It's a long road for Nadal

Rafael Nadal in his peak years has now lost five on the trot to Novak Djokovic.

He's lost 8 of their last 10 matches.

He's only managed to win 3 sets out of 14 played this year.

I fear that his (initially) slim chance of overhauling Roger Federer as the greatest grand slam champion of them all has now become near impossible. Nadal would need to win 2 of the next 4 slams to stay abreast of the pace set by Federer, who at 26 years and 1 month held 12 slams.

His chances of defending his USO title look precarious, with Djokovic, Fed, Murray, Del Potro all in the hunt.

Do you believe Nadal can still do it?

Personally, I think, when all is said and done, he may get 12-13 slams.

I always thought that Nadal's chances of retaining the USO title were pretty slim as it is. Now to add to that, I had thought Nadal would stand a good chance of retaining Wimbledon but once Djokovic got to the final, I thought Djokovic would be slight favourite but as we just saw in that match, Nadal had no answers & was again dominated by Djokovic.

I can't see him overhauling Fed's haul now unless he comes up with some answers soon. The USO offers him a great come back opportunity but....I've mentioned before, his post Wimbledon record is pretty bad over his entire career, he's got a lot to do, that's all I'll say. I disagree slightly one point, had Nadal won today, I think he would have stood a good chance of beating Fed's haul @ some point but now....unlikely, incredibly unlikely.

But you forgetting after the USO last year, Nadal himself looks like winning it all this year so you never know what will happen. I for one will sit back and enjoy the tennis and what Djokovic is doing. Like any Nadal fan, I was disappointed with his performance but that's behind now as there is too much tennis ahead to enjoy.

Agreed Luciusman,

WRT your last point, I felt his chances were slim even if he had had won today, simply because the closer you get to the record, the harder it gets.
Even if he had had won today, he would still have needed 6 more in order to break the record - that was always gonna be a tall order.

Well said Simple_Analyst, this makes for a fascinating USO.

True SA, the only thing I'd say is that Nadal had a great motivation to go for the USO last year (to complete his set) and he went for it and he did a good job in winning it. Will that apply as much this year with the threat from Djokovic? He has an opportunity to draw a line with his head to head against Djokovic, will be interesting to see how it goes.

And as mentioned, Nadal can really thank Federer for taking Djoko out at the FO, cause Djoko would have won that one easily v Nadal with those new Babolat balls.

Clearly being beaten so convincingly at the peak of his form is a real blow for Nadal.

We could look at slams across the years and say what if so and so took out so and so. e.g. Goran could thank Federer for taking out Sampras in 2001. Similarly Federer can thank Soderling in 2009 for taking out Nadal.
Whats the point of these comments. The players beat who they have to beat to lift the trophy. We can never predict how draws work out.

Nadal will probably level out at around 12 slams - which assures his place in tennis legend (as does his current record). I dont think Nadal will be sleeping too difficultly. Sure the losses will motivate him more, although whether he can meet the new challenge remains to be seen. But he's rich beyond wildest dreams, will probably go on to be the best clay player ever (already is for many people) and has won all slams, DC and Olympics as well as having won the most Masters. I dont think he has anything to be ashamed of or worried about. I really dont think Nadal will be too unhappy with what he has achieved even if he retired tomorrow - he's always come across as being happy with whatever he can achieve, not what he hasnt achieved.

We could look at slams across the years and say what if so and so took out so and so. e.g. Goran could thank Federer for taking out Sampras in 2001. Similarly Federer can thank Soderling in 2009 for taking out Nadal.
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Disagree. Between Goran and Sampras the matches were close, even if Pete won more than Goran. Goran did beat Sampras first time they met at Wimbledon.

Nadal is not close of beating Djoko at the moment and that is the big problem for Nadal.

Even when Federer was losing to Nadal, it was very very close and Federer essentially lost cause physically he had trouble staying with Nadal for 5 sets. Never was he beaten 5 times in a row so convingly and getting more convincingly the more they play.

It's very much like the Hewitt Federer H2H. Once Federer got physically fit enough, there was nowhere to hide for Hewitt. Same for Nadal here. His 1D game is simply exposed.

Yeah whatever Tenez...we all know you'll be on Cloud 9 tonight, or any night Nadal loses a match.
Nadal's record and legend is intact whatever protestations you care to make.
The point is the players beat who they have to in the draw to win trophies - ifs, buts and maybes are a waste of time.

