6N 2018: Wales v Scotland, 3 February

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WALES v SCOTLAND
3 February 2018
KO: 14:15 GMT
Principality Stadium, Cardiff

Live on [ITV, RTE, SC4, FR2, DMAX / BBC (H)]

Referee: Pascal Gaüzère (France)
Assistant 1: Romain Poite (France)
Assistant 2: Matthew Carley (England)
TMO: David Grashoff (England)

A. Head to Head

122 Played 122
70 Won 49
3 Drawn 3
49 Lost 70
1,624 Points 1,263

B. Recent Form

9 March 2013
Murrayfield, Edinburgh
18–28 to Wales

15 March 2014
Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
51–3 to Wales

15 February 2015
Murrayfield, Edinburgh
23–26 to Wales

13 February 2016
Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
27–23 to Wales

25 February 2017
Murrayfield, Edinburgh
29–13 to Scotland

C. Teams

WALES 

Leigh Halfpenny (Scarlets); Josh Adams (Worcester), Scott Williams (Scarlets), Hadleigh Parkes (Scarlets), Steff Evans (Scarlets); Rhys Patchell (Scarlets), Gareth Davies (Scarlets); Rob Evans (Scarlets), Ken Owens (Scarlets), Samson Lee (Scarlets), Cory Hill (Dragons), Alun Wyn Jones (Ospreys, capt), Aaron Shingler (Scarlets), Josh Navidi (Cardiff Blues), Ross Moriarty (Gloucester).

Replacements: Elliot Dee (Dragons), Wyn Jones (Scarlets), Tomas Francis (Exeter Chiefs), Bradley Davies (Ospreys), Justin Tipuric (Ospreys), Aled Davies (Scarlets), Gareth Anscombe (Cardiff Blues), Owen Watkin (Ospreys).

SCOTLAND

Stuart Hogg (Glasgow Warriors); Tommy Seymour (Glasgow Warriors), Chris Harris (Newcastle Falcons), Huw Jones (Glasgow Warriors), Byron McGuigan (Sale Sharks); Finn Russell (Glasgow Warriors), Ali Price (Glasgow Warriors); Gordon Reid (London Irish), Stuart McInally (Edinburgh), Jon Welsh (Newcastle Falcons), Ben Toolis (Edinburgh), Jonny Gray, John Barclay (Scarlets, captain), Hamish Watson (Edinburgh), Cornell du Preez (Edinburgh).

Replacements: Scott Lawson (Newcastle Falcons), Jamie Bhatti (Glasgow Warriors), Murray McCallum (Edinburgh), Grant Gilchrist (Edinburgh), Ryan Wilson (Glasgow Warriors), Greig Laidlaw (Clermont Auvergne), Pete Horne (Glasgow Warriors), Sean Maitland (Saracens).

https://twitter.com/WalesRugby/status/959135209290682368

All we need is a "Tim Visser holds Tackling Masterclass for Wales' Backs" headline and I'll begin to feel confident.

Seriously, this game could go from a bonus point victory to an absolute drubbing and everything in between. I just hope the beer in Cardiff is as good as I remember.

No complaints about the trains home from Cardiff directly after the game, please. You’ve been warned many times!

Edit: I mean trains East (but going as far as Newport is fine).

I absolutely love Cardiff on match day. The best 6N venue by some distance.

I expect Wales to win up front but the main issue is kick chase sans Bigger; we kick to Hogg we are booked so I expect more kicks to touch for sure and a tighter forward orientated game. Ultimately if Watson bosses the breakdown it could screw Wales. Personally think Cubby would have been the perfect guy to combat that but Gtas is clearly going back to type for this must win.

Decent, non wummy post there Gwlad! Kudos.

It's a depressing post as shows what gwlad could post consistently ie really good points.

RuggerRadge2611 wrote:Miaow that's some top quality posting. A Welsh grand slam is maybe a bit premature this season, get Pivac at the helm and I think that crop of players will produce the goods, but this season smacks of transition by default rather than by design. I don't believe for one minute that the team we see arrayed against us in red on Saturday would have been chosen if Warburton, Biggar, Faletau, Webb, North, Williams and JD were fit.

Very much so, it would be completely against any sort of logical prediction, but I don't think that really matters. In all honesty, Wales have been punching below their weight on a consistent basis since 2014. There are several reasons for this, and it's a debate for another time just why that is, but generally I'd say it's Gatland's coaching methodology (focusing on fitness and delaying tactical tweaks, targeting the 'big' games, which increasingly became RWCs and Ireland/England in 6Ns); the stagnation that comes from players getting picked when they'd coasting or just not good enough (Roberts, Halfpenny, Lydiate, Cuthbert, Baldwin...there are many more); most recently, the dire coaching at the regions. You can beast the players to improve their fitness, but you can't really compensate when players have been producing average rugby skills week in week out. Now, that's changed, and the Scarlets boys coming in to the camp will be coming in in prime condition - mentally and skills-wise. I don't believe that the Ospreys players have become as individually and collectively as bad as their results/form would show, but mediocrity and failure can become a consuming thing, as anyone who has played rugby, or even worked in a group environment, will know. It can be hard to turn things around; fresh blood, and energised, confident, and positive blood in the Scarlets players, could raise the likes of Tipuric, AWJ etc.

