Who will rule in 2023?

Five years ago, L’Equippe made a list of their predicted top 10 in 2018:

https://www.eurosport.com/tennis/predicted-the-mens-top-10-players-in-2018_sto4707703/story.shtml

It, unsurprisingly, hasn’t worked out quite as they expected, with only Dimitrov and Sock of their ten picks actually making it and Nadal and Federer back at 1 and 2! That said, they were a bit unfortunate as Djokovic, Murray, Raonic and Nishikori would be solid top tenners but for injury woes. Paire, Tomic, Gulbis and Janowicz have proved poor picks.

So could we do any better? How do we see the top 10 looking at the start of 2023? Does anyone think Federer could still be there at 41? I’m going for (with age:current rank in brackets):

1. Shapovalov (18:47) - it’s a big call because he’s still so young and will only be 23 in 2023, which will still be very young for a number 1 in recent times. However, his game is out of the norm, he has the leftie advantage and he looks to have a steady head on his shoulders.

2. Kyrgios (22:14) - there are signs that he’s getting his act together. Injury issues could derail him but, at 27, I’m hoping he will be displaying his full talent.

3. Thiem (24:5) - Surely will win some RG titles once Nadal and Djokovic fade/retire. Still not totally convincing on faster surfaces but should still improve. Expect him to be near his peak.

4. Zverev (20:3) - he’s achieved more as a teenager than any player since Novak but still to beat a top 50 player at a Slam! Hard to see him being far from the top at 25.

5. Rublev (20:33) - rocketed up the rankings in the last 12 months. Should be a solid top 10 player in 2023.

6. Dimitrov (26:4) - will be 31 by 2023 but, to date, has stayed relatively injury free and has only just made his breakthrough. I think he’ll still be top 10.

7. Khachanov (21:48) - big game and, if he avoids injury, he’s only going to get better.

8. Auger-Aliassime (17:161) - is this kid the future of tennis? Does Canada really have the two future Slam winners in waiting? 2023 may still be a little early for FAA but I think he’ll be top 10.

9. Fritz (20:91) - has stagnated a bit after a fast start to his career but getting married and having a baby as a teenager probably has taken his focus somewhat! I still think he’s a future top tenner

10. Medvedev (21:55) - highly promising and I think he can make the top 10.

That top 10 would be a lot younger than the current version but the group aged 25-29 is relatively weak and a lot are also injury-prone. I think we will see things changing a bit after the golden generation is gone.

Interesting looking at the l'Equipe list. Obviously a little French bias (hence Paire at #2). Some reasonable calls and a couple of guys who have really shown that they don't have it between the ears.
10 - Jack Sock: There or there abouts after a good end of last season. Prbbably should be around #15 if everyone was fit.

9 - Jerzy Janowicz: Where has he gone?

8 - Ernests Gulbis: Too flaky to fulfil his potential

7 - Bernard Tomic: I think his inclusion in this list shows what a disappointing waste of talent he is

6 - Kei NIshikori - Probably about right for where he would be if fit.

5 - Novak Djokovic - Current ranking affected by an injury plagued 2017, but otherwise realistically top 3

4 - Milos Raonic - Again, a reasonable projection but for his injury issues over the last 6 months or so

3 - Andy Murray - See Raonic / Djokovic.

2 - Benoit Paire - Hasdn't lived up to these expectations

1 - Grigor Dimitrov - Not quite reached the predicted heights yet, although well inside the top 10 and performed well in the latter part of last year. Realistically about 5 or 6 if everyone is fit.

Obviously the big misses in this projection are Fed and Rafa still being right at the top of the tree, Cilic being well established in the top 10, Alex Zverev, who may have been too young to be on the radar, and Thiem, who is the one they are probably most disappointed to have missed.

As for predictions for 2023, I can't see any of the current big 4 still being active. Mostly agree with the names in BS's list, although picking the order is more difficult. Not sure what to make of Taylor Fritz - burst on the scene but has struggled to maintain his ranking over the last year; will be interesting to see where he goes next.

I think given recent evidence, there's a decent chance Kyle Edmund could be around the lower end of the top 10 by then. I would also expect a couple more older players to still be around the top end (Pouille?)

Paire but always a silly prediction, the rest wasn't too bad. I think virtually any 5-year prediction will be laughably wrong when it comes down to it.

I think Kyrgios, Dimitrov, Zverev, Thiem, Shapovalov are all strong contenders for top ten in 5 years, as well as 1 or 2 younger players could make it.

Let's judge Lequipe on the end of 2018? I'm guessing that makes more sense than the start, unless they explicitly say otherwise? Djokovic, Murray may well be back up there by the end, and the predictions may look good.