Nadals best hope for beating Djokovic at a Slam

From what I've seen, Nadals best chances are now at the USO. This may seem absurd, but I think on the slower courts at RG and Wimbledon he has become impotent against Djokovics game. If you look at their matches in 2011, he came closest on the hard courts (although Miami is almost worthy of slow court status these days) and failed to get a set on clay. Wimbledon was quite decisive until Djokovic dropped his level, perhaps becoming aware of what he was doing.

Perhaps at the USO he has more chance of getting some value for his heavy hitting. I dunno, it may seem counter-intuitive but it makes more sense to me than trying to imagine Nadal taking 3 sets off Djokovic at RG, where absolutely everything is going to come back at him, into awkward places.

5-1 Nadal Djokovic slam head to head. Nadal is allowed to lose the next 4 to make it balanced.

Oh right, they're handing out Slams for h2hs now?

He's just being bitter and angry bogbrush, the Nadal fans were warned not to mock Federer's decline in slams as Rafa himself will have the same treatment (defensive style of play never lasts forever).

It's an interesting question. The problem is though that Djokovic is better on quicker hard courts anyway, so his shots are more penetrative and he will have to rely less on chasing everything down. I can see the point though that Rafa would also get more value for his shots, but I just don't see hm being able to overwhelm Djokovic v2011 on a hard court.

Rafa's best hope for a slam win in the near future is that Federer beats Djokovic in the SF, which seems to be the pre-set option of every slam draw.

In the longer term, Rafa needs to adjust his mindset against Djokovic, to accept that Novak is going to do to him what he has done to everyone else for the last 3 or 4 years - get a lot of balls back into awkward spots and make very few errors. There's no need for Rafa to panic about this (which he seemed to on occasion yesterday, looking for big shots when he'd usually just stay in the point), and on clay he should be able to do the same in response - he's as quick as Djokovic, has similar weight of shot and has never been found to want for physical fitness. The issues at the moment is that he is struggling to cope mentally with what Djokovic is doing to him, and he isn't getting enough depth consistently on his shots.

We know that Nadal is skipping the DC and that he is going to get another PRP treatment instead on his knee before the USO.

So I expect Nadal to be very fit again in a couple of months.

BB,

I understand your point, however, the faster HC's always favour the more offensive players.

Djokovic has a more offensive game than Nadal and historically fast HC's are probably his second best surface, after slow HC's.

I actually think the dymanic would stay pretty constant on the faster courts, except Nadal would have even less time to react.

His best chance at the USO if for Fed or possibly Del Po to take out the joker.

Tenez wrote:We know that Nadal is skipping the DC and that he is going to get another PRP treatment instead on his knee before the USO.

So I expect Nadal to be very fit again in a couple of months.

Do you have a link to this, i mean the prp treatment?

What would be the justification for it?

he's as quick as Djokovic, has similar weight of shot .... The issues at the moment is that he is struggling to cope mentally with what Djokovic is doing to him, and he isn't getting enough depth consistently on his shots..

Not at all I am afraid. Djoko's shots are flatter and that pushes Nadal in running faster from right to left whereas Nadal has loopy shots giving Djoko enough time to get to the ball. That is the key difference.

The quality of the FH and BH (But essentilly FHs) i sthe main difference between those 2. Djoko can take the ball earlier and flatten it. That's what Nadal is faced with. This is what all other players do too but the others can't do it for too long without being exhausted and lose their sharpness. Djoko is now fit enough to do it for 4 sets for sure.

Indeed emancipator, what I left out of the analysis was that Nadal is very unlikely to keep getting Federer into Djokovics half. This is key because Fed is the only player I can see able to give Nole a game right now.

He also needs to keep avoiding the players who love the USO, JMDP being an obvious example. I didn't say it would happen, I just thought it was more likely than taking him out on a slow court.

To dummy_half I would say that Rafa is not as fit as Nole; every match this year has seen Nadal start to wilt, indeed in the first two matches he went off like a train only to be dragged down.

5-0 baby!!

