Pro14 Grand Final winner.

I thought this was worth posting because the bookies have the Cheetahs at 10/1 (same as Ulster and Glasgow).  Making them the fourth most likely team to win the tournament after Leinster, Munster and Scarlets (in that order).  Southern Kings aren't that far behind at 20/1.

For anybody tempted to think that the the Kings and Cheetahs might be joining at the same sort of level as the Italians and Dragons, this is a bit of an eye opener.

Leinster 7/4
Munster 3/1
Scarlets 9/2
Cheetahs 10/1
Ulster 10/1
Glasgow 10/1
Ospreys 12/1
Kings 20/1
Blues 40/1
Connacht 66/1
Edinburgh 125/1
Dragons 500/1
Treviso 1000/1
Zebre 1000/1

Bookies never wrong and all that.

https://www.skybet.com/rugby-union/guinness-pro-14/betType/win-outright

Given they are all losing players with little opportunity to recruit going into the Pro14 and playing back to back seasons without an off season, I do think it's generous

Nah, Cheetahs have major challenges ahead this season. They have already lost Raymond Rhule, Oupa Mohoje and Sergael /peterson to the Stormers in the last week.

Like any other season the Cheetahs are always building a new squad.

They also have defensive issues that needs to be sorted. As exciting as they can be to watch, they concede a lot of tries.

Don't expect too much out of the SA teams first season.

They likely to end at the bottom end of mid table.

I've certainly never seen them as being at the level of the Dragons or Italian sides. They're South African pro teams - they're gonna be f**king tough and full of decent players! They may not be the top teams in Super Rugby but that comp is a level above the Pro12 for me anyway. Look how the Lions struggled against Super Rugby opposition recently. 

So no, I'm not surprised that the bookies think they'll do ok. I think people will be surprised by how competitive they will be and how many games they'll win. They'll be no slouches at all, IMO.

Griff wrote:I've certainly never seen them as being at the level of the Dragons or Italian sides. They're South African pro teams - they're gonna be f**king tough and full of decent players! They may not be the top teams in Super Rugby but that comp is a level above the Pro12 for me anyway. Look how the Lions struggled against Super Rugby opposition recently. 

So no, I'm not surprised that the bookies think they'll do ok. I think people will be surprised by how competitive they will be and how many games they'll win. They'll be no slouches at all, IMO.

I agree with all of this, and what is interesting is that they are giving them these odds in their first season with so many uncertainties around travelling and no Champions Cup carrot.

But no champions cup distraction during the season either! So they can go full on when the rest of us are resting players for Europe. Although I appreciate that they will not be getting an off season so will be starting the season a bit knackered. It'll be interesting.

Ulster and Cheetahs are too highly rated. Who is the Ulster 10?; Cheetahs have to travel how much and rebuild a side capable of playing in the UK over winter? Cheetahs may make the playoffs with the home advantage, but the Kings finished ahead of them last season. Is there a good reason for the odds reversal?

Ospreys and Glasgow are too low, more so Ospreys. They have starting 6 nations pairings at 9/10 if healthy. Ospreys have the more breakable 10 with a far more capable back up.

It'll certainly be interesting to get outside feedback on our season structure 'cos for me it's an absolute mess. I know the Super Rugby calendar is a funny one with the conferences, etc. But I wonder how the SA teams will find the stop start nature of the NH season where we play a few league games, then 2 Europe games, then back to league, then a bit of Europe, autumn internationals, back to league, some Anglo Welsh cup in their somewhere (or has that gone now?!), 6 nations, back to league, Europe, league, Europe, league, summer tours. Bonkers!

Dragons 1000/1 but Edinburgh 250/1. Are we really 4 times worse?! Haha!

Hazel Sapling wrote:Ulster and Cheetahs are too highly rated. Who is the Ulster 10?; Cheetahs have to travel how much and rebuild a side capable of playing in the UK over winter? Cheetahs may make the playoffs with the home advantage, but the Kings finished ahead of them last season. Is there a good reason for the odds reversal?

Ospreys and Glasgow are too low, more so Ospreys. They have starting 6 nations pairings at 9/10 if healthy. Ospreys have the more breakable 10 with a far more capable back up.

due to the future uncertainties for thevKings they have lost most their contracted players, so they have to strt from scratch.

