Potential Lions Squad - Post ANC Discussion

First topic message reminder :

Well despite Fiji being out of the picture in terms of home nation opposition and Japan being unable to make it over it was still a very interesting tournament. England were deserved winners if you ask me and I think Ireland showed they are still a dangerous side who will be a big part of the next Lions tour. The Fact Nemani Nadolo who only played one match was joint top try scorer with Jamie George shows how little free flowing running rugby there was throughout.

In terms of all the player discussions we had over the summer, who do you feel has improved their case after the ANC? And who has perhaps dropped in form or not had the impact you'd have expected? And finally, which newly capped players might be in with a shot as a bolter?

Player Of The Match (Home nations)

Rd 1 - Jamie George (ENG), Caelan Doris (IRE), Duhan van der Merwe (SCO)
Rd 2 - Maro Itoje (ENG), Aaron Wainwright (WAL)
Rd 3 - Sam Underhill (ENG), Iain Henderson (IRE)

Play Off Finals - Taulupe Faletau (WAL), Caelan Doris (IRE), Billy Vunipola (ENG)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autumn_Nations_Cup#Player_statistics
https://www.autumnnationscup.com/fixtures-tv/

Just thinking abut the halfbacks, who are the good younger ones? I still think Murray and Sexton are the best pairing, but Murray is slowing down and Sexton is being held together, barely, and might not be healthy when Lions time comes around. I suppose Farrell would be the alternative to Sexton, Webb, maybe, the best alternative at 9.

On a slightly different point, which could help Saracens players be considered, is they can be rested much better when playing in the Championship than with the rigours of the Premiership. Since I doubt Eddie Jones will drop them from England, we will still be able to see them play at the top level. Not saying they are all my preference, but it would be nice to have rested top level players for once.

doctor_grey wrote:Just thinking abut the halfbacks, who are the good younger ones?  I still think Murray and Sexton are the best pairing, but Murray is slowing down and Sexton is being held together, barely, and might not be healthy when Lions time comes around.  I suppose Farrell would be the alternative to Sexton, Webb, maybe, the best alternative at 9.  

On a slightly different point, which could help Saracens players be considered, is they can be rested much better when playing in the Championship than with the rigours of the Premiership.  Since I doubt Eddie Jones will drop them from England, we will still be able to see them play at the top level.  Not saying they are all my preference, but it would be nice to have rested top level players for once.

Half backs is one of the really difficult areas to predict. Lots of big names, none of them standing out. The six nations , who starts and who plays well will have a big impact here IMO. Sexton seems pretty much a given to travel though unless his form tanks further. Looks like Ireland will be sticking by him and Murray as the starting pair for the 6 nations . Farrells one of those players that coaches like more than the fans, and covering the centres makes him a very handy squad player, and pretty likely to start through the 6 nations be that 10 or 12...another kicking meltdown though would surely do for him. He and Biggar made up the trio last time, but there's a chance for Russell, Ford or even Sheedy if he gets the starts for Wales to gatecrash that.

Scrum half probably our weakest position. Again Murray seems to be the one constant without being a "must have" in his own right. Who starts for Wales through the 6 nations where theres lots of depth but a lack of a clear first choice could again have an impact on the selections, and if Jones finally gives in on Youngs then it will make his Lions selection a lot harder. Dont think its impossible we will see two welsh scrum halves in the squad, Gareth Davies has a chance as a former Gatland favourite and winner but depending who you ask hes anything down to 5th choice for Wales when everyones fit.

On the Saracens players that could work two ways. If they arent getting starts for England it might make it hard in 50/50 calls for Gatland to select them with little recent to base assessments on. That said though he also indicated that he might leave out players who weren't available for the full training period because of elongated domestic seasons, somethingSaracens players certainly don't need to worry about.

Of the Welsh I think Gareth Davies has a good chance, despite his early dip in form. He is probably our best seeing as Webb has gone downhill on the international front. Davies can turn a game on its head in an instant. Might Cooney be a bolter?

