Scotland vs Wales (13th Feb, 4.45pm KO)

First topic message reminder :

Scotland vs Wales

Referee: Matthew Carley (England)
Assistant Referee 1: Pascal Gauzere (France)
Assistant Referee 2: Andrea Piardi (Italy)
TMO: Karl Dickson (England)

Teams

Scotland

1 Rory Sutherland
2 George Turner
3 Zander Fagerson
4 Scott Cummings
5 Jonny Gray (Vice Captain)
6 Blade Thomson
7 Hamish Watson
8 Matt Fagerson
9 Ali Price
10 Finn Russell (Vice Captain)
11 Duhan van der Merwe
12 James Lang
13 Chris Harris
14 Darcy Graham
15 Stuart Hogg (Captain)

16 David Cherry
17 Oli Kebble
18 WP Nel
19 Richie Gray
20 Gary Graham
21 Scott Steele
22 Jaco van der Walt
23 Huw Jones

Wales

1 Wyn Jones
2 Ken Owens
3 Tomas Francis
4 Adam Beard
5 Alun Wyn Jones (Captain)
6 Aaron Wainwright
7 Justin Tipuric
8 Taulupe Faletau
9 Gareth Davies
10 Dan Biggar
11 Liam Williams
12 Nick Tompkins
13 Owen Watkin
14 Louis Rees-Zammit
15 Leigh Halfpenny

16 Elliot Dee
17 Rhodri Jones
18 Leon Brown
19 Will Rowlands
20 James Botham
21 Kieran Hardy
22 Callum Sheedy
23 Uilisi Halaholo

Recent Results

2017: SCO 29 - WAL 13
2018: WAL 34 - SCO 7 & WAL 21 - SCO 10
2019: SCO 11 - WAL 18
2020: WAL 10 - SCO 14

Overall

Am I the only one who thinks Lloyd Williams isn’t a great passer and a poor game-manager then? Halaholo is a great call btw. SLH would probably be a better call as he isn’t a 7, we got too many of those.

Webb has made it clear he wouldn’t have accepted being the 3rd choice scrum half in the squad. Perhaps he was asked and said no? Lloyd Williams looked good off the bench in the Autumn, but Tomos Williams is a big miss. Barring Rhodri Williams, who else is there?

mikey_dragon wrote:Am I the only one who thinks Lloyd Williams isn’t a great passer and a poor game-manager then? Halaholo is a great call btw. SLH would probably be a better call as he isn’t a 7, we got too many of those.

Yeah, wasn’t it in the game v England in the Autumn nations cup where we were struggling with Lloyd Williams starting and then looked a million miles better when Webb came on. Or am I getting the games confused? Or was it the other way around and he went better than expected in the Autumn. Can’t recall now.

chris_501 wrote:Webb has made it clear he wouldn’t have accepted being the 3rd choice scrum half in the squad. Perhaps he was asked and said no? Lloyd Williams looked good off the bench in the Autumn, but Tomos Williams is a big miss. Barring Rhodri Williams, who else is there?

When did Webb make that clear? I can’t imagine him saying no. There isn’t anyone else but the top 3 are clearly Davies, Webb and Tomos Williams.

He said on the ScrumV podcast that he would rather be at home helping his partner out with homeschooling, which I can understand. However when asked about what Pivac wanted him to improve on, he effectively said that he thinks how he plays is good enough that he won’t change anything, which is a disappointing attitude.

Like all the scrum halves in the Autumn, he had his opportunities, but didn’t particularly impress. Lloyd Williams looked great off the bench, then poor when he started. I actually think Hardy looked decent all round, so would be comfortable seeing him on the bench on Saturday.

Oh well that’s not exactly Webb refusing like you said. Also I agree with Webb, he doesn’t have much to improve on and is better than at least two other 9’s in the squad. I understand where he’s coming from and I don’t understand where Pivac is coming from.

Webb is probably a bench player. Pivac keeps clinging onto Webb and Biggar because he doesn’t have a clue with selection. Williams didn’t impress me at all in the autumn. Hardy was poor vs Georgia.

Willis Halaholo called up to squad

He's spent more time in Wales than Tompkins, Williams and Rowlands combined

mikey_dragon wrote:Oh well that’s not exactly Webb refusing like you said. Also I agree with Webb, he doesn’t have much to improve on and is better than at least two other 9’s in the squad. I understand where he’s coming from and I don’t understand where Pivac is coming from.

