Bivol Can't Win

I've already mentioned on here that I am not a fan of the WBA's refusal to sanction Russian fighters in line with the rest of the Federations. I believe that this fight should not be taking place, but it's not my call - when the highest earner calls, people listen. You have to ask if the WBA would have their current stance if it wasn't for Bivol fighting Canelo? They will want to line their wallets after all, and why not get the highest earner on board for another of their titles? Sanctioning fees will be high...

Still, let's put my dislike of the WBA to one side for a moment. Aside from the money aspect of the fight, Bivol will have a hard job winning. It's Canelo, and history has taught us that he's unlikely to be easy to outpoint, even if it's supposedly obvious (the Mayweather fight, for example). Granted, Bivol's last half dozen fights have pretty much been 12 round shutouts, but the quality of opponent isn't really there. He doesn't have great power, but is a real technician. Regardless of Andre Ward's suggestion that Canelo should leave Bivol well alone, here we are. A challenge? Canelo's never been backwards in challenging himself. Kudos to him.

Thing is, Bivol holds a Russian passport. He is not Russian-born (he is from Kyrgyzstan), and although he has denounced the war, and will not have the Russian anthem played, there will doubtless be a little seed planted in the judges' minds that "we shouldn't let the Russian passport holder win - it's bad for the sport". Politically, it will likely be a headline grabbing win for Canelo - not only does he beat one of the good Light Heavy Champions, but there's the added public support that he's "a Russian" and is therefore the enemy.

Bivol is a pretty good boxer. He does not really have the power to stop Canelo, but under normal circumstances could have a fair chance of defeating him. However, I just can't see it happening. The whole situation is too political, so even if Bivol has the fight of his life and cruises to what looks like an easy points decision, he's going to get shafted. This fight is going to be either a UD for Canelo, or if it's anything like close, or even what under normal circumstances should be a Bivol win, Canelo wins by MD or even a SD. At least Bivol will be leaving the ring with enough money to look after his family for life.

I am probably being over cynical, but unless the unthinkable happens and there's a Bivol KO of Canelo, I simply can't see it any other way.

Last time Canelo fought at 175, against a shot to pieces Kovalev, ‘Krusher’ was totally outclassing Canelo. Then came the Kovalev’s dive to let Canelo win.
Bivol has less power but has considerably more talent Kovalev.
Canelo was considerably slower at 175 as well.

Bivol on points.

Think it'll be the standard Canelo formula here. Bivol to look okay doing some neat and tidy, but very feather-fisted and conservative, pot shorting on the outside early on. Gradually cedes ground as Canelo, who looks like he's blinding himself with his guard and should be very hittable, keeps creeping forward, steps it up in the second half and stops Bivol late, probably set up with body shots.

Well, fight's over and realistically it's nothing more than a draw if you were being very, very (and I mean very) kind to Canelo. I've got Bivol by a couple at least.

Let's see if the judges do their usual and come out with unfathomable cards for Canelo.

We give thanks. Finally a Canelo opponent gets a fair shake on the cards. Bivol gets it 115-113 x 3.

Dmitry Bivol schools Canelo Alvarez. An absolute master class by the Russian. His jab totally dominated the Mexican.

Terrible scorecards 115-113 115-113 115-113

Alvarez won 2 rounds max.

Bivol vs Beterbiev yes please.

Think I scored it 9-3 Bivol. I'd put money on the draw assuming Bivol would outbox him and get shafted. It was too one sided to even do that.

Credit to Canelo, he dared to be great, but he came in believing his hype. It didn't look like he had any interest in winning by decision until the halfway through when he realised he couldn't hurt him.

Didn't see the fight but pleased that this time there was no miraculous scorecard(s) for Canelo.

I had it closer than most fans seem to, Jeff (nice call by the way) but no doubt that Bivol won the fight clearly.

