Most likely team to get an upset and beat a better team this weekend?

by maestegmafia Thu 17 Oct 2019, 6:15 pm

England, Japan, New Zealand and Wales went through top of their groups.

New Zealand 1
Wales 2
England 3
Ireland 4
South Africa 5
Australia 6
Japan 7
France 8

New Zealand vs Ireland
England vs Australia
South Africa vs Japan
Wales vs France

I figure out of the eight teams the four underdogs are therefor:-

Australia
Ireland
France
Japan

by Guest Thu 17 Oct 2019, 6:42 pm

If England, Wales, SA, and NZ are favourites, it probably goes Australia, France, Ireland, Japan for me. Close between the first 2 and second 2 tho.

by tigertattie Thu 17 Oct 2019, 7:19 pm

Cliche but this is knock out rugby

Any of the teams can beat any of the others with the possible exception of France who really aren’t looking very good (even Scotland beat them in their last meeting)

by maestegmafia Thu 17 Oct 2019, 7:25 pm

tigertattie wrote:Cliche but this is knock out rugby

Any of the teams can beat any of the others with the possible exception of France who really aren’t looking very good (even Scotland beat them in their last meeting)

Any could question is who do you think most likely though?

by Guest Thu 17 Oct 2019, 7:26 pm

France.

by maestegmafia Thu 17 Oct 2019, 7:27 pm

The Oracle wrote:France.

Probably...! Ha ha ha...!

by Taylorman Thu 17 Oct 2019, 7:28 pm

Japan deserve the most likeliest underdog tag, because they’ve already won two from that position. They’re here to upset, and are by far the experts at it at this comp.

Ireland deserve it the least. They’re the only ones who have been upset, and don’t have an upset style to them. Conservatism in the extreme. Upset via predictability? Plus they have the toughest ask. Beating the defending champs.

Oz and France by their unpredictable nature take the middle spots.

by maestegmafia Thu 17 Oct 2019, 7:34 pm

Taylorman wrote:Japan deserve the most likeliest underdog tag, because they’ve already won two from that position. They’re here to upset, and are by far the experts at it at this comp.

Ireland deserve it the least. They’re the only ones who have been upset, and don’t have an upset style to them. Conservatism in the extreme. Upset via predictability? Plus they have the toughest ask. Beating the defending champs.

Oz and France by their unpredictable nature take the middle spots.

I agree Ireland beating the ABs would be the biggest upset. Despite their results against you guys over the last few years, their form hasn’t been as good since last autumn and like you said, already beaten by Japan, a result against the ABs would be a huge surprise.

by **profitius** Thu 17 Oct 2019, 7:34 pm

The women of NZ will be praying its not Ireland. Domestic violence reports go through the roof when NZ get knocked out of world cups.

by Guest Thu 17 Oct 2019, 7:41 pm

Taylorman wrote:Japan deserve the most likeliest underdog tag, because it would be great for the hosts to get through and everyone loves an upset and the tier 2 side knocking SA out would be amazing oh and also they've basically Kiwis.

Ireland deserve it the least because I really, really, REALLY don't want them to beat the ABs...

by Taylorman Thu 17 Oct 2019, 7:52 pm

profitius wrote:The women of NZ will be praying its not Ireland. Domestic violence reports go through the roof when NZ get knocked out of world cups.

We can do without moronic comments, are there any women left in Ireland after 8 works cups? Just as pathetic. Grow up.

by Gooseberry Thu 17 Oct 2019, 7:57 pm

I'd say Aus.
I cant see Japan having another miracle game in them.
Ireland will have to step their play a ot even if it not best all blacks side weve seen in recent world cups.
France are a bit of an unknown but hav shown so little for so long it's hard to imagine them turning over such a succesful Welsh side.
Aus are the best of the underdogs. I expect england to win but if they make the final it will be the hard way.

by Taylorman Thu 17 Oct 2019, 8:02 pm

miaow wrote:
Taylorman wrote:Japan deserve the most likeliest underdog tag, because it would be great for the hosts to get through and everyone loves an upset and the tier 2 side knocking SA out would be amazing oh and also they've basically Kiwis.

