Changing of the Guard in Men's British Tennis?

As of today we have:

Andy Murray rank 20 (points 1960)
Kyle Edmund rank 26 (points 1667)

If Edmund is able to play at the same level that took him to a grand slam semi-final for the rest of the year he should be able to do a "Johanna Konta" and continue to rise in the rankings perhaps into the top 15 or better.  

Meanwhile Andy Murray's ranking will continue to slip and very likely he will be overtaken by Edmund before he is able to get back into serious competitive form.  

However even if Andy Murray is able to recover from his hip injury he is likely not going to be as good as before and it might be that once Edmund passes Murray, he will remain there as Britain's Number One for the forseeable future.

Furthermore given that we are moving into an era where all the big guns are getting older, with age and injury not very easy to overcome, it might be that Edmund ends up with more Grand Slams titles than Andy Murray, by the time he hangs up his racket.   Personally I doubt this, but given we could be entering into a "weak era" it seems not entirely beyond the realms of possibility that my current alcohol assisted lower state of consciousness is allowing me to imagine.

Steady on with the booze !

Rising up the rankings is one thing. Winning Slams is altogether something different.

Mind you ...... if Pat Cash was able to get himself a Wimbledon title, I’d really like to think Kyle Edmund can get one - and/or one of the other three.

Sooner or later Murray won't be top-ranked British player. Every tennis player in the world has a shelf-life.

Will Edmund surpass Murray's achievements? Not a hope in hell even given that we are evidently moving into a weaker era.

Edmund's QF win against Dimitrov was another level but even so, if his ranking is 26 now, and were to remain 26 in February 2019, I think that would be a satisfactory/good result. He should certainly, obviously, be aiming for higher than that by the year end but after the AO next year that's a lot of points to drop.

Expectation is higher now.

If I had to make a prediction for number of grand slams he would win in his career I would go zero as my frst guess and I would think he would be very happy with 1.

Henman Bill wrote:Edmund's QF win against Dimitrov was another level but even so, if his ranking is 26 now, and were to remain 26 in February 2019, I think that would be a satisfactory/good result. He should certainly, obviously, be aiming for higher than that by the year end but after the AO next year that's a lot of points to drop.

Expectation is higher now.

If I had to make a prediction for number of grand slams he would win in his career I would go zero as my frst guess and I would think he would be very happy with 1.

Absolutely - there are several hundred professional tennis players at any one time, and only a handful to maybe a dozen of them will win a slam - even excellent players like Berdych, Tsonga and Ferrer haven't won one despite a decade in and around the top 10.

Edmund's performance in the AO suggests he may have the potential to be top 10 or thereabouts (based on beating Anderson and Dimitrov), but he still has never gone beyond the semi final of an ATP tour event - still much to prove and much to do before we start considering him a credible challenger for Slams.

I was going to add that it is inevitable that Edmund will be taking over as British number 1 - Andy's points are primarily made up of 720 for the RG semi final and 500 from winning Dubai. The latter of these drops in a month's time. In the meantime, Edmund drops 25 points the previous week (45 for Delray Beach, replaced by 20 from one of several non-counted), so even if he doesn't play a tournament before Indian Wells, he takes over as GB #1 once Andy's Dubai points drop.

Of course that doesn't mean Edmind has taken over as the figurehead of British men's tennis - very much a case of wait and see how good Murray is on his return from injury.

Edmund's play has improved enormously since last year, particularly his backhand. He did very well in Melbourne and it was heartening to see someone apart from Murray flying the flag for GB.
   But, as DH says above, it's difficult to predict just how far he can go. For the time being, he's got the points, he's got his ranking up and he's going to be seeded at the big events. It's a good position to be going on with.

Does Murray really love tennis so much that he would come back and play in the 20s if he had to? I would have thought he would come back and reestablish himself as no 1 within months, or retire.

If it's a bit borderline he could play some doubles with his brother. Obviously that depends a little on whether Jamie has a good partnership with someone else or not at that time and whether that was expected to continue.

Kyle Edmund hasn't been able to fully recover from his own hip injury picked up during his AO2018 campaign and so hasn't been named in the British Davis Cup draw against Spain on clay.  He is still in the squad - so could be named to play if his situation improves.  Personally I don't think he should risk it.  Hence it looks a certainty that Britain will lose in the first round of the Davis Cup (starting tomorrow) and so be forced to face a play-off later on in order to stay in the World Group:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/42904334

Here is someone who has recovered from hip surgery and is back to winning ways 6 months later - Alistair Brownlee in the 1/2 Iron Man.  Probably tournament tennis is a lot more aggressive on the hip joints than 1/2 Ironman, but Brownlee seems to have made a full recovery. And he is of a similar age to Andy Murray.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/triathlon/42915410

The gulf between the Fab 5 and the rest gets cemented with each slam three or more of them are missing and yet still one of them (usually Roger) wins the event

It's staggering to realise that Fed's new domination has coincided entirely with Novak, Andy and Stan very much been 'off peak' to say the least. And well done to Roger

However, it vindicates why fans of these three, got a bit peeved at the lack of recognition they got in at least providing slam alternatives. Of course with Novak in particular, his status as one of the greats, again increases due to no-one else outside of these five been capable of even looking like challenging

All of this increases Edmund's chances. Clearly Dimi, Cilic etc are now as cowed as Roddick became - I don't think either of them will win another slam, i.e. Dimi, Raonic etc won't win one. Del Boy, would be a challenger, but it's impossible for his body to be at the peak needed for a two week event

It's hard not to include Edmund, even if arguably he's not really shown any signs of having a career that exceeds John Isner's

As dummy_half noted last month, Andy Murray is not defending his last remaining title this week, the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championship, so will be dropping 500 points and falling on the cusp or outside of the top thirty.

