Australian Open 2018 - Day 7 & 8 - 4th round

Now moving onto what's often my favourite stage of a slam - 4th round, where we have a mix of big names and some surprises thrown in for good measure (particularly in the womens).

Womens' 4th round line-up as follows:

Halep vs Osaka
Strycova vs Pliskova
Hsieh vs Kerber
Keys vs Garcia
Martic vs Mertens
Allertova vs Svitolina
Kontaveit vs Suarez Navarro
Rybarikova vs Wozniacki

Mens' 4th round line-up as follows:

Nadal vs Schwartzmann
Carreno Busta vs Cilic
Dimitrov vs Kyrgios
Edmund vs Seppi
Thiem vs Sandgren
Djokovic vs Chung
Fognini vs Berdych
Fucsovics vs Federer

The women's draw to me looks a bit lop-sided - a much stronger top-half and whoever comes through that (most likely Kerber or Pliskova) I think will go on to win the title. With exception of Wozniacki anyone from the bottom half would be a surprise finalist. I think Halep, Pliskova, Kerber, Keys, Martic, Svitolina, Kontaveit and Wozniacki will reach the quarters.

Onto the mens 4 of the matches have a clear favourite, 2 have a marginal favourite (Cilic and Berdych) and 2 matches look like real 50:50 contests - the Dimitrov v Kyrgios encounter and Edmund v Seppi. Both of these are tough calls. I'm going for Dimitrov in 5 as I think he's that bit stronger physically these days (Kyrgios certainly capable of blowing him off court but I'm not convinced of his physical staying power in a 5 setter). Seppi will be a tough opponent for Edmund - not to be under-estimated, but I'm going for Edmund in 4 long sets, provided he keeps up his current serving percentage. I don't see Federer, Djokovic or Nadal having many problems in their matches, Berdych is in good form and should see off Fognini whilst I think Carreno Busta can push Cilic though I'll go for the Croat to win this one.

Of Sunday's matches, I would have hoped for a less-experienced opponent than Seppi for Edmund. I recall the Italian beating Fed at Melbourne a few years back. But this is a winnable match for Kyle.
   Kyrgios v Dimi is, as Mr I says, a tricky one to predict. I make Dimi slight favourite but I think few would be surprised if the Australian won. Can't see Cilic or Rafa having too much trouble.
   Caroline W has a great chance in the bottom half of the draw, although her opponent did reach the Wimbledon semis last year. The form woman is Kerber who could go on to win it.
   I haven't got cable, so am pleased to see BBC are doing highlights every afternoon from now on. Normally I have to make do with a few minutes on YouTube.

Mens' 4th round line-up

Nadal vs Schwartzmann
Carreno Busta vs Cilic
Dimitrov vs Kyrgios
Edmund vs Seppi
Thiem vs Sandgren
Djokovic vs Chung
Fognini vs Berdych
Fucsovics vs Federer

Most likely SF :

Nadal v Dimitrov/Kyrios
Djokovic v Federer

sirfredperry wrote:Of Sunday's matches, I would have hoped for a less-experienced opponent than Seppi for Edmund. I recall the Italian beating Fed at Melbourne a few years back. But this is a winnable match for Kyle.
   
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I remember that notable victory by Seppi very well because I was actually in the stadium on the day. It sure was a big surprise for me - and virtually every other spectator

Whilst Seppi certainly played well above his normal level, he was given a good deal of help from Federer who - for whatever reason - looked strangely undercooked and far from his best. I’m not sure Seppi can repeat that sort of performance ; and with Edmund’s confidence at an all-time high, my hunch is that the Brit will progress, albeit after a bit of a fight and no little resistance by Seppi.

I think if you are looking for an opponent in R4 of a slam, a 33 year old who has never been beyond that point in a slam who played a long 5 setter in the last round and doesn’t really have any big weapons isn’t a bad option. Edmund should win this match if he plays well but Seppi won’t give it to him.

Nadal vs Schwartzmann is a very interesting match in the second set TB 4-4. Schwartzmann has played very well in this set so far.

Nadal led by a break three times in that set but eventually loses it on the tiebreak. Even if he gets through this match, I think we can safely say this form isn’t going to trouble Federer if they both make the final. Even Lags may have Federer as favourite after this match .

