Stuff Power Rankings - RWC Predictions

https://interactives.stuff.co.nz/2019/rugby-world-cup/power-rankings/

Another of those algorithm based rankings systems. You can read how they calculate the numbers and then how they turn those into predictions so I shall not rehash that.

Quarter Final Odds

New Zealand 70% v Ireland 30%
England 75% Australia 25%
Wales 82% France 18%
South Africa 76% Japan 24%


Finalists Odds

Wales 54%
New Zealand 47%
England 36%
South Africa 34%
Ireland 12%
Japan 7%
Australia 5%
France 5%



Winner Odds

New Zealand 35%
England 25%
Wales 23%
South Africa 8%
Ireland 5%
Australia 2%
France 1%
Japan 1%


So Wales the favourites now to make the final, NZ favourites to win. The algorithms used suggest that the winner is twice as likely to come from the New Zealand half of teh draw than it is to come from teh Wales half.

If someone wins form the non-New Zealand side of the draw, does it diminish the championship?

Only if it is South Africa, there has already been comments about how fortunate SA is not having to play Ireland.

Guardians take on power rankings

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2019/oct/16/rugby-union-power-rankings-all-blacks-england-ireland-wales-japan-australia-france-south-africa

Old Man wrote:Only if it is South Africa, there has already been comments about how fortunate SA is not having to play Ireland.

Thats only because NZ have to play Ireland. If SA were playing Ireland, Ireland would be considered useless in the stuff comments.

The Guardian article is full of nonsense, though. England’s schedule - 5 Tier 1 games on 5 successive weekends - was not “ideal”. 

I subscribe to the 1014’s view that no-one has ever won 5 matches against tier 1 competition without a break. A week off is exactly what they needed to ensure that the squad arrives in the knockout rounds in the best shape. 

Unfortunately, it probably benefits the All Blacks in the same way.

The Stuff power ratings look about right, though.

tigertattie wrote:If someone wins form the non-New Zealand side of the draw, does it diminish the championship?

Quite often the ‘best’ team doesn’t win the cup.

But you can only beat the team in front of you on any given day.

Better still, if NZ beat Ireland by 3 and then go on and win the final by 15 or 20, is Ireland back to being second best side in the world with official bragging rights to the old tale: "But they only beat us by.....".

I'd say so, except I can't see it being by 3.

Draw then.....

Incidentally what happens in a draw situation? Penalty shootout?

Extra time I believe. Then the penalty system has changed. It becomes a kick from the 22, then the 10m line, then the halfway I think - all with one nominated kicker. Then I think they kick from halfway until someone misses. But I might be a bit off there...

Cool, I’d back Mo’unga to take that. Have seen Sexton miss an easy winning kick in 2013.

I have to admire your confidence taylorman, it is unfailing.

But then if my team had been as successful as yours over the past decade I suppose one has the right to expect a win 90% of the time.

Yep, Mo’unga also got 8 from 8 vs Canada as well.havent seen the kicking percentages across the sides but I’m sure he’ll be up there.

But back to the confidence thing. This side is clearly picked to score tries, to dominate, to end the match as a contest early. It follows that AB fans in supporting it are going to be just as outwardly confident...it matches the theme...loud, fast, unrelenting.

The Irish conservative game is also reflected here by reserved comments. A quiet confidence is the most you’ll get. ‘Ireland will rip out the AB throats and send them back to kiwi land’ doesn’t resonate with the side, or it’s fans.

NZ fans ‘have to be confident’ in that respect. It gels with the sides selection, and outrageous gameplay which will be to create as much chaos as is possible.

For this match Ireland should have backed Larmour at fullback. Kearney has played us many, many times and is in our eyes strictly average. He’s no Smith and is certainly no Cullen or Barrett. This is the World Cup quarter. Average won’t cut it. Larmour from his pool matches is clearly the most talented outside back, yet there are ‘reservations’ he’s not ‘ready’ in the Schmidt camp, to start.

Huge opportunity missed. ABs could just win this thing by simply being the only side to push the boat out, while the others wait for the rain to stop.

Of course, it could all collapse into a mess.

But I know which approach I’d rather have.

Taylorman wrote:Cool, I’d back Mo’unga to take that. Have seen Sexton miss an easy winning kick in 2013.

I saw Mo'unga miss a tackle in 2011.

Pressure does funny things to kickers. Another reason for that inexperience being potentially costly.

Also, someone might have to actually check on the rules as I'm not sure that's strictly true, I just know they changed them from football style 5 man shootouts, to picking your goalkicker and taking kicks until one misses...I think?

You can’t quantify ‘experience’. It doesn’t mean ‘time’ or world cups alone. Mo’unga has slowly but surely gained confidence in the AB environment in a short timeframe. He’s also been the mainstay and goalkicker for three winning seasons with probably the best club side in the professional era. He’s ‘used’ to winning, at all levels. He’s used to pressure.

In that respect, I don’t think there’s a more experienced 10 in this tournament.

You're really tying yourself in knots now! Hehehe...

SecretFly wrote:Draw then.....

Incidentally what happens in a draw situation?  Penalty shootout?