Griff wrote:It'll certainly be interesting to get outside feedback on our season structure 'cos for me it's an absolute mess. I know the Super Rugby calendar is a funny one with the conferences, etc. But I wonder how the SA teams will find the stop start nature of the NH season where we play a few league games, then 2 Europe games, then back to league, then a bit of Europe, autumn internationals, back to league, some Anglo Welsh cup in their somewhere (or has that gone now?!), 6 nations, back to league, Europe, league, Europe, league, summer tours. Bonkers!

I have always thought your season is crazy, however I think considering the Kings and cheetahs will have little time off for the next year those breaks will suit them

UPDATED:

Dragons now down to 500/1 after a mate of mine posted it on a Dragons board and they all got backing

Griff wrote:Dragons 1000/1 but Edinburgh 250/1. Are we really 4 times worse?! Haha!

Depends on your viewpoint, they did Edinburgh about 0.4% a chance of winning the League and Dragons 0.1% so while it is 4 times more likly you may consider 0.3% of a chance not that much of a difference. Now 0.2% of a chance and difference

Artful_Dodger wrote:UPDATED:

Dragons now down to 500/1 after a mate of mine posted it on a Dragons board and they all got backing

Really?! Haha!!!

Think first season will be tough for the SA teams going back to back, but as others have said the Euro breaks will help them.

Key is going to be whether they can keep the Springboks they develop, if they can then they can definitely compete at the highest levels of the league, if they're picked off by the Stormers/Sharks/Bulls/Lions every year then they'll more or less be development sides like Connacht were a few years ago

Griff wrote:Dragons 1000/1 but Edinburgh 250/1. Are we really 4 times worse?! Haha!

You have to look at the coaching additions, Cockers has a winning pedigree whereas Jackman doesn't

BamBam wrote:Think first season will be tough for the SA teams going back to back, but as others have said the Euro breaks will help them.

Key is going to be whether they can keep the Springboks they develop, if they can then they can definitely compete at the highest levels of the league, if they're picked off by the Stormers/Sharks/Bulls/Lions every year then they'll more or less be development sides like Connacht were a few years ago

I think they will eventually be able to retian their players, consider that some players from other unions might want to play in the pro14 as well, thus providing opportunity for the Cheethas and Kings to draw players because of that.

It might take a season or two though, especially as the Kings and Cheetahs will financially have stability now as well

Biltong, where do things stand in SA and the Super Rugby teams with the racial quotas? Is it S. Africans of colour that meet the quotas or could players from other countries meet the criteria?

That's a good point, would you expect to see the SA sides signing players from the other Pro14 nations

Ie Scarlets having the Irish lock and Barclay made a big difference for them last year

I don't think we will sign overseas players in the near future, I think the hope is that some of the South Africans playing for other clubs in the pro 14, or even the top 14 or Aviva will join the kings and cheetahs.

The quota issue is very real, by 2019 it must be 50%

That'll be interesting then.

In the last few days Cardiff have released Franco van Der Merwe and Connacht have released Marnitz Boshoff. vDM has been linked to London Irish, I wonder if either the Kings or Cheetahs will make a move for them even in the short term.

I don't see why Leinster are 2/1 to win the grand final.
Henshaw and Sexton are both crocked from the Lions.
McGrath and Furlong have had barely any rest going from a full season into B&I Lions.  That has to catch up on them.
Heaslip getting older and more injury prone, SOB could be injured by a slight breeze at this stage.
That Lowe lad from NZ that is coming over has had some serious howlers and mistakes in every game I've seen him play in the last year.
Those are question marks over a significant portion of first choice players going into the season.
.... right I'll say it, Isa is an old man this season -- there is a serious risk of him being selected on nostaglia and memories -- time catches up with all men eventually, is this a season too far for the guy.
I'd be laying the 2/1 if I was a betting man.

Will be interesting to see what they do for the grand final venue - if one of the SA teams gets to the final would many fans travel, and if one day the Pro 14 decides that the final will be held in SA what will happen if neither of their teams makes the final? 2 British or Irish teams travelling to SA for a final with not many fans watching!

RDW are the finals venue decided prior to knowing who are in the final?

They have been over the last few years - 2 seasons ago Murrayfield hosted Leinster v Connact.