Gareth Davies's support play is excellent, plus his speed off the mark makes him such a danger for opposition scrum halves who risk their passes being intercepted. For me though, I like a scrum half to have a good kicking game, like a Ruan Pienaar or many of the French scrum halves. It takes pressure off the outside half having a second kicker and decision-maker, something Finn Russell benefits from at Racing. I'm not sure any of the Welsh scrum halves is particularly strong in that area - the best Welsh kicking scrum half is probably Rhodri Williams, but we can rule him out of Lions selection if he's being overlooked for Wales. Conor Murray has a decent kicking game, and I thought Gibson-Park's box kicking was brilliant early on against England - perfect distance and hang time so that England's back three were getting man and ball. Eventually Itoje's harrying put him off his game, but that should only count against him if he doesn't learn from it.

I really like Dan Robson, I think he ticks all the boxes, but he may suffer from having Youngs selected ahead of him.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:Gareth Davies's support play is excellent, plus his speed off the mark makes him such a danger for opposition scrum halves who risk their passes being intercepted. For me though, I like a scrum half to have a good kicking game, like a Ruan Pienaar or many of the French scrum halves. It takes pressure off the outside half having a second kicker and decision-maker, something Finn Russell benefits from at Racing. I'm not sure any of the Welsh scrum halves is particularly strong in that area - the best Welsh kicking scrum half is probably Rhodri Williams, but we can rule him out of Lions selection if he's being overlooked for Wales. Conor Murray has a decent kicking game, and I thought Gibson-Park's box kicking was brilliant early on against England - perfect distance and hang time so that England's back three were getting man and ball. Eventually Itoje's harrying put him off his game, but that should only count against him if he doesn't learn from it.

Are you Eddie Jones?

What I mean is that I think it's important that a scrum half has a good kicking game. All teams are going to want their scrum half to kick.

Yeah Im joking but its a valid point. So much on selections will depend on how Gatland wants the Lions to take South Africa on. The half backs are pretty key to ball in hand play and dictating that style, which again really muddies the waters.

If you remember what a kick-fest the Wales v South Africa semi final was, and how tight the result was, that might be an indication of how Gatland will want the Lions to play. (I realise Gareth Davies played in that game, before anyone says anything!)

doctor_grey wrote:Just thinking abut the halfbacks, who are the good younger ones?  I still think Murray and Sexton are the best pairing, but Murray is slowing down and Sexton is being held together, barely, and might not be healthy when Lions time comes around.  I suppose Farrell would be the alternative to Sexton, Webb, maybe, the best alternative at 9.  

Good question. So far, I'd say the disrupted year has completely scuppered any hope of a changing of the guard, which in turn impacts the Lions. I think we'll see a fair few Tom Youngs-esque selections like in 2013, where 1-2 years later it seems mad to think how they toured with the Lions given how the respective national teams have changed. We may be looking at a squad that includes AWJ, Sexton etc for what could easily be their last games as test players, for instance.

In terms of half backs, I see this no differently. I think we're in line to go with experience: Youngs, Murray, Webb. Webb is under threat from Pivac as much as anyone else if he cannot nail down the Welsh shirt. If he doesn't, then Gareth Davies becomes a possibility.

