US Open 2018

First topic message reminder :

The draw has been made. Djoko is in Fed's quarter and they could meet in the quarters. Murray has avoided a seed in the first round - he plays Duckworth. Delpo could be his third-round opponent. Cilic v Zverev is a possible quarter final in the bottom half of the draw.
Fed could meet Kyrgios in the third round while Stan the Man faces Dimi in the first round for the second Slam running. Rafa could meet Anderson in the quarters which means someone is going to drop big points as the two were the finalists last year.
The Williams sisters could meet in the third round, with the winner possibly playing Halep after that.
Konta has a tough opener - Garcia of France the number 6 seed. Kyle Edmund, currently losing to Johnson in W-Salem, faces Lorenzi in the first round.

Note:
AO 2018 semi-finalists: Chung Hyeon & Kyle Edmund.
FO 2018: ..................... absent .................. 3R
W 2018: ...................... absent .................. 3R
USO 2018: ...................... 2R .................... 1R

ATP Finals 2017:
Winner & Runner-up: Grigor Dimitrov & David Goffin
AO 2018: ....................... QF .................. 2R
FO 2018: ....................... 3R  .................. 4R
W 2018: ........................ 1R .................. 1R
USO 2018: ..................... 1R .................. 4R+ (still competing)

New Guy Watch: Alex de Minaur  19 years old.  Current ranking #45.  Australian 5'11"
AO 2018: ....................... 1R (four set loss to García López): Wildcard entry.
FO 2018: ....................... 1R (three set loss to Edmund)
W 2018: ........................ 3R (three set loss to Nadal)
USO 2018: ..................... 3R (five set loss to Cilic)

Turned professional 2015.  
Top 500: 2016.11.07
Top 300: 2017.01.30
Top 200: 2017.08.07
Top 100: 2018.06.11
Top 50: 2018.08.06

No interest at all from anyone in Djokovic’s current match ..... ?

Presumably because, in his renewed back-to-best form, this one was only ever going to be routine.

Nishikori didn’t waste too much effort in seeing off Kohlschreiber - which makes Zverev’s previous round loss seem even more of a setback in his quest to get to a Slam Final.

Decent match - Novak looks to be finding the heat difficult, but Sousa played an awful game at 4-5 to donate the second set.

Djokovic using a tactical medical timeout. Such a sophisticated cheat

Federer down 2-1 sets to Millman. Looks like he will not make it to meet Djokovic. Federer is physically spent.

Some truly inspired stuff from Millman (just where is he finding these shots ... ??!!) - but as for Federer ......oh dear. This has to be right up there with the Robredo match back in 2013 as one of his worst-ever USO showings. Seven DF’s already is a higher tally than the whole of his Wimbledon campaign this year.

What has happened since the Kyrgios match, just 48 hours ago, for his level to fall off a cliff like this ......

So we now know that this would be easily his worst-ever USO loss, as measured by opponent’s ranking.

How must Novak be loving this !

If Millman takes it (which would be fully deserved), then he has his story for the grandchildren. But lightning doesn’t strike twice and he will most likely fall in straights to Djokovic.

If Federer somehow escapes then he will have nothing left in the tank anyway, so an easy kill for Djoko.

Bravissimo John Millman.

Your name in lights forever !!!!



What on earth was going on with the Fed .... ???

This is not injury - it is just age.  Wimbledon 2018 and now US Open 2018 - losing in QF (Anderson) and 4R (Millman) respectively.  Federer just cannot get sufficient energy and sufficient movement in his body when it is needed in the second week of a grand slam, when facing a more determined, younger opponent.   Australian Open 2019 will be the last throw of the dice, and then it is decision time.  Does Federer continue for the love of the game or does he announce his retirement sometime in 2019.  Federer still has a few more records he can go for (Connors tournament wins and total number of wins?).

As LuvSport indicated in his article, Federer's key statistics - Breakpoints % saved, Breakpoints % converted, tie breakers % won - are all down from last year - and the only difference is Federer's age. His opponents now know this, which makes them doubly determined to hang in the match. The further Federer progresses into a tournament the less his aging body is able to recover. And this is the result.

Stunning result. I never expected that. I never saw the match but Fed's unforced error count says it all. Huge plaudits for Millman though.

@ No Name Bertie : excellent, succinct analysis

I suspect the time is drawing ever closer when we will have to stop referring to these losses as ‘upsets’.

Once a player is of an age some way beyond the point at which the vast majority retire (are there in fact any older in the current Top 100 ..... ?? ...... can’t be many if so) it’s perhaps no great surprise that he can be so vulnerable on any given day.

