2019 General Election

Now it's confirmed for December 12th (pretty much), I thought we should have a shiny new thread for the fourth and final UK GE of this tumultuous decade; a decade which has also included three referendums and four (maybe five) different Prime Ministers.

News this morning that Amber Rudd won't be defending her seat. Oh well.

Opinion polls currently have the Tories in a double digit lead, but it's anticipated to be a lot tighter than that by the time we reach the actual polling day.

Always skeptical of these polls. I do agree it will be closer. I'd bet on another hung parliament.

Good odds on another hung parliament - about 11/10 is the best price. A Tory majority is narrowly favoured at 10/11. A Labour majority is available at 20/1.

I think that after Johnson's failure to deliver in accordance with the 31st October deadline, the Tories will start to lose support to the Brexit Party and that will cost them the chance of a majority. So, I too think it will be a hung parliament, with the Tories almost certain to win the most seats, but campaigns can be funny things and there's still a lot of time to go.

Most concerning thing I see is I'm not sure what this election resolves. I think we'll get a hung parliament with the Tories getting the most seats, but they will struggle to form a coalition with anyone. They appear to have burnt their bridges with the DUP, and the Brexit Party are unlikely to win enough seats to get them over the line. So we could well end up with a minority Tory government and another GE within a year! Or a very shaky and unreliable Lab/SNP/LD/Grn/Plaid coalition.

If we do get another hung parliament, it should be the end of FPTP. The major argument advanced in favour of it is that it delivers majorities for the winning party - this could be the 3rd out of the last 4 elections to not deliver a majority, a trend that sees little sign of ending going forward.

Duty281 wrote:Good odds on another hung parliament - about 11/10 is the best price. A Tory majority is narrowly favoured at 10/11. A Labour majority is available at 20/1.

I think that after Johnson's failure to deliver in accordance with the 31st October deadline, the Tories will start to lose support to the Brexit Party and that will cost them the chance of a majority. So, I too think it will be a hung parliament, with the Tories almost certain to win the most seats, but campaigns can be funny things and there's still a lot of time to go.

Most concerning thing I see is I'm not sure what this election resolves. I think we'll get a hung parliament with the Tories getting the most seats, but they will struggle to form a coalition with anyone. They appear to have burnt their bridges with the DUP, and the Brexit Party are unlikely to win enough seats to get them over the line. So we could well end up with a minority Tory government and another GE within a year! Or a very shaky and unreliable Lab/SNP/LD/Grn/Plaid coalition.

If we do get another hung parliament, it should be the end of FPTP. The major argument advanced in favour of it is that it delivers majorities for the winning party - this could be the 3rd out of the last 4 elections to not deliver a majority, a trend that sees little sign of ending going forward.

That's the very reason why the Brexit party will not have candidates standing in areas where the Tories might win, they'll be targeting labour in the north.

Think the Tories will win a majority.......December suits a cynical..negative campaign and I expect turnout to be low..

Corbyn's approvals are horrendous and I have a feeling the Lib Dems using the Euro results to fool the public into thinking they are second place in marginals they have no chance of winning will pay off for the Tories..

BUT.....Six weeks is a long time.......and the big variable is the weather..

Let me guess who the one guy voting for the Brexit Party is ??? I wonder !!

Out of interest. Are the Brexit Party advocating a No Deal Brexit?

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Think the Tories will win a majority.......December suits a cynical..negative campaign and I expect turnout to be low..

Corbyn's approvals are horrendous and I have a feeling the Lib Dems using the Euro results to fool the public into thinking they are second place in marginals they have no chance of winning will pay off for the Tories..

BUT.....Six weeks is a long time.......and the big variable is the weather..

Let me guess who the one guy voting for the Brexit Party is ??? I wonder !!

I'm not enamoured by any one of the parties, but will be voting for the Brexit Party as a protest vote.

I'm also expecting a high turnout, in spite of the December date, as the result is far from a foregone conclusion and passions are high on all sides.

Duty281 wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Think the Tories will win a majority.......December suits a cynical..negative campaign and I expect turnout to be low..

