URC 23/24 Round 2- The Halloween edition

Well it is Halloween so will it be trick or treat for the URC teams this weekend? Round 2 is upon us and I want to play a game.

As an Ulster fan the thought of the Bulls having a go at our defence frightens the life out of me.

All games are on Viaplay, SuperSport, URC TV and Flo Sports. All kick off times are UK/Ireland time.

Saturday 28th October 2023
Ospreys v Zebre Parma- 13:00- BBC Wales
Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea

Connacht v Glasgow Warriors- 15:00- TG4
Sportsground, Galway

DHL Stormers v Scarlets- 15:00- S4C
Danie Craven Stadium, Stellenbosch

Leinster v Hollywoodbets Sharks- 16:55- RTE 2
The RDS Stadium, Dublin

Edinburgh v Emirates Lions- 17:00
Hive Stadium, Edinburgh

Sunday 29th October 2023
Benetton v Munster- 14:00- RTE 2
Stadio Monigo, Treviso

Dragons v Cardiff Rugby- 14:30
Rodney Parade, Newport

Ulster v Vodacom Bulls- 17:00- BBC NI, TG 4
Kingspan Stadium, Belfast

Other than Stormers stuffing Scarlets there are some hard to call matches in that list

Oh yaaaaaayyy. Our annual defeat to Cardiff has come around really quick.

Really worried with Reed having to play ten in this. If he’s fit (and he should be, as he hasn’t been called a doubt or injured in the press), I think I would play Jordan Williams 15 and keep AOB 10, tbh.

What odds Dragons to build an early lead and then thrown it away towards the end of the game?! ‘Tis our M.O.! Well, that and just losing normally

After criticising Ospreys at the start of their match against Connacht the other day, they did come back and play some good rugby and score some good tries. Still lost but with a 4 try BP and a point or two off an LBP too. Just a terrible start. I’m backing them to pull out a BP win vs Zebre.

Scarlets - geez. Don’t know what to think. Can’t see anything other than a large 50+ loss! Hate to say that as they’ve always been my 2nd Welsh team. But out in SA for another game against arguably stronger competition I just can’t see that they’re going to be up to the task.

Dragons: J Williams; J Rosser, Tomkinson, Hughes (captain), Hewitt; O’Brien, Blacker; Martinez, Roberts, Fairbrother, Screech, Carter, Lonsdale, Keddie, Lydiate.

Replacements: Benjamin, R Jones, Brown, J Davies, Nott, R Williams, Reed, Dixon.


Cardiff: Winnett; Summerhill, Grady, Halaholo, Cabango; de Beer, Tomos Williams; Domachowski, Belcher (captain), Assiratti, Lewis-Hughes, Teddy Williams, Mann, E Jenkins, S Davies.


Replacements: Daniel, Carre, Litterick, Thornton, Young, Bevan, B Thomas, Millard.

Dragons have done what I prefer with AOB at 10. Bit weird them naming Lydiate at 8, but I would expect Keddie to play there really.

Ulster team to play the Bulls
(1-8) Andy Warwick, Tom Stewart, Tom O’Toole, Alan O’Connor (C), Kieran Treadwell, Dave Ewers, Dave McCann, Nick Timoney;

(15-9) Will Addison, Rob Baloucoune, James Hume, Jude Postlethwaite, Jacob Stockdale, Billy Burns, Nathan Doak.

Replacements: John Andrew, Callum Reid, Greg McGrath, Cormac Izuchukwu, Marcus Rea, Dave Shanahan, Stewart Moore, Mike Lowry.

Looking forward to see how Postlethwaite goes. Plus probably our strongest back 3 imo. O'Toole straight back in as well.

Leinster Rugby (caps in brackets):
15. Ciarán Frawley (68)
14. Tommy O’Brien (25)
13. Jamie Osborne (31)
12. Charlie Ngatai (16)
11. Jordan Larmour (90)
10. Harry Byrne (52)
9. Cormac Foley (12)
1. Jack Boyle (3)
2. Lee Barron (8)
3. Michael Ala’alatoa (47)
4. Ross Molony (163)
5. Jason Jenkins (20)
6. Rhys Ruddock (222)
7. Scott Penny (57) CAPTAIN
8. Max Deegan (99)

Replacements:
16. Dylan Donnellan (0)
17. Paddy McCarthy (1)
18. Rory McGuire (1)
19. Brian Deeny (14)
20. Will Connors (37)
21. Ben Murphy (3)
22. Sam Prendergast (3)
23. Rob Russell (18)

I think Leinster improve from their drubbing last week. This has the opportunity for a victory.

