Easy draw for Leinster. Tough for Munster and Ulster.

Leinster have been awarded a very lucky draw in my opinion. Glasgow finished 11th in the Magners League and have little pedigree in Europe. Montpellier also lack European experience and are a fourth seed team. They were very lucky to get to the Top 14 final (having finished 6th) and very lucky to even be in the Heineken Cup. I can't see them beating Leinster. Bath are the only credible opposition to be honest. And Leinster have a 75% win ratio over Bath across their four previous encounters. Prediction: Leinster 1st, Bath 2nd

Rivals Munster have been unlucky. Northampton will be raring to go after they missed out cruelly this year to Leinster. They'll present a very tough challenge, especially if Munster don't sign some worthy backs for next season (Warwick and Tuitupou have both left). Scarlets are an incredibly strong team at times and even Castres will be difficult, having finished 3rd in the Top 14 this year and missing out on a semi-final place by 1 point. Prediction: Northampton 1st, Scarlets 2nd

Ulster have an even trickier draw than their provincial rivals. I can't see them beating Leicester or Clermont Auvergne, who will be particularly strong given their signings of Sivivatu, Byrne, Hines and King. Aironi will be a walk over however. Prediction: Clermont 1st, Leicester 2nd.

Leinster have been awarded a very lucky draw in my opinion. Glasgow finished 11th in the Magners League and have little pedigree in Europe. Montpellier also lack European experience and are a fourth seed team. They were very lucky to get to the Top 14 final (having finished 6th) and very lucky to even be in the Heineken Cup. I can't see them beating Leinster. Bath are the only credible opposition to be honest. And Leinster have a 75% win ratio over Bath across their four previous encounters. Prediction: Leinster 1st, Bath 2nd

Rivals Munster have been unlucky. Northampton will be raring to go after they missed out cruelly this year to Leinster. They'll present a very tough challenge, especially if Munster don't sign some worthy backs for next season (Warwick and Tuitupou have both left). Scarlets are an incredibly strong team at times and even Castres will be difficult, having finished 3rd in the Top 14 this year and missing out on a semi-final place by 1 point. Prediction: Northampton 1st, Scarlets 2nd

Ulster have an even trickier draw than their provincial rivals. I can't see them beating Leicester or Clermont Auvergne, who will be particularly strong given their signings of Sivivatu, Byrne, Hines and King. Aironi will be a walk over however. Prediction: Clermont 1st, Leicester 2nd.

We'll probably beat them at Ravenhill but seriously struggle away.

As I said yesterday I wouldn't write Bath off just yet, theres a few more players coming our way, and I can see us winning one of the two fixtures against Leinster.

ruggerbyplayer wrote:Leinster have been awarded a very lucky draw in my opinion. Glasgow finished 11th in the Magners League and have little pedigree in Europe. Montpellier also lack European experience and are a fourth seed team. They were very lucky to get to the Top 14 final (having finished 6th) and very lucky to even be in the Heineken Cup. I can't see them beating Leinster. Bath are the only credible opposition to be honest. And Leinster have a 75% win ratio over Bath across their four previous encounters. Prediction: Leinster 1st, Bath 2nd

Rivals Munster have been unlucky. Northampton will be raring to go after they missed out cruelly this year to Leinster. They'll present a very tough challenge, especially if Munster don't sign some worthy backs for next season (Warwick and Tuitupou have both left). Scarlets are an incredibly strong team at times and even Castres will be difficult, having finished 3rd in the Top 14 this year and missing out on a semi-final place by 1 point. Prediction: Northampton 1st, Scarlets 2nd

Ulster have an even trickier draw than their provincial rivals. I can't see them beating Leicester or Clermont Auvergne, who will be particularly strong given their signings of Sivivatu, Byrne, Hines and King. Aironi will be a walk over however. Prediction: Clermont 1st, Leicester 2nd.