Corbyn's approvals are horrendous and I have a feeling the Lib Dems using the Euro results to fool the public into thinking they are second place in marginals they have no chance of winning will pay off for the Tories..

BUT.....Six weeks is a long time.......and the big variable is the weather..

Let me guess who the one guy voting for the Brexit Party is ??? I wonder !!

I'm not enamoured by any one of the parties, but will be voting for the Brexit Party as a protest vote.

I'm also expecting a high turnout, in spite of the December date, as the result is far from a foregone conclusion and passions are high on all sides.

What are you protesting against? Sanity?

superflyweight wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Think the Tories will win a majority.......December suits a cynical..negative campaign and I expect turnout to be low..

Corbyn's approvals are horrendous and I have a feeling the Lib Dems using the Euro results to fool the public into thinking they are second place in marginals they have no chance of winning will pay off for the Tories..

BUT.....Six weeks is a long time.......and the big variable is the weather..

Let me guess who the one guy voting for the Brexit Party is ??? I wonder !!

I'm not enamoured by any one of the parties, but will be voting for the Brexit Party as a protest vote.

I'm also expecting a high turnout, in spite of the December date, as the result is far from a foregone conclusion and passions are high on all sides.

What are you protesting against?  Sanity?    

The right to vote?

I'll be voting for Plaid Cymru as always unless this possible electoral pact for Remain parties happens and I am instructed to do otherwise. I did actually vote Lib Dem once when I was much younger so wouldn't be the first time if they are the one in my constituency

Duty281 wrote:I'm not enamoured by any one of the parties, but will be voting for the Brexit Party as a protest vote

As a protest against parties that actually have an elected leader and a manifesto?

Not voting UKIP anymore then I take it

It's the first time I can remember that I really don't want to vote for any of the f*ckers. I'll have to work out who I least object to.

I can see a hung parliament and then a coalition, with the minority partner(s) stating that one condition is a change of either Labour or Tory leader.

The only result I want is the true banter result of a Tory majority but Johnson losing his seat.

Vote tactically, f*** the Tories

The poll's a bit harsh on the Greens who are omitted (yet DUP are on).

Regarding Jo Swinson got to admit I'm getting v irritated with her negativity and personal attacks on Corbyn. Compare and contrast with Vince Cable, who whilst v critical of Corbyn's Brexit stance and a few Labour policies, didn't resort to the personal character assassination Swinson has been doing.

The Lib Dems putting Sam Gyimah up in Kensington (where Labour won by 20 votes in 2017) is basically handing that seat to the Tories.

I applaud Swinsons confidence, but if she keeps making Frak decisions like that one she’s handing Johnson a majority on a plate. If Labour and the Lib Dems are serious about stopping a No Deal Brexit they need to grow up and work together.

MrInvisible wrote:The poll's a bit harsh on the Greens who are omitted (yet DUP are on).

Regarding Jo Swinson got to admit I'm getting v irritated with her negativity and personal attacks on Corbyn.  Compare and contrast with Vince Cable, who whilst v critical of Corbyn's Brexit stance and a few Labour policies, didn't resort to the personal character assassination Swinson has been doing.

Just goes to show that the polling outcomes are impacted by the prejudices of the pollster.

MrInvisible wrote:The poll's a bit harsh on the Greens who are omitted (yet DUP are on).

Regarding Jo Swinson got to admit I'm getting v irritated with her negativity and personal attacks on Corbyn.  Compare and contrast with Vince Cable, who whilst v critical of Corbyn's Brexit stance and a few Labour policies, didn't resort to the personal character assassination Swinson has been doing.

As a Lib Dem voter, she is the reason I won't be voting for them. In my Tory stronghold i'm going to throw my vote at Labour.

Revoking Article 50 is just a step too far and that is what Lib Dems are advocating.

Amazing how people can polarize opinions. As Labour member, I have always voted that way, but my constituency is currently Tory with a history of being Lib Dem

I always toy with a tactical Lib Dem vote, and it is Jo Swinson that will persuade me to do so. Both the big parties are stuck in a rut of picking holes in the other, rather than being progressive with their own policies. The whole system needs a modernisation.