The stars certainly aligned for Millman who played out of his skin from set 2, and huge credit to him for hanging tough (AND impressively calm !) throughout

Federer will most likely have to contend with more losses like this. His presser Q&A should be interesting.

Fed said he suffered from the humidity. He served up 10 DFs when he normally produces just one or two a match. Should have won the second set, had a set point in the third and was 4-2 up in the fourth.
It's clear he's not been as good this year as last but it's still been a good year for him. There will be the inevitable questions about his longevity after this, although doubt the player himself knows exactly what's in store.
Path clear for Djoko to get to the final although Cilic could await in the semis.

Quite honestly everybody should have learnt by now never to write Federer off, however this is a shocking loss. I've never seen his first serve struggle so much and he was too impatient in rallies, too eager to end the point early. Tough loss to accept as he was shaping up well in the first 3 rounds and the QF vs Novak would have been interesting. This is yet another occurence he's failed to close out on set or match points which has been a real recurring theme over the past couple of years.

I'm just a bit miffed how he started this year off so well but has fallen away sharply in the last 6 months. Decline is inevitable but I think/hope he has 1 or 2 GS challenges left in him.

In no way would I disagree with others here who are highlighting the inevitable impact of the ageing process, and with it the increasing difficulty of any top athlete to maintain past levels of achievement. In fact I have talked frequently about signs of Federer’s decline over the past few years. So I now question whether he does still have the resource - both mental and physical - to win again on the very biggest stages.

BUT - all that said - I do  feel there was something very, very odd about last night’s meltdown. I cannot recall Federer EVER being troubled by either heat or humidity (to the point where it actually affects his performance), and the first serve winning stats dropped dramatically low (as low as 34% at one stage). Virtually unprecedented, and hard to imagine he would wish to continue on Tour if this sort of pattern became the norm.

Time will tell I guess : a one-off aberration ? or the beginning of the end ?

I think everyone's missing a key element of Federer's supposed 'resurrection', slow courts in Australia and Wimbledon 2017 played considerably slowertg than 2018. Federer needs the extra time the slower courts afford him as his defensive game isn't in the same ballpark as a Nadal, Djokovic or Murray. Essentially Federer got another three majors by cherrypicking his events whilst the other top players whee injured or playing injured.

Federer played predictably and kept serving wide and the drop shots to keep the points short in the end cost him the match. Very sharp contrast to the Kyrgios match.

sirfredperry wrote:There will be the inevitable questions about his longevity after this, although doubt the player himself knows exactly what's in store.

At 38 in 2018 (20 years on tour), he has physically outperformed Muscles, Pancho, Karlovic, Ferrer, and many others and has a stellar career to show for it. In one of his on-court interviews, talking about 'We Europeans...' was an interesting observation.

@ laverfan - yes, a quite astonishing career and of course the legacy is already totally secure regardless of how much more there is to go.

20 Slams, most weeks ever at Number One, and 98 titles sums it up ! Almost surreal that he is actually still at Number 2 at this age. Unprecedented. Most guys on Tour would be more than happy with the season he’s had, even if by his stellar standards it’s been something of a disappointment (ie post-AO defence back in Jan)

Even in these latter twilight years we have witnessed some stuff that nobody believed possible when his tennis obituary was being written by many in the immediate aftermath of that shocker of a USO loss to Robredo back in 2013. Another THREE Slams since then - and more recently, five big wins on the spin against his toughest rival and good friend Rafa.

And what a great piece of history from John Millman. The Aussie media have been going crazy  Only the second Aussie player (since Pat Rafter @ RG) to defeat the Fed at a Slam.

laverfan wrote:... At 38 in 2018 (20 years on tour), he has physically outperformed Muscles, Pancho, Karlovic, Ferrer, and many others and has a stellar career to show for it.  In one of his on-court interviews, talking about 'We Europeans...' was an interesting observation.

37 (not 38): Born Aug 8 1981. Turned professional July 1998 aged 16 years 11 months, so indeed 20 years of the professional tour, but with a childhood filled with tennis ... and he joined the ITF junior tennis circuit in July 1996 aged 14 years 11 month.

So who's gonna win the US Open as we reach the quarters? Doubt we'll see a new winner of the men's, as surely one of Rafa, Djoko, Delpo or Cilic will triumph.
Might be worth putting some money on Osaka for the women's, although winner likely to be either Serena or Stephens.

sirfredperry wrote:So who's gonna win the US Open as we reach the quarters? Doubt we'll see a new winner of the men's, as surely one of Rafa, Djoko, Delpo or Cilic will triumph.
  ....................