I think Munster and Ulster will perform better than you think....every time people write off Munster they keep coming back...besides they have Mafi, Howlett, Jones and Barnes in the back line.....good up and coming players in Coughlan and Murray allied to stalwarts such as david wallace, POC, DOC etc
I back them to top their group with Northampton second

I also think Ulster will win at least 2 home games, beat Aironi away and surprise 1 of Clermont/Leicester....this will be a very tight group with bonus points to decide it...Clermont 1st Ulster?leicester scrapping it out for second place

You forgot about Connacht on purpose I suppose? The men from the west are an easy bet for a home quarter 8)

In seriousness, most likely I'd say Leinster, Saints and Clermont will win those pools but I wouldn't write off Munster or Ulster. Munster already have BJ who will hopefully sort out their scrum and could get JDV back too. They would have been a formidable test for the Saints last year and they'll be better next year with those two (possibly JDV I know) and POC back to full fitness - there is no way in hell Scarlets will finish above them btw mate. Ulster now boast a squad that is so much better than the one they had two years ago it's unreal. I don't see them beating Clermont away but if they could get a losing bonus point and give Leicester a scare along with winning their home games and Aironi? Who knows. The key to that group is denying your opponents bonus points at home and getting them away. Anyway, it'll be very interesting.

These groups come in swings and roundabouts anyway. Munster and Leinster had horrible groups last year and Ulster's was grand. This year it's slightly different and next year maybe Munster will get the easy one?

I'd say Leinster will win the tournament again after this draw. They'll finish top seed, get a home quarter in the Aviva (where it is impossible to lose), win the semi and then dominate at Twickenham.

I'm sorry but where's the luck in beating Toulon 27-3 at home with a bonus point? Where's the luck being the first team to beat Castres away all season? Where's the luck beating Racing Metro in Marseille?

Give them the credit they deserve.

Are you talking about Montpellier MBTGOG?

I'll take a chance on it.

I don't doubt their domestic credentials, but they are lucky to be in the Heineken Cup, and were even luckier to get to the Top 14 final. They finished 6th in the French league, one point above Toulon, gaining the last Heineken Cup place available. And they won both their Top 14 quarter-final and semi-final by one point.

To be honest I just hate play-offs, which is maybe why I have been berating Montpellier. The point is, they don't stand a chance of getting out of their group in the Heineken Cup.

ruggerbyplayer

I'd say you said the exact same thing about Toulon last year when they were drawn with Ospreys, Munster and Irish? They were fourth seeds then too you know. I don't think Montpellier will get out of their group but coming second isn't inconceivable. And if Ulster/ASM/Tigers take points off each other in that group 2nd won't be going as well despite Aironi and Treviso and Connacht could pick up points too. Again, I don't think they will, but I still say it's conceivable they could get out of their group and that saying "they don't have a chance" is not only disrespectful but plain wrong. Doing a double over Glasgow and Bath and getting bonus points against Leinster is doable.

Leinsters group is the easiest they've gotten in years. Montpellier will continue the tradition of weaker French teams keeping their main focus on the Top 14. They obviously won't be walkovers but I'd expect Leinster to beat them home and away. I'd also expect them to beat Glasgow twice. As Bath_BTGOG said though, Bath should be better next year. Remember Quins beat Munster in Thomond this year. And London Irish beat Leinster in the RDS the year before. Any Premiership team that qualifies for the Heineken Cup shouldn't be taken lightly. Even so, Leinster's goal should be to earn a home quarter final.

Munster are being underestimated (again). To the people who think they need to rebuild, this process is already well underway. Their scrum probably cost them a quarter final last year. Botha will improve it. I expect them to make a big midfield signing like Nonu or JDV. Their back three is one of the best in Europe. And the likes of POC and ROG are proven HEC champions. They got the better of Saints two years ago. It'll be a close run thing but Munster are the masters of picking up bonus points and denying them to their opponents. They comfortably beat Leinster in the Magners final in Thomond. They'll have no fear of the Saints visit.

Ulster are really up against it. But they will be better next year. They'll have more belief after last year. They've made some top quality signings and hopefully Ferris will be back so they should be able to play even better next year. I wouldn't be surprised if Clermont, Leicester and Ulster all beat each other at home. Bonus points could be the key to winning the group. It's an incredibly tough group though. Qualifying for the Amlin would be a good result for Ulster.