SCRUM HALVES
Scotland: Ali Price (age when Lions tour 2021 occurs: 28), George Horne (26), Sam Hidalgo-Clyne (27).
No real youngster here apart from maybe Horne and I cannot see any youngster challenging the Scotland squad by next summer either. All 3 are probably outside the reckoning for different reasons. Price can be lethal but is loose and seems like the least suitable for Gatlandball. Horne is exciting but of what I've seen of him, isn't Lions quality. Hidalgo Clyne is perhaps the most appealing and has resurrected his career with Exeter, which bodes well given how similar they play to Gatlandball, but has poor pedigree over the last few years. None will tour in my opinion barring several injuries.
Ireland: Conor Murray (32), Jamison Gibson-Park (29), John Cooney (31), Kieran Marmion (29).
Once again, zero youngsters. 32 isn't over the hill so Murray will surely tour. Cooney would surely have toured had the tournament been summer 2020 but can't even start for Ulster now. Marmion isn't of the right quality but Gibson-Park has real potential given his Leinster connections and adds a different dynamic.
England: Ben Youngs (31), Willi Heinz (34), Ben Spencer (29), Dan Robson (29)
Once again, we have a few less experienced 9s who are all pushing their late 20s. Youngs tours, it seems unlikely England will get a look in elsewhere due to how little EJ trusts the alternatives. Some talent like Harry Randall (22) will surely be capped by England in the near future but that will likely come closer to the RWC than the 2021 tour. Given how EJ operates, Gatland would have to really find a bolter in order to select a young, English scrum half.
Wales: Rhys Webb (32), Gareth Davies (30), Lloyd Williams (32), Kieran Hardy (25), Tomos Williams (26), Rhodri Williams (28)
Perhaps the country with the best young 9s, and the best 9s overall as well. Certainly in terms of depth. They're the team with the biggest need of transition and as such are handing out opportunities to youngsters in this position where other teams are sticking with experience. Unfortunately it seems like the young, talented 9s here are second choice when it comes to the Wales pecking order. Tomos Williams is the most talented and probably the most exciting and toured as second choice scrum half with Gatland's Wales in the 2019 RWC. He's probably the only young 9 with a short at a Lions place.

I'll do the 10s when I have more time but in terms of the 9s, I think only Tomos Williams would be a 'younger' 9 in with a shout. I still make it Webb, Youngs, Murray, and then Gareth Davies as the 4 with the best chances as it stands.

rugby racing and beer, I assume you don't watch Ulster. Cooney has started 7 out of 8 games this season and has been selected for this weekend too.

Maine - apologies, I should have noted he's been recalled to the Ulster team but isn't guaranteed of his place after being dropped. We'll see how the rest of the season goes. However, he's not in the Irish squad; my point being that he was the best Irish 9 last season and now, even under a new coach, he cannot get in to the Irish team so the Lions would seem a stretch.

rugby racing and beer wrote:
I'll do the 10s when I have more time

No really, please don't

Guest wrote:Maine - apologies

Well said Guest.

Ooh, I’m excited to see what he comes back as next time! It’s like Christmas. Oh.....

They're still here on that other ID, which has been here a little while I suspect. It was obvious after all my comments on every single thread started getting 2 Dislikes. Poor guy really thinks he can get one over by doing that .

So ruck.co.uk (which to be fair is a clickbait site as much as Waile Online) has been producing a regular Lions XV based on bookies odds. Now this means very little as odds are influenced by how people are betting and unless Gats has signed up with the same people as Howley the punters are in teh dark.

However to spark conversation this is their team with odds and where relevant teh player who was in last time but fallen out of the team:

Hogg 1/3
May 1/10
Ringrose 4/7 (JD2)
Tuilagi 4/7
Adams 1/8
Farrell 1/20
Youngs 8/11 (Murray)
Mako 4/11
George 1/10
Sinckler 1/7 (Furlong)
Itoje 1/10
Ryan 1/10
Curry 1/5
Underhill 1/3
BillyV 1/5

Most of that seems to be based on the list he gave this time last year.

That balance between England and the rest seems a bit wrong.

Need to get Slade, Watson and Launchbury in there as well...

Tend to think Kruis will start regardless of playing in Japan.

Soul Requiem wrote:Tend to think Kruis will start regardless of playing in Japan.

I think he'll tour, then if his fitness and form holds up he will have a very good shot.

I rate Kruis highly but tend to think that Ryan at his best offers more in attack and the same excellence at set-piece. Hopefully Ryan and Itoje both stay fit as it would be a great partnership to at least see trialed in a warm up game. Sometimes partnerships on paper don't work out, for instance I was one of many desperate to see Tuilagi and BOD together but it never quite worked out.