Webb is probably a bench player. Pivac keeps clinging onto Webb and Biggar because he doesn’t have a clue with selection. Williams didn’t impress me at all in the autumn. Hardy was poor vs Georgia.

I'm afraid I'll have to disagree, in whatever sphere of life you are in, the moment you think you don't have anything to improve on, you are letting yourself down, especially in sport. I think the squad is better off without him if that's his attitude, which I was a little surprised about, I was also underwhelmed by his performances in the Wales shirt over the autumn.

A question to the Scottish posters, how did you feel Russell played on Saturday? I see he made a lot of pundit's team of the week.

The Oracle wrote:After 10 minutes?!

He was on for more than 10 mins, and you could clearly see the shift in momentum and possession when he went off.

chris_501 wrote:

mikey_dragon wrote:Oh well that’s not exactly Webb refusing like you said. Also I agree with Webb, he doesn’t have much to improve on and is better than at least two other 9’s in the squad. I understand where he’s coming from and I don’t understand where Pivac is coming from.

Webb is probably a bench player. Pivac keeps clinging onto Webb and Biggar because he doesn’t have a clue with selection. Williams didn’t impress me at all in the autumn. Hardy was poor vs Georgia.

I'm afraid I'll have to disagree, in whatever sphere of life you are in, the moment you think you don't have anything to improve on, you are letting yourself down, especially in sport. I think the squad is better off without him if that's his attitude, which I was a little surprised about, I was also underwhelmed by his performances in the Wales shirt over the autumn.

You're right about that, and not just in sport but for any walk of life. I said he doesn't have much to improve on, which I feel is true. If the algorithm is High Quality passing from 9's in Wales, then Webb is already better than most. I guess that was his point and it also seems to be the POV of a lot of supporters since the squad was announced. We're all still scratching our heads at Parry's exclusion and Elias' inclusion too. Webb wasn't great against France but that's the only poor game I remember. Biggar wasn't good either, and neither was the entire team.

chris_501 wrote:

mikey_dragon wrote:Oh well that’s not exactly Webb refusing like you said. Also I agree with Webb, he doesn’t have much to improve on and is better than at least two other 9’s in the squad. I understand where he’s coming from and I don’t understand where Pivac is coming from.

Webb is probably a bench player. Pivac keeps clinging onto Webb and Biggar because he doesn’t have a clue with selection. Williams didn’t impress me at all in the autumn. Hardy was poor vs Georgia.

I'm afraid I'll have to disagree, in whatever sphere of life you are in, the moment you think you don't have anything to improve on, you are letting yourself down, especially in sport. I think the squad is better off without him if that's his attitude, which I was a little surprised about, I was also underwhelmed by his performances in the Wales shirt over the autumn.

A question to the Scottish posters, how did you feel Russell played on Saturday? I see he made a lot of pundit's team of the week.

It was an okay performance. He (mostly) was sensible, it was a performance suited to the game rather than anything like 2019 where he went full batsh*t. Don't think he would make my team of the week on that performance but was still decent.

Interesting comment about Biggar not being terribly good recently. I never thought him a great 10, but have had the opportunity to watch him regularly with Saints and I see him differently now. He brings a lot of energy and intensity which any team needs and can feed from. He does kick a lot, but generally well aimed. And does launch attacks through the backs efficiently. Not sure if he is either the best 10 in Wales or the right 10 for how Pivac wants to play. But I think he is a 10 with whom a team can win consistently.

NeilyBroon wrote:

chris_501 wrote:

mikey_dragon wrote:Oh well that’s not exactly Webb refusing like you said. Also I agree with Webb, he doesn’t have much to improve on and is better than at least two other 9’s in the squad. I understand where he’s coming from and I don’t understand where Pivac is coming from.

Webb is probably a bench player. Pivac keeps clinging onto Webb and Biggar because he doesn’t have a clue with selection. Williams didn’t impress me at all in the autumn. Hardy was poor vs Georgia.

I'm afraid I'll have to disagree, in whatever sphere of life you are in, the moment you think you don't have anything to improve on, you are letting yourself down, especially in sport. I think the squad is better off without him if that's his attitude, which I was a little surprised about, I was also underwhelmed by his performances in the Wales shirt over the autumn.