5. Tied Matches

Knock-out Matches
For quarter-finals, semi-finals, the Bronze Final and the Final, if Teams are tied at fulltime, then the winner shall be determined through the following sequential criteria;

Extra time
Following an interval of 5 minutes, extra time of 10 minutes each way (with an interval of 5 minutes) shall be played in full (referred to in this Section as “Normal Extra Time”). For the avoidance of doubt,Teams must remain on the Field of Play. The Match referee will conduct a coin toss during the 5-minute interval to determine which Team will kick-off and the direction of play. Team B will call the toss, in line with Section 7. The Team captain who wins the coin toss can either:
nominate to kick-off, therefore the other Team must choose the direction they will play
nominate their preferred direction of play, therefore the other Team must kick-off

Sudden death
If the scores are tied at the conclusion of Normal Extra Time, then following an interval of 5 minutes a further extra time of 10 minutes maximum shall be played (referred to in this Section as “Sudden Death”). At the end of Normal Extra Time, Teams swap ends and whichever Team kicked off the first half of Normal Extra Time also kicks off Sudden Death. During this period the first Team to score any points shall be declared the winner;

Kicking competition
If after this Sudden Death period no winner can be declared, a kicking competition will be organised between the two Teams as set out in Section 5.2.6. The winner of that competition shall be declared the winner of the Match.

Source: https://www.rugbyworldcup.com/tournament-rules

If you look at the source, the exact rules of the kicking competition are laid out. There are loads of them. But basically:

- Best of 5 kicks and then sudden death
- Kicks from 3 positions - all on the 22. Position 1 is dead in front, Position 2 is on the left hand 15m line and Position 3 is on the right hand 15m line. Kicks are taken from Position 1, then 2, then 3, then 1 again and you just cycle through the positions until the competition is over.

Taylorman wrote:You can’t quantify ‘experience’. It doesn’t mean ‘time’ or world cups alone. Mo’unga has slowly but surely gained confidence in the AB environment in a short timeframe. He’s also been the mainstay and goalkicker for three winning seasons with probably the best club side in the professional era. He’s ‘used’ to winning, at all levels. He’s used to pressure.

In that respect, I don’t think there’s a more experienced 10 in this tournament.

Sexton has nearly twice as many international caps as he does games for crusaders. Two lions tours, 1 as first choice FH (which they won). 
He won the HC as starting FH when Mo'unga was still 15 and has been playing pro rugby since Mo'unga was 12. 
4 Heineken cups, 3 six nations, win and a draw with the lions, 4 pro 14s. Churcchill cup , ECC, schools cup ...all levels.

I'm finding it hard to see how he has less experience of playing with the pressure of being in winning sides. 

He might be a better player than the broken down wreck that is Sexton recently but trying to make a case for him being more experienced even by such an esoteric standard is kinda weak. And only being used to playing in dominant sides maybe isn't an advantage in a world cup where the top 5 are as evenly matched as we have seen in a long time.

2013 - if Sexton kicks that late penalty Ireland go 8 up & would have won that game.
2016 - Chicago; No one thing would have changed that game. Ireland were just the better team.
2016 - Dublin; tackle on Henshaw, it did change the game.
2018 - if Read doesn't knock on from Stockdale's kick it might have changed the game. Within 5 minutes he scores a beauty of a try.

Small margins.
In 3/4 games one single event changed the outcome of these head to head.
In Schmidt's big games for Claremont, Leinster & Ireland his teams have started very well & very hard & fast. This WC has a theme with early tries for Ireland.
I'd be very surprised if Ireland don't have at least 1 driving maul in the AB's 22 within the 1st 5/10 minutes.
If Ireland play like we all know they can they will win this game.

Kiwis love to bring up the Read knock on, however, Ireland were also held up over the line a couple of times themselves so also came quite close to scoring more tries.

Ninjarugby wrote:2013 - if Sexton kicks that late penalty Ireland go 8 up & would have won that game.
2016 -  Chicago; No one thing would have changed that game. Ireland were just the better team.
2016 -  Dublin; tackle on Henshaw, it did change the game.
2018 - if Read doesn't knock on from Stockdale's kick it might have changed the game. Within 5 minutes he scores a beauty of a try.

Small margins.
In 3/4 games one single event changed the outcome of these head to head.
In Schmidt's big games for Claremont, Leinster & Ireland his teams have started very well & very hard & fast. This WC has a theme with early tries for Ireland.
I'd be very surprised if Ireland don't have at least 1 driving maul in the AB's 22 within the 1st 5/10 minutes.
If Ireland play like we all know they can they will win this game.

I think there are numerous such events in a match, it is a culmination of moments that take advantage of errors, bounce of the ball, refereeing decisions etc. Ultimately game day isn’t predictable.

Collapse2005 wrote:Kiwis love to bring up the Read knock on, however, Ireland were also held up over the line a couple of times themselves so also came quite close to scoring more tries.

Do we? I don’t even remember it, let alone bring it up.

Eesh, the drawn game rules are even more convoluted than I realised. 110 minute games with sudden death. Ouch. And then kicks...have to think there will never, ever be a penalty shootout again, really...but you never know.