Good point about Kruis. In addition, he will be another good player who won't have a long difficult season behind him. From an overall health standpoint would likely give him an advantage over other players.

Kruis' last game of rugby was the Wales test wasn't it? Its hard to imagine that hes managed to maintain the levels of fitness and skills sharpness required for elite level test rugby without a club to train with for this long. Japanese season, assuming it goes ahead, will start January which gives him 3 months of playing B level club games to get up to speed before the squads announced.

I would hope Gatland at least asks him to undertake some fitness assessments prior to being called up. He was one of the player name checked last year, and a former Lion so would be in Gatlands mind, but knowing he wont have played a high level of game for 16 months prior to the tour starting is a hell of a gamble on reputation. If he does manage to get himself fit enough then its a real testament to the guys professionalism, but heading to Japan in the first place kinda suggests he was looking at the money over glory and need to keep pushing himself. You simply cant judge someone's form for the highest level of test rugby based on play in second tier club competition, had he stayed at Saracens he would at least have had the possibility of 6 nations games and time in the England camps to train at the required intensity and pressure to push himself. Instead he will have been playing with himself at home for 10 months before his holiday.

Similar with Tuillagi, another player Gatland stated he wanted and the stand out star centre in the Lions nations. But again he's barely seen a rugby pitch in the past year, and his current injury will keep him out till around the time the squads announced. The last time he played a test he got carded, and hes played just 4 full games of club rugby back in September. At least he will have a club to train and rehab with, and I guess he does have a good history of coming back to form quickly after long lay offs but its still quite a gamble.

Probably give him a better chance than Kruis simply because centre is a position of weakness for the Lions whereas lock is a position of depth.

Players standing up in the 6 nations or not could be the deciding factor for both.

The difference between Tuilagi and Kruis is competition.

Centres is a big problem area in the home nations with no one, except maybe England, settled (injuries deny Ireland on that front). The choices are quite uninspiring to replace him with no standouts (S Johnson? H Jones? JD2? Tompkins? J Williams? Ringrose? Farrell?, Aki?, Marchant?). It is all up for grabs in the Six Nations at centre

Locks there is Itoje and Ryan definitely going with Launchbury, Lawes, Henderson, maybe Beirne, Cummings, J Gray and maybe AWJ (I would not pick him but Gatland might) competing for three spots. Kruis will have to not just maintain fitness, he will need to prove he deserves to be ahead of starters who have played in the ANC and the Six Nations as well as in most cases league and euro playoffs. There are too many alternative options for three not to be in health and form.

i'll be interested to see how Ollie Lawrence goes in the 6n.

king_carlos wrote:

Soul Requiem wrote:Tend to think Kruis will start regardless of playing in Japan.

I think he'll tour, then if his fitness and form holds up he will have a very good shot.

I rate Kruis highly but tend to think that Ryan at his best offers more in attack and the same excellence at set-piece. Hopefully Ryan and Itoje both stay fit as it would be a great partnership to at least see trialed in a warm up game. Sometimes partnerships on paper don't work out, for instance I was one of many desperate to see Tuilagi and BOD together but it never quite worked out.

Agree re Kruis. I think he'll tour because he's such a good set piece lock. Might be a bench spot though as the Ryan/Itoje partnership looks excellent. Despite being largely past it an probably unable to get in any other home nations starting lineup AWJ will probably end on tour as well.

The Sexton/Manu/BOD combo I think got one outing and looked brilliant for the Lions. Unfortunately Manu then got injured and didn't play again until a sub appearance in the final test which irritated his injury and meant he then missed several games for Tigers on his return.

Not entirely sure about AWJ touring as a player - he's got a nasty knee injury and has been given 10 weeks of recovery, which may mean he misses the entire 6 Nations. I think he could be out of time and luck for this tour. He won't have much time to get properly rehabbed and fit, let alone on form. Father Time may have his say. I hope if he recovers for the last couple of games that Pivac leaves him out so he can at least have a fighting chance.