Jo Swinson has come out and made it quite clear what they stand for (whether you agree or not), and she is quite right when she says that the two main party leaders divisive, both with the general public and within their own parties.

CaledonianCraig wrote:Revoking Article 50 is just a step too far and that is what Lib Dems are advocating.

Why, when the last 4 years have proved we cannot actually achieve what was voted for in the referendum?

To quote the radio the other day, if we voted to leave the solar system, and then discovered it wasn't possible, would we keep trying to achieve the impossible with people shouting "Just get on it with it".

Afro wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:Revoking Article 50 is just a step too far and that is what Lib Dems are advocating.

Why, when the last 4 years have proved we cannot actually achieve what was voted for in the referendum?

To quote the radio the other day, if we voted to leave the solar system, and then discovered it wasn't possible, would we keep trying to achieve the impossible with people shouting "Just get on it with it".

Probably.

Afro,

Completely agree with you on her stance. The 19 points she is polling is indicative of how well she has done. I also think Labour are missing a trick not putting a confirmatory ref in their manifesto as I think that would take votes away from Lib Dem.

My issue is the way she comes across. If she put differences aside, she could feasibly be the next PM under a Lib Dem/Labour coalition. But she is somewhat divisive in herself.

Afro wrote:Jo Swinson has come out and made it quite clear what they stand for (whether you agree or not), and she is quite right when she says that the two main party leaders divisive, both with the general public and within their own parties.

'Divisive' - such an overused word in politics. It means 'tending to cause disagreement' or 'causing people to be split into groups that disagree with each other'...which is the entirety of politics. Every politician is divisive!

Afro wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:Revoking Article 50 is just a step too far and that is what Lib Dems are advocating.

Why, when the last 4 years have proved we cannot actually achieve what was voted for in the referendum?

To quote the radio the other day, if we voted to leave the solar system, and then discovered it wasn't possible, would we keep trying to achieve the impossible with people shouting "Just get on it with it".

Except it isn't actually impossible to leave the EU. Though it might feel that way.

Duty281 wrote:

Afro wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:Revoking Article 50 is just a step too far and that is what Lib Dems are advocating.

Why, when the last 4 years have proved we cannot actually achieve what was voted for in the referendum?

To quote the radio the other day, if we voted to leave the solar system, and then discovered it wasn't possible, would we keep trying to achieve the impossible with people shouting "Just get on it with it".

Except it isn't actually impossible to leave the EU. Though it might feel that way.

Leaving isn't impossible, but the promises of what leave meant by the Leave campaign do feel impossible.

This is why the argument for a confirmatory referendum is growing. If there is an appetite to Leave without a deal, rather than Remain, then that becomes achievable.

Duty281 wrote:

Afro wrote:Jo Swinson has come out and made it quite clear what they stand for (whether you agree or not), and she is quite right when she says that the two main party leaders divisive, both with the general public and within their own parties.

'Divisive' - such an overused word in politics. It means 'tending to cause disagreement' or 'causing people to be split into groups that disagree with each other'...which is the entirety of politics. Every politician is divisive!

You regularly hear mention of whether Boris or Corbyn is the lesser of two evils though. It shouldn't be like that, having to vote which is the least bad.

Also divisive means to cause a split. Both Boris and Corbyn have caused a split within their own parties, when they need to be uniting them

Afro wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:Revoking Article 50 is just a step too far and that is what Lib Dems are advocating.

Why, when the last 4 years have proved we cannot actually achieve what was voted for in the referendum?

To quote the radio the other day, if we voted to leave the solar system, and then discovered it wasn't possible, would we keep trying to achieve the impossible with people shouting "Just get on it with it".

On the EU issue I have always been on the fence. I can see the merits of being in it and not.

Now in the referendum we voted to Leave and that cannot or should not be simply rescinded just like that.