Caps shows hardly any experience in the front row (with the exception of Ala-alatoa), second row should hold it's own. Back row should start strong and Connors is a good replacement. Starting backline should hold it's own.

This week we've got a chance.

If it wasn't for the Leinster front row I would make them clear favourites at home.

Ulster putting out the strongest team available

Keeping it under 45 points would be an achievement for us out in South Africa this weekend.

That Leinster front five and replacements got taken to task against Glasgow. Sharks are missing their first choice front row of Nche - Mbonambi - Koch so will see if they are still able to take advantage. Sharsk have put out seven SA caps and a Scotland cap in the 23 so not a bad side to take on Leinster.

Ntuthuko Mchunu / Kerron van Vuuren / Hanro Jacobs (Dian Bleuler / Dylan Richardson / Khwezi Mona)
Corne Rahl / Emile van Heerden (Hyron Andrews)
James Venter / Phepsi Buthelezi / Vincent Tshituka (George Cronje)

Cameron Wright / Curwin Bosch (Francois Hougaard* / Boeta Chamberlain)
Rohan Janse van Rensburg/Francois Venter (c)
Marnus Potgieter / Aphelele Fassi / Werner Kok (Aphiwe Dyantyi*)

Interestingly from a Scotland perspective is if Richardson is going to be hooker more often this year. We have plenty of young flankers but struggling for youth in the front row.

geoff999rugby wrote:Other than Stormers stuffing Scarlets there are some hard to call matches in that list

I'll give it a crack....wonder if i can get 7 out of 8 this week.

Ospreys vs Zebre - Ospreys by 5 points
Connacht vs Glasgow - Glasgow by 15 Points
Stormers vs Scarlets - Stormers by 25+ Points
Leinster vs Sharks - Leinster by 12 Points
Edinburgh vs Lions - Edinburgh by 1 Point
Benetton vs Munster - Benetton by 3 Points
Dragons vs Cardiff - Cardiff by 5 Points
Ulster vs Bulls - Bulls by 20 Points

Benjamin neither a good flanker or hooker, and somehow in the squad over a specialist hooker like Coughlan. Lydiate at 8 is unexpected, on attack I’d swap him around with Lonsdale. Nott, a second row on the bench as back-row cover by the look of it. Strange calls from Dai for me.

ospreys getting creamed early on by Zebre. Looks like my opening prediction is in danger here....

Ospreys back in it - nice couple of tries.....now in the lead

Gesi having a hell of a game. He looked good last year. That Zebre backline look dangerous. They keep playing like that all season they will cause teams problems...

Agreed Shroom, Gesi looks a decent player. Tips is his usual classy self. Zebre were very, very unlucky to lose last week...perhaps today might be their turn to get lucky.

Ospreys miss a penalty just before half time....in fairness Zebre deserve to go into the break with the lead.....been the better side and some poor discipline probably cost them a larger point gap with some silly errors and penalties..... the Zebre pack looks to be bigger and stronger than the Ospreys.....

Ospreys ahead by 5 points - if it stays like this my prediction will be spot on

A complete contrast, again, between Scarlets and their opponents. What has Peel been doing with them during pre-season?

How did the Lions not win that match?

I thought Glasgow would win, but maybe Connacht are the surprise package this year.

Late change for Dragons. Lydiate out for personal reasons. Nott to 6, Lonsdale to 7, Keddie to 8.

Coghlan on the bench, which I assume means Benjamin is now backrow cover. Seems strange not to have Basham for this, who had the same workload as Tomos Williams really?

I thought Nott was really good last year for us at Lock when he played. Seemed to carry well. Not sure how good he is at 6 though. He looked a bit out of place last week.