I just don't see him being fit enough.

Who was the last England 10 to win in SA?
Give him a run!!!!!

doctor_grey wrote:Who was the last England 10 to win in SA?
Give him a run!!!!!

Jofra Archer

Mr Bounce wrote:Not entirely sure about AWJ touring as a player - he's got a nasty knee injury and has been given 10 weeks of recovery, which may mean he misses the entire 6 Nations. I think he could be out of time and luck for this tour. He won't have much time to get properly rehabbed and fit, let alone on form. Father Time may have his say. I hope if he recovers for the last couple of games that Pivac leaves him out so he can at least have a fighting chance.

I just don't see him being fit enough.

Yeah AWJs injury is going to make his selection even harder, and it really would be seen as a mates pick if he did get a spot now. It was always on dodgy ground given his game and continuing to look off the pace. Leaderships on thing, but not much use if you can justify a place in the 23. I would argue the other way though that his only chance of selection should be if he gets a game for Wales and actually proves he can still perform at the required level. Theres nothing really in his recent performances at test level to justify picking him and playing club level wont change that.

That could open the door a little more for Kruis to fill the similar statesman/reliable lock slot, but still surely requires him to demonstrate he's maintained an elite fitness ;level which will be tough to do.

Gooseberry wrote:

doctor_grey wrote:Who was the last England 10 to win in SA?
Give him a run!!!!!

Jofra Archer

Funny, but let's try Rugby, eh? You already know the answer.........

Gatland has plenty of form for selecting Welsh forwards who are recovering from knee injuries and allowing them tour time and even tests to play themselves back into form, so AWJ may not be completely out of luck.

The Sunday times reporting that rugby Australia have offered to host the Lions series. As someone living in Australia I'd be absolutely delighted with that!

It does actually make a lot of sense - there would unlikely be traveling fans but there's a huge number of British and Irish expats here. Not so many Saffers but I'm sure they'd all come I numbers for the games.

Given the two week quarantine period for the players the teams would likely also want a few weeks to train and play some warmups. The Lions especially would need that. It might just about work in the current timeframe (with a reduced number of games) but it would probably need extended a few weeks all in.

Would likely mean a smaller squad too as the tour would essentially become a straight test series shoot out.

Interesting development!

This would be a much better approach than playing in front of no fans in UK/Ireland! They might even be able to get a few tour matches against the Aussie Super Rugby teams. Super idea.

Biggest stumbling block with this is the Aussie public. It's not particularly good timing to announce this as Aussie patience and understanding is pretty low right now with the Melbourne open saga. It's not a good look to have brought thousands of tennis players and officials over when 40,000 Aussies have been stuck in the UK for 6 months or more trying to get home but held up by the daily arrival caps.

I suspect the average Aussie won't see any benefit for the country in this and it will come with an increased risk of Covid getting in (the whole of Australia has now gone 2 weeks with 0 cases outside of hotel quarantine). They won't give a crap that rugby Australia will make some money out of it. To many that would add to the negatives list!

RDW wrote:Biggest stumbling block with this is the Aussie public. It's not particularly good timing to announce this as Aussie patience and understanding is pretty low right now with the Melbourne open saga. It's not a good look to have brought thousands of tennis players and officials over when 40,000 Aussies have been stuck in the UK for 6 months or more trying to get home but held up by the daily arrival caps.

I suspect the average Aussie won't see any benefit for the country in this and it will come with an increased risk of Covid getting in (the whole of Australia has now gone 2 weeks with 0 cases outside of hotel quarantine). They won't give a crap that rugby Australia will make some money out of it. To many that would add to the negatives list!

One of my friends has been stuck in the UK for some time now and she's had 7 flights cancelled. She's been asking for help on facebook and getting friends to contact their local MP back in Australia to do something about it. Totally ridiculous really..