A question to the Scottish posters, how did you feel Russell played on Saturday? I see he made a lot of pundit's team of the week.

It was an okay performance. He (mostly) was sensible, it was a performance suited to the game rather than anything like 2019 where he went full batsh*t. Don't think he would make my team of the week on that performance but was still decent.

Probably a 7/10 for me - kicked well both positionally and through attacking kicks, had a few nice passes, got Redpath involved early and was key in our try. On the negative side he didn't have his best day off the tee, the YC, and not quite sure what was going on with the dropgoal at the end - although the pass from Steele was a shocker. I think he will play better as the tournament goes on, although it still seems like he will have to have a near perfect game for some of his critics in the media to be won over.

doctor_grey wrote:Interesting comment about Biggar not being terribly good recently.  I never thought him a great 10, but have had the opportunity to watch him regularly with Saints and I see him differently now.  He brings a lot of energy and intensity which any team needs and can feed from.  He does kick a lot, but generally well aimed.  And does launch attacks through the backs efficiently.  Not sure if he is either the best 10 in Wales or the right 10 for how Pivac wants to play.  But I think he is a 10 with whom a team can win consistently.  

I think Biggar is greatly helped at Saints by having Rory Hutchinson outside him as a second playmaker, in fact he has said so himself. I see him as quite similar to Farrell, both very competitive characters with big game temperaments, and as solid as they come in delivering on a game plan, but neither will have defences guessing. Both very different players to Finn Russell, who can range from infuriating to inspired in a single phase of play.

As for Rhys Webb not being involved, I dont understand that at all. That simply isn't a rugby decision, and there certainly aren't three better 9s in Wales.

I like Biggar more than Farrell. I have actually seen Biggar start a backline moving! Effectively, too. And at Saints I agree having not just Hutchinson, but also, when not injured, Piers Francis as well, really helps. Their skills seem complementary. Hutch and Francis, both borderline internationals, can both distribute and run, though Hutch is faster and shiftier with ball in hand. This is why its been frustrating watching Saints and with backline hasn't been firing until recently. Maybe its because we have a Welshman passing to an Englishman passing to a Scotsman. Cripe, add in an Irish fullback and we would be devastating or completely dysfunctional!!!!!

By the way, I agree about Webb. I think he is a terrific player and hope he is not selected to play England.

The development of Piers Francis always amuses me. When he was at Edinburgh we just couldn't get anything from him. Now it's perfectly clear that our useless coaches were fully to blame! He's also a 12 and not a 10 as we used him.

Listen, I don't believe for one second Farrell has become a bad player overnight. He was rusty and behind a pack that came off distinctly second best: not something he his used to. He was also up against a player in Russell who must be a nightmare to defend against, always changing things up and doing the unpredictable. Not what you need with so little recent top level rugby. He'll come good, but perhaps better to have him at 12 or off the bench to get up to speed. Ford is a better 10 in my opinion.

I don't think Farrell has become bad either. I think on his day he is still mostly robotic following the game plan with little deviation. He can do all the things a good 10 can do, but is not spontaneous and doesn't really attack what the other team is giving him. Russell is the polar opposite. Very spontaneous, so much so, I think, that sometime his own teammates don't know what he is going to do...

LordDowlais wrote:

The Oracle wrote:After 10 minutes?!

He was on for more than 10 mins, and you could clearly see the shift in momentum and possession when he went off.

According to the match reports he went off on 12 minutes.  Which means his injury was around 9 or 10 minutes because he tried in vain to run it off, and was then substituted.  He couldn't actually add anything in those minutes between being injured, being treated and being substituted as he was limping so badly.  So yeah, I'll go with 9-10 minutes of influence.  I don't think that was enough time into the game to say it was going one way in particular and his absence swinging things the other way.  That opening quarter was a bit of back and forth between the two sides from my memory.  Wales were up on the scoreboard though, if that's what you mean?  Funnily enough, it was the very next minute (13th minute) that O'Mahoney was red carded.  That's when it seemed to swing towards Ireland, in my opinion.  It seemed to galvanise them and then they started coming back into the match on the scoreboard.

