IF, IF, New Zealand do not, i repeat do not win the Rugby World Cup! !

First topic message reminder :

This year, Who do you expect to win? Every body is expecting NZ to win it this year with out even trying very hard.

My self although i would like England to win, But i do believe that this year could be too early for England at the moment.

I realy think Australia might just surprise us this year.

Who do you think/expect to win if New Zealand Dont win?

...their wives will most likely be there too

so its a tour...but not a holiday...

:run2:

Everybody is NOT expecting NZ to win without trying very hard,that is just arrogant rubbish.In RWC`s ALL teams start equal there is no home advantage.
Injuries before,and during the Tourny will effect all sides,in RWC`s there are NO second chances.
After the group stage ANY side can beat any other,IF NZ don`t win it I hope a new name will be on it this year.

Every body is expecting NZ to win it this year with out even trying very hard

.

Maybe everyone in the NH is expecting the AB's to walk it. Understandable, as NH wins against the AB's can be counted on one hand. As much as the NH may think (or believe) it, the All Blacks do not walk on water and SBW is not the messiah. The Wallabies and Springboks are capable of beating them and it wouldn't be a surprise to see them do so.

Can't really agree we dont have home advantage Alan. Just because others havnt in World cups it doesnt apply to us. We've never lost a home world cup match and I see there are many advantages, the intimidating presence of playing the AB's on Eden Park being one.

Any team would be kidding themselves if they didnt agree that we have home advantage in a match there.

I saw the game at Athletic park against Australia where the ABs handed the Wallabies a lesson in wet weather rugby. They hammered them 46 - 6 with no answer in the second half.

I remember the stadium rocking in the wind and thought that she could fall over at any stage. They just don´t make them like that anymore, with the ground essentially a big wind tunnel device to harness the roaring southerly. If more games had been played there, I do think we would´ve seen the first stadium´s recorded flight.

Taylorman the travel factor[jet lag]is taken out of the home advantage.
Not lost a cup match in NZ? sorry 1987 is a very long way away.
Boks won in both 2008 and 2009 away,one at Dunedin[ the house of pain].
Seldom win in NZ Boks on tour usuall y won at least one match in the Series.

Yes but the point being made is whether there is home advantage. Yes 87 is a long time ago and yes we are not invincible. But to suggest one loss in 34 at eden park does not give nz home advantage is just wrong. Of course it does.

I don't like historical stats as a prescendent.

For example, didn't France beat us there two years ago? or am I mistaken?

I'm never sure where the home advantage idea really comes from. I think that travel, acclimatisation and environmental issues must come in to it. I think that the time of day that games are played relative to both the local and foreign time zones play a big influence.

Presumably teams will be in NZ for a while before the crunch time occurs, and if I recall from the 2005 Lions tour, British supporters out number locals about 10 to 1, and in volume 1000 to 1.

TheGreyGhost wrote:British supporters out number locals about 10 to 1, and in volume 1000 to 1.

Are Kiwis really that quiet or Lions fans that loud?

Home advantage is more due to a team's mentaility, its sense of ownership and fan support than travel & acclimatisation issues. Home advantage is just as big a factor at club level, and you couldn't seriously claim travel & acclimatisation is a big issue for the 30 mile trip between Leicester & Northampton.

I would find it difficult to believe that AB support would be outnumbered. Don't know about the idea that Lions fans trumped AB fans in number in 2005, but if they did, given that was a pooling of 4 nations' supporters, the same situation shouldn't arise in the WC, particularly as I imagine the average Kiwi supporter would be more excited for the WC than the Lions, so there should be a bigger national turnout.

Home advantage won't hand you the game, but more often than not it gives you an extra edge and reserves to draw upon.

Grey since the 1987 70-6 win over Italy we've lost one test out of 34- to France 23-20 in 1994 at an average win of 34-15, 4 tries to one. We also drew with SA same year.

I doubt theres a better ground record anywhere so when we hit quarters I believe that gives us an advantage under any circumstances.

i wish the blues could cash in on the home advantage of Eden Park like the ABs have ???

they did last week

You two will recall in the 80's the Auck team was in that situation (Harty, Trapp and Henry)

1984 through to 1990 odd was a ridiculous run of wins. Whole crowds used to literally move seats at half time to the other tryline to watch the tries at that end. 65 Ranfurly shield defences in a row? Never seen an era like it from any team before or since...

