stan as a marginal favourite for this encounter but I'm finding it very difficult to call - if Murray can somehow nick one of the first two sets I'd back him to slowly grind Stan down.

You are correct theslosty so slam results between them should read Murray 3 Wawrinka 2.

If Stan wins he can beat Nadal in the final. Should Murray get to the final it's an easy win for Nadal.

Ostapenko takes it in three. Some great shotmaking from the 20-yr-old (20 today!) and she would have won even more easily but for too many UEs. I was wrong to think she would be overawed by the occasion but she'll have to tighten up if she wants to win the whole thing.

Later: It will be Halep who has the chance to become number one as she wins in three against Pliskova who had terrific ground strokes but made numerous UEs.
   Halep is a tremendous scrapper (and, alas, a tremendous screecher) and will get back too many balls for Ostapenko in the final, IMHO.

SFs similar to last year, except that Thiem is facing Rafa instead of Novak.  I would not be surprised if from here it also went much like last year (with Rafa replacing Novak) - that is:  Andy beating Stan, Rafa destroying Thiem, and then beating Andy in the final, with none of the matches being very close.

It will be hard to stop Rafa.  The only guy who would have had a fairly good chance would have been Novak in good form, but that guy does not exist.  I think that Andy, Stan and Thiem are probably the three guys with the best chance of giving Rafa trouble, so he will have to beat the best to win it.  But I think he will win.

With that, good luck to Thiem and to Stan!

Wawrinka is quite capable of beating both Murray and Nadal.

anything can happen, but nadal is 100-2 in "best of 5" clay matches

naxroy wrote:anything can happen, but nadal is 100-2 in "best of 5" clay matches

That really is an extraordinary statistic. I'd be very surprised if that isn't 102-2 by the end of Sunday.

Andy v Stan is, as frequently, a difficult one to call. Recent form would suggest Stan, but Andy's form has been improving generally through the tournament, and his SF victory last year shows that Andy's best on clay wins. Also, Stan is not the most consistent player ever - could have an off day (although to be fair he doesn't tend to have those in the later stages of Slams).

I would be interested in peoples thoughts on what Murray has to do to beat Wawrinka on clay?  It seems to me that Wawrinka has the strongest more powerful arm - has the harder ground strokes.  I think Murray has to play clever to beat Wawrinka - lots of variety, lots of variation of pace - in order to break up the rhythm of the game.  I think Murray is the smarter player, while Wawrinka is the harder hitting player.  Stamina may also play a role, and maintaining a high level of energy. Serving is also going to be important - Murray has to be serving well, but on clay perhaps this is less important.

Variety. How he did it in the WTF

temporary21 wrote:Variety. How he did it in the WTF

Thanks for that - that was my thought too.

That break was down to Murray's serve breaking down. Nothing to do with variety - but a simple weakness in serving. That's probably the first set lost.

Actually I take that back. I was reading the text from the BBC - I don't know whether it was lost on the serve or in the subsequent rallies.

Break back! I am going to have to see if I can get a radio broadcast of this on the Roland Garros channel.

Wow - Murray wins the first set on a tight tie-breaker. Can he keep this level of energy and focus up.

Wawrinka you absolute clown. 5-3 and serving for the set, blows it and then has set point on his serve in the tie break and blows it again. A player of his ability and experience should be finishing that set off.

While I am not an avid supporter of either of these players, I hope for the sake of a spectacle on Sunday that Wawrinka wins. I am basing this on the assumption that Nadal will win his semi (though I expect it to be tight for the first couple of sets). I just think Wawrinka is the one with any chance to beat Nadal with his firepower. The Nadal matchup for murray has always been a problem and on chatrier court I cannot see past Nadal in straight sets.

While I have nothing against Murray, really want Stan in the final to really test Nadal if he gets there. Regardless though I still see Nadal winning the tournament.

I prefer to see Murray in the final - simply to see if he can cope with Nadal (assuming Nadal is in the final).  I would like to see Murray maintain his energy and focus against Nadal, without wilting away.  I would expect Nadal to beat Murray, but I want to see evidence that Murray can remain psychologically strong against Nadal throughout a match.  This would also tell us whether Murray can be a future French Open winner and gives us an indication of what to expect for the rest of the season.

Anyway if Murray is able to beat Wawrinka - then I think that would be a huge result for him, given how the season has gone, and how good Wawrinka is on the clay (a recent French Open winner).

I really think Nadal's style is a bad match up for Murray. Nadal leads the H2H 17-7 and 8-2 on clay. Both their French open meetings were straight sets. That being said Murray has improved since then but tennis is so much about playing styles.

I remember even in 2011 when Murray and Nadal were both playing a very high level they met in the French open, Wimbledon and the US open and Nadal won all of them.

Even more surprisingly, on potentially Murrays favourite surface Nadal has even been his nemesis on that surface. 3 meetings at Wimbledon and Nadal won all 3. It has to be just a bad match up.