I've been cynical about Canelo's claims to greatness and pound for pound supremacy, as have plenty of others, precisely because of fights like this. He can be made to look so average and plodding against decent boxers, the difference this time is that his opponent didn't fold as soon as they tasted a big punch and the judges didn't bail him out as they have before. Listening to the DAZN commentators, it's almost like they were trying to prep the viewers for another Canelo hometowner just in case.

I don't think Bivol was all that special himself tonight, in fact there were rounds where he'd frustrate the hell out of me by barely throwing a shot and failing to back up a good round previously, and in the early rounds he was refusing to really sit on a lot of his punches. But he just didn't give Canelo easy countering openings, was well-conditioned and wasn't afraid to stay in position long enough to take enough of the chances presented to him.

Looks like it'll be an immediate rematch judging by Hearn's comments, so Golovkin won't be getting his third crack at Canelo after all. At least not in September as originally planned.

Really don’t see the need for a rematch, aside from Bivol getting a mega payday.

Also Álvarez is risking his titles at 168 if he goes again against Bivol - Álvarez claims the undisputed thing is very important for him.

I think the trilogy with GGG will never happen now.

I stand corrected. Superb from Bivol. Nice prediction from Jeff. Unexpected and well, wow!

Shows I don't know much

If Usyk beats Joshua.. Now Canelo and Whyte have lost...

Don't expect Benn to fight anything decent in the near future...

Won't be too many cows to milk..

Some people thought that Canelo would fairly easily beat the current WBC cruiserweight champion Ilunga Makabu when plans for that fight were first announced.   Shortly before Canelo's fight with Bivol there was some talk, from Hearns and others, that Canelo could fight Usyk for the Heavyweight title in the near future, and win.

Eddy Reynoso claims the judges ‘robbed’ Álvarez and that the Mexican won clearly. Got to love the delusional head coach.
Álvarez himself claims Bivol won 4-5 rounds max.

A man that’s built a legacy on corrupt scorecards claiming he was robbed. Lol brainless.

Turns up the heat nicely on the Richards/Buatsi fight as if that superb little domestic clash needed any further ratcheting up

And can Bivol win any rematch on the cards with Canelo even if he wins as clearly as he won last night?

Bivol made $2m last night. Unless DAZN is willing to bump that up to $8-10m I don’t see the rematch happening.

Bivol’s co-promoter World of Boxing says Beterbiev vs Bivol could see both men earn $20m+

Jeff Navarro wrote:Eddy Reynoso claims the judges ‘robbed’ Álvarez and that the Mexican won clearly. Got to love the delusional head coach.
Álvarez himself claims Bivol won 4-5 rounds max.

A man that’s built a legacy on corrupt scorecards claiming he was robbed. Lol brainless.

The breakdown of the official cards has been released, and all three judges gave Canelo a completely clean sweep of the first four rounds. Not a single one in favour of Bivol across the board rounds 1-4.

A couple of the early rounds were close and low-key (I had them winning two apiece for what it's worth) but we've seen it enough with Canelo now to know that this was no coincidence. I actually thought the fight was closer than a lot of people are saying, albeit still a clear win for Bivol, but looking at how those first four rounds scored it's almost miraculous that the judges let him get the verdict. If Canelo hadn't looked so gassed and ragged he could have escaped with a draw had he wound up a few more shots landing on Bivol's arms and gloves!

If he loses a rematch  to Bivol then the mega paydays are over aren’t they? If he moves back to 68 after that then he has to see a certain David Benavidez doesn’t he or fans will start saying you know what they were right he WAS being well managed? So who knows maybe the Canelo train now coming to a halt a little bit?  But they’ve done a helluva job with him. He never really accomplished enough to earn these kind of paydays. But that’s boxing nowadays. And for the people who said he could beat Beterbiev well they should know better. Only after beating Benavidez and Beterbiev would he have earned the right to the mega money imho. Fair play to Canelo though, class in defeat

I think it'll take more than that for Canelo to lose his cash cow status, Herman. De La Hoya dropped a few decisions but remained the golden ticket for guys in and around his weight class right until his final days. Even Mayweather and Pacquiao got the short end of the purse against him, and this was when we all knew Oscar's best days were a long way behind him, and Floyd and Manny were already big names in their own right.