Tenez I think you are being harsh. Djoko is a tough matchup for Nadal, like Nadal is a tough matchup for federer. That is the nature of the game, no one has been exposed. Nadal is a great champion who has a nightmare matchup with Djoko 2011, just like Fed has a nightmare matchup against Nadal for whatever reason. It doesn't take away from the rest of what they have accomplished because another great player had their number for a while.

It really does show that when Nadal is under immense pressure, his FH tends to go wayward and this year for me he has had no confidence in his BH. Djokovic has exposed that weakness and Federer no doubt will look to expose it if they meet again. Nadal's slice today was poor and got the length all wrong. He really needs to tighten up his game.

Djokovic and Federer will no doubt be the main threats to Nadal this coming Hardcourt season.

Murray and Del Potro on the other hand need to find some form and consistency. Del Potro it is different given his injury, but Murray needs just to tweek some areas.

lydian wrote:
Nadal will probably level out at around 12 slams

Well that's a safe bet, he has already 10 slams and he's not going to meet Djoko every time

Nadal lost in a slam final to a better player, not in the first round of a challenger.

He did win six matches @W, Nole won seven.

Absolutely fantastic from Nole so far this year. Would like to see him take on the 82-3 McEnroe season.

Write Rafa, Federer off @ your own peril. Tenacious players they are to have the slam counts that they have.

Indeed Laverfan, for a so-called "1-dimensional" player his record this year reads - S, QF, F, F, W, W, F, F, W, QF, F. I know most players would kill for a record like that at the highest level.

Indeed galleryplay, point being that even at a conservative 12 slams his legend is assured and he will sleep easy. He has never put himself into the GOAT debate.

luciusmann wrote:I disagree slightly one point, had Nadal won today, I think he would have stood a good chance of beating Fed's haul @ some point but now....unlikely, incredibly unlikely.

Christ Almighty, talk about an overreaction. If he'd have won he'd have had a 'good chance' of overhauling Federer, but now on the basis of ONE defeat it's 'incredibly unlikely?'

Nadal's chances of surpassing Federer's record of Grand Slams remain more or less the same, regardless of whether he'd won or lost today. He's still well in the hunt for the record, just not QUITE as much as he would have been had he been able to hang on to the Wimbledon title. Back-to-back French Open and Wimbledon finals yet again, as well as an overall 10-3 record in Slam finals, suggests that one loss is hardly a monumental spanner in the works on that front.

A worst, Nadal is the second favourite to win the US Open. I would be amazed if he didn't triumph at least twice more at the French Open before he retires, and I'd be equally surprised if he didn't regain the world number one ranking some time in 2012. People are acting as if he's on a terminal slide - he isn't. Djokovic is deservedly the top man right now, but it's unrealistic to expect that his form from the first half of 2011 is going to continue forever. I'm totally convinced that, in another twelve to eighteen months time, Nadal will have picked up at least another two Slams and will have, at one point ot another, regained the top ranking, even if it's not for all that long.

88chris05, you're significantly downplaying the importance of today's victory, as many Nadal fans are likely to do. If I re-hash what I heard, it was along the lines of, Djokovic can't win because:

a) it's the best of 5 sets, he can't beat Rafa over 5
b) it's in a grand slam, and his head to head on that says it alll, Djokovic has no chance
c) it's on grass and grass is Djokovic's weaker surface, he doesn't look comfortable on it

All silenced by today's performance. As if it's terminal? Chirs, it is terminal, Nadal has been beaten on EVERY surface by Djokovic now and all in finals and all this year. This is a comprehensive demolition job of Nadal by Djokovic this year. If that isn't terminal, I don't know what is and these losses are getting worse for Nadal. The implications of this defeat are massive.

Best to remember that after the French Open, Nadal's best record @ the next slam was @ Wimbledon, that's now over. His record @ the Australian and the USO isn't as good. Besides that, hard court is Djokovic's favoured surface, not grass or clay (which is where he has beaten Nadal so far this year). if he meets Djokovic @ the French Open there is no chance Nadal is going to win another 2 French Opens, not based on what we've seen so far from Nadal's performances against Djokovic.

I have no agenda socal and I've said whoever won today would deserve to win, however, my analysis on this and what would happen over the semi finals and finals was pretty good and despite most people plumping for Nadal, I didn't, and I don't claim to be a rabid Nole fan, I just said the mental edge would get the better of Nadal and he said it himself today actually.

Good post by Chris, have to agree again. People saying that Nadal has been exposed are really not looking at it rationally or they have an agenda. What will be interesting is that Nadal will now have to look and learn different ways to win against Novak. I think this will be another great challenge for him. But this doesn't diminish his stature or legacy. He lost in a grandslam final to the in form guy. I think Novak is a strong contender for the USO as well.