Thank you Feckless, I don't think Bath wil top the group as we don't score enough bonus points but I fancy us to beat Leinster once.

So, what you are saying then is that Montepellier are better in knock-out competition than they are in League.

Northampton by the way, just about squeezed into the Playoffs - miles behind Leicester and Saracens.

mrsuperclear wrote:ruggerbyplayer

I'd say you said the exact same thing about Toulon last year when they were drawn with Ospreys, Munster and Irish? They were fourth seeds then too you know. I don't think Montpellier will get out of their group but coming second isn't inconceivable. And if Ulster/ASM/Tigers take points off each other in that group 2nd won't be going as well despite Aironi and Treviso and Connacht could pick up points too. Again, I don't think they will, but I still say it's conceivable they could get out of their group and that saying "they don't have a chance" is not only disrespectful but plain wrong. Doing a double over Glasgow and Bath and getting bonus points against Leinster is doable.

No not at all. I never doubted Toulon. They were seeded way below their potential because they had just emerged onto the rugby scene in France. I went to London Irish vs. Toulon at the Madstad fully expecting Toulon to win. And they did. There is no way Montpellier will beat Leinster or Bath. Therefore there is no way they will qualify. They are similar to Castres - a mediocre French team who will neglect the Heineken Cup in pursuit of domestic glory. The idea of Montpellier beating Bath and getting a bonus point from Leinster is laughable. I doubt you will find many people who would agree with you on this one.

P.S. Does anyone know when the European Challenge Cup draw will be? And are there going to be Spanish and Romanian clubs in it again?

Ruggerbyplayer - lots of people would have written off Munster's chances of keeping Leinster tryless and actually getting a penalty try in the Magner's Final.

They also would have written off Quins beating Munster in Thomond.

I think you are doing the same with Montpellier.

I am beginning to get tired off with this "easy" group for Leinster craic. Montpellier (TOP14 Finalists) Bath(great HC pedigree) and Glasgow all have the wherewithal to down us in their home games - if we are not completely focused and on our game. In every game. We had to be in last seasons pool - such was the level of the teams in it.

It "seemed" like all Leinster had to do in the HC Final, was to just turn up. Look what happened in the 1st 40 mins. We were blown away. Another try for Saints at the start of the 2nd half and it was over. It very nearly was anyway. Complacency can kill a teams chances in a moment. And Leinster have been guilty of this vs "lesser" teams in the past.

I dissed Ulsters chances last night when I first saw their pool. Albeit, they are in a pool with 2 of the best teams in the competition. Not like me to do that. Premature on reflection. Who beats them at Ravenhill in the HC? No one. A big win away vs Tigers and they are in there. They can do that. And get a LBP away vs ASM. It is well within their capabilities. That happens, then the whole group dynamic changes. Puts the "favourites" under more pressure - which in turn, has a knockon effect on how they perform in other games.

The exact same goes for Scarlets, in an equally tough group with Munster and Saints.

It's fun to predict and say how you think the Pools will pan out. It's what this forum is all about.
The HC brings out the best in teams who want it really badly on the day. And each game brings with it - its own opportunities. Weather, injuries to a key players, loss of form in their leagues, refs decisions going against you on the day... There will be far too many parameters floating around, when it all kicks off, to be "sure" of anything at this stage.

I love the HC for all those reasons.

Other thing worth remembering - teams raise their game when playing the established top teams. Roy Keane used to say that every team that United played were world beaters - where they fell down was that they weren't world beaters every week.

Gibson wrote:I am beginning to get tired off with this "easy" group for Leinster craic. Montpellier (TOP14 Finalists) Bath(great HC pedigree) and Glasgow all have the wherewithal to down us in their home games - if we are not completely focused and on our game. In every game. We had to be in last seasons pool - such was the level of the teams in it.

It "seemed" like all Leinster had to do in the HC Final, was to just turn up. Look what happened in the 1st 40 mins. We were blown away. Another try for Saints at the start of the 2nd half and it was over. It very nearly was anyway. Complacency can kill a teams chances in a moment. And Leinster have been guilty of this vs "lesser" teams in the past.