If 2007 Mayweather and 2008 Pacquiao (considering what they'd already achieved by then) aren't dictating terms against De La Hoya, then I don't see the likes of Bivol in a rematch, Charlo, Benavidez, Andrade etc. holding many aces against Canelo, and certainly not having any more lucrative fights to chase. Those guys are small fry in comparison.

Another non-Heavyweight cash cow will come along (or be manufactured) eventually, but it's hard to say who it'll be with any certainty right now. Not too many guys coming through who have a USP or genuine star quality. I think Canelo will continue to be everyone's meal ticket for a couple more years or so yet.

Nice humble dude Bivol, no boasting, no attitude. A true champ. Such a contrast to a certain Vladimir Putin

Herman Jaeger wrote:If he loses a rematch  to Bivol then the mega paydays are over aren’t they? If he moves back to 68 after that then he has to see a certain David Benavidez doesn’t he or fans will start saying you know what they were right he WAS being well managed? So who knows maybe the Canelo train now coming to a halt a little bit?  But they’ve done a helluva job with him. He never really accomplished enough to earn these kind of paydays. But that’s boxing nowadays. And for the people who said he could beat Beterbiev well they should know better. Only after beating Benavidez and Beterbiev would he have earned the right to the mega money imho. Fair play to Canelo though, class in defeat

I don't like Alvarez for reasons i've stated many times but to insinuate that he's been well managed his so far from the mark; Smith, Saunders and Plant were all undefeated champions. Benavidez is a decent fighter but he's not at a level above any of them so not sure it's something to hold against him when he's just gone up in weight to fight Bivol.

Four weight world champion, undisputed champion, fairly entertaining style, fight anyone and Mexican; I can't think of any reason why he's become so marketable. I wouldn't rule Alvarez out against Beterbiev, in fact i'd expect him to outbox him quite comfortably, the big question is whether he can stay on his feet.

It's the go here. Fighter X should beat Fighter Y, when they lose it's always because Fighter X was worse than marketed. Bit boring honestly.

Cutely managed I’m sticking with that, Bivol was the first real fight he’s had since Golovkin. If you can’t see it then god help you

Herman Jaeger wrote:Cutely managed I’m sticking with that, Bivol was the first real fight he’s had since Golovkin. If you can’t see it then god help you

So you're saying Saunders and Smith weren't real fights?

Saunders is a disgusting human being but he is a top drawer boxer, his ability isn't in question while Smith was also very good. Alvarez won both quite easily but that doesn't mean they weren't real fights.

How on earth does Saunders get a fight with Canelo before Andrade?

Herman Jaeger wrote:How on earth does Saunders get a fight with Canelo before Andrade?

He's better with a better record whilst holding a world title in the same division.

Andrade has talent but he's dull to watch and his resume is so thin, Martirosyan is the most significant win he has and that was over eight years ago. Lemiuex, Lee, Eubank and Monroe are better than anyone Andrade has beaten. I've asked before with regards to this, what fight should I be watching that showcases Andrade?

Avoiding mandatories and always choosing fighters who he perceives as losing momentum, that’s how I see Canelo. He thought Bivol was a soft touch what he didn’t know was Spider Richards is actually quite good

Still a helluva fighter but far from unbeatable as some people have been suggesting. At least the hype will die down a little bit which is a bit of a relief . Sorry can’t engage any more, something to do

Sorry but anyone thinking that Bivol was a soft touch doesn’t know boxing. Bivol is a master technician. Also for Alvarez it was an easier fight to make as the share Eddie Hearn as adviser/promoter.

Beterbiev was also going to fight Smith Jr, and they only way Alvarez got they fight was if DAZN overpaid. Why should they do that when they had a 175 title holder already on their roster.

