The Trump Presidency
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The Trump Presidency
First topic message reminder :
Yes... and also the fact that he has just a touch of olde worlde charm (probably brutally drummed into him from the NY Military Academy) despite his apparently frightening unpredictability in this day and age.
Galted wrote:Pal Joey wrote:Just between us few on here... I have a feeling the Queen likes Trump.
Don't ask me to explain why but their body language seemed to be in a sort of comfortable harmony when they stood beside each other in June or whenever it was. And I think he quite likes all of that pomp and ceremony... as someone who likes being the centre of attention would.
He's a cross between a court jester and a village idiot so she would love him. Probably lets him run round the grounds with the corgis.
Yes... and also the fact that he has just a touch of olde worlde charm (probably brutally drummed into him from the NY Military Academy) despite his apparently frightening unpredictability in this day and age.
Pal Joey- PJ
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Re: The Trump Presidency
Anyway 26 votes have already been counted, in the beautiful state of New Hampshire.
Trump's leading by 16 votes to 10.
Biden may as well concede now...
Trump's leading by 16 votes to 10.
Biden may as well concede now...
Duty281- Posts : 34438
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Re: The Trump Presidency
Trump leads by 174k with registered Party votes in Florida but with independents set to break 60-40 Biden...
Needs to get at least 300k ahead.
Still time but it's running out...
Nevada turnout on the day high...
Needs to get at least 300k ahead.
Still time but it's running out...
Nevada turnout on the day high...
TRUSSMAN66- Posts : 40685
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Re: The Trump Presidency
I wonder what Sarah Palin is doing? Probably checking her bear traps...
Pal Joey- PJ
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Re: The Trump Presidency
Biden's early lead in Arizona down to 52k....four hours left till polls close there..
Heavy early voting but too close to call..
Trump won by 3% in 2016..
Heavy early voting but too close to call..
Trump won by 3% in 2016..
TRUSSMAN66- Posts : 40685
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Re: The Trump Presidency
Would imagine the die hards for either side tend to vote early so relying on the undecideds now
GSC- Posts : 43487
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Re: The Trump Presidency
Georgia exit poll data....Voters number one issue.
38% Economy
22% Racial inequality
14% Covid 19
11% Crime and safety
11% Healthcare..
38% Economy
22% Racial inequality
14% Covid 19
11% Crime and safety
11% Healthcare..
TRUSSMAN66- Posts : 40685
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Re: The Trump Presidency
So for 62% it's not the economy.
JuliusHMarx- julius
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Re: The Trump Presidency
Fivethirtyeight calling Florida for Biden.
Over....If that's the case.
Over....If that's the case.
TRUSSMAN66- Posts : 40685
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Re: The Trump Presidency
Trump needs at least a lead of 300k based on NPA forecasts..which give Biden 60-40.
40 mins to close of play....lead is 209.3k
40 mins to close of play....lead is 209.3k
TRUSSMAN66- Posts : 40685
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Re: The Trump Presidency
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Trump needs at least a lead of 300k based on NPA forecasts..which give Biden 60-40.
40 mins to close of play....lead is 209.3k
Which site(s) are you looking at?
JuliusHMarx- julius
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Re: The Trump Presidency
I think he's looking at @politics_polls on Twitter.
Actual results will start coming in from Florida in just over 15 minutes. Good live map below:
https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2020-us-presidential-election-results-live-map/
Actual results will start coming in from Florida in just over 15 minutes. Good live map below:
https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2020-us-presidential-election-results-live-map/
Duty281- Posts : 34438
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Re: The Trump Presidency
Alternatively type in the state with 2020 after it and you will get an up to date score.
TRUSSMAN66- Posts : 40685
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Re: The Trump Presidency
Trump getting good early results in Florida. Early ballots coming in and Biden only has a slender lead.
NYT forecasting 81% probability that Trump takes Florida.
NYT forecasting 81% probability that Trump takes Florida.
Duty281- Posts : 34438
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Re: The Trump Presidency
57% in Florida..
Biden 50
Trump 49
Biden 50
Trump 49
TRUSSMAN66- Posts : 40685
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Re: The Trump Presidency
That's all but sealed up Florida for Trump, then, with the heavily Republican counties yet to declare. Seems he's won it by a bigger margin than in 2016, if the NYT needle is accurate.
Duty281- Posts : 34438
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Re: The Trump Presidency
76%....Florida...
Biden 50.4
Trump 48.7
Very close..