Benjamin used to be a openside for years so will be used to be playing there.

mikey_dragon wrote:I thought Glasgow would win, but maybe Connacht are the surprise package this year.

Yeah to be honest they ruined my perfect pick weekend. I should know better than to class them as underdogs at home. They always perform better than they should. Just goes to show how much coaching makes a difference.

Treviso are playing really well at home. If they keep this up I'll have another week with just one result called incorrectly.

Early season issue for Welsh sides have become very clear. Regions really dont have a lot of quality in the tight 5's and missing some ball carrying backrows.

They have done a real pish poor job of developing the next batch and there should have been a lot of 24/25 olds developed in those positions. But the old heads are not good enough and the next generation behind them are barely past U20 rugby. Going to be years before they sort that out now I reckon.

Good job Frank, not buying the Cardiff trying to con scrum offences (on the second occasion at least).

Fair play I'm a big fan of Rosser. He's carried on early this year as he did last season. Really like his work rate and effort.

Sio is playing well as well. We still have a problem at 15 though. We do lack ball carriers though in the pack and im still not 100% on our props if i'm honest.

RiscaGame wrote:Good job Frank, not buying the Cardiff trying to con scrum offences (on the second occasion at least).

Cardiff's pack doesnt look great to me. Think we are edging that area for a change.

I cant believe in the whole of Wales there isnt a talented 10 that should be playing instead of De Beer.

Meanwhile Treviso are pulling away from Munster at half time 13-3.

Another score could put this beyond Munster.

Rubbish half really. Seems very flat for a derby, on the pitch and on the terrace. At least the game looks beyond Dragons already, so there's no hope to kill me.

Big worry for Dragons to have lost two winnable home games.

Welshmushroom wrote:Meanwhile Treviso are pulling away from Munster at half time 13-3.

Another score could put this beyond Munster.

You may not be aware that the club is called Benetton Rugby since beginning of 2017/18 season.  https://benettonrugby.it

Munster lucky to get a late try to level the scores at the end - 13-13.

Welshmushroom wrote:I cant believe in the whole of Wales there isnt a talented 10 that should be playing instead of De Beer.  

He’s looked alright from what I’ve seen, and they also have Ben Thomas. I’m starting to agree with you on Scarlets needing a pack of new forwards though.

Very poor for Dragons to lose at home again and this time to very average opposition. Why some thought we’d be the best Welsh region this year beggars belief - same story as usual, in need of new players and some new assistant coaches. I wonder if Cardiff will be top Region? They have a slightly worse team than last season so I’m not sure. Ospreys still have the best set piece, but their third LH and second TH are not looking so good. I wonder why Rhys Davies isn’t back in the squad over Carter and Teddy? He is clearly the better player and doesn’t look soft.

Ulster did well to get a lead early on then kick well to make sure they kept it after the the rain really started tipping it down in the last 25 mins.
Butchered a few chances to potentially have scored more tries but against the Bulls it was an excellent win.

Not sure who the ref was but seemed to be pretty consistent throughout the game, felt like he had a good game.

De Beer made some errors, but looked better than AOB, who has been loosely talked about as worthy of a Welsh squad place with Biggar retiring and Anscombe moving on.

I feel for Dragons a little, as it shows the risk of having such small squads. You're not going to win games with a backrow of Nott, Lonsdale/Carter and Benjamin (who is now clearly conditioned to be a hooker). Things will get worse next week again, when we have to lose two more players to this farce of a Barbarians fixture and with some of the injuries probably not healing by next week.

What is worrying is looking at the Senior Academy page yesterday, there is not much showing there for a backrow player. The nearest player is Ryan Woodman. There doesn't really seem to be anybody of note for the three Premiership sides either (in fact the best players with a Dragons connection were probably playing for Merthyr on the weekend, albeit one has a contract shortly in USA).

Hard to know where Dragons next win will come from. Can't even bank on a home win v Zebre in March. I also worry for our crowds now, with us only getting 5272 for what is usually our biggest gate. Seeing as the Buttress consortium seemingly may have picked up Dragons for a steal, then the usual suspects will be busting to put the boot into us, the longer the results continue.