There isn't enough time to market it properly and sort out sponsorship and hospitality if they only decide the venue once the finalists are known, according to the Pro 12 people. It is a fair point but does run the risk of low attendances depending on who actually makes the final.

Biltong wrote:RDW are the finals venue decided prior to knowing who are in the final?

Bloody foreigners, coming into our league and not even knowing the way things work

Final venues have been decided about half way through the season through a bidding process since 2015

RDW_Scotland wrote:They have been over the last few years - 2 seasons ago Murrayfield hosted Leinster v Connact.

There isn't enough time to market it properly and sort out sponsorship and hospitality if they only decide the venue once the finalists are known, according to the Pro 12 people. It is a fair point but does run the risk of low attendances depending on who actually makes the final.

The risk exists with low attendances with any format, it's negated to an extent with the home final format but a risk is still there. With the current approach the league is guaranteed an income regardless of attendance which benefits everyone

"Bloody foreigners, coming into our league and not even knowing the way things work"

That's no way to talk about the Welsh Marty

Pete, we know that was going to go over their heads until you mentioned it

marty2086 wrote:

Biltong wrote:RDW are the finals venue decided prior to knowing who are in the final?

Bloody foreigners, coming into our league and not even knowing the way things work

Final venues have been decided about half way through the season through a bidding process since 2015

Biltong wrote:I don't think we will sign overseas players in the near future, I think the hope is that some of the South Africans playing for other clubs in the pro 14, or even the top 14 or Aviva will join the kings and cheetahs.

The quota issue is very real, by 2019 it must be 50%

Oi, hands off our South Africans!

Haha, "your" saffers, now I have heard it all

Biltong wrote:

marty2086 wrote:

Biltong wrote:RDW are the finals venue decided prior to knowing who are in the final?

Bloody foreigners, coming into our league and not even knowing the way things work

Final venues have been decided about half way through the season through a bidding process since 2015

Only the first one (2015) was announced halfway through the season. (January 15 Ravenhill)

2016 (Murrayfield) was announced in September 15

2017 (Lansdowne Rd) was announced in August 16

So I would expect an announcement soon for 2018 (Possibly Mill Stad)

Biltong wrote:Haha, "your" saffers, now I have heard it all

In all fairness they're probably the most reliable and affordable on the market.

mikey_dragon wrote:

Biltong wrote:Haha, "your" saffers, now I have heard it all

In all fairness they're probably the most reliable and affordable on the market.

Yeah, cheap labour, eh?

Biltong wrote:

mikey_dragon wrote:

Biltong wrote:Haha, "your" saffers, now I have heard it all

In all fairness they're probably the most reliable and affordable on the market.

Yeah, cheap labour, eh?

Exactly, that good old rand!

Yup

You make it sound like Eastern European workers coming to the UK to pick asparagus for less than minimum wage! I don't think the saffers are cut price options though. Not cheap labour. Quite the opposite - they come here because they can earn big money. Or bigger money than perhaps at home.

The top stars are on big money no doubt, like Vermeulen, Burger, etc. The rest I'm not so sure about, although they can earn an awful lot more playing in France than they can in Wales or SA. They're likely cheaper than kiwi's and given there's so many of them playing in Europe and they're all good players I'm going to assume they are also affordable.

As the last 3 seasons have shown, its the team that finishes strongest that will likely win.


It'll be interesting to see how the Cheetahs and Kings do. I hope they at least have a good start and home record because they'll suffer from fatigue as the season goes on and that could be costly. Plus with all the uncertainty of the last few months, they've lost players.


So I think they'll be mid table this season but hopefully they'll have the resources to bring in quality next season. Having said that, its the end of the super rugby season and there might be players willing to move to them. It depends on their resources.