Thats insane...

Is there a site you can get the scores from- Ive tried. have to refer to my old almanacks and Ive a few missing...

taylorman
Just a sample of an Auckland team between 1984 and 1990:
15. Greg Cooper
14.Terry Wright
13.Joe Stanley
12.Bernie McCahill
11.JK
10,Foxy
9.david Kirk
8Zin Zan
7.Michael Jones
6.A.J.Whetton
5.Gary Whetton
4.Andy Haden
3.John Drake
2.Sean Fitzpatrick
1.Steve McDowell

Actually.Just about a good enough team to win a World Cup(with Eden Park home advantage) Winter saturday afternoons in the 80s were pretty special in Auckland....

There is an awful lot of loose talk about NZ and history,here and a lot of assumptions.IN 200 7 NZ`s worst two perfomances was in that horrible away strip.
After the Scottish game players were complaining they were sometimes passing to the Scottish team.
Now the History,only 3 sides have beaten NZ in a RWC,the teams Australia,SA,and France.Of these Australia have never been beaten in a RWC,BOKs its2-1 to them,France its 2-2.
The Home side has won only 2 out of 6 RWC,only 4 sides have won a RWC,
Only one NH side has won a RWC,no side losing a group match has won a RWC.NZ have never lost at the group stage the only side to do so.
So much for History,now the form book in TheoryALL the BIG 8 tier one sides will reach the knock out stages.
BUT this is a RWC knockout tournament,injuries,the weather,a Refs decision against you,or just missed Goal kicks and youron your way home.
RWCs are usually the only time tier 2 sides get to field full strength sides.
Now some assumptions judging by threads here,All the big 8 get through,NZ ,Australia,South Africa,England will all win there groups.
NZ will meet SA,and Australia will meet England in the Semis.
THAT seems to be the main theories NOT mine,in fact probably one,possibly two of the Big 8 won`t reach the knockout stages.
That SA,NZ,Australia,England will not win there group so all guess work about semis is up the spout.
Finally it is pretty pointless, if you are a fan thinking your side. is just there to make up the numbers.You have to think thry can win it.
At some point another side WILL win the RWC why not this one ?

emack2
When New zealanders talk about rugby history,it aint loose talk,its either in the records or it aint....

The other thing thats happening alan is the world cup is getting nearer and emotions are starting to kick in so at this point we are more likely to be looking for reasons to win rather than lose. Weve put up with more than our fair share of losing so there may be a lot of this next few weeks. Sad but true. Hopefully it doesnt always come across as arrogant but just as im gonna support the blues and saders due to a blind kind of faith same with the abs. Could we lose the world cup. Absolutely. Will we not win it. Possibly. Should we not win it. Absolutely not. We're good enough and are as ready as most. A change this year will be most welcome.

Alan and taylorman, you boys must have faith in the All Blacks, if you remember, I did an article about a year ago on 606, predicting an all Black win.

I took out all the emotion, took all the stats, looked at the form teams and I beleive the All Blacks are going to win.

I am not saying it will be easy or without controversy, but my gut tells me it is your time.

Hi ya biltong. Oddly itll be ur side that will prevent a final for us assuming we play scotland or argies in quarters. I too think we'll win it but its hard to ignore our slipups. Stagefright i think ill call it. As good as any.
Saw a weird article bout the saders likely to get support from the locals this weekend. Still some tensions around it seems? at a pinch the sxv final could be in my city at the caketin! That would be weird. Good luck to the stormers. Gonna be a cracker.

Taylorman wrote:Saw a weird article bout the saders likely to get support from the locals this weekend. Still some tensions around it seems?

Taylorman, yes there are and will always be Provincial rivalry in SA, ( it is alive and well)but I don't think that is the reason why.

There is a lot of support and respect under the rugby lovers community here back home for what the Crusaders have achieved this year.

In my opinion it is the stuff legends are made of.

Would be a great movie if they do win, as long as they get a rugby loving country to produce and direct it.

Great team laurie.that xv is THE best non test xv ive ever known by far. The shield matches 83 and 85 with canterbury amongst the best matches ive seen. Terry wright the speed merchant was great. Head to head better than this years crusaders. Lindsay harris from a bit earlier as well.great days.