Nice to know there is room for two marquee players, but can we afford the 500K per annum salary? What else could convince them to come and play in Wales .

On Woodman... He was a passenger for the U20s. I'm a little concerned about the next raft coming through, although we have developed good players in certain positions like the back-row and back 3. Griffiths was injured again but it wasn't far off our first choice pack - which again is concerning given who we got and some players still not being played in their best position.

I also don't think AOB is far off, very fast and skillful, but he needs to continue improving before making the international squad. I doubt Cai Evans is at that level, yet we see him and people like Rogers and Hardy included for the Baa-baa's.

neilthom7 wrote:Ulster did well to get a lead early on then kick well to make sure they kept it after the the rain really started tipping it down in the last 25 mins.
Butchered a few chances to potentially have scored more tries but against the Bulls it was an excellent win.

Not sure who the ref was but seemed to be pretty consistent throughout the game, felt like he had a good game.

That sounds like a good win against Bulls, they might have the strongest squad of forwards in the competition, and possibly Europe. Looks like Ulster will do alright this season after all.

Welshmushroom wrote:

geoff999rugby wrote:Other than Stormers stuffing Scarlets there are some hard to call matches in that list

I'll give it a crack....wonder if i can get 7 out of 8 this week.

Ospreys vs Zebre - Ospreys by 5 points
Connacht vs Glasgow - Glasgow by 15 Points
Stormers vs Scarlets - Stormers by 25+ Points
Leinster vs Sharks - Leinster by 12 Points
Edinburgh vs Lions - Edinburgh by 1 Point
Benetton vs Munster - Benetton by 3 Points
Dragons vs Cardiff - Cardiff by 5 Points
Ulster vs Bulls - Bulls by 20 Points

Ok Ospreys won by 3
Connacht won by 8 - got that one wrong
Stormers won by 45
Leinster won by 21
Edinburgh won by 1
Munster/Benetton drew - got that one wrong
Cardiff won by 7
Ulster won by 7 - got that one wrong

So 5 out of 8 this weekend. Ulster surprised me and that was a big win for them. Also Connacht beating Glasgow was a great result for them too. Munster/Benetton i had pegged as a close one.

Some very good performances this weekend.

mikey_dragon wrote:

neilthom7 wrote:Ulster did well to get a lead early on then kick well to make sure they kept it after the the rain really started tipping it down in the last 25 mins.
Butchered a few chances to potentially have scored more tries but against the Bulls it was an excellent win.

Not sure who the ref was but seemed to be pretty consistent throughout the game, felt like he had a good game.

That sounds like a good win against Bulls, they might have the strongest squad of forwards in the competition, and possibly Europe. Looks like Ulster will do alright this season after all.

Ah Mikey we won't have this kind of positive chatter, this is Ulster and we love a good crisis so we will stick to we are doomed thanks lol

Connachts first 3 games are at home, is that just a quirk of the scheduling or is there a specific reason for it?

Welshmushroom wrote:

Welshmushroom wrote:

geoff999rugby wrote:Other than Stormers stuffing Scarlets there are some hard to call matches in that list

I'll give it a crack....wonder if i can get 7 out of 8 this week.

Ospreys vs Zebre - Ospreys by 5 points
Connacht vs Glasgow - Glasgow by 15 Points
Stormers vs Scarlets - Stormers by 25+ Points
Leinster vs Sharks - Leinster by 12 Points
Edinburgh vs Lions - Edinburgh by 1 Point
Benetton vs Munster - Benetton by 3 Points
Dragons vs Cardiff - Cardiff by 5 Points
Ulster vs Bulls - Bulls by 20 Points

Ok Ospreys won by 3
Connacht won by 8 - got that one wrong
Stormers won by 45
Leinster won by 21
Edinburgh won by 1
Munster/Benetton drew - got that one wrong
Cardiff won by 7
Ulster won by 7 - got that one wrong

So 5 out of 8 this weekend.  Ulster surprised me and that was a big win for them.  Also Connacht beating Glasgow was a great result for them too.  Munster/Benetton i had pegged as a close one.

Some very good performances this weekend.

Good work on those predictions.