I do feel like the fall of games, with 3 at home, can help Wales, although the main reason for this feeling is, simply, the squad. I think it's fair to say Wales have been undercoached since the RWC in 2015, barring the 2016 tour to New Zealand. Either side of that tour they've played fairly dreadful rugby, with two games standing out - the victory against Ireland, and the home game against England last year ('should' can be a meaningless word in sport, but they dominated the game for 70 minutes and worked enough control to score 3 tries which would have secured the win). This is the level Wales can play at when they get 'up' for it, but when they're running in neutral they can be really poor. Can they hit that top intensity every week? No. But they may not need to. A win tomorrow would mean they've put away a good Scotland side. They'll be up for England, and in all honesty, however powerful and strong they are (which they are) they're not as good as they're made out to be, which is typical, but they're also certainly beatable. I would be disappointed if they didn't go on to win the tournament if they win those two games.

Now, this is all well and good saying this now, but tomorrow evening this might look completely deluded. I do think the uncertainty means Wales could end up going either way, but if they perform I think they have enough about them to beat every other team. The Lions showed that, individually, Welsh players are quality, even if you disagree with their presence. But yeah, it could be horrible as well. Wales could be given a runaround tomorrow, leading to us scrapping to avoid the Wooden Spoon. Likewise, if they don't 'front-up' against England, they could get hammered in Twickenham. But there's something exciting about the fresh blood. We're not as bad as results suggest. Had we turned up against England in the first half in 2016, that game would have become winnable. Yes, England were in full flow at that time, and deserved the win, but it's not like Wales were blown away: we nearly came back and won it, and may well have bar a poor touch judge call. The 2016 Ireland game was a strange game where we cancelled each other out in a fairly turgid/tentative game; ended up drawing it although we had a marginal edge and looked the more likely of the two teams to nick it. Then to 2017; I've addressed the England game (I think one of Wales' best performances in the Gatland-era, even if it was Howley; the painful part is they lost the game because they couldn't score points, which is a damning indictment of the work put in by Howley/whoever the interm attack coach was for that game. Defence and intensity, and discipline in fact, could not have been better.). Scotland was the worst 'first team' game I can remember Wales playing for a long time, and the France game was weird in that Wales seemed to be winding down to a win before Warburton unfortunately hoofed it out on the full from a 65m kick, leading to 'that' series of scrums. So 'should' is a bit of a cop out, but Wales were very close in all their 6Ns losses bar the Scotland game. It's indicative of the fact that Ireland, Wales, and England have been pretty much evenly matched since 2012, playing similar brands of rugby, with only slight variations over that time. The difference is, now, that Scotland have joined the party, albeit playing a fairly different style. I think we might end up looking back at this period as something a bit special for the home nations.

As you say, though, add in a few of the star players and the chance of a successful Welsh campaign would increase dramatically. I think if Liam Williams were playing tomorrow it would be a huge difference, simply because we're relying on Steff Evans' trickery and Josh Adams' pace at a level they've not comfortable with yet. Biggar is a loss, but perhaps not for this game; his control against teams like England and Ireland is invaluable though, and he was magnificient against England last year. I actually think Jake Ball's bulk is a big loss, he's a useful out ball when it slows down and we need to guarantee getting to the gainline, his work in the tight probably goes unseen, and he also has decent understanding/handling when the game opens up for the Scarlets. JD2 is a loss, obviously, but I think if Scott Williams is solid and consitent that can be mitigated somewhat because he has similar power and pace. Webb is quality, but Aled Davies has had a really good season; two very different players, and if Aled can step up and bring control to a pack that might, at times, be under threat, he can provide a nice foil to Gareth Davies who is a bit loose but also lethal. Good chance for both scrum-halves to come of age this 6Ns. North hasn't performed for Wales for a while; Warburton is literally irreplacable, no player like him in the NH; Faletau likewise, although was, for the first time, off-form/unfit for Wales last year, resulting in 'good' performances rather than his usual brilliance.

They are all losses, but I stick to my feeling that, in some ways, the fresh blood might be a blessing, particularly if we get one or two players back for England (Liam Williams, North if Adams/Halfpenny don't perform would be great) because, for all Scotland's threat in the backs, you look soft up front and Wales might be able to exploit that, whereas England are never that weak. Can't help but feel a Biggar/Patchell combination at 10/22 would have been perfect for the tournament, so I hope Patchell's given the support he needs and isn't thrown under the bus by the coaches. Owen Williams isn't anything particularly special, nor is Anscombe, whereas Patchell is raw but has a genuine spark.

Anyway, hope it's a good game, and if Scotland do win I hope they go and terrorise every other country with their running threat. Watching them in the autumn was like watching Wales in 2005.

Feel like North probably played himself back in tonight.

Hmmm. I feel uneasy that both Wales women and U20’s have won. I’m not really a gambling man but in my head it makes the odds of the a Wales win tomorrow that bit longer. I know each game is separate and individual but something inside says to me that the chance of the triple coming in are slim(ish). Can any gambling/stats allay my fears?!