A deal can or should be able to be done but the fact it hasn't is down to several reasons. Far too many splintered factions who want something different from Brexit so not enough MP's pulling towards one goal. Some want a No Deal Brexit, some want a soft Brexit, some want to remain in the customs union and some want to remain all together. May or Johnson have not delivered the kind of Brexit most MPs want hence it has not gone through yet but if this GE gives one party a majority then Brexit will be done far easier. I fear that if the Tory party are returned to power with a bigger majority they will re-pursue their dream of a No Deal Brexit since they seem to have given up on the other deal. If Labour get in with a coalition then Labour intend to negotiate a new deal and then put it to the public so Brexit would still happen. The Lib Dems would not honour the original vote though. Now it will be interesting to see how the Lib Dems fair on that remit.

It is an interesting strategy. If strong Remainers see it as the only possible way of not leaving the EU, it could attract a lot of votes.

The Lib Dems clearly need a way to stand out from the crowd, so this is it

JuliusHMarx wrote:It's the first time I can remember that I really don't want to vote for any of the f*ckers. I'll have to work out who I least object to.

I can see a hung parliament and then a coalition, with the minority partner(s) stating that one condition is a change of either Labour or Tory leader.

You are not the only one, hence my poll choice

superflyweight wrote:Out of interest.  Are the Brexit Party advocating a No Deal Brexit?

I would expect they are only going to be advocating giving more donations to the Brexit party.

This whole standing aside thing is probably just a way of saving a few deposits

Afro wrote:It is an interesting strategy. If strong Remainers see it as the only possible way of not leaving the EU, it could attract a lot of votes.

The Lib Dems clearly need a way to stand out from the crowd, so this is it

The Lib Dems always needed something to pick them up from the gutter after jumping into bed with the Tories

Stopping Brexit is now the card they have pulled from their sleeve. Some people say it is a gamble...but I do not really see what other choice they had

Voting in Wales should be interesting. We now have staunch Remainers (Lib Dems), Nationalists (Plaid), Right wing gammonheads (Brexit Party) plus the ones who would vote for the Tory or Labour candidate even if the local axe murderer was standing

I fully expect the SNP to clean up again in Scotland

Whilst it looks a foregone conclusion that SNP will pretty much sweep the board in Scotland, elsewhere its likely the key battlegrounds will be as follows:

Leave inclined marginals in the Midlands and smaller urban conurbations in Northern England - vast majority of these will be Labour v Tory 2 way battle, but the presence/absence of Brexit party candidates and strength of Lib Dem performance will have a big impact.

Remain inclined London marginals - with exception of south-west London (where Lib Dems have their strength) its normally a straightfoward Labour v Tory fight - however, Berger is a strong candidate for Lib Dems in Finchley and Golders Green, and Gyimah may attract a lot of ex Labour voters in Kensington. Whilst Labour could see a net loss in London they could pick up a couple of Tory scalps on the northern fringes - keep an eye on IDS's Chingford seat and also De Villiers' Chipping Barnet one.

The West Country - traditionally Lib Dem stronghold though Labour came strong 2nd in couple of Cornish seats last time round. Generally though its the West Country where Lib Dems will be expecting to make up lots of lost ground on Tories - if they don't pick up more than a couple of seats in this area its a good night for the Tories.

There may be a couple of Labour/Lib Dem urban marginals held by Labour which may go other way due to Brexit e.g. Cambridge. Don't really have a clue on Wales to be honest - if Labour are going to be losing seats there than they're going to be having a v bad night, going seriously backwards. In terms of gains they may have their eyes on marginal Aberconwy where popular independent (previously Tory) MP Bebb is standing down.

Worth keeping tabs on Northern Ireland - not normally the most interesting electoral contests, but surely DUP will lose support, and if Alliance or even SDLP (from Sinn Fein?) pick up a couple of seats that can make all the difference in parliament if the arithmetic is tight. Of course, if we end up with a healthy Tory majority this may all be academic.

Beer wrote:Afro,

Completely agree with you on her stance. The 19 points she is polling is indicative of how well she has done. I also think Labour are missing a trick not putting a confirmatory ref in their manifesto as I think that would take votes away from Lib Dem.

My issue is the way she comes across. If she put differences aside, she could feasibly be the next PM under a Lib Dem/Labour coalition. But she is somewhat divisive in herself.

They were on 22 points after the Euros with Cable...

She has just U-turned on the PV after dropping in the polls by saying she would just keep us in without one..