You’re not listening Jeff, I said Canelo saw Bivol as a soft touch after the Richards fight

Jeff Navarro wrote:Sorry but anyone thinking that Bivol was a soft touch doesn’t know boxing. Bivol is a master technician. Also for Alvarez it was an easier fight to make as the share Eddie Hearn as adviser/promoter.

Beterbiev was also going to fight Smith Jr, and they only way Alvarez got they fight was if DAZN overpaid. Why should they do that when they had a 175 title holder already on their roster.

There tends to be a lot of top drawer guys around 160-175lbs but you can't fight them all at the same time; if he fought Benavidez instead of Callum Smith we'd get told he's avoiding the bigger guy whose reach and height would pose problems.

Danny Jacobs and Liam Beefy Smith were good wins, Kovalev was on the slide and had his chin cracked in the Ward fight but still a good knockout victory

Nobody’s saying Canelo isn’t a great fighter, just far from unbeatable and the three who can beat him(excluding Bivol) he hasn’t boxed- Andrade, Benavidez and Beterbiev.  Could he beat Yarde I wonder? That’s not a given

Bivol suggests he would comedown to 168 for the rematch if it’s for the Álvarez’s undisputed title.
Normally I would consider this as bravado but Bivol also wanted to face Callum Smith at 168, when the Brit was WBA Champion - Hearn didn’t let it happen.
Basically calling Álvarez’s bluff is Bivol.

Herman Jaeger wrote:Danny Jacobs and Liam Beefy Smith were good wins, Kovalev was on the slide and had his chin cracked in the Ward fight but still a good knockout victory

Nobody’s saying Canelo isn’t a great fighter, just far from unbeatable and the three who can beat him(excluding Bivol) he hasn’t boxed- Andrade, Benavidez and Beterbiev.  Could he beat Yarde I wonder? That’s not a given

You'll have to explain your reasoning behind thinking Andrade can beat him as I just don't see it; the American has never fought at world level. I'd like to see the Benavidez fight in the future but the goal was to become undisputed champion and he didn't hold a belt so understandably didn't happen, also think Alvarez wins quite easily.

If we discount the Kovalev fight for the joke that it was, Alvarez has only just stepped up to 175lbs and faced the divisions consensus number two. Yarde? No chance.

The Kovalev fight a joke? Don’t understand. Why would anyone need to call that fight a joke? Kovalev was doing well until he got clipped. Not much to say about that fight

Whatever I think of the Russia situation Hearn's talk of rematch is folly in the extreme...

A much bigger fighter with a world class jab is too big of a problem for Alvarez to solve at this stage or maybe any stage of his career..

Leonard fared hardly any better with Hearns 10 years later...and he was an ATG..

Canelo can't out muscle a solid 175er either.

Return with GGG instead.

Scorecards: Canelo vs Bivol. All judges scorecards were identical.
1) 10:9 Canelo 1 round up
2) 10:9 Canelo 2 rounds up
3) 10:9 Canelo 3 rounds up
4) 10:9 Canelo 4 rounds up
5) 9:10 Canelo 3 rounds up
6) 9:10 Canelo 2 rounds up
7) 9:10 Canelo 1 round up
8) 9:10 Draw
9) 10:9 Canelo 1 round up
10) 9:10 Draw
11) 9:10 Bivol 1 round up
12) 9:10 Bivol 2 rounds up

It seems like the Judges were taking their cue from a script to ensure the best chance of awarding Canelo the victory. They could play it by ear as to what they could get away with- hence the last two rounds.

Just goes to show how bent the judges are for the ‘A side’ fighter.

Alvarez landed only 84 punches in the entire fight, Bivol landed 152.

Bivol outlanded Alvarez in every single round.

Yet they still gave Alvarez 5 rounds.

And Bivol was more dominant than GGG was in the first fight with Alvarez yet he still nearly got jobbed.

Jeff Navarro wrote:.... Yet they still gave Alvarez 5 rounds.  

And the rounds were given out tactically so that a) Canelo would have won if the fight had been stopped early due to an accidental head butt. b) Canelo was winning on the cumulative scorecards for most of the fight - 8 rounds,  was drawing for two of the rounds, and only went behind after rounds 11 and 12.  The judges did their job ensuring Canelo was never behind up to the start of round eleven.