Ireland deserve it the least because I really, really, REALLY don't want them to beat the ABs...

Ha ha really really true but I still take the OP at face value. Japan are twice proven underdogs. I'd say they have more grounds for underdog title. The middle four are true to form, and Ireland is the only of the 8 that's victim of an underdog, and play the faves.

Surely a reasonable basis for rating them.

Now if it were about the biggest upset Ireland would probably be first or second, based on this tournaments results, with France I guess.

As a rule for me though, France ate the WCup upset kings, so normally I would go with that.

by Taylorman Thu 17 Oct 2019, 8:08 pm

Gooseberry wrote:I'd say Aus.
I cant see Japan having another miracle game in them.
Ireland will have to step their play a ot even if it not best all blacks side weve seen in recent world cups.
France are a bit of an unknown but hav shown so little for so long it's hard to imagine them turning over such a succesful Welsh side.
Aus are the best of the underdogs. I expect england to win but if they make the final it will be the hard way.

I'm banking on this AB side being better than the 2015 side in terms of their knockout wins. Hansen wants to go out in a blaze of glory. Either way, with this u believably and deliberate naive selection, he's going to go out in a blaze of some sort.
Even for the ABs this side is right out there, banking on the rest of the rugby world sitting still, well within their comfort zones.

by mikey_dragon Thu 17 Oct 2019, 8:14 pm

Taylorman wrote:
profitius wrote:The women of NZ will be praying its not Ireland. Domestic violence reports go through the roof when NZ get knocked out of world cups.

We can do without moronic comments, are there any women left in Ireland after 8 works cups? Just as pathetic. Grow up.

Interesting if true, as in there are some stats to back that up. If not then yeah it's just an unnecessary comment.

My gripe with kiwi's is that they lead the way on all the online forums, by quite some distance, in being the least gracious fans before and after a match. There might be a subtle truth in the unnecessary comment somewhere.

by Taylorman Thu 17 Oct 2019, 8:22 pm

After a match? Rubbish. Got stats for that, now you're asking for them. Look at Chicago and last year here, you will find kiwis on any forum praising the win.
Practice what you preach... Show the evidence.

Go back to Chicago here, then Dublin two weeks later. Kiwis were full of praise then in the return match the Irish fans were the most obnoxious lot out. Couldn't take what they'd just given.

The AB's cheated, were too aggressive blah blah. If anything its the ABs that hardly get praised after a win, its all about not being good enough, back to the drawing board, we need a new coach etc etc. Sure they win a lot but to isolate a post match fan argument and suggest kiwis are the worst is just not correct. One thing 2007 taught us was to praise other sides when they beat us. We have our moments, like everyone else, 2007, the Lions third, but three or four over a decade or two compared to say Oz fans who seem to have a Bad Ref story after just about every match.

by SecretFly Thu 17 Oct 2019, 8:26 pm

Japan the 'underdog' by winning their pool in style, and meeting a SA.

Hmmm. Okay, I'll fall for it. They're the underdog - but Only going on overall records. They are by no means underdog in terms of performances at this WC so far when compared to SA who are also in good form.

I don't see the Wales v France or England v Australia games as underdog games at all. Just can't make myself think of them in that regard at all. Quality too similar with perhaps coaching being the main dividing factor.

ABs v Ireland. Okay, I'll accept the underdog description. We've only beaten them twice and they are usually up there at the very top of the tree, year after year, decade after decade. We'd need to beat them another four of five times in a brief period of years before we could offload the underdog status.