Edit: Here's a timeline https://www.sixnationsrugby.com/live_matches/live-wales-v-ireland-2/#live

I always have the feeling that for all his positive play, Russell will give you a couple of chances a game. The Racing v Exeter game last season was a great example, he pulled off some fantastic moves, but also gifted a try from getting a little too excited.

For us to win on Saturday, we will have to marshall him well, and capitalise on those chances. I would start with Biggar and have Evans on the bench. Biggar is one of very few vocal leaders Wales have, something that in empty stadiums becomes even more important.

Russell reminds me of Carlos Spencer to a certain extent. To me, Spencer was the most creative 10 I have ever seen. I think his problem was he really did see things that the rest of his team didn't process yet, and in the moment tried to take what he saw. Russell seems somewhat similar but in his case is a little more off the rails. Spencer would never spontaneously try to trip an opponent (which I thought should have been a red, not yellow). If you can take that 5% extra energy or whatever off Russell, he could be really terrific. There are no other 10s like him in our nations, that's for sure.

I think having a player like Redpath (or Hutchinson) at 12, both heads-up players, will really help Russell. Regarding his teammates not knowing what he's going to do, again having a more settled side should help with that, particularly with other visionary players. Townsend was actually very similar in that regard, and it wasn't until 1999 that he had players like Leslie and Tait that were on his wavelength and could read him.

chris_501 wrote:I always have the feeling that for all his positive play, Russell will give you a couple of chances a game. The Racing v Exeter game last season was a great example, he pulled off some fantastic moves, but also gifted a try from getting a little too excited.

For us to win on Saturday, we will have to marshall him well, and capitalise on those chances. I would start with Biggar and have Evans on the bench. Biggar is one of very few vocal leaders Wales have, something that in empty stadiums becomes even more important.

The couple of chances is probably fair, but in that Racing/Exeter game you reference his net contribution was positive - it almost always is for any team he plays, but because he pushes the envelope his mistakes are prominent and that's what people remember.

I bang on about Russell here a bit, but that's because I think he shows that rugby doesn't have to be an unrelenting grind; a war of attrition where whoever has the biggest guns wins. He is the antithesis of Sexton, Farrell or Biggar and I'm glad there's a place in the modern game for him - it would be boring otherwise.

EST wrote:

chris_501 wrote:I always have the feeling that for all his positive play, Russell will give you a couple of chances a game. The Racing v Exeter game last season was a great example, he pulled off some fantastic moves, but also gifted a try from getting a little too excited.

For us to win on Saturday, we will have to marshall him well, and capitalise on those chances. I would start with Biggar and have Evans on the bench. Biggar is one of very few vocal leaders Wales have, something that in empty stadiums becomes even more important.

The couple of chances is probably fair, but in that Racing/Exeter game you reference his net contribution was positive - it almost always is for any team he plays, but because he pushes the envelope his mistakes are prominent and that's what people remember.

I bang on about Russell here a bit, but that's because I think he shows that rugby doesn't have to be an unrelenting grind; a war of attrition where whoever has the biggest guns wins.  He is the antithesis of Sexton, Farrell or Biggar and I'm glad there's a place in the modern game for him - it would be boring otherwise.  

Absolutely correct in the entertainment factor, I definitely make sure I watch when he plays, the same as Cipriani, Spencer and Quade Cooper. However, if you look at successful World Cup winners, not too many are littered with exciting playmakers at 10, I would argue more pragmatic players with the game changers outside them. That's why I feel Shane Williams is so treasured in Wales, when he was playing in the same team as Stephen Jones, Jones used to be rock solid, low error count, kicking his goals, Shane became the spark.

What is for sure, is the ratio of positive moments to errors in Russell's game definitely seems to be heading towards the former, so if he gets the balance correct, he'll be some player!

I think you can probably put Russell, Cipriani, Cooper and Spencer in a similar bubble.

The thing about these players is they need to be told that they are special and they are important, crucial for the team's success. In Scotland that quite literally is the case for Russell. Cipriani has never been head and shoulders above the rest of the England 10s. Certainly never enough to justify the risk. When he came through there was Wilkinson, Wilkinson retired in 2011 and Farrell came through in 2012.

Just saw on Twitter via a journo, that George North is out and the centres are Watkin and Tompkins. I guess Halaholo has to be on the bench now. Shame for North and big blow for Wales if true, as he’s in great form. He said the rest of the backs are as expected.