Something which will be interesting is what Fed will have learnt from yesterday's match. Federer can learn a lot from Djokovic and now with the dominating display only needs to pick a few things to win against Nadal himself, question is if he will do it successfully because as you said, it's unlikely we'll keep seeing Fed on Djokovic's side of the draw. I can imagine organisers @ the USO might want a very entertaining semi final with Nadal/Fed being on the same side, saving Djokovic for the final (if he gets there).

I'm not sure how Nadal can honestly beat Djokovic, he had the self belief of knowing he could beat Nadal (significant in itself) but now Djokovic will have the confidence and proof of it. I can see Djokovic playing even more aggressively against Nadal in the future. On top of the 4 losses to Djokovic earlier this year, yesterday had more the feel of the seismic loss of Federer to Nadal in Wimbledon 2008. I'm still waiting to see Fed beat Nadal @ a slam and it's never happened since.

bogbrush wrote:
To dummy_half I would say that Rafa is not as fit as Nole; every match this year has seen Nadal start to wilt, indeed in the first two matches he went off like a train only to be dragged down.

I would second that. Was it Miami were Nadal was left panting after some extended rallies? Not to mention Rome, where Nole looked fresher even after a grueling match with Murray the day before; I think he only had 17 hrs to recover.

emancipator wrote:

bogbrush wrote:
To dummy_half I would say that Rafa is not as fit as Nole; every match this year has seen Nadal start to wilt, indeed in the first two matches he went off like a train only to be dragged down.

I would second that. Was it Miami were Nadal was left panting after some extended rallies? Not to mention Rome, where Nole looked fresher even after a grueling match with Murray the day before; I think he only had 17 hrs to recover.

That match was ridiculous; having heard the whingeing from the Rafa fans about Hamburg and Madrid, it amused me to see Djokovic come out of that SECOND semi-final the day before having been taken to match point by Murray and with under 24 hours to recover, he ran him off the court.
Had Nadal played that match against Murray I'm quite sure the final would have been explained away in the same manner Federers wins were.

"Federer to Nadal in Wimbledon 2008. I'm still waiting to see Fed beat Nadal @ a slam and it's never happened since."

To be fair, they haven't actually met that often since then - AO final 2009 and RG2011 if my recollection is right. I don't think even the most ardent Federer fans gave him a good chance in the RG final, so it is only the one match that Federer would have started as favourite that he lost in 5.

It will be interesting whether the fairly comprehensive dismantling of Nadal's game by Djokovic will have an effect when Rafa is playing anyone else - it has to undermine your confidence a bit when someone takes essentially your game plan and just executes it better than you. The problem for everyone else is that they can't rely on doing the same as Djokovic did to win against Rafa, and usually have to be more aggressive, which means Rafa is more in his comfort zone.

No I disagree with their relative fitness. Nadal is still by far the fitter player. However he is not an energy efficient player. Nadal's BH and FH require much more energy than any other player including Djokovic. He takes the ball further back and therefore needs to cover the extra step and because he takes the ball later has to compensate with added energy to send the ball on the other side, especially when considering that a big part of that energy is used to spin the ball and not to pace the pace up the ball.

This is why after 3 sets I think Nadal is more likely to tire than Djoko. Djoko doesn;t need to be as fit as Nadal....though he is clearly the second fittest player out there now.

The interesting thing was the tactics of serving wide to the backhand was unanswered. That, and playing onto the backhand with loopy forehands was interesting, but it's Noles ability to provide Rafa with no easy "out" to the ad court that really messes things up for him.

Fed will always be vulnerable to that, but Murray should be able to handle it. His problem is that he's got an awful forehand...... I sat on Centre on Friday and watched it cost him the match....



Tenez - yes, it's not fitness is it, it's fitness to play his game.

Bogbrush, this is what I've been thinking about Murray and yet people are talking as though if he just 'maintains his concentration' over a longer period he can beat Nadal. His forehand isn't up to the job and it's connected to his style of play.

droogle wrote:Bogbrush, this is what I've been thinking about Murray and yet people are talking as though if he just 'maintains his concentration' over a longer period he can beat Nadal. His forehand isn't up to the job and it's connected to his style of play.

Would it really be so hard for Murray not to change his forehand technique a little bit?

It'll never work against the top 3 in slams.