But... would it be an upset if Ireland won? Hardly. We're absolutely renowned for the epic big game surge after so-so periods of mediocrity. I mean it isn't exactly unheard of that Ireland can 'surprisingly' hit teams out of the blue with an unstoppable train ride to oblivion. So really, no surprise if it were to happen again. Underdogs, yes. Upset - hardly.

by maestegmafia Thu 17 Oct 2019, 8:59 pm

SecretFly wrote:Japan the 'underdog' by winning their pool in style, and meeting a SA.

Hmmm. Okay, I'll fall for it. They're the underdog - but Only going on overall records. They are by no means underdog in terms of performances at this WC so far when compared to SA who are also in good form.

I don't see the Wales v France or England v Australia games as underdog games at all. Just can't make myself think of them in that regard at all. Quality too similar with perhaps coaching being the main dividing factor.

ABs v Ireland. Okay, I'll accept the underdog description. We've only beaten them twice and they are usually up there at the very top of the tree, year after year, decade after decade. We'd need to beat them another four of five times in a brief period of years before we could offload the underdog status.

But... would it be an upset if Ireland won? Hardly. We're absolutely renowned for the epic big game surge after so-so periods of mediocrity. I mean it isn't exactly unheard of that Ireland can 'surprisingly' hit teams out of the blue with an unstoppable train ride to oblivion. So really, no surprise if it were to happen again. Underdogs, yes. Upset - hardly.

In this weeks WR rankings

South Africa are 3.67 points ahead of Japan
England are 4.61 points ahead of Australia
New Zealand are 5.05 points ahead of Ireland
Wales are 7.49 points ahead of France

So using the rankings as a basis Japan are the most likely team to beat their opponents and France the least likely.

by Taylorman Thu 17 Oct 2019, 9:12 pm

Yes, sounds about right though personally I would reverse Ireland and France simply due to their respective last 8 records, France waaaaaaaaay ahead of Ireland on that count.

by SecretFly Thu 17 Oct 2019, 9:14 pm

Yes, maes, but ironic then that I'd give France more or a chance than Japan.

Whatever anybody says about France, it's a WC, they'll be interested. They'll remain interested for 80. Wales will have them on structure and team tactics but France at WCs .... they'll be interested for 80.

Japan. It's strange. I wouldn't be shocked if the beat SA. But I have to say, just going on hunches - I'd be less shocked if SA trounced them. I feel they might hit a wall and realise they have a way to go yet. But.......

Maybe this is how QFs should be as I can imagine wins for all sides. Visualising things in my head, I see no 'haven't got a hope' sides. On their day and all that jazz.....

by SecretFly Thu 17 Oct 2019, 9:19 pm

Taylorman wrote:Yes, sounds about right though personally I would reverse Ireland and France simply due to their respective last 8 records, France waaaaaaaaay ahead of Ireland on that count.

?

Reverse?

New Zealand 5.05 ahead of [France]
Wales 7.49 ahead of [Ireland]

Is that what you mean?

by Guest Thu 17 Oct 2019, 9:27 pm

Taylorman wrote:
profitius wrote:The women of NZ will be praying its not Ireland. Domestic violence reports go through the roof when NZ get knocked out of world cups.

We can do without moronic comments, are there any women left in Ireland after 8 works cups? Just as pathetic. Grow up.

This comment's way off the mark tbh. It's a bit sh1t to use it as a point of banter, but reacting like that - grow up, both of you. You sound like sniggering schoolboys who wouldnt repeat it anywhere but the back of the school bus.

by maestegmafia Thu 17 Oct 2019, 9:29 pm

SecretFly wrote:Yes, maes, but ironic then that I'd give France more or a chance than Japan.

Whatever anybody says about France, it's a WC, they'll be interested. They'll remain interested for 80. Wales will have them on structure and team tactics but France at WCs .... they'll be interested for 80.

Japan. It's strange. I wouldn't be shocked if the beat SA. But I have to say, just going on hunches - I'd be less shocked if SA trounced them. I feel they might hit a wall and realise they have a way to go yet. But.......