Biden 50.4
Trump 48.7
Very close..
TRUSSMAN66- Posts : 40685
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Re: The Trump Presidency
Not close at all. Biden's meant to have a huge lead at this stage in Florida, NYT saying greater than 95% chance Trump wins Florida.
Trump near-enough favourite on the exchanges now.
Trump near-enough favourite on the exchanges now.
Duty281- Posts : 34438
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Re: The Trump Presidency
49.9 v 49.3 Biden....Still some Democrat precincts left...But yes closer than expected...
TRUSSMAN66- Posts : 40685
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Re: The Trump Presidency
North Carolina counting now....Bellwether..
TRUSSMAN66- Posts : 40685
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Re: The Trump Presidency
Biden underperforming with the Hispanic vote in South Florida.
Miami Dade..
Clinton 64-34 2016
Biden 54-45....2020 with 84% in.
Miami Dade..
Clinton 64-34 2016
Biden 54-45....2020 with 84% in.
Last edited by TRUSSMAN66 on Wed 04 Nov 2020, 1:02 am; edited 1 time in total
TRUSSMAN66- Posts : 40685
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Re: The Trump Presidency
As expected, really, the polls said Trump was doing better amongst non-white voters (compared to 2016, not Biden), but few paid any attention.
Trump now favourite to win the Presidency with the odds-makers. NYT forecasting a 76% chance he wins the key state of Georgia.
Trump now favourite to win the Presidency with the odds-makers. NYT forecasting a 76% chance he wins the key state of Georgia.
Duty281- Posts : 34438
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Re: The Trump Presidency
None of the rust belt in yet...
Trump takes lead in Florida.
Trump takes lead in Florida.
TRUSSMAN66- Posts : 40685
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Re: The Trump Presidency
Florida's in the bank for Trump. Georgia looks fairly safe as does North Carolina, Texas also looking good for him on the early returns. Might be some early concerns about Ohio, but there's still the Election Day vote to come.
Arizona to start announcing soon, as will Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Virginia looking odd at the moment. Meant to be safe Democrat, but it's 58-40 Trump after a third of the vote is counted.
Arizona to start announcing soon, as will Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Virginia looking odd at the moment. Meant to be safe Democrat, but it's 58-40 Trump after a third of the vote is counted.
Duty281- Posts : 34438
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Re: The Trump Presidency
Ohio's looking strong again for Trump, he can relax. Add that to the tally along with Florida/Georgia/NC/Texas.
Early votes for Biden in Pennsylvania not looking as strong as polling forecasts (no surprise), and Trump's probably loving the early numbers coming out of Michigan.
Eyes soon to be on Arizona/Minnesota/Wisconsin/Nevada.
Early votes for Biden in Pennsylvania not looking as strong as polling forecasts (no surprise), and Trump's probably loving the early numbers coming out of Michigan.
Eyes soon to be on Arizona/Minnesota/Wisconsin/Nevada.
Duty281- Posts : 34438
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Re: The Trump Presidency
Not sure how you can be so confident your man Donald is safe in NC , Duty ? Figures I am seeing suggest otherwise , though I may be missing something. Certainly he must be happy with Florida but I'm not too surprised by that.
Biden has a nice lead in Ohio but commentators seem to think this may not last. Texas early lead for Biden so although that one is unlikely to switch I am not sure why you say it is looking good for Trump?
Oddly no-one seems bothered by the Trump (apparently significant ?) lead in Virginia ...presume the locals know their details better.
Way too early to pick an overall winner , surely. But if Pennsylvania continues as it has started I imagine the Democrats will be confident ...
Biden has a nice lead in Ohio but commentators seem to think this may not last. Texas early lead for Biden so although that one is unlikely to switch I am not sure why you say it is looking good for Trump?
Oddly no-one seems bothered by the Trump (apparently significant ?) lead in Virginia ...presume the locals know their details better.
Way too early to pick an overall winner , surely. But if Pennsylvania continues as it has started I imagine the Democrats will be confident ...
alfie- Posts : 21846
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Re: The Trump Presidency
NYT needle up to 88% chance for Trump in NC.
It's because Biden strongholds are announced first (combination of early votes being reported first, and urban areas earlier than rural areas), then Trump strongholds.
So in Texas, you expect Biden to grab the lead early, then Trump to pile up the later votes. This is true in the majority of the states. For another example, in Ohio they've counted all the early votes now, what's left is the Election Day votes where Trump is forecast to have a double digit % lead.