Very interesting points Lucius. You know its very hard for Nadal to change his game after years of honing a formula for victory. When I predicted as you did that Djokovic would win this match, I felt that people weren't attaching enough significance to the 4 match win streak. Novak is that nightmare matchup for Nadal, it just took Novak a few years of maturity and hard work to get there. How Novak was hammering his backhand and actually winning numerous exchanges with Rafa's forehand its like watching superman exposed to kryptonite. This loss is a sea changing loss, one of those loses that have reverberations for months and even years to come.

I agree, Nadal's stature is not diminished in my eyes at all, I was actually shocked to see someone get the better of Nadal in a grand slam final today, I still don't believe it, nor the fact that Djokovic did it pretty convincingly too.

As a Nadal fan, I think he'll quit after the US Open if he falls to Djokovic again.

Nadal has nothing to prove to anyone.

10 Majors, $45m - what more could anyone else want?

I for one can't see how Federer will win another slam, they don't award them by fan votes.
Luciusmann, Djokovic proved us wrong so what makes you think Nadal can't prove you wrong?

Well SA, I think Fed could get lucky (a good draw with some surprises) and win one but I agree, I can't see him winning many if any, not when he's a step slower than Djokovic and losing to the Tsongas of the tennis world (no disrespect intended).

Djokovic didn't prove me wrong and I hope Nadal can up his game because I would personally prefer closer finals than the one we just witnessed with both players (not just one) playing great tennis

MM, I doubt it, why would Nadal retire. And you are right he has nothing else to prove. But I can't see him retiring if he loses another grandslam final to Novak. Too much advertising money, he is just entering his biggest marketability period I don't think he will throw it away. Plus he is a competitor and still young, he just has to adapt a new game plan for Novak.

socal1976 wrote:MM, I doubt it, why would Nadal retire. And you are right he has nothing else to prove. But I can't see him retiring if he loses another grandslam final to Novak. Too much advertising money, he is just entering his biggest marketability period I don't think he will throw it away. Plus he is a competitor and still young, he just has to adapt a new game plan for Novak.

I think Nadal is like Borg, if he can't win - no point in playing.

Money isn't motivation for Nadal IMO.

If Nadal loses consistently it might make him wonder, no amount of money will compensate for being consistently beaten (if that's what happens -this is only one year so far), it depends how much his motivation is dented.

Oh Dear - Nadal LOST a tennis match


His career is now dead in the water and he will fade out of the
rankings over the next 3 years !

NNN OOO TTTT

I hope it's not yummy, he's still a great player, remember, only Djokovic has got the better of him consistently, he has to find out a way of turning that around.

Tenez wrote:We could look at slams across the years and say what if so and so took out so and so. e.g. Goran could thank Federer for taking out Sampras in 2001. Similarly Federer can thank Soderling in 2009 for taking out Nadal.
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Even when Federer was losing to Nadal, it was very very close and Federer essentially lost cause physically he had trouble staying with Nadal for 5 sets. Never was he beaten 5 times in a row so convingly and getting more convincingly the more they play.

2009 Australian Open
Australia Hard F Nadal, Rafael
7-5, 3-6, 7-6(3), 3-6, 6-2 Stats

2008 Wimbledon
Great Britain Grass F Nadal, Rafael
6-4, 6-4, 6-7(5), 6-7(8), 9-7 Stats

2008 Roland Garros
France Clay F Nadal, Rafael
6-1, 6-3, 6-0 Stats

2008 ATP Masters Series Hamburg
Germany Clay F Nadal, Rafael
7-5, 6-7(3), 6-3 Stats

2008 ATP Masters Series Monte Carlo
Monaco Clay F Nadal, Rafael
7-5, 7-5 Stats

There's five in a row which are fairly comparable to the current Nole-Rafa situation. Although the last two matches in the sequence did get closer so technically you were right about that bit. Although that's a pretty minor detail considering the point you just tried to make failed spectacularly by also describing all the loses as "very, very close"

Nadal had a Murrayesque finale.

He was being stubborn, refusing to get in at the net, wanting to be Mr Macho Man from the baseline, when Novak could return anything, consistently daring Nadal to go for winners (and we all know his winners tally is never usually great when up against solid defense).

Why didn't Nadal go near the lines? why not shorten the points at the net?

That's ok simple,

Fed already has 16.