I dissed Ulsters chances last night when I first saw their pool. Albeit, they are in a pool with 2 of the best teams in the competition. Not like me to do that. Premature on reflection. Who beats them at Ravenhill in the HC? No one. A big win away vs Tigers and they are in there. They can do that. And get a LBP away vs ASM. It is well within their capabilities. That happens, then the whole group dynamic changes. Puts the "favourites" under more pressure - which in turn, has a knockon effect on how they perform in other games.

The exact same goes for Scarlets, in an equally tough group with Munster and Saints.

It's fun to predict and say how you think the Pools will pan out. It's what this forum is all about.
The HC brings out the best in teams who want it really badly on the day. And each game brings with it - its own opportunities. Weather, injuries to a key players, loss of form in their leagues, refs decisions going against you on the day... There will be far too many parameters floating around, when it all kicks off, to be "sure" of anything at this stage.

I love the HC for all those reasons.

Yes but Montpellier were incredibly lucky to get to the Top 14 final. They finished 6th in the top 14 and scraped their way through the quarter-finals and semi-finals by a point in each match. Glasgow are two easy wins for Leinster. And yes, Bath will be a challenge. But they won't win at the Aviva. Leinster will qualify. Montpellier won't. Why has everyone been bigging up Montpellier? They're just another average French team.

But yes, the HC always brings surprises. But what we can be sure of is that Leinster will win their group. Bring on the Heineken Cup!!! Can't wait. Great year of rugby coming up.

There are obviously some banana-skins for Leinster, but it couldn't have gone much better for them either.

It's "laughable" is it? They got to the top14 final pal. I really don't see what they have, or apparently don't have, that makes you think that Bath will walk all over them. What have Bath achieved in the HC recently except lose to Ulster home and away in the last two years? I'm not having a sly dig at Bath's expense here but to say the idea of Montpellier beating them is laughable is so short sighted and naive. Just to be clear, again, I said they could do it, not that they would do it. The odds are stacked against them, just like they were against Toulon last year. As Sin é pointed out to you, unlikely things happen in rugby and I'll be back to you in January if Montpellier finish second

Montpellier are a good team. They'd be my dark horses for second and an Amlin Cup spot. I'd definitely back them to beat few teams in France and possibly away as well.

A few key factors will decide how Montpellier do:

1. Will Galthie become the France boss after Lievremont messes up the RWC?

2. Will they even take the HEC seriously or just take the money and send 2nd XVs to away games?

3. Will they keep Ouedraogo and Trinh-Duc?

Id be far more worried about montpellier than bath to be honest... I see Glasgow taking points off them in Scotland..

I fancy Leinster to make the final at least. It is a tough ask to win again but they have a great chance.

Unfortunately I can't see any of the other 3 provinces getting past the group stages but you never know.

Leinster will need a bit of luck as well. A semi-final in the south of France would not be as easy as one in the Aviva!

Why are Montpellier being put on such a pedestal? I really don't get it. People are forgetting that they finished 6th in the French league. SIXTH. 7th place Bayonne even won more games than them.

And Montpellier got to the final by winning their quarter-final and semi-final play-off matches by ONE point: 18-17 against Castres and 26-25 against Racing Metro.

I'm willing to put my neck out there and say they won't win any of their matches against Bath or Leinster. Feel free to berate me if I'm wrong.

Yup. Home draw in a semi-final is key.

Jebus, we havent even got out of our Pool yet.

We have NO hope. The pressure of being Champs will be too much for us.

I want out Ted.

Sin é wrote:Leinster will need a bit of luck as well. A semi-final in the south of France would not be as easy as one in the Aviva!

Sin you old cad! you never miss a chance to give the ladyboys a sneaky jab!

I bet you enjoyed that Magners final? What a match! Fanastistic stuff from both teams and a great win for your boys.

I can see myself getting bitten in the bum with this but Northampton to struggle.