Tompkins? Jeez all Scotland have to do is run at him and they’ll score loads of tries. Glad Halaholo is on the bench, and should get his first cap. Is Josh Adams back in?

I’m assuming Halaholo is on the bench. Nothing has been said. Not sure who else could be really.

Adams still banned. It’s apparently

1/2P, LRZ, Tompkins, Watkin, Sanjay, Biggar, Grubber Davies

Not sure why I forgot about Sanjay. Haha Grubber Davies, bet he has a stormer .

RiscaGame wrote:Just saw on Twitter via a journo, that George North is out and the centres are Watkin and Tompkins. I guess Halaholo has to be on the bench now. Shame for North and big blow for Wales if true, as he’s in great form. He said the rest of the backs are as expected.

That definitely makes me less nervous! Compared to who we could have been facing certainly.

That's not a terrible set of backs. Mind, you're down to your third choice centre pairing.
Head To Head
Hogg v 1/2P adv Scotland
LRZ v VDM even
Watkin v Redpath adv Scotland
Tompkins v James McBrown adv the Stakhanovite
Sanjay v Nomaits adv the Saracen
Biggar v Dancer adv Scotland if the ref wears earplugs
Davies v Aldi Price evens but Price owes us a performance.

If Hamish and Mbawza can outplay Tips and the Naavii Scotland's backs should come out on top. But that's a very big if.

I would definitely have rather seen Lydiate at 6 than Navidi. Saying that, it would have been a poor selection from Pivac to have chosen him against a team like Scotland where we don't have big ball carriers needing chopped down but we do have plenty fetchers.

Big shame for Lydiate though - probably his last chance in a Wales jersey and he's out for the season.

RiscaGame wrote:Just saw on Twitter via a journo, that George North is out and the centres are Watkin and Tompkins. I guess Halaholo has to be on the bench now. Shame for North and big blow for Wales if true, as he’s in great form. He said the rest of the backs are as expected.

North seemed to be limping for a large part of the Ireland game. Not bad enough to come off but after each play he’d limp a bit when running back into position. I said (mainly to myself - damn you lockdown!) at the time that I thought he’d pulled something and feared he might go off but luckily he managed to see the game out.

Alternatively, it could be due to his gouged eyes (sorry LordDowlais! Couldn’t resist!).

jimbopip wrote:That's not a terrible set of backs. Mind, you're down to your third choice centre pairing.
 Head To Head
Hogg  v 1/2P adv Scotland
LRZ v VDM     even
Watkin v Redpath adv Scotland
Tompkins v James McBrown adv the Stakhanovite
Sanjay v  Nomaits adv the Saracen
Biggar v Dancer adv Scotland if the ref wears earplugs
Davies v Aldi Price evens but Price owes us a performance.

If Hamish and Mbawza can outplay Tips and the Naavii Scotland's backs should come out on top. But that's a very big if.

LRZ vs Duhan is advantage to whoever gets the ball in their hands. Both definitely stronger in attack than defence, despite being very different players. At least LRZ isn't facing off against Sean "running through treacle" Maitland, despite Sean having a fine game against England.

I'm pleased we don't have to deal with North. I know that Harris is very handy in defence, but I still think the conversion of North to OC (in the absence of JD2) is a smart move.

One of the (many) things England didn't do against Scotland was to run straight at Redpath to test him out on the highest stage. I'm not saying he has been poor defensively at club level, though his club is not exactly a defensive juggernaut. But he is young and in a critical position. I think it's imperative to see how he holds up and I think Wales should try him out. Against England he was credited with 5 tackles and one miss for whatever that is worth.

I dont think England gave the Scotland lineup much thought at all. I think Jones thought that if England performed it wouldn't matter. Perhaps the one exception was the targeting of Ali Price and his sluggish box kick, but I was surprised that we didn't see more of Fatty Vunipola and young Lawrence running at Redpath and Russell. I'm certain Wales will take a look at that.

doctor_grey wrote:One of the (many) things England didn't do against Scotland was to run straight at Redpath to test him out on the highest stage.  I'm not saying he has been poor defensively at club level, though his club is not exactly a defensive juggernaut.  But he is young and in a critical position.  I think it's imperative to see how he holds up and I think Wales should try him out.  Against England he was credited with 5 tackles and one miss for whatever that is worth.  