Maybe this is how QFs should be as I can imagine wins for all sides. Visualising things in my head, I see no 'haven't got a hope' sides. On their day and all that jazz.....

Those rankings could look very different next Monday, at least with Wales meeting France we will have at least one NH semi finalist even if the NH teams don’t make the finals

by Guest Thu 17 Oct 2019, 9:30 pm

Taylorman wrote:
Ha ha really really true but I still take the OP at face value. Japan are twice proven underdogs. I'd say they have more grounds for underdog title. The middle four are true to form, and Ireland is the only of the 8 that's victim of an underdog, and play the faves.

Surely a reasonable basis for rating them.

Now if it were about the biggest upset Ireland would probably be first or second, based on this tournaments results, with France I guess.

As a rule for me though, France ate the WCup upset kings, so normally I would go with that.

Maybe, but Scotland are pretty gash, they beat the Irish reserves, and there's no way SA will be going anything but 100%. Fair play to Japan, love what they've brought to the tournament, but it would be a monumental upset - huge, bigger than 4 years ago - for this Japan team to beat the Boks in a QF. They and Ireland are huge underdogs for their games, with Ireland probably having more chance of beating NZ than Japan do v the Boks. If you really look at the context for Japan's 3 'big' wins in the last 4 years, they don't really compare to Irish wins v NZ. The latter is more impressive. So Japan are the most likely to win of the 4 less fancied sides? No way. They're the least likely. Some classic Kiwi bias at play here - taking ownership of Japanese success...

by Guest Thu 17 Oct 2019, 9:34 pm

Taylorman wrote:Yes, sounds about right though personally I would reverse Ireland and France simply due to their respective last 8 records, France waaaaaaaaay ahead of Ireland on that count.

Yet Japan, who've never made the knockouts before, are the bet bet of the bunch?

Poor trolling, T...

by majesticimperialman Thu 17 Oct 2019, 9:35 pm

One of two teams could cause an up set. France and Japan.

France because they have not really put in a true performance yet.

Japan have had a great tournament beating Ireland, and knocking Scotland out.

Will be interesting to see what happens.

by Taylorman Thu 17 Oct 2019, 9:58 pm

miaow wrote:
Taylorman wrote:Yes, sounds about right though personally I would reverse Ireland and France simply due to their respective last 8 records, France waaaaaaaaay ahead of Ireland on that count.

Yet Japan, who've never made the knockouts before, are the bet bet of the bunch?

Poor trolling, T...

Yes, as I said they were. I said I'd swap Ireland for France at the bottom...ie least likely to upset.

Glasses on? thumbsup

by Guest Thu 17 Oct 2019, 10:00 pm

Yeah I understand what you meant. It's just inconsistent and doesn't make sense. Have a think about it...Ireland less likely than France to cause an upset because they have a poorer RWC record...Japan the most likely eventhough they've never got out of the groups before.

WUMs are good when they're intelligent, based in truth, and make sense. When they're teasing. Not when they're just poor troll attempts.

by Taylorman Thu 17 Oct 2019, 10:25 pm

miaow wrote:Yeah I understand what you meant. It's just inconsistent and doesn't make sense. Have a think about it...Ireland less likely than France to cause an upset because they have a poorer RWC record...Japan the most likely eventhough they've never got out of the groups before.

WUMs are good when they're intelligent, based in truth, and make sense. When they're teasing. Not when they're just poor troll attempts.

Excuse me? You're saying theres a formula to describe what an upset is?

There is no one reason. Its all based on opinion but heres the difference. You are telling me what I get to call an upset or not.

I'm not telling you what to think. Just because you dont agree, doesnt make you right pal.

You say what you think the order is, and I'll do the same. Because your reasoning is certainly no better than mine.