It's like three heads in a row. It's only a 1 in 8 before anything has happened but after the first 2 heads the last is 1 in 2 like it was before. Mutually exclusive.

To be fair it's not a massive surprise our womans and under 20s teams lost!

RDW_Scotland wrote:To be fair it's not a massive surprise our womans and under 20s teams lost!

Really? U20s are mixed for us but Wales women have been pretty poor over the years I think.

Only until very recently Scotland women classed a 6N game as successful if they scored some points!

Scottrf wrote:It's like three heads in a row. It's only a 1 in 8 before anything has happened but after the first 2 heads the last is 1 in 2 like it was before. Mutually exclusive.

Thanks Scott. Maybe I was overthinking it. Remember putting on accumulators in my youth but not having much luck!

I AM VERY EXCITED TO WATCH THIS RUGBY MATCH TODAY!

Gwlad wrote:I expect Wales to win up front but the main issue is kick chase sans Bigger; we kick to Hogg we are booked so I expect more kicks to touch for sure and a tighter forward orientated game. Ultimately if Watson bosses the breakdown it could screw Wales. Personally think Cubby would have been the perfect guy to combat that but Gtas is clearly going back to type for this must win.

I agree about Hamish Watson, cracking player and can really cause teams problems.

Here we go!

Good luck all!

Very excited for this match to start but there is nothing like John Inverdul to put a dampener in the build-up. I really do wish that the BBC would cotton on to his incapability to present rugby.

I see that the meeja wheels are turning and now Scotland officially has no chance again.

There's a serious point here - some of you who are older than 30 may even care that I'm making it. Received wisdom is the laziest thing in the world and punditry reeks of it. Reputations crystallise over time and then must be actively displaced. The inertia over partisan media outlets and commentators who aren't interested in anything other than their team is overwhelming. The scribblers just sit with their arms folded.

Scotland has accomplished more in past year (in rugby terms) than they have over the past 10. Take the Australia result - remarkably, it was only the second time that one of the home unions or France had put 50 points on one of the Southern Hemisphere big three after England’s soon-to-be world champions beat South Africa 53-3 at Twickenham in 2002.

In the last 12 months, Wales played 11 matches, winning 6, losing 5 and scoring 20 tries. In the same period, Scotland played 11 matches, winning 7, losing 4 and scoring 41 tries. Scotland are 5th in the world rankings, Wales are 7th. If Scotland win, they could rise to 3rd, their highest ever.

Despite all this, it is absolutely unavoidable that most neutrals and all Welsh fans that I know don't believe that Scotland will win today. They don't know about the progress that the Scotland team has made over the past year and they don't care. Why won't Scotland win in their eyes? Because they haven't in this tournament for a while. And that's the message. You have't really made it until you have displaced the laziest of assumptions by the most fairweather of fans who really take no interest in anything other than this tournament. That's when you know you have turned the corner.

And that's why Scotland absolutely has to win today and win well. I hope that they do.

Think Scotland have got this.

Great atmosphere to kick the Six Nations off.

2 best anthems in rugby. Can't wait!!! Game on lads!

Erm. I'm neutral and predicted wales to win. I do that based in the front row and it being in Wales. You can definitely win today though. There's is none of my money on this match!

Huge turnover navidi - we just didn't commit enough to the ruck

Not great from Scotland - very open with absolutely no structure. Could read that interception from a mile away!

did we miss the first 60 minutes???

Jeez man. I'm knackered already

FFS Scotland have got to get our sh!t together - we're all over the place

Feeding?!

its all very well being the new Brazil of rugby but if you can't defend for McToffee you're stuffed

Ali price needs to get his head sorted!

Wow..this game has started at a lick...2 tries to Wales and end to end...im knackered just watching

Someone needs to read the riot act under the post - this is the worst possible start.

Absolutely fantastic game so far. Wales looked under the cosh but have simply opened Scotland up far too easily in attack.

Scotland might as well not have a midfield in defence. They absolutely have to hang on to the ball...

What a start. Wales lethal against a sluggish Scottish defence.

Surprised about the FK at the scrum, though! Will that be a consistent thing or dropped after week one?

A bit too easy that 2nd try. All the talk of organised chaos but a deep breath may be best here for ten mins.

Scotland going for the glory pass every time - we need to take the ruck and re-set

At this rate the props will need defibrillators

In amongst all the fireworks it's interesting hearing Gauzere shout at the 9s the ball is out when they start rolling it with their hands...wonder if that is what the refs have been talking about

Both teams in full attack mode but Wales midfield defence proving much better than Scotland's right now.

Good point in the ball of out when the bar is being rolled. Positive and I hope it's a consistent thing.

I admire scots ambition but basics ffs, going wide so early and dont secure possession in turnover and have zero scramble defense to handle turnovers at such high intensity

Scotland are a shambles

Get well soon alex Dunbar

Wales are chucking it about well. I think maybe the changes have freshened them up.

Scotland can get back in but too sloppy so far. Wales look in a better place mentally.