Trump now 8/11 to win the election with Bet365.
It's because Biden strongholds are announced first (combination of early votes being reported first, and urban areas earlier than rural areas), then Trump strongholds.
So in Texas, you expect Biden to grab the lead early, then Trump to pile up the later votes. This is true in the majority of the states. For another example, in Ohio they've counted all the early votes now, what's left is the Election Day votes where Trump is forecast to have a double digit % lead.
Trump now 8/11 to win the election with Bet365.
Duty281- Posts : 34438
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Re: The Trump Presidency
Make those odds 4/9 now. I'm ready to say Trump's won this election, barring a miraculous turnaround from Biden.
Duty281- Posts : 34438
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Re: The Trump Presidency
No , I get that early results don't tell the whole picture : but it seems to me that you are perhaps seeing what you want to see , with some outlets projecting one way and others leaning in the opposite direction : just because a trend is expected to turn around doesn't necessarily mean it will turn far enough . We have been told for ages that results in many states can swirl around a lot before a true picture emerges but I am waiting until I see a bit more conviction from the unbiased observers before making any assumptions.
( I presume the lack of Democrat concern over Virginia is based on similar factors) But with so many votes still to count in most of these states it still seems to me far too early to start calling the result.
( I presume the lack of Democrat concern over Virginia is based on similar factors) But with so many votes still to count in most of these states it still seems to me far too early to start calling the result.
alfie- Posts : 21846
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Re: The Trump Presidency
Fairs, but it's not just me.
I mean NC is 1/25 with BET365 to go Republican. Georgia is 1/8. Ohio is 1/5. Texas is so Republican you can't get odds on it. Pennsylvania is now 4/6 to go Republican.
I mean NC is 1/25 with BET365 to go Republican. Georgia is 1/8. Ohio is 1/5. Texas is so Republican you can't get odds on it. Pennsylvania is now 4/6 to go Republican.
Duty281- Posts : 34438
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Re: The Trump Presidency
North Carolina is 90% chance Biden according to Fox
90% chance Trump according to NYT..
Still fancy Biden to win the White house.
90% chance Trump according to NYT..
Still fancy Biden to win the White house.
TRUSSMAN66- Posts : 40685
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Re: The Trump Presidency
I suppose the bookies generally do well But they aren't foolproof.
I do have to say I am more nervous than I'd hoped , looking at the figures so far , that the spectre of another four years of this reality show narcissist is still looming.
We will see. I still think (as I have all along ) it will probably be decided in Pennsylvania ...which might take a while.
I do have to say I am more nervous than I'd hoped , looking at the figures so far , that the spectre of another four years of this reality show narcissist is still looming.
We will see. I still think (as I have all along ) it will probably be decided in Pennsylvania ...which might take a while.
alfie- Posts : 21846
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Re: The Trump Presidency
Get your money on Truss, if you still fancy him. He's out to 5/2 now, with Trump tightening to 1/3.
Michigan's numbers looking strong for Trump, Pennsylvania looking good too.
Michigan's numbers looking strong for Trump, Pennsylvania looking good too.
Duty281- Posts : 34438
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Re: The Trump Presidency
Got to hand it to you Duty you are closer than I was whoever wins.
Trump just goes ahead in Penn...25% in.
Trump just goes ahead in Penn...25% in.
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Re: The Trump Presidency
Trump's now a strong favourite in Pennsylvania, and pretty decently set in Michigan and Wisconsin too. He's breezed into the lead in Ohio, Texas and NC.
Say goodnight, Joe.
Say goodnight, Joe.
Duty281- Posts : 34438
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Re: The Trump Presidency
The early voting in Arizona is released, comprises around 70% of the turnout. Biden leads 55-44.
That's not enough.
That's not enough.
Duty281- Posts : 34438
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Re: The Trump Presidency
The thing with Pennsylvania is Alfie, the early voting (19% so far) is mainly 3 counties around Philadelphia; Philadelphia 89% Dem, Montgomery 85% Dem, Delaware (County) 85% Dem. Then there's Centre County 79% Dem and Allegheny 80% Dem.
Just about every other rural county will go Trump's way - 60%-80% say. Currently 490,000 have voted for Joe... 290,000 for Trump - hence the 63% - 36% Biden's way with only 19% counted. Most are early pre polling day votes and on the day counting from the large urban areas. The rural counties go the other way is what's important to note.