Cant wait biltong. Even if we lose both will enjoy the final. A new never before champions gotta be good.
Then its the 3N. Some good stuff ahead

I don't think the NZRU would let Clint Eastwood direct it

Auckland Laurie I may not be a New Zealander[Anglo-Scot]but could probably tell you more about your Rugby history than many Kiwi`s.
The article[last one]was a summation of this thread so far,and was all factual I am as much a NZ fan as any born there.
Nz are the best team on the Planet by results overall but only third best at
RWC time.It is well known I do not like RWCs because of the obsessional nature of people who think only RWC smatter.
That every thing else does`nt matter.i go into this one with an open mind,
taking nothing for granted.There are to many ifs,buts,and maybes.
History in the case of NZ tells two different things,they rarely lose at home,that certain grounds they are near invincible.Like Port Elizabeth was for the Boks versus Touring NZ sides.
The other side of the coin says NZ doesn`t win many RWC`s.Don`t get me wrong I would love to see them win this one.BUT I do not take it for granted
that they will win .
too often in the past have they looked the business then fallen at the second last or last hurdle.

Frankly I'm sickened by some of the talk from certain camps suggesting that referees will have a hard time making critical calls against the ABs that could see them eliminated on the basis of the "emotional impact of the CHCH disaster", and that this might lead to unfair pro-AB bias from some weaker referees.

It seems to be that this approach is obvious politics to try to persuade referees that in order to be seen as "fair" and "strong" that they should make close calls against the ABs in such circumstances.

Normally this kind of subtle mind game is just part and parcel of the modern professional game, but in this context it's cheapening what was a tragedy involving real life changing trauma and multiple deaths. To take such a line is cheap and ugly in my mind, and the IRB should jump on it.

taylorman
When I put together that Auckland 15,i considered three fullbacks,but chose Cooper because he was a test Fullback.
i agree Lindsay Harris was utterly gifted as a player,but he was never capped as an AB (that I can remember) perhaps it had something to do with drikin and smokin..??
the other one I considered was Matthew Ridge but I couldnt remember him playing a test...

Ridgy wasn't in the same category as those guys as an AB and left too early for Manly to prove his abilities.

Greg Cooper was the tall reliable Otago fullback wih the big boot but I never consideredhim in the same class.

Harris was originally Aucks first five late 70's then had a break only to come back as a fantastic fullback, fitting the Auckland running mode perfectly. You're right, he had his discipline moments but sorted that with his renaissance early 80's. One of the best players never to be an All Black. Same with loosies Glen Rich from Suburbs and Richard Turner (currently on Sky) later at North Harbour. Don't believe either got caps but they deserved it I reckon.

Gotta pump for my Oats man Richard Dunn who was a 80's regular with Auckland too but not in Kirks class I have to admit.

Alan I have to admit you're certainly the most unique AB supporter I have known which is why I tread carefully with your comments. You have a vast knowledge of the game and in particular the history of the AB's.

Here we get wrapped up in all the emotion and with this years world cup it will be all around us. Living as a Kiwi AB supporter in NZ over the last 30-40 years gives you a different view on tings and although we don't all take in interest in keeping up to date with the stats, results etc in a way that they can be recalled at any given notice we do have a good 'street' knowledge of the game that doesn't appear on tv, in papers, websites etc.

We've played it, supported it through our own school, club and for those of us lucky enough representative and higher honours.

When Kiwis get around tv's in pubs and clubs we always expect to win, reason being cos we generally do. The discussions and cheering that goes on is generally around winning, positive analysis of what we're doing right and wrong etc and for that reason I think we genuinely know more about the winning game of rugby than fans and supporters of other countries- as a general statement.

I think it was Martin Johnson when touring here who said the average lady at the local butchers had a better understanding of the finer points of the game than most people he had known.

Not taking away anything your knowledge of the game but living through it as a player, spectator, obsessed fan, commentator gives you a different view on things- a little less calculating and more passionate, which is probably why you see these wild statements.

Have you ever been to NZ? I'd hoped you'd have been able to come out for this world cup and I'd sure have put out the mat for you and shown you around. Its also a great place to live so if you're ever thinking of retiring somewhere else try coming out here. winters probably arent as cold and at least theyre full of rugby.