As for the other teams:
- Scarlets, they started slowly last season but finished like a train. I think they'll be there or there abouts this season too. Only downside is losing Liam Williams but Halfpenny will be knocking over the points throughout the winter months and will be valuable in tight games.
- Munster, stronger squad this season with some smart signings especially in the backs. Still relying a bit too much on John Ryan at tighthead. They need to develop their style of play this season and Rassie and Jacques Neinabar is leaving half way through the season so whoever the new coach is will have to hit the ground running.
- Leinster, they've made some good signings and have quality young players coming through. They should be there or thereabouts also this season.
- Ospreys, they're usually thereabouts also in terms of finishing in the top 4. They'll be hard to beat as usual.
- Ulster, losing Jackson and Olding is a massive blow but expect Jono Gibbes to sort out alot of things.
- Glasgow, they've lost Townsend but Dave Rennie isn't a bad replacement! They should be thereabouts again this season. Made some good signings too.
- Cardiff, they seem to be in financial trouble at the moment.
- Connacht, new coach in Kieran Keane. Not too many new players though so probably another mid table finish.
- Edinburgh, Richard Cockerill is being brought in to give them a kick up the arse.
- Treviso, I'm optimistic about them. They've made some very good signings this season. Question is will they give up easily when they're losing.
- Dragons, Bernard Jackman coming in should mean attacking rugby with plenty of tries in both ends.
- Zebre, could be in for a bad season.

St John The Enforcer wrote:

Biltong wrote:

marty2086 wrote:

Biltong wrote:RDW are the finals venue decided prior to knowing who are in the final?

Bloody foreigners, coming into our league and not even knowing the way things work

Final venues have been decided about half way through the season through a bidding process since 2015

Only the first one (2015) was announced halfway through the season. (January 15 Ravenhill)

2016 (Murrayfield) was announced in September 15

2017 (Lansdowne Rd) was announced in August 16

So I would expect an announcement soon for 2018 (Possibly Mill Stad)

Just heard that the WRU have declined making a bid for the Final. So it will not be in Wales.

Why havent the WRU bid this year? Since it was it Scotland last year they are unlikely, leaves IRFU and FIR dont think SA will bid this year. Most likely means the IRFU bid and a lot of complaining that its in Ireland so often.

Too many concerts scheduled for May 18

Kingshu wrote:Why havent the WRU bid this year? Since it was it Scotland last year they are unlikely, leaves IRFU and FIR dont think SA will bid this year. Most likely means the IRFU bid and a lot of complaining that its in Ireland so often.

May not be the WRU though, the regions were against the idea from the beginning and were refusing to bid because they risked losing money on it. Don't the bids have to have a team from the league as a stakeholder?

Kingshu wrote:Why havent the WRU bid this year? Since it was it Scotland last year they are unlikely, leaves IRFU and FIR dont think SA will bid this year. Most likely means the IRFU bid and a lot of complaining that its in Ireland so often.

Feickin PrO'14.

One of the quirks on the grand final is that the gate is kept by Pro12/14 as it is their cash to fund the running of the league for the year. And there is probably a minimum gate that has to be guaranteed in order for the pro12 to have enough cash.

The cache for hosting the grand final isn't quite there yet, and if a club has already sold out their beer and food stalls then there could end up being very little upside to them for hosting (unless they think it could give them home advantage).

You will never get enough gate revenue in SA for a final. Super rugby tickets sell for between R80 to R250

That is nowhere enough

thebandwagonsociety wrote:One of the quirks on the grand final is that the gate is kept by Pro12/14 as it is their cash to fund the running of the league for the year.  And there is probably a minimum gate that has to be guaranteed in order for the pro12 to have enough cash.

The cache for hosting the grand final isn't quite there yet, and if a club has already sold out their beer and food stalls then there could end up being very little upside to them for hosting (unless they think it could give them home advantage).

Did that not change with the new setup? The host pays £1m to the league then keeps the gate receipts so the risk is with the host and the league gets a guaranteed pay day

Is it really £1m? Even back as far as the belfast final in 2015 there were only 17k at the match.

20,000 would need to be paying £50 each at the gate to to hit a mil, and even in the attendance I think there are a couple of thousand seats that get taken by pro12 anyway for sponsors.

thebandwagonsociety wrote:Is it really £1m? Even back as far as the belfast final in 2015 there were only 17k at the match.

20,000 would need to be paying £50 each at the gate to to hit a mil, and even in the attendance I think there are a couple of thousand seats that get taken by pro12 anyway for sponsors.

That's just through the gate, you have concessions on top of that too. Belfast City Council and the tourism board were part of the bid so it was aimed at bringing tourists into the city and there were events around Belfast.

I think Guinness played a role in it too