Rugby Pass did a really good article looking in detail at Redpath's performance - they highlighted in particular how good his defensive positioning and reading of the game was. Still very early days of course and I'm sure teams will still be testing him out.

I can't see Tompkins having many questions asked of his defence opposite Harris! I would like to see Duhan charging down that channel more often however. We really, really, really need to bring him into the game more - every time he got involved he did something against England. I don't think NH rugby has seen anything like it since George North broke through in terms of freak strength and pace.

Duhan is a machine! Reminds me a bit of Ben Cohen or Sean Lamont. I would use him all over the pitch. Could be a huge difference maker.

FES, if Vunipola ran straight at Redpath, he would have been exhausted by the time he got there.

For me Duhan is even more of a physical specimen than those two but isn't as good as a rugby player. He's a pure out and out strike weapon. Having watched him with Edinburgh over the years some of the things he has done are just outrageous. It's also terrifying seeing him in full flight up close live when in the standing section at Murrayfield for Edinburgh games - I have no idea how anyone could tackle that.

He's a bit of a thoroughbred - apparently at Edinburgh he doesn't do a full week of training like the rest of the squad and very much has his own weekly regime.

He actually failed his medical at Edinburgh and technically we should have cancelled the deal - Cockers took a punt on him though and we paid to get him fit.

I'd say that was a fairly decent shout by Cockers! He isn't a backs man, but Duhan is a special talent, no question.

George North was limping after his try, so fair play to him if it's from that. Hope he isn't out too long, as I have a bet on him being top Welsh try scorer this tournament too .

It's incredibly frustrating again to look ahead to a match where we have a large contingent not available. I make it 9 players who would make our 23 who are unavailable due to injury and while it's part and parcel of professional rugby, and it gives opportunity to younger players, it would be nice to see a close to full squad play.

Full strength teams are rare in rugby. When was the last time anyone can say you had a full strength team out?

Almost never, but we had similar numbers out in the Autumn. I didn't mention any other team, just that it's a shame that we don't get to see our best players on the pitch at the same time.

It is frustrating. To lose 5 players from his chosen starting lineup in one game, is madness in itself.

I suppose it does afford Pivac a bit more slack though.

It's perhaps one reason for Scotland's strong start. Hooker aside, where we are down to a very decent 3rd choice, we were pretty much full strength against England. A few bench players missing, but the starting XV was probably one position shy of Toonie's first choice team.

If Turner carries on in last weeks vein, he may well be pushing for the starting spot in any case.

It was mainly the brain farts holding him back before, not his ability.

Now he has the chance he may wise up and grab the shirt off the ogher 2.

McInally has not quite looked himself this year and Brown has had many hard years in the coalface and is injury prone now.

RiscaGame wrote:This would've been a big ask for Wales anyway, but the knocks picked up yesterday haven't helped at all. I worry about us in the centre now and think Pivac will go for Watkin to counter Redpath.

I think Wales will not make too many changes, aside from the injured players so;

Wyn Jones, Ken Owens, Tomas Francis, Adam Beard, AWJ, Josh Navidi, Justin Tipuric, Taulupe Faletau, Gareth Davies, Dan Biggar, Liam Williams, Owen Watkin, George North (if fit), LRZ, Leigh Halfpenny.

Elliot Dee, Rhodri Jones, Leon Brown, Will Rowlands, Aaron Wainwright, Kieran Hardy, Callum Sheedy, Nick Tompkins (if fit).

Morning Campers
Risca mate, as much as Wales have been unlucky with so many injuries to their backs, that pack looks (apart from Ball for Beard) looks as strong as it could be. Tompkins in for North is not too shabby and an on-form Liam Williams (potentially a Lions starter) over Amos will only strengthen the starting 15

It's going to be a tight game

Over the last year you could point to Scotland being slight favourites, BUT the way Wales have been able to mitigate and smother Scotland over the last 10 years, plus their scoring ability, I would still have the Welsh as slight favourites

One we should be aiming to win (especially at home), but not confident..........

Oh man, Wales are struggling further now, with Navidi out. I can't see Wainwright and Tipuric coping with the Scottish pair.