In any case, hope to continue extracting youre thoughts over the next few months. I think I look for yours, biltongs, Kia's comments more than mostas they usually contain some genuine thinking. Good to see my mate Lauries on board too. True Auk supporter....and on that note...

Go the Blues tonight!

Good stuff Taylorman. I hope that the majority of locals people run into in NZ during the WC are like yourself and most other Kiwis on here and not the idiots who'll sully the country's name.

One of my faves in 87 was getting out and meeting the visiting fans.

Rugby certainly has a way of bringing people together. Never forget an afternoon in a local pub I spent with a group of ridiculously loud and funny Welsh supporters watching a pool game from their group. Can still remember their faces and that was 24 years ago!

If Ireland were to win I'll be at Molly's on Courtney place celebrating it with them...thats a promise!

Thank you for your comments Taylorman,at my advanced age finaces won`t allow me to travel there much as i`d like to.I have been passionate about Rugby in NZ since 1953,and I had friends both here and NZ when we discussed it.
The saddest things for me was the cessation of tours,and the withdrawel of the Boks after the 1981-2 tour.The RWC is apoor substitute but anything is better than nothing.
My ardor has waxed and waned over the years,I have NZ Almanacks from 1945-1991 inclusive,and over a 100 books on Rugby including Tour,Bioghaphies,coaching manuals.
There were periods when I only took passing interest in sport in general and Rugby from about 1999-2003.Due to ill health,personal family problems and others.
My renaissance recurred on a couple Bok work mates who I could discuss it with and my purchase of a Pc.I had a lot of chats with freeserve customers during the 2003 RWC,and a vigerous discussion on All Black poaching players.
Like every one else i am gutted when teams I support lose,but since i only really follow test Matches now.That does`nt happen very often.
Thirty one times since 1996 to be precise,it would be nice to see the All Blacks win a RWC again to get the monkey off there back.
In much the same way that Irish supporters wanted a second grand slam to prove they could do it.
Here`s hoping they do it this year,at my age it`s one day at a time I may not be arround come 2015.

Emack2
Are you sure you havent got a Kiwi Grandmother?
you can be on our team anytime.........

Thank yo both Gentlemen,go BLUES and CRUSADERS

Yes pc's give you a bit more mobility in a sense don't they.

What I love about the world cup that's unique is all the worlds best players and many of their fans travel to one destination and for several weeks immerse themselves in rugby.

Its especially great in a small country like ours- locked in by water for a 1000 miles in any direction, and not a lot of 'other' things going on like you get in Europe or even Australia.

We get spoilt for a few weeks with most cities and towns hosting the players, visitors, matches and the like, culminating in the final at the end. The tries, matches, stories, controversies that will come flooding out of this event will be all the more worth being even a little part of it.

And you'll be around in 2015 Alan, bet ya. Might even be up there watching us win it with ya!

emack2

If anyone from the IRB asks for confirmation,tell them your granmother was born in Waikikumukau.
Maori for 'why kick a moo cow"...
youre now a Kiwi...

aucklandlaurie wrote: emack2

If anyone from the IRB asks for confirmation,tell them your granmother was born in Waikikumukau.
Maori for 'why kick a moo cow"...
youre now a Kiwi...

And if anyone quibbles, she moved there from Kaupate

Isnt that where Flutey was from...thought it was familiar...

thats the way boys- we'll look after ya Alan...

On the Saders and Blues matches (pity Nonu couldnt start...tomorrow!)

see theyre not starting Aplon...very defensive minded they are indeed.
One of the best attacking backs Ive seen coming out of SA recently. They've mentioned they 'could bring him on if they need to attack'

Doesnt quite work that way in SA does it? I mean if the defence thing works, then they keep the status quo. If it doesnt, then it means they'll be behind on points and SA teams generally tend to dig in deeper defensively and grind their way back than change to all out attack.

Personally I think hes a must for Stormers and SA in that he breaks up the predominantly defensive pattern with infrequent attacks in the same way Habana does (or used to). Having an element that can suddenly burst the game open has the effect of keeping the opposition team guessing.

Going completely defensive suggests a little bit of a panic and being predictable might not help against the Saders who are obviously going to expose what they can.

What do you think about that one Kiwi's (Alan and Biltong included...oops sorry Biltong...)