The ideal sort of match for Nadal - a battle. The sort of test that is handy.

Edmund looks good for a slam Q/F. He now leas Seppi two sets to one after losing the first set. Cikic also through beating Carreno Busta.

Rafa a break up in the fourth set in what has been a long match. Three and a half hours and counting.

Nadal wins in four sets in a match lasting a few minutes short of four hours. A game display by Schwartzman.

Ominously for his opponents, Rafa has now had the tough match that you sometimes need and is safely through. Cilic up next for the Spaniard
   As I write, Edmund can't quite put Seppi away in the 4th but must be favourite to go through.

Edmund does wrap up the win in fourvsets in just under three hours to reach his first slam Q/F. Many congratulations to him.

I've just watched the final set of Edmund v Seppi on one of those streaming websites. Hugely impressed by the way Edmund closed it out, but also by his defensive skills - he's always been a good offensive player but he's added more to his game and can now hang in there and win many points where he's been on the back foot.

Richly deserved quarter-final spot. Against Dimitrov or Kyrgios he will of course be the underdog, but he's got nothing to lose and on his current form neither potential quarter-final opponent will be underestimating him.

Terrific result for Edmund who will now go up to around 33 or 34 in the world and will be close to being seeded in the big tournaments.
   No doubt he'll be hoping that Dimi and Kyrgios have a real longy and wear each other out.

This has the makings of a great match but I’ve either got to watch it on mute or listen to Wilander’s inane wittering. Very irritating!

If Kyrgios comes through to take this from two sets down, (and against the World No. 3, let’s not forget), it could be the most defining match of his career to date.

If he doesn’t ...... then it’s essentially another reminder that he is still not yet up there with the best.

Either way ..... it’s a biggie ........

Kyrgios at least manages to take it to a fourth set to give himself some hope. You pity the women who have to come on after this. What sort of a time are they going to finish?

Great match.

Great win for Dimi, well-deserved.

Dimitrov wins 7-6 (7-3) 7-6 (7-4) 4-6 7-6

Sounds like a great match and full marks to Kyrgios for hanging in there. Dimi will clearly start favourite against Edmund. Looks like we could get a repeat of last year's semi, with Dimi taking on Rafa.

Dimitrov looks to have peaked at just the right time. Lost the warm-up in Brisbane, also v Kyrgios ...... but it’s the Slams wot matter !

This will be a bridge too far for Edmund, though huge credit to him for making the QF’s in some difficult conditions. Hope he can keep the momentum and go on to have a strong season.

Born Slippy wrote:This has the makings of a great match but I’ve either got to watch it on mute or listen to Wilander’s inane wittering. Very irritating!

I prefer Wilander to McEnroe and all the British commentators. At least he's balanced, especially when talking about the temperament of Kyrgios.

I find it hypocritical of these British Eurosport commies to complain about Kyrgios while sharing a commentary booth with McEnroe, and while they don't criticise Murray's swearing in the same way. While these commies moan about Nick's sniping at his box, they don't talk about the behaviour of Murray towards Mauresmo or Lendl similarly, or about Djokovic towards Becker.

Sometimes I wish they would spare us the hypocritical moralising and just give us commentary on the tennis....

A good tournament by Kyrgios...he did well, but Dimitrov was too good.

shivfan you evidently either have a strong dislike of Murray or you don't watch his matches or if you do you watch it with the commentary turned down. The commentators are always pointing it out.

Kyrgios played some good stuff this tournament but ran into one of the best players in world at moment - really demonstrates the importance of improving his ranking so he can avoid meeting someone of that calibre early on.

Onto Edmund's achievement in reaching quarter-final, British tennis fans have obviously been spoilt by Murray's success over the past few years and its worth looking at Henman and Rusedski's record at the Australian Open by way of comparison. Both Henman and Rusedski reached the top 10, but whilst Rusedski reached US Open final once and Henman reached semis at Wimbledon a number of times (and once each at French Open and US Open late in his career), neither player got as far as the Australian Open quarter-finals. And add to that the tough conditions in the hot weather and beating the US Open finalist, its a pretty tidy achievement, and provided he keeps injury-free Edmund should have a good year in 2018, especially on his favoured hardcourts.