Capische?

by Guest Thu 17 Oct 2019, 10:27 pm

I mean it defintely is a lot better haha. It's admittedly a decent effort at winding up the Irish on these boards before you play them, but the sign of a good, fair, enjoyable WUM is thinking it through beforehand and not missing the blind spots.

by Taylorman Thu 17 Oct 2019, 10:40 pm

"Ireland less likely than France to cause an upset because they have a poorer RWC record...Japan the most likely eventhough they've never got out of the groups before."

Those are both perfectly valid arguments for an upset. Add in that France are the masters of it. Ireland are doubly less because of the non quarters win by losing to Japan.

First theyve never won one of these matches. Second they were upset themselves AT THIS tournament. Third they play the favourites, the current and dual champs, a side that hasnt lost a Wcup match since 2007.

That makes them more likely to upset than a side who have done it on several occasions and are playing Wales?

Not sure you're argument is very compelling at all.

by **Pal Joey** Thu 17 Oct 2019, 11:14 pm

France for me.

Wales have come so far and be will desperate to make amends from previous campaigns and go all the way this time.
The will of the nation to win this World Cup is probably at its greatest ever. Reaching fever pitch. Wales +13

An Ireland win would be even a greater upset considering this particular All Black side but now the monkey is off their back they at least know what it might take to cause an upset. But I think the ABs should prove too strong though and Ireland will struggle to keep up. New Zealand +21

I also consider Japan beating SA would be another upset given the overall history of the rugby powerhouse nation and their own expectations.
However, one can't deny that Japan have proven they're no mugs and are taking organisation, skill and performance to very high levels indeed.
So in that sense it wouldn't be a surprise upset if they won. It would be another successful continuation of their method/style of play. SA +8

Australia beating England would be perhaps the least surprising for me. Even though recent history clearly suggests England have better form currently, seem to have the wood on Oz, Shocked

, are building nicely and should comfortably win this. However, you never quite know if the Wallabies will have one of those glorious days... where passes stick, defence holds and a solid team effort contributes to another page in history. notworthy

I don't think that will happen though. This RWC is about a year to 18 months too early for Australia.
Far too unsettled and still experimenting with players/positions in my opinion. England by about 17-20 points.

So maybe even that would be the biggest upset? Very Happy

by CaptainHaddock Fri 18 Oct 2019, 2:03 am

Australia and France are the most likely to cause an upset.

Ireland will have their work cut out for them but I think Schmidt has been focused on creating a team that can (and recently has) beaten the ABs so it could be a corker of a game or the ABs will smash them.

I think that SA will have to much power for Japan but they have been brilliant in this WC and if they pull it off it will be the greatest WC runs in the history of the comp irrespective what the achieve in the later rounds.

by Taylorman Fri 18 Oct 2019, 2:08 am

Yes gotta agree with that thumbsup

. If Japan beat SA that would rewrite much of that we know about this tournament to be true.

Japan in a semi...unheard of.

by Pie Fri 18 Oct 2019, 3:40 am

Ireland will get the shock win, though not really a shock IMO. Possibly Aussie too.

by BigTrevsbigmac Fri 18 Oct 2019, 8:14 am

Most popular bets for an ‘upset’ are for

Japan & Ireland about equal then France then Australia.

England 4/11
NZ 2/9
Wales 2/5
SA 2/11

by maestegmafia Fri 18 Oct 2019, 8:31 am

Taylorman wrote:Yes gotta agree with that . If Japan beat SA that would rewrite much of that we know about this tournament to be true.

Japan in a semi...unheard of.

Ireland have never made it to the semi finals either.

by Taylorman Fri 18 Oct 2019, 9:08 am

Yes but they’ve been tier one forever. Japan and Ireland..over and under performers thumbsup

by tigertattie Fri 18 Oct 2019, 9:25 am

maestegmafia wrote:
Taylorman wrote:Yes gotta agree with that . If Japan beat SA that would rewrite much of that we know about this tournament to be true.

Japan in a semi...unheard of.