It's kind of strange that Murray's backhand is so wonderful and it's his forehand that lets him down. Not too many top players you can say that about! Yes. Djoker's backhand is spectacular, but his forehand is very very good as well!

Tennisanorak wrote:It's kind of strange that Murray's backhand is so wonderful and it's his forehand that lets him down. Not too many top players you can say that about! Yes. Djoker's backhand is spectacular, but his forehand is very very good as well!

Well his loyal fans must be finding it hard to keep faith in him if he can't see how weak his forehand is compared to the other top guys

Nadal plays every forehand 'fully', every time he hits that shot he's experiencing the result of total bodily absorption in the action. Murray plays within himself unless he's forced to go for broke. . . I'm guessing his emphasis on guile was partially a result of feeling like he had to compensate for not having big weapons. But the fact that he's so unwilling to let rip on the forehand side means he doesn't get to experience himself playing that shot in a match situation, thus he's not acquiring that weapon. Whereas Nadal KNOWS his forehand inside out. I think Murray should have a couple of months where he does nothing but try and blast the opponent off court for the first set of every match.

Murray's forehand isn't a bad shot, but he does prefer to come round it and pull across court - this shot is world class because he can generate such an acute angle, but the variations (in to out, down the line) are not in the same class, and are things he has to continue to work on.

I think there are already some improvements (since working with Cahill), and the first set v Nadal was about the best I've seen him play the down the line forehand, but it is still a bit of a work in progress, and once it started to break down, Andy's confidence in it, and indeed the whole gameplan, faded (coinciding with Rafa's game improving as he was under less pressure).

droogle wrote:I think Murray should have a couple of months where he does nothing but try and blast the opponent off court for the first set of every match.

This x1000

Tennisanorak wrote:It's kind of strange that Murray's backhand is so wonderful and it's his forehand that lets him down. Not too many top players you can say that about! Yes. Djoker's backhand is spectacular, but his forehand is very very good as well!

Actually Murray's BH was not great either v Nadal in that semi either.

His FH was too predictable in Rafa's BH.

Definetly, not at the USO unless Djoko gets knocked out before hand. Yes he has lost a final to Rafa at 2010 US open but at that stage New Novak was still in his infancy. He was still battling struggles with his serve. Novak takes the ball earlier, is more aggressive on return, gets more free points off his serve, and goes up the lines better than Nadal. Nothing in it to suggest that the USO should be any kinder to Nadal. I actually think that at RG that is still Nadal's best chance.

socal1976 wrote:Definetly, not at the USO unless Djoko gets knocked out before hand. Yes he has lost a final to Rafa at 2010 US open but at that stage New Novak was still in his infancy. He was still battling struggles with his serve. Novak takes the ball earlier, is more aggressive on return, gets more free points off his serve, and goes up the lines better than Nadal. Nothing in it to suggest that the USO should be any kinder to Nadal. I actually think that at RG that is still Nadal's best chance.

Then God help him. Federer, who's never anywhere near his best on clay, pushed him close in his dotage.

Tenez wrote:We know that Nadal is skipping the DC and that he is going to get another PRP treatment instead on his knee before the USO.

Tenez, can you please provide the reference/source for this?

BB, agree actually. Nadal is quite an adept fast court player (Master Indoor title too). Its not out of fantasy that he's a better fast court player than Djokovic, who like Nadal was raised on clay. Infact I dont know what people think its a relevation that Nole played so well against Nadal on clay this year given tough clay matches in the past and as I say being brought up on the surface.

Lydian I disagree, I think Novak is clearly the best hardcourt player in the world right now. He has as many slams on hardcourt as Nadal has. He has two more finals appearances for 4 total final apperances, and he has I believe more master's on hardcourt than Nadal. And much of this was accomplished minus his serve which was in disarray for about 18 months. The USO in my mind is not a good place for Nadal to get Djoko. Nadal is a great player, I still feel like his best chances are on the natural surface slams particularly the french.

Tenez, can you please provide the reference/source for this?
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Why should he have to post a link for evidence?

Might just not be on the internet...

He doesnt have to JM, its just a question.

Maybe socal...it will be interesting to see the type of player Nadal will be when he turns up in Canada.