Oddschecker quotes as follows :


Djokovic 5/4

Nadal 24/11

Del Potro 6/1

Cilic 12/1

Thiem 25/1

Nishikori 33/1

Isner 40/1

Millman 80/1

My own thoughts .....

- Nadal and Djoko should really be joint favourites (at this stage, at least) ..... I think it’s hard to differentiate their prospects by much

- Cilic and Delpo I would also group more closely together - maybe both should be 6/1

- Thiem and Nishi could each make it IF everything aligned - but it really is a big IF. I would be inclined
to drop them to 10/1

- Isner and Millman (the only unseeded guy still standing !) are probably about right

It’s a high quality line-up, despite absence of both Murray & Fed. Here’s hoping for some matches to reflect that quality

Isner's odds might have shortened when he took the first set off Delpo, but JM has just levelled at one set all.
No repeat triumph for Stephens - she's out in straight sets.

Del Porto through.

Thiem bagels Nadal in the first set.

Nadal broken at 5-3 while serving for the set. Will this become Millman Episode 2?

But he breaks back, so 1 set each.

Nadal up two sets to one, after Thiem served for the third set at 5-4.

Now into a deciding 5th set and on serve at 2-2 after 4 hours of play.

What a fabulous match. Nadal wins the fifth set tie-break in a match that ran for 4 hours 50 minutes. Great performance from Thiem. If he had of won it would have been purely on merit. He pushed Rafa to the absolute limit and Rafa was playing great stuff himself. Candidate for match of the tournament. My heart goes out to Thiem but well played Rafa.

By all accounts, an epic match between Rafa and Thiem. I know some don't like a final set tiebreak at the USO but surely it was fitting here (although tough on the loser of course). It wouldn't have done the winner much good to have an Isner-Anderson-at-Wimbledon type ultra-long final set .
Reports say Thiem played really well. Interestingly, it was his first four-hour-plus match at a Slam, but Rafa's 17th! Rafa now has delpo to face as well as Davis Cup for Spain next week.
Serena bt Pliskova in straight sets and may well win the whole thing

Surely it's only a matter of Time for Thiem?  4 hours 50 minutes?  Both must have great stamina and nerve (we know Nadal has - but he is getting on in years).  

Both have a preferred surface that is clay - indicating the conditions this year at the US Open are not significantly disadvantageous to the clay court specialists - which a) tallies with Roger Federer's observations this year b) although it has to be noted that Nadal has adapted sufficiently to be super successful on non-clay court faster surfaces.

One noticeable aspect of USO this year is that there has been no rain in NY to bring down the heat so far. Thursday and Friday have rain forecasted.

Onto today's matches, surely its asking too much for Millman to follow up performance of a lifetime to defeat Djokovic in his next match. I go for Djoko to win in straight sets, with the Aussie keeping it reasonably close and respectable during 1 or possibly 2 sets.

Regarding Cilic v Nishikori, the match between the two that most will recall is the 2012 US Open final which Cilic won easily in straight sets. However, Nishikori leads the head-to-head 8-6, including a few matches on outdoor hard courts, and in slams the head-to-head is 2:1 in Cilic's favour. I'm actually going for Nishikori to win this one - just looks that bit hungrier out of the 2 players at the moment, following his return from injury. Also, taking into account comments from Bertie and LaverFan above, if the court is indeed playing relatively slower that would favour Nishikori over Cilic. In the womens, I will go for Keys and Osaka to win.

Osaka won 1 and 1 and could go all the way. Cilic and Nishi are one set all. Think you are right, Mr I, about Millman being unable to repeat his heroics against Fed. Should be a comfortable win for Djoko.

Millman is dragging Djokovic physically around.

Djokovic wins in three tough sets.

So it's a repeat of the 2014 USO semi with Nishi facing Djoko. There was an upset then but I think Djoko will come thru' this time.
Cilic does seem to make a habit of chucking matches away. He was up in the second set and lost it, up in the third set tiebreak and lost it and then lost the last two games of the match after coming back from 1-4.
Delpo should give Rafa a tough match and the Spaniard has had some gruelling encounters. But the scheduling, with two days off, will help him and I'm going for a Rafa-Djoko final.
Japan must be getting excited with two players in the semis. Could be an Osaka-Williams final.