Ireland have never made it to the semi finals either.

Japan in a QF was also unheard of so anything is possible.

SA were on some roll of form coming into the WC but rewind 2 years ago and they were a bit poo. Do japan have it in them again? I dont think they do to be brutally honest. SA hd them on toast in their last meeting and I can't see it being much different this time. Japan have the momentum and the home crowd which should bring them closer but I still see SA managing to win this.

France. Oh dear lord France!!!! No one knows what France is going to do. Not even France!!! Argentina who have really dropped away in recent years almost had them. Tonga who to be honest are struggling really had France against the ropes. Wales being Wales should jsut completely outstructure them for the win, but then again, France could go all French against them!

NZ no longer have their invincible status, especially against Ireland, but ireland have not managed to get any consistant performances together. They get humped by England one week then they hump Wales the next. They Destory Scotland one week then fall to Japan the next. I predict Ireland vs NZ to be a low scoring affair with NZ winning it by a try scored via a cross field kick.

England are bulding up steam but the Ozzies love a game against the "Whinging poms". The collisions in midfield for this game will be brutal but the game will be won by whoever gets forward dominance and right now I cant see passed England for this.

by SecretFly Fri 18 Oct 2019, 10:05 am

tigertattie wrote: I predict Ireland vs NZ to be a low scoring affair with NZ winning it by a try scored via a cross field kick.

Thanks for the heads up. Now which minute?

by SecretFly Fri 18 Oct 2019, 10:07 am

Taylorman wrote:Yes but they’ve been tier one forever. Japan and Ireland..over and under performers

We're chokers.

And we've stolen that title from some other team that I can't remember the name of.

by **LondonTiger** Fri 18 Oct 2019, 10:11 am

Most likely chance of a surprise?

England to beat Australia.

by tigertattie Fri 18 Oct 2019, 10:14 am

SecretFly wrote:
tigertattie wrote: I predict Ireland vs NZ to be a low scoring affair with NZ winning it by a try scored via a cross field kick.

Thanks for the heads up. Now which minute?

According to mystic meg, it will be in the 94th minute

by **LondonTiger** Fri 18 Oct 2019, 10:21 am

tigertattie wrote:
SecretFly wrote:
tigertattie wrote: I predict Ireland vs NZ to be a low scoring affair with NZ winning it by a try scored via a cross field kick.

Thanks for the heads up. Now which minute?

According to mystic meg, it will be in the 94th minute

I thought Barnes was reffing one of the other games?

by SecretFly Fri 18 Oct 2019, 10:38 am

by Big Fri 18 Oct 2019, 10:54 am

Pains me to say it as an England fan, but I think Australia are most likely to cause an upset (in so far as it can be called an upset when teams are relatively evenly matched), shortly followed by Ireland in my opinion.

France are all over the place and I'm confident Wales can beat them, and for Japan I think South Africa will be a test too far. There is no way South Africa will take them lightly after 2015.

by lostinwales Fri 18 Oct 2019, 10:57 am

What does impress me with Japan is the way they make the ball do the work when they are on the attack. They will lack a lot of bulk compared to SA, but if they can get the SA giants running from side to side all game they may have a chance.

by Scottrf Fri 18 Oct 2019, 11:06 am

Australia (25%), France (20%), Japan (15%), Ireland (10%) in my opinion.

I do think the favourites are fairly large ones in these matches.

by Guest Fri 18 Oct 2019, 11:07 am

SA ‘should’ win this game but Japan are on a mission. SA will kick to the corners and rolling maul try themselves to a win. Never under estimate a siege mentalitied wallaby so that’s the upset.

by tigertattie Fri 18 Oct 2019, 11:15 am

Scottrf wrote:Australia (25%), France (20%), Japan (15%), Ireland (10%) in my opinion.

I do think the favourites are fairly large ones in these matches.

Are you only giving Ireland a 10% chance at winning?

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