I hope Edmund beats Dimitrov but my head tells me Dimitrov has too much court craft / game intelligence for Edmund.

No name Bertie wrote:I hope Edmund beats Dimitrov but my head tells me Dimitrov has too much court craft / game intelligence for Edmund.

I give Edmund about a 20% chance - the Dimitrov of today wins comfortably, the Dimitrov of a couple of rounds ago loses.

A bit surprised that many of Nike-sponsored athletes are wearing Black-Magenta/Pink. Does Nike not know about VIBGYOR?

Federer through to play Berdych. Thiem in trouble after losing first set to Sandgren.

Could be a Chung v Sandgren QF

Funny how the draw pans out.

Federer likely to play Berdych then Chung/Sandgren to make the final. Rafa looking like playing Cilic then Dimitrov.

Federer certainly had the harder draw to start with.

Berdych looking good so far, but expect Fed to come through.

Chung beats Djokovic 6-7 (4-7) 5-7 6-7 (3-7)

Chung takes out Djokovic. As a Novak supporter, it is nice to see him back playing but it is becoming tough to watch him. His level has dropped so alarmingly and now losing to a guy not even ranked in the top 50! how far he has fallen but having been out with injury it was probably asking a lot. that being said seeing the draw Novak must have already thought he was heading for the QF. No disrespect but chung but he is a pretty good 4th round draw.

The big problem is Novaks serve, it has become so slow and he is getting no free points off it. He also doesn't have the same penetration with his ground strokes that he used to.

I want to be positive but this is surely the beginning of the end. The Novak of 2015 to early 2016 would have had this guy off the court in less than 90 minutes. People will naturally jump on the great play by Chung and he did max out on his game but it took 3 long sets to get past a hugely under par djokovic.

Thiem joins Zverev out of the tournament too.

The only positive is Novak has at least got some matches under his belt which will help maybe get some confidence back. However if he doesn't get his serve back, he is toast. You simply cannot expect to compete with no serve and no free points

Credit to Chung though, I doubt many people even knew who he was a couple of weeks ago

Djokovic clearly not at his best, or anywhere near it, but still mightily impressive from Chung.

Yes Chung did play very well but lets be honest Djokovic was appalling. However you have to hand it to Novak for sticking at it and at least making Chung work for it.

In some ways maybe it shows how good Djokovic is that he can play so poorly and still make a guy totally max out just to get over the line. I know it was straight sets but they were three very tight sets. The miss that Novak had with the volley to get break point at around 4-4 in the final set was shocking. If he nails that he could have pulled a set back and it might have got interesting. The what ifs and maybes but this was Chungs day.

Federer must be loving how the draw is opening up

If Djokovic was really suffering it was good that it didn't go to four sets but he should have retired hurt if there is now a risk to his future playing career.  He was said to be working on a new serving action to reduce the risk of future damage to his elbow that seems to have healed but with reduced strength.  It was also said that he rested the elbow to heal naturally without surgery.  Maybe he has to go for surgery now, with the risk that that entails.   History tells us that Del Potro never recovered from his wrist injury back to his pre-injury state / level and nor did Laura Robson.

So, the "tough" draw for Fed is opening up. Feel sure Berdych will cause more probs for Rog than he did at Melbourne last year. But he has lost the last eight to the Swiss. 
   Surprised Thiem fell. Really, he and A Zverev ought to be doing far better than this at the Slams.
   Haven't seen any of the Djoko match. Was he wise to enter if he was not going to be as fully fit as you need to be? 
   Kerber, by all accounts, had a bit of a struggle, but Halep will be pleased with a fairly straight forward win after her marathon match in the previous round.

Bit of a stretch to say nobody would have heard of Chung before this tournament. He won the NextGen tournament at the end of last year if I recall correctly?

Sandgren whose first name is Tennys has now beaten Wawrinka (round 2) and Thiem (round 4).  Not sure if his first name was given to him by aspirational parents or by deed poll.  He is ranked 97, is 26 years old and had never before won a grand slam singles match prior to this tournament (according to the BBC).

As referenced on one of the threads on younger players, whilst the name to many of us is new, Chung is hardly a nobody. He's a young up and coming player with a bright future and the current ranking doesn't reflect what he's capable of.