The tricky bit will be the postal votes trickling in over the next few days... I've even heard up until 7th Nov?... so that is when Biden may claw things back... and then Trump will probably kick up a fuss - even though the Court has already ruled that late votes will be accepted.
Confusing isn't it?
Anyway check out the map, go to Penn... and click on the counties... you'll see what I mean.
https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2020-us-presidential-election-results-live-map/
Jeez... that map has changed quickly. Filling up with red!
Just about every other rural county will go Trump's way - 60%-80% say. Currently 490,000 have voted for Joe... 290,000 for Trump - hence the 63% - 36% Biden's way with only 19% counted. Most are early pre polling day votes and on the day counting from the large urban areas. The rural counties go the other way is what's important to note.
The tricky bit will be the postal votes trickling in over the next few days... I've even heard up until 7th Nov?... so that is when Biden may claw things back... and then Trump will probably kick up a fuss - even though the Court has already ruled that late votes will be accepted.
Confusing isn't it?
Anyway check out the map, go to Penn... and click on the counties... you'll see what I mean.
https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2020-us-presidential-election-results-live-map/
Jeez... that map has changed quickly. Filling up with red!
Last edited by Pal Joey on Wed 04 Nov 2020, 3:22 am; edited 1 time in total
Pal Joey- PJ
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Re: The Trump Presidency
The count in Pennsylvania could drag on as long as the 23rd of this month. North Carolina is accepting postal ballots for another 8 days (provided they were sent by the 3rd).
So it could drag on a while unless Trump makes it safe.
So it could drag on a while unless Trump makes it safe.
Last edited by Duty281 on Wed 04 Nov 2020, 3:22 am; edited 1 time in total
Duty281- Posts : 34438
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Re: The Trump Presidency
Pundits don't seem to be factoring in that the Arizona vote currently recorded is the early stuff. As many as three-quarters of the remaining 25% are going for Trump, could be a half a million Republican votes in there.
Biden still in with a faint chance of taking Georgia as we start to see the mail ballots. But highly unlikely.
Trump currently leading the pop. vote by three million, but California still to come.
Biden still in with a faint chance of taking Georgia as we start to see the mail ballots. But highly unlikely.
Trump currently leading the pop. vote by three million, but California still to come.
Duty281- Posts : 34438
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Re: The Trump Presidency
Trump has a 4% lead in Wisconsin, about half the votes called. 14% lead in Pennsylvania, but most of the mail ballots (25-33% of the overall turnout) not yet counted. 12% lead in Michigan. Soon to take the lead in Iowa.
Biden seems to have Minnesota and New Hampshire tied up. Waiting on Arizona and Nevada.
Total reversal as Democrat figures are hoping to drag the election out for days, while the Republicans want a swift conclusion.
Can't understand why Florida, Texas and Ohio haven't been called yet. Unassailable lead for Trump in those states.
Biden seems to have Minnesota and New Hampshire tied up. Waiting on Arizona and Nevada.
Total reversal as Democrat figures are hoping to drag the election out for days, while the Republicans want a swift conclusion.
Can't understand why Florida, Texas and Ohio haven't been called yet. Unassailable lead for Trump in those states.
Duty281- Posts : 34438
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Re: The Trump Presidency
Pretty clear this won't be declared today...
For all the sound and fury not one state has actually switched yet from 2016. Not sure anyone really knows what will come of all the later votes on the key states ; though it is fair to say the Republicans will be optimistic given the figures are largely contradicting a lot of the advance polling.
Obviously if Biden falls short in those rust belt states it is all over but I think that is far from a done deal. Trump has a nice lead in Penn but a lot of mail votes to be counted (cue legal battles if they get Joe over the line ?)
Fascinating possibility if Biden takes Arizona and yet loses Pennsylvania...could end up that the split Electoral College vote in Nebraska might decide the whole race...
-------
https://www.606v2.com/viewtopic.php?t=69820
For all the sound and fury not one state has actually switched yet from 2016. Not sure anyone really knows what will come of all the later votes on the key states ; though it is fair to say the Republicans will be optimistic given the figures are largely contradicting a lot of the advance polling.
Obviously if Biden falls short in those rust belt states it is all over but I think that is far from a done deal. Trump has a nice lead in Penn but a lot of mail votes to be counted (cue legal battles if they get Joe over the line ?)
Fascinating possibility if Biden takes Arizona and yet loses Pennsylvania...could end up that the split Electoral College vote in Nebraska might decide the whole race...
-------
https://www.606v2.com/viewtopic.php?t=69820
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