No name Bertie wrote:

Jeff Navarro wrote:.... Yet they still gave Alvarez 5 rounds.  

And the rounds were given out tactically so that a) Canelo would have won if the fight had been stopped early due to an accidental head butt. b) Canelo was winning on the cumulative scorecards for most of the fight - 8 rounds,  was drawing for two of the rounds, and only went behind after rounds 11 and 12.  The judges did their job ensuring Canelo was never behind up to the start of round eleven.

Very good points.

I find Alvarez so frustrating, he's someone I really do want to like, his resume is stacked but the failed drugs test and iffy scorecards don't make me inclined to like him. The first Golovkin fight he clearly lost but aside from that there hasn't been a robbery but there's always that one rogue scorecard that makes you wonder. Even the scorecards in the Mayweather fight were a joke, he won one round at most yet was given 6, 4 and 3 rounds by the judges.

There have been close fights where he's got the benefit of the doubt but I tend to favour the aggressor in close fights so have scored them to him.

He’ll never be a great light heavyweight, he can be a great super middleweight though. There’s one really good fight waiting for him there. Wins that he’s back on top

Alvarez has two fights left with DAZN, there’s zero chance that Benavidez, Charlo or Beterbiev will go across to fight on DAZN. Just remember even for the Plant fight, Alvarez had to go and fight on Fox PPV.

So Alvarez will fight two DAZN fighters next. Then become a free agent in 2023.

And Benavidez isn’t actually WBC mandatory yet. He’s #1 ranked but has to beat Lemieux. Then the mandatory get called. Basically the situation Whyte was in.

If Canelo would say after my Dazone contract is up I’m fighting David Benavidez, everyone knows that’s my toughest challenge at 68 so that’s the man I’m fighting. The fans want it so that’s the fight for me- then that would be maximum respect in my book

Glad Canelo lost. I always felt the Kovalev fight was a pre arranged dive so not surprised a class light heavyweight who wanted to win beat him.

No more idiot talk about a Usyk fight now. Canelo gets surprisingly more powerful the more he steps up. From a light middle that couldn't polish off Matthew Hatton to a guy that cleans out super middles and light heavy. Seems a bit of an iffy guy.

According to Dan Rafael, Alvarez vs Bivol did 520,000 PPVs - $36.4m.
DAZN said to be ‘disappointed’
No wonder they don’t want to do the rematch.

Supposedly it's 600k in North America - which makes for closer to $50m. It's the highest purchased fight of the year so far, UFC or boxing, so I think it says something about the state of the PPV model as a whole as much as it does about the horror job DAZN did marketing this fight.

Saying all that, given Dazn's a streaming service, I think they would be just as interested in how many of those 600k-odd sign ups are new and, more importantly, lasting sign ups. If say, 150k of them are new and stay on for a year, that's an extra $45m in their coffers. DAZN's actually got a great model for a boxing streaming service now. Four PPVs a year max (the AJ and Canelo fights) and then a bunch of low cost fights to keep people signed on, like Serrano-Taylor or Buatsi-Richards Even if they only have 2.5 million subscibers in North America and Britain, that would still be $600m gross a year before taking PPV into account.

The problem is they're trying to be a tech unicorn. And for that you need continued growth. I'm not sure how bigger their boxing arm can get and it 100% is not big enough to get them where they wanna be. So they're gonna have to make tough decisions at some point soon.

There’s two price points for the PPV KingRaf
$59.99 for DAZN subscribers
$79.99 for standalone

I'm aware. But DAZN is $19.99 per month. You can't pay the $59.99 price without a monthly subscription. So it's $80 to watch the fight.

Alvarez opts against immediate rematch with Bivol. Says ‘we’ve already agreed the deal with Golovkin’.
Bivol isn’t obligated to fight Alvarez again despite the Mexican claiming they’ll fight in May 2023.