To quote Martina Navratilova when asked about Federer vis-a-vis the GOAT debate:


"It's a combination of how many grand slams have you won, how many tournaments have you won, how many years you were number one and he's got all those combinations, The body of work is phenomenal and now he has got that French Open and I think he can just go on and sip Margaritas for the rest of his life."

That was before he added a further two slams.



Consigliare,

all of the matches that you just quoted, bar one, were in fact very close, decided by a few points here and there.

88Chris05 wrote:

luciusmann wrote:I disagree slightly one point, had Nadal won today, I think he would have stood a good chance of beating Fed's haul @ some point but now....unlikely, incredibly unlikely.

Christ Almighty, talk about an overreaction. If he'd have won he'd have had a 'good chance' of overhauling Federer, but now on the basis of ONE defeat it's 'incredibly unlikely?'

Nadal's chances of surpassing Federer's record of Grand Slams remain more or less the same, regardless of whether he'd won or lost today. He's still well in the hunt for the record, just not QUITE as much as he would have been had he been able to hang on to the Wimbledon title. Back-to-back French Open and Wimbledon finals yet again, as well as an overall 10-3 record in Slam finals, suggests that one loss is hardly a monumental spanner in the works on that front.

A worst, Nadal is the second favourite to win the US Open. I would be amazed if he didn't triumph at least twice more at the French Open before he retires, and I'd be equally surprised if he didn't regain the world number one ranking some time in 2012. People are acting as if he's on a terminal slide - he isn't. Djokovic is deservedly the top man right now, but it's unrealistic to expect that his form from the first half of 2011 is going to continue forever. I'm totally convinced that, in another twelve to eighteen months time, Nadal will have picked up at least another two Slams and will have, at one point ot another, regained the top ranking, even if it's not for all that long.

Respectfully disagree Chris,

Winning multiple slams has always been incredibly difficult. What Federer did was unprecedented - at one point he won 11 slams in the space of four years. He won all sixteen in seven and a half years.

In comparison, Sampras took 13 years to win his 14. The last slam came after a two year drought.

Nadal has taken 6 years already to win his 10. Nadal may be 25, but he has a lot of miles on his leg. There have been very few multiple slam winners beyond the age of 28/29. The window for maintaining the consistently high level required to win more than a slam a year is very small. Rafa would need to win 2 slams a year for the next three years to even draw level with Roger.

More importantly, fans who follow the sport all year round, including all the smaller tournaments, can see that Rafa has a huge matchup problem against Novak. Ultimately, being a lefty gave Rafa a matchup advantage over the majority of the tour. However, there are now players who are tall enough, with solid DHBH's who can negate Rafa's topspin FH, and therefore negate the inherent advantage that Rafa used to enjoy.

Lastly, Rafa plays a very physical game, whereby he usually grinds his opponents into submission. It is pretty clear that Rafa is not as explosive off the ground with his footspeed as he used to be (just watch some videos from 05-08, to see how fast he used to be). Therefore, he is finding it increasingly difficult to get to the ball in time; whereas in the past he would get to the ball and play a telling deep response, now he is often making errors or sending the ball back short. This means that big hitters can hit through him more easily than previously and penetrate his defense.

With time Rafa will slow down even more.

The same has happened, to a lesser extent with Fed, however, Fed can play the game in many different ways and so is less reliant on his physicality and movement.

Things can turn around very quickly in tennis and the last few years have given us plenty of reasons to believe that.

Simple_Analyst wrote:I for one can't see how Federer will win another slam, they don't award them by fan votes.
Luciusmann, Djokovic proved us wrong so what makes you think Nadal can't prove you wrong?

SA.. what makes you think Federer can't prove you wrong?

noleisthebest wrote:Things can turn around very quickly in tennis and the last few years have given us plenty of reasons to believe that.

This is right - no one would have predicted Djokovic looking unbeatable a year ago.

Emanciptor, that's a very good post.
"It's not the years, honey, it's the mileage"
That's a quote, by the way, just in case you think I'm being overly familiar with you.

Thanks Julius,

The quotation marks gave it away

emancipator wrote:Thanks Julius,

The quotation marks gave it away

Those things? I just threw them in for effect, honey.

Now I am getting worried.

consigliare wrote:

Tenez wrote:We could look at slams across the years and say what if so and so took out so and so. e.g. Goran could thank Federer for taking out Sampras in 2001. Similarly Federer can thank Soderling in 2009 for taking out Nadal.
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Even when Federer was losing to Nadal, it was very very close and Federer essentially lost cause physically he had trouble staying with Nadal for 5 sets. Never was he beaten 5 times in a row so convingly and getting more convincingly the more they play.