I think we(Ulster) might be better pepared this year. We took a big step last year in the magners and the HC, our mentality has changed and we have the likes of Mueller and Pienaar to thank for that. We scraped some games last year that previously we would have thrown, and that says alot on how we are progressing as a team. I am not getting my hopes up but why can't we get wins at Liecester and ASM, it's down to the players. I believe we have the players to do that but they need to show up and show up 100%.

ruggerbyplayer wrote:
And Montpellier got to the final by winning their quarter-final and semi-final play-off matches by ONE point: 18-17 against Castres and 26-25 against Racing Metro.

Both away from home, both impressive victories that not many others have managed this season

Notch wrote:Montpellier are a good team. They'd be my dark horses for second and an Amlin Cup spot. I'd definitely back them to beat few teams in France and possibly away as well.

Either that, or they'll decide to focus on the TOP14 and neglect the HC. I hope it's the former.

Maybe we just don't follow your logic ruggerby, you don't rate Montpellier because they made the Top 14 playoffs with 15 wins and 72 pts (the same as Clermont). Toulouse had only 2 more wins that they did.

Then you have Scarlets, who didn't make the Magners playoff (21 pts behind Munster) above Munster and the pool to be topped by Northampton who scraped into the playoffs 13pts behind Leicester.

There is no consistency in your logic

They'll neglect the HC. They know they don't have much of a chance against Leinster and Bath. They came within inches of winning the Top 14 this year and that'll be their primary focus for 2011/12.

Jayz this is great. It will save me a small fortune. Armed with this knowledge, I wont have to go to any of the games except the Final. It's all been sorted on here.

ruggerbyplayer no one is putting Montpellier on a pedastal but you certainly seem to want to knock their achievements so far. Who cares if they only won by a point? They won two huge matches away from home to get to a top14 final. Give them some credit would you and stop taking away from them by calling them lucky. As for saying they don't have much a chance against Bath, are you actually serious? Bath came 5th in the league and haven't done anything of note in the HC in three years now. Yes, they have the history and experience, but that shouldn't detract from the poor show they've given in the last two seasons. By the way, I don't actually care about Montpellier, I just think you're wrong to completely discount them and I feel they'll come second but probably won't qualify for the Heineken, but maybe get an Amlin spot.

Look, I just don't think they'll beat Bath or Leinster. It's always the same with these average French teams. They're not up to it against English/Irish sides. Let's just wait and see what happens. You can give me stick if I've been proved wrong!

Fair enough mate. I'll do my best to remember to give you plenty of abuse in January so 8)

Haha can't wait! I might even have a flutter on it.

Montpellier 80/1 to win the HC on Paddypower. Well worth it .... when the odds come out for them to get out of the group I reckon I'll have to throw a fiver at them after all my talking today now though

No I'll bet on them to lose to Leinster and Bath. May as well win money AND get to give everyone stick coz I was right.

Don't see the problem writing off Montpellier myself. Everyone has backed Castres to finish last in Pool 1. However they finished 3rd in Top 14

Be sure to put money on the Scarlets to beat Munster too ruggerbyplayer

ruggerbyplayer wrote:Why are Montpellier being put on such a pedestal? I really don't get it. People are forgetting that they finished 6th in the French league. SIXTH. 7th place Bayonne even won more games than them.

And Montpellier got to the final by winning their quarter-final and semi-final play-off matches by ONE point: 18-17 against Castres and 26-25 against Racing Metro.

I'm willing to put my neck out there and say they won't win any of their matches against Bath or Leinster. Feel free to berate me if I'm wrong.

yes they finished 6th, so what? still above perpignan , stade français and Toulon...does it make them a lesser team than Bath?: nope. bottom line, if they play the Hcup seriously there is no rreason why they should not challenge for the 2nd spot and give a scare to leinster. the rest is sport and its uncertainties where anything can happen so they could as well finish bottom of their group.

"Average French teams?"

So average they finished above other big name French sides and beat others in the play-offs only to lose to Toulouse by 5 points in the final.

Just because they're not massive spenders like other clubs in France doesn't mean they are an average side.