I think Crusaders need to strike early,and be more accurate than last week.DC kicks a lot more these days Hopefully Richie will get straight back in the groove.
I reckon Stormers will be happy to take them in 3`s.

Yes, early's definitely the key. That wont be easy against this team as they'll defend till the cows come home meaning SBW and Guilford through midfield with some hangers on will be crucial.

The longer it goes on with 3's the worse it will get for the Saders...absolutely agree there.

Taylorman here is the team for Saturday.

Team: 15 Conrad Jantjes, 14 Gio Aplon, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Peter Grant, 9 Dewaldt Duvenage, 8 Nick Koster, 7 Francois Louw, 6 Schalk Burger (C), 5 Andries Bekker, 4 Rynhardt Elstadt, 3 Brok Harris, 2 Tiaan Liebenberg, 1 Wicus Blaauw.
Replacements: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 Steven Kitshoff, 18 Anton van Zyl, 19 Schalk Brits, 20 Louis Schreuder, 21 Juan de Jongh, 22 Johann Sadie.


The original idea from what Allistair Coetzee was contemplating was to move Jean de Villiers onto the wing and Juan du Jongh into inside center as he would be more unpredictable than Jean de Villiers, the idea of having Conrad Jnatjies at fullback was because the Stormers coaching staff feels the Crusaders have kicked significantly more this season and played for territory woth the boot.

Hence Conrad Jantjies is a skilled kicker and they neede him there.

But as you can see they left Jean de Villiers at center and put Gio on the wing.

As far as defensive rugby, well that is our style, but with Juan du Jongh and Schalk Brits on the bench, both great playmakers and ball carriers, you could expect the game to open up when necessary.

Biltong what do you think about these shenanigans with Schalk Brits?

It's a tough one to pick as the Saders have even more travel under their belt, but save Dagg they're pretty much full strength. So maybe one cancels the other out. Glad the Stormers kept the Bok midfield intact though. Will again be a great tussle with SBW and Freuan.

Carter is there though and that's huge. Looking for a big game from him this weekend. He needs to take on the line, for his own confidence and also to draw defenders away from SBW which will make room for support runners.

For Blues it is a match to far Reds now at full strength no Toeva and Boric,weakened Lineout.
Crusaders have started with Crockett in the Front row,and Ben Franks off the bench.So expecting a real battle up front both sides have solid defences.
Crusaders will need to commit more players to the breakdown than last week.Also clear ball from the scrum quicker,this play off time simple is better
than flash.
Lineout and rolling maul defence will be crucial,Blackadder must be confident to leave Chris Jack in the stands. Not many Get steals from Matfield but Jack did.

Yeah i think saders wiil definitely have more at the breakdown and simply have to prove they are the better team. Theyve travelled over 84000 km this year so a few more wont matter.
For the blues i think they know what is needed. Last few years their 10s have been abysmal. Brett is in that mould so the backs may again let this team down if they lose. The pack is a better one than the reds even without boric so no probs there. As u say no toeava. But if brett and mcalister click this time. Game over. If they dont. Same.
On another note if the miracle happens and its a home nz final i wouldnt put it past saders to play it at nzs home of rugby. Eden park. Bigger crowd and more revenue for them. And what a result if they won. A superxv title played compleyely away. Including a final in the opposition back yard as their home ground. Historic would be an understatement.
But for now. Mustnt get too carried away.
Good luck to all 4 teams. All a credit to this great game.

Good thing about the blues is next year they have anscombe. He is the type of 10 blues have long been missing. Will be the 2015 wcup 10 i reckon. Nonus experience will help.

Anscombe,Bleyendale,Sopanga,Kirkpatrick,Cruden,Slade HAVE to step up to the plate.ALL the rest bar Dan Carter and Tony Brown have taken the money and run.

Of course the AB's will win the next world cup at home, because if they don't the entire population of NZ will head for the nearest cliffs, like a horde of lemmings, so a loss isn't on the cards! Is it?

It's always on the cards. The difference is that for most teams its expected.

englishwarrior
Dont discount the possibity of the nearest cliff heading for NZ population, we had an earthquake in Auckland last week!!!!!!!!!!!!

disneychilly wrote:Biltong what do you think about these shenanigans with Schalk Brits?

Well disney, when he came on it was too late to make any impression. what was really surprising to me was how poor the Stormers were at the breakdown.