As a result Britain will have a new number one from the start of next week - Mister Kyle Edmund.

No name Bertie wrote:As dummy_half noted last month, Andy Murray is not defending his last remaining title this week, the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championship, so will be dropping 500 points and falling on the cusp or outside of the top thirty.  

As a result Britain will have a new number one from the start of next week - Mister Kyle Edmund.

A tad irrelevant really.

It was akin to when Stan was above Federer in the rankings. Nobody for one minute thought it made Stan the top Swiss player. That is the case here. Circumstance has Edmund above Murray in the rankings nothing else. And remember Murray has been off court for well over eight months and is only just being overtaken by Edmund. I wish Kyle all the best in his matches but being No 1 means nothing. His task is to start winning tournaments and going consistently deep in slams and building his standing in the sport.

Well Stan would obviously never Have been as great as Federer was. But for a couple of years there it was credible to see Stan as the greater grand slam threat. I would have felt that in 2016 anyway.

Edmund could get to that position compared to Murray over the next year. I think he can win a major because he has enough ability to put himself in contention and I think he has a lot of grit, which is in short supply with the new generation

Lionel Hutz wrote:Well Stan would obviously never Have been as great as Federer was. But for a couple of years there it was credible to see Stan as the greater grand slam threat. I would have felt that in 2016 anyway.

Edmund could get to that position compared to Murray over the next year. I think he can win a major because he has enough ability to put himself in contention and I think he has a lot of grit, which is in short supply with the new generation

The next year? So in the next year you think he will establish himself in the top four and reach No 1 (where Andy was until injured) and will win a slam and Masters titles? Not a chance. Heck he hasn't even won one title yet. That is why I say it is one small step at a time for him. Work on his consistency, go deeper in tournaments and see what happens. As for getting up to what Andy has achieved he is not at a stage yet where that is even considered possible.

Caledonian,
Why have you completely inverted what I said?

I just said that Stan obviously didn't get to a level where Federer previously was but nonetheless for a year or two was the greater grand slam threat and Edmund could emulate that in comparison to Murray.

I'm explicitly saying that he will NOT be as good as Murray was before his injuries. Nonetheless in the next year or two could become a greater threat than Murray is in those majors.

Lionel Hutz wrote:Caledonian,
Why have you completely inverted what I said?

I just said that Stan obviously didn't get to a level where Federer previously was but nonetheless for a year or two was the greater grand slam threat and Edmund could emulate that in comparison to Murray.

I'm explicitly saying that he will NOT be as good as Murray was before his injuries. Nonetheless in the next year or two could become a greater threat than Murray is in those majors.

We are at cross-purposes here. Stan (on ranking) was Switzerland's No 1 player in the rankings just as Edmund is now No 1 British player but in the general greater picture ask tennis fans and they'll say Federer is the best Swiss player and Murray is best British player.

Edmund needs to take it step-by-step. Baby steps if you will. First win a singles title, then consistently go deep in Masters and slams and get a Masters title under his belt. Build a base and from there he will be knocking on the door of the top ten in rankings but that is still a long way short of where Murray was at when injury possibly curtailed his career but recent reports offer glimpses of hope.

All of that's true. My only point was that for a while there the rankings weren't lying. Whilst people would always have seen Federer as the better player, for a while there, for me in 2016, I felt that Stan was genuinely the greater grand slam threat. In that sense, he was the best player from Switzerland even if he never hit the heights that Roger hit earlier on his career.

Lionel Hutz wrote:All of that's true. My only point was that for a while there the rankings weren't lying. Whilst people would always have seen Federer as the better player, for a while there, for me in 2016, I felt that Stan was genuinely the greater grand slam threat. In that sense, he was the best player from Switzerland even if he never hit the heights that Roger hit earlier on his career.

Oh yes there was a spell for sure. Totally agree on that. But in fairness to Stan he was reaching slam finals and winning or going deep in Masters events so that was why he could lay claim but Edmund is nowhere near that level yet and has yet to even win a singles title.

Kyle Edmund has already reached a grand slam semi-final, but was hindered in the semi-final with an injury that he probably exacerbated and has been out for over a month. Early days of course, but he is showing promise that he could be in the ball-park for competing at the business end of Grand Slams given the injury woes of many of the top players as they continue to age. I think in Cameron Norrie we have another player that could make an impact. Early days of course but there is some hope for the future of Men's British tennis.