.She won't rule out a Coalition with Claudius but will with Labour...The Lib Dems only have one policy apart from calling Corbyn an antisemite.

Her approvals are in the minus 20s shocking for a new Leader.

But I guess People see what they want to see..

Fair play.

To be fair the Lib Dems have been fairly consistent with their Brexit plans. Campaign for a PV with the option to remain, unless the somehow win a majority in a GE which they will take as a mandate to revoke A50 outright.

Swinson talks a big game, but when push comes to shove I'd bet my bottom dollar she'd join forces with Labour to stop No Deal at the worst. Same with the SNP and Labour. If it was those three parties working together vs Johnson and his Poopie deal/no deal they'll pull something out the bad, lest they all be blamed for No Deal and we're scunnered with the Tories for all eternity.

Out of interest how many Lib Dem defectees have come from Labour and how many from the conservatives?

On the face of things they feel very Blairite at the moment.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

Beer wrote:Afro,

Completely agree with you on her stance. The 19 points she is polling is indicative of how well she has done. I also think Labour are missing a trick not putting a confirmatory ref in their manifesto as I think that would take votes away from Lib Dem.

My issue is the way she comes across. If she put differences aside, she could feasibly be the next PM under a Lib Dem/Labour coalition. But she is somewhat divisive in herself.

They were on 22 points after the Euros with Cable...

She has just U-turned on the PV after dropping in the polls by saying she would just keep us in without one..

.She won't rule out a Coalition with Claudius but will with Labour...The Lib Dems only have one policy apart from calling Corbyn an antisemite.

Her approvals are in the minus 20s shocking for a new Leader.

But I guess People see what they want to see..

Fair play.

I hadn't kept in touch that much, was more based on their performance in the 2017 GE. If that's correct then it's very telling indeed.

You are more than entitled to disagree with me...Good to see different opinions...

My worry with this GE is Labour/Lib cancelling eachother out..

Like to see her attacking the Conservatives a bit more....But what will be..will be..

I agree they will cancel each other at. I see McDonnell has put the boot into the Lib Dems this afternoon.

No one can declare in a campaign that they would form a coalition, apart from possibly the Nationalist parties who, even if they won every seat they stood for, would always need a partnership to be in government.

For the rest, it would just undermine their campaign to start talking government coalitions

139,000 new registered voters in the last 24 hours...

90,000.....18-34s
22,000......35-44s...

Should think a couple of million more will register by 12 December...

40 million voted last time..

A lot will depend where these new voters are located....

I see Farage has thrown in with Johnson...Surprise Surprise..

No difference in those Parties now....Ken Clarke...Phil Hammond must be wondering what has happened to their Party.

All good fun..

The same Ken Clarke who was a cabinet minister during the Thatcher years?

Soul Requiem wrote:The same Ken Clarke who was a cabinet minister during the Thatcher years?

49 years in parliament. Cons are not his party anymore anyway. They kicked him out

So based on one single opinion despite being a supporter of privatization and austerity he's ok though?

Can't always read into Council elections but one last night.

Con 40% (=)
Ind 22% (+22)
Lib 20% ( +16%)
Lab 18% (-32%)

Truly abysmal for Labour and would mean landslide.

Interesting little survey....

YG....Definitely going to vote for their Party..

Con....... 71%
Lab.... ...60%
BP..........55%
Lib Dem 29%

If true the Lib Dem voters are a good deal more open to persuasion than the rest..

There's a lot being said about tactical voting within LD circles. Would guess that is allied to it

Nigel Farage now not going to stand.
Hardly surprising, given that it's far easier to be behind the scenes rather than in front leading.

Luke wrote:Nigel Farage now not going to stand.
Hardly surprising, given that it's far easier to be behind the scenes rather than in front leading.

Well he will still be leading the Brexit Party's campaign, not hiding away. As he would have never won a seat anyway, it's a sensible decision.

Little sign of the Tories lead slipping away at this early stage - their lead is between 8 and 16% in every poll since the election was voted for. Labour haven't led in a poll for just over three months. Support for the Lib Dems has declined a tad.