2009 Australian Open
Australia Hard F Nadal, Rafael
7-5, 3-6, 7-6(3), 3-6, 6-2 Stats

2008 Wimbledon
Great Britain Grass F Nadal, Rafael
6-4, 6-4, 6-7(5), 6-7(8), 9-7 Stats

2008 Roland Garros
France Clay F Nadal, Rafael
6-1, 6-3, 6-0 Stats

2008 ATP Masters Series Hamburg
Germany Clay F Nadal, Rafael
7-5, 6-7(3), 6-3 Stats

2008 ATP Masters Series Monte Carlo
Monaco Clay F Nadal, Rafael
7-5, 7-5 Stats

There's five in a row which are fairly comparable to the current Nole-Rafa situation. Although the last two matches in the sequence did get closer so technically you were right about that bit. Although that's a pretty minor detail considering the point you just tried to make failed spectacularly by also describing all the loses as "very, very close"

As I sid those matchs were very close despite Federer having mono that year.

Nadal has lost 5 times and the last 3 were not close at all! Tht's the difference!

Tenez your conclusion is unwarranted...Lendl in all of 1981 and 1982 won all his games (7) against McEnroe losing only one set out of twenty!!Yet Mc Enroe
won 10 games of the next 12 they played.Similar stories with Chang and Sampras etc.There are many parameters to factor in predicting the future.And that is why predictions are inherently difficult. One thing is for sure.Djokovic has a phenomenal year.Will it last?We will see. For now Nadal has a winning record against both him and Federer.

Faust I agree with you on some of things you are saying I don't think anyone can logically count out a talent like Rafa Nadal with the champions will that he has. But 5 straight losses is a highly disturbing trend. It doesn't happen usually between two great champions who are the same age, especially in light of Rafa having completely dominated the matchup. Something monumental just happened, Novak has Rafa figured out.

Whatever but now king is finally dead. Fedal era probably over. Nadal didn't get to enjoy being top at long and has to be content with no.2 again. He holds the record for being no.2 for maximum weeks and will go on to consolidate.

Nole's win has come as a breath of fresh air similar to Kvitova's. Both these players possess more variety and looks like that many more slams to be won by both.

Nadal is still a force but hard court season will give us a better idea. He has played lots of tennis until now and he also has an injury to deal with. We do not know as when he will be back and in what shape.

Last time it was the duet with Shakira which resuscitated his career, it won't be a bad idea to contact her again.

I wouldn't write Rafael Nadal just yet by any means. Okay so he has lost the No.1 slot to Novak but I am pretty sure that won't hurt half as much as losing a slam final. If Rafa could stay at No.2 in the rankings winning five slams before his career ends or going back to No.1 and winning three more slams (hypothetically) I know which one he'd choose.

He'll need to go away now though and work out a strategy to combat Novak Djokovic or else he'll struggle more times than he'll win.

Wow but Nadal
Has been No.1 for 2 years, if that's not long I don't know what is. He will still get his chance again.
Djokovic is 48-1 this year and his victories over his rivals and especially Nadal has come within this short period of 6 months. Now to play at this level and be 48-1 again this time next year will be the challenge. Anything else and he'll lose points and confidence.

But can nadal overhaul fed's 248 weeks at top?

No, not a chance.

Write off Nadal at your peril but I am in the camp that thinks this win is more likely to give rise to a seizmic shift than not.

Djoko is going to take a lot from this win - if he stays fit it will surely make him more difficult to beat on all surfaces against all-comers.

Nadal himself said that at tough points in the match he could not help remembering his past defeats. Like Nadal vs. Fed, Djoko now has a go-to tactic vs. Nadal that puts all the pressure mentally and physically onto Nadal. That's a hugely tough thing for Nadal to deal with and Djoko is not going to be content with standing still either. Nadal's wobble in the RG main draw before he regained his mojo shows how his repeated losses to Djoko were making everything a bit more difficult for him.

There are more players in the draw than Djoko - but unlike Djoko/Fed/Murray/del Potro Nadal has to force it a bit on the most prevalent surface of the tour - hard courts.

He's a great champion - he's reacted successfully to adversity during his career, but this time I think he has more to do than in the past.

This "burden of defending points" thing always confuses me. The extra points are because he's won a lot, because he's the best. And if you subscribe to this theory then the most vulnerable points are the ones coming up, and Nadal could easily be out of the top 2 after the USO on that basis.

As for "once" he gets over the challenges of Djokovic, that's sounds very presumptious.