Australia's cricket tour of South Africa in March has been postponed. I know the Lions series is 4 months away but that's probably signaled the end of any chance that SA will be hosting the tour in June.

UK, Australia, move the date or cancel??

Potential to try something different and Japan could still make it down to play the Lions which would be a great warm up game. They might as well play some Australian clubs and a Barbarians side if they hold it in Aus. There would be crowds, expat fans on both sides and it could be a huge success in turbulent times. I'd be a fan for sure. Seems a much better option than holding it in the UK with no fans to attend games.

Would say the Lions Tour should be shifted a year to 2022.

The football World Cup in Qatar will be held in November - December and there is no Olympics. The competition for TV and commercial attention will be easier than in 2021 with the Euros on. Financially, it will be a clean run to drive revenue which rugby is desperate for

Part of the Lions Tour to SA is also to give exposure to rugby domestically, a boost every 12 years that SA will miss. The next opportunity for SA to host may be in 2033 if the current format continues. Easier to push back a year as much as AWJ and Sexton will be gutted to miss out

Hazel Sapling wrote:Would say the Lions Tour should be shifted a year to 2022.

The football World Cup in Qatar will be held in November - December and there is no Olympics. The competition for TV and commercial attention will be easier than in 2021 with the Euros on. Financially, it will be a clean run to drive revenue which rugby is desperate for

Part of the Lions Tour to SA is also to give exposure to rugby domestically, a boost every 12 years that SA will miss. The next opportunity for SA to host may be in 2033 if the current format continues. Easier to push back a year as much as AWJ and Sexton will be gutted to miss out

Doesn't that raise player welfare issues? The Lions squad will go straight from club games into the Lions then back to club, 6N and then RWC. That's effectively two years straight playing, with the two toughest "tours" in successive seasons. I can't see that being acceptable to the players, however much prestige is at stake.

Unfortunately I think there is no good solution for the Lions. To move the tour would require agreement from too many stakeholders which renders that a long shot (it would be my preference though).

As I understand it, the issue with moving to 2022 is it messes up the international tours scheduled for that summer. From memory Wales are due to tour SA in 2022.

Crasy to think that SA haven't played a game since the WC final!

Well Gatland is in england now preparing his scouting mission. Presumably same rules apply and he'll be focusing only on what the away side does in the final match and ignore the previous 6 months. To me it at least indicates the team think the tour is going ahead one way or another.

Until a final decision is made regarding the tour, I suppose the only thing to do is to prepare as if it is going ahead. It is incredibly difficult to plan anything, business, sport, anything really in Covid world. We all want to return to normal as quickly and safe as possible. But to make any firm plans for the next 6 months...

Scotland players needed to put in the performances to force their way to selection and a good few did on Saturday. Hogg. Watson. Cummings, Gray, Fagerson. Sutherland VDM

Itoje the only one in the England side to look like a lion. To me he is the only player from any country on the team sheet at the moment. I would have him as lions captain.

Didnt think he was that good v Scotland but in general he is probably the best player in the NH right now. Or maybe Dupont. VDM looks a quality player and Watson could be a mid week hero.

Dont really see the Lions tour going ahead anyway

While I think he's the best 10 in B&I I don't think Russell did himself many favours on Saturday despite Scotland's win. Neither did Farrell mind.

Bring back Andy Goode!

As a bolter then it has to be Ioan Lloyd. Fly-half that can also play in the back 3.

If George Turner can maintain his form against England across the Six Nations then he's a potential bolter. Especially with McInally and Brown crocked.

Hooker isn't that blessed with options. George was well below his best at the weekend but will presumably be involved. Cowan-Dickie has been very good for England and Exeter for a while, should be starting for England in my opinion. Ken Owens is a fantastic player but needs to stay fit.

It could well be Turner. Would love to see Lloyd more involved in the Wales team, he’s probably better than Sheedy.