This is not to say Wawrinka has a good record against Nadal but I get the feeling if he did play really well, his fire power could come into it.

Yes - I got the impression that when Nadal was not carrying an injury - Murray tended to wilt against Nadal in best of five situations towards the end of a grand slam tournament. I thought he was either overawed by the occasion or was just bamboozled by the way Nadal played. That's why I would like to see whether that is still the case - or whether Murray has moved on and is able to better challenge a very good Nadal - but a Nadal that is not as good as he was at his peak.

I can understand why a neutral would prefer to see a Wawrinka in the final - I don't think there would be any risk of Wawrinka wilting - he seems to play with his hard hitting style all the time - and yes I think Wawrinka has a better chance of competing against and beating Nadal.

Another break to Wawrinka. This time in the second set. With some effort holds his serve to go 5-3 up in the second set.

Murray loses his serve again to lose the second set 6-3, broken twice on serve in succession.  Is this the switch in the game that sees Murray flag and Wawrinka go on to win in four sets ...

It looks like these two have their horns locked. Whether it be Rafa or Thiem, that too I believe will be a hard match.. it will come down who has the stamina in the final

Seems to be cat and mouse between Wawrinka and Murray, with Wawrinka the cat and Murray the mouse. Three successive breaks for Wawrinka on Murray's serve, and he has the early break in the third set. I am signing off for now. I expect Wawrinka to win in four in terms of the way this match is going, and past results.

Credit to Murray he is fighting so hard - but he is having to put so much effort into saving his own serve each time now.  Wawrinka breaking Murray more than Murray is able to break Wawrinka.  This is in Wawrinka's hands in my opinion - he is the more solid player on clay.

I think it has always been recognised that clay is not Andy's favourite surface to be honest. In spite of doing his training in Spain when he was a young teenager. Hard courts and grass is where he seems happiest. But I still don't think Andy is back to where he needs to be.

No matter what happens. The terrier Murray is back

That's a set you can put in andys hall of fame

Not right to win it.  Just sheer will 

These two have taken lumps out of each other no matter what now

temporary21 wrote:That's a set you can put in andys hall of fame

Not right to win it.  Just sheer will 

These two have taken lumps out of each other no matter what now

I was coming to add the following post: "I don't believe it - Murray has only gone and won the third set 7-5"
This has become a game of energy management and focus and nerve. Hope Murray is able to outlast Wawrinka in terms of his energy levels.

Slim pickings from a mediocre Murray career if a set where he only moonballed is deemed 'HoF' worthy...

Jermaine2015 wrote:Slim pickings from a mediocre Murray career if a set where he only moonballed is deemed 'HoF' worthy...

Sorry Jermaine2015 your attempt to reach the Troll Hall of Fame has been unsuccessful. Andy Murray has huge cahonies while yours have yet to drop.

Stan wins the fourth set. Clutch play from the Swiss legend.

Swiss legend has to use all his will and power and experience to take this match into a fifth set against the mighty Scotsman with the huge cahonies. (I didn't mark you down there).

2 lions out there. They may have screwed one another for the final.  What you see out there though is real character from real men

Allez Stan! Show them you're great!

This I address to everyone except Jermaine2015 who is a well known troll on the tennis forum.

I think Murray is using up more energy than Wawrinka - in trying to match Wawrinka - who I think is the better clay court player in terms of power and clay court technique.

Anyways I'm finishing up my work now I think. Good luck to both 

Jermaine is a cancer in this forum and it's a bad place to be when he turns up. So I'll go do something more worth my time

Doubt that either will have much left in the tank for the final.. but then we don't know if Nadal or Thiem will either

Troll? I support Zverev, King Roger and Stan. All of whom have German roots.

If Wawrinka races through this fifth set to win, then I think we can say Murray put all his efforts into winning the fourth. Got close, taking it into a tie-breaker, but just ran out of energy in the fifth. I can understand that - and I give Murray top credit for his efforts.

Looks like Murray is going to be bagelled in the fifth. No harm in that, Wawrinka the better clay court player and better on the day. Murray got close - but used up too much energy in the process, and collapsed in the fifth.

Andy you deseve the applause you put up such a fight to the end.. true British Bulldog Spirit. Well done Stan

Claps to both. Murray forced Stan to deplete his animal mode a match too early 

Best of luck to you guys. The cancerous wumming of his place has never really gone away. Until it has I think I'll make the adult move and move on. 

To the memories everyone 

If Stan wins he'll have 4 majors. More than the overrated bottle job Andy Murray. I'll let you enjoy this parting fact.

Keep your options open temporary21. The problem with being visited by the troll is that you can no longer talk openly about the game - knowing the cynical troll wants to draw attention to himself by disrupting the discussion with comments aimed to insult or inflame negative emotion.