I didn't see the Djokovic v Chung match but heard some of the radio commentary on 5live, and yes it did sound like Djokovic's level was some way below his best. However, credit where its due - its never easy to beat the likes of Nadal, Djokovic and Federer, even when they're injured. I can think of many matches the top players have won despite being visibly injured. The win in straight sets, on top of beating Zverev, shows Chung has the mental toughness required at the top. Whether he has the full array of weaponry is another matter, but if you have the mental toughness that goes a long way.

I personally think ironically the biggest test for Chung will be against the lower ranked even more unfancied Sandgren in next round, where the young Korean will not be the underdog, and will have all the expectation to deal with following his victory over Djokovic. If Chung dispatches Sandgren in 4 sets or less, I will be impressed.

Regarding Djokovic, *provided he's not aggravated his injury* this isn't a terrible loss for him - better to lose at this stage to an up and coming player rather than in a 5 set dogfight in the semis with Federer. The tournament has given him opportunity to test the waters and have an indication of where he's at - good enough to survive the early rounds, but plenty to ponder with the new amended serve action and impact that has on rest of his game.

Regarding Thiem and Alex Zverev I think there's 2 separate issues. Firstly, whilst I love watching the guy, Thiem is a bit of a claycourt specialist who is only likely to have the occasional great run at a big tournament off the clay - I'm thinking of a latter-day Kuerten (remains to be seen if he can be as good as Guga at Roland Garros though!). Alex Zverev has been losing to other up and coming young players in slams. I think he can develop and overcome his current issues in slams, although I'm unsure if its a physical conditioning issue or more on the mental side - plenty of time on his side to work on this though.

slashermcguirk wrote: As a Novak supporter, it is nice to see him back playing but it is becoming tough to watch him. His level has dropped so alarmingly and now losing to a guy not even ranked in the top 50! how far he has fallen but having been out with injury it was probably asking a lot.

The weight of fans' expectations can be unfair to players. Djokovic is willing to put in the effort and rebuild. To what past levels can he come back to, is anyone's guess. The prime directive at this point should be to stay healthy. CC has already written about Murray's decline.

Injuries have led/laid many a promising career to the grave - Norman, Muster, Soderling, Wawrinka, Murray, ... a long and illustrious list to be proud off.

Nadal's is the literal Phoenix today, and most unique. He seems to thrive on the injury/recovery cycle.

Have seen very little actual tennis, but seems like an interesting tournament. Some surprise results and newcomers doing well.

Tennys Sandgren's career record is 2-8 (ATP Tour and Grand Slam level, and in Davis Cup) according to ATP site.

I don't think Djokovic's loss was much of a surprise, though. I think I half expected he might lose this match. However, I think Federer and Nadal will still be slightly relived to see him go.

I did watch highlights of Federer-Gasquet and based on that would expect him to reach the final.

Nadal has a bit harder route.

Nice to see Dimitrov has gone up a level in the last 6 months. He's now aged 26 -statistically speaking most players either win their first slam aged 26 or earlier, or never win a slam...

I could see literally anyone getting to the final, but actually winning the title I think there's at least a 50/50 chance it'll be one of Federer or Nadal. I'd give Dimitrov and Cilic an outside chance as well but I'm not quite convinced they can beat both of Federer and Nadal.

From the BBC it doesn't look good for Djokovic.  I think he is probably finished at the elite singles level.  He could try surgery but it looks like Djokovic is against that idea with all its attendant risks.

" ... Djokovic, 30, had treatment to his right elbow after the first set and was visibly in pain at times.  "Unfortunately, it's not great, kind of end of the first set it started hurting more, so I had to deal with it until the end of the match. I was hoping I can go through [the tournament without pain and without it flaring up again] but I don't want to talk about my injury tonight because then I'm taking away Chung's victory, the credit that he deserves.

Future uncertain for Djokovic: After six months out undergoing painstaking rehabilitation, but opting against surgery, Djokovic must now reassess the way forward.  Asked about his next move, Djokovic admitted: "I really don't know. It's frustrating, of course, when you have that much time and you don't heal properly.  But it is what it is ... I'm just trying my best obviously because I love this sport.  I enjoy training. I enjoy getting myself better, hoping that I can get better, perform and compete."  "

Chung himself is apparently a Djokovic clone.  Djokovic is his idol and he models his game after him (elasticity and sliding).