I would love another usopen for rafa.... but nole looks the strongest of the 4 at the moment

and to win rafa would have to beat delpo first, and I have the feeling delpo wants this final really bad

Serena and Osaka thru to final in straight sets. I've been tipping Osaka so will have to stick with her for the final, although Serena is favourite.
But Williams jnr came spectacularly unstuck against Kerber at Wimbledon and she has lost finals before despite being favourite. Just hope it's a good match.
In the men's semis today I think Djoko will come thru against Nishi. Rafa is favourite against Delpo but the Spaniard has had some long matches and this one may be another extended encounter.

sirfredperry wrote:   But Williams jnr came spectacularly unstuck against Kerber at Wimbledon and she has lost finals before despite being favourite. Just hope it's a good match.

Williams's movement is slower and slower (very similar to Federer). If she is moved around the court by her opponent, she is very vulnerable.

sirfredperry wrote:   In the men's semis today I think Djoko will come thru against Nishi. Rafa is favourite against Delpo but the Spaniard has had some long matches and this one may be another extended encounter.

If DelPotro wants to win this, he will need to use his FH much more. His BH is open to attack, though. Fewer the openings in his service games, the better off he is.

The women's game lacks competitiveness (tends to be too many one-sided matches), is too noisy, and too many players are wanting to make a fashion statement (and sell their own fashion lines).   One has to applaud Serena's endurance, but it is the power game, and her overwhelming physical attributes that has contributed to her success.   With the rise of the power game in the woman's game, it has become less "skilful" (at least that is how it is perceived when watching) and more noisy.

I have noticed that the men's game has also got louder - but it is in a lower register - so is less obtrusive.  Are men and women's ears tuned to different frequencies?  There is certainly a difference in pitch between the average male and female vocalisations.

naxroy wrote:I would love another usopen for rafa.... but nole looks the strongest of the 4 at the moment

and to win rafa would have to beat delpo first, and I have the feeling delpo wants this final really bad

Nadal wants everything "bad" - even to the point of breaking his body.  I am certain Delpo is going to make it difficult for Nadal, but I think it is Delpo that is more likely to fall apart than Nadal.

For Nadal and Djokovic it is all going to be about increasing their slam tally & improving their legacy.  Nadal has 17 slams, Djokovic 13.  Djokovic could match Sampras' tally here or next year (AO 2019?).

Ps: I said a while ago that Nishikori was my bet for the next new grand slam winner.  I am glad Nishikori is living up to that billing.  I was really surprised by Thiem's showing in the quarter-finals against Nadal.  I had him down as only challenging for the French Open in the near future in the event of a Nadal breakdown.  But he is showing himself to have potential in other slams also.

NNB - Agree with you about the noise of the women's matches but beg to differ about the competitiveness. For the second year running, the four GS will be won by a different player. Over those two years we've had four new GS champions and a number of different number ones.
Also have to go along with your assessment of Rafa's match-win desire, something that's surely been unequalled in the Open Era.

Incredible first set won by Delpo on a breaker 7-3. Both guys crushing the ball

Nadal body falling apart again big problems with the right knee

Delpo takes the second 6/2. Nadal heavily limping

Nadal retires and Del Potro into the final again

The loss for Rafa would have been bad enough but the manner of it makes it worse. Hopefully, it is not a recurrence of the last knee problem. Well done to Juan Martin though. Nobody can begrudge him any success have the turmoil he has gone through to get where he is now.

Straight forqard for Novak in the other semi beating Nishikori in straight sets. He will be the warm favourite to win.

Djoko should beware. Delpo is the only man playing who has a 100% GS final record!
As some predicted, the long hours on court finally caught up with Rafa. He'd had two four-hour-plus matches. Delpo was comparatively fresh. Could be a titanic battle in the final.
A good finish to the season from Djoko and a good start to 2019 and the Serb could get back to number one. Now if we could just get Murray back to winning ways it's as if nothing had changed!

I haven't seen any television footage of Djokovic at the US Open 2018.  How is he looking?  

I saw some highlights of Djokovic at Wimbledon 2018 and he looked very much like a Djokovic - lite.  But that was sufficient to win the title.  I also saw highlights of Djokovic at the semi-final stage of Cincinnati 2018 (against Cilic) - where he also looked like a Djokovic - lite except for a few points in the final set - where there were clear signs of him moving up a gear to something akin to the pre-injury imperious Djokovic.

Ps to SFP: my comment on competitiveness - was in relation to the average woman's match - which tends to be one sided - compared to the man's game.   So even though it may be anyone's guess who wins a particular tournament, when it comes to individual matches, you have a lot more one-sided matches - where one player is completely outplayed, or overpowered, or becomes mentally fried, or is having a particularly bad off day.  There is a certain lack of consistency in performance levels in the women's game compared to the men's game.