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/42773242

Moving away from Novak, I really hope Berdych turns up against Federer. Back around 2010 I fully expected Berdych to go on and win a slam or two but he never managed it.

However, when he does bring his A game he is a very formidable player. His big weakness is his mental strength with a tendency to go awol at the worst possible moment. However, Berdych has beaten Federer twice at grand slams (Wimbledon and US open) and not many people can say they have done that in their career.

The big concern for Berdych is his more recent meetings with Federer, all of which he has lost. The positive is that he has come through a pretty tough draw beating the likes of Del Potro and Fognini in straight sets and that takes some doing on a hard court. While I expect Federer to win, if Berdych can somehow take the first set and really dictate play with his big serve and forehand, he has the potential to take the racket out of his opponents hand.

My prediction is Federer in 3-4 sets, he will no doubt move Berdych around the court and get a handle on his serve. I for one though would like to see Berdych win a slam, as remote a possibility as that actually is. I cannot believe a player of his pedigree was 80-1 to win the tournament before his Fognini match!

A cracking result for Chung - no doubt. I never saw any of the match so can only go on what has been posted here. He will take a massive boost from this win but expectation levels and pressures will now go right up for him.

For Novak it sounds like the elbow issue has not healed or is still there or still being an aggravation. It is clearly still gnawing away at him as earlier in the tournament when asked about how the elbow felt I was concerned when he said that it still wasn't 100%. Injuries like that won't improve if playing slam tennis. He needs to decide now on the next course of action? He may need to go down Andy's route of surgery ascseemingly a long rest alone has not solved the issue. Fingers crossed for him but kudos to Chung.

The door has not opened for Roger it has been taken off its hinges today with Djokovic and Thiem crashing out. I wouldn't bet a penny against this being a Rafa V Roger final now. Who wins that? Hmm tough to say.

With regard to Djokovic and Murray - I think there is healing and then there is "healing".  Both seemed to expect the result of the natural healing process to produce the same physical condition as pre-injury.  But it may be the natural healing process produces a physical condition that is not as strong as pre-injury.  This may be fine for normal mobility and even normal playing of sports.  However at the ELITE level, where they tend to hyper-extend and hyper-compress everything for a significant length of time, the naturally "healed" state is just not up to it.

It seems to me that Djokovic and Murray found this out only when they began testing themselves at an "elite level" of sustained activity.

I seem to recall that natural healing process especially after the body has stopped growing (reached its adult stage) tends to heal using scar tissue - which is different to the tissue that it is replacing (and lost in the injury process).

CaledonianCraig wrote:A cracking result for Chung - no doubt. I never saw any of the match so can only go on what has been posted here. He will take a massive boost from this win but expectation levels and pressures will now go right up for him.

For Novak it sounds like the elbow issue has not healed or is still there or still being an aggravation. It is clearly still gnawing away at him as earlier in the tournament when asked about how the elbow felt I was concerned when he said that it still wasn't 100%. Injuries like that won't improve if playing slam tennis. He needs to decide now on the next course of action? He may need to go down Andy's route of surgery ascseemingly a long rest alone has not solved the issue. Fingers crossed for him but kudos to Chung.

The door has not opened for Roger it has been taken off its hinges today with Djokovic and Thiem crashing out. I wouldn't bet a penny against this being a Rafa V Roger final now. Who wins that? Hmm tough to say.

Roger wins easily against Rafa here. The only question I think is whether he will win the title without dropping a set - 11 years after he first did so. The draw has worked out absolutely perfectly for him.

As far as I can tell, Rafa looks to be in ominous form. Rafa was a break up in the final set the last time they met at the Australian Open. Rafa won the US Open and the courts at the Australian Open are slower.

No name Bertie wrote:As far as I can tell, Rafa looks to be in ominous form.  Rafa was a break up in the final set the last time they met at the Australian Open.  Rafa won the US Open and the courts at the Australian Open are slower.

The US Open courts are no longer slower than the Australian Open courts. Last year the US Open was very slow and high bouncing and the AO was faster by a long way. This year the AO is fast too and I guess the USO will be slow again.