Who will be the biggest surprise at the RWC..?

I don't think many people predicted that Argentina would make the semi final, pre rugby world cup, in 2007. But who are most likely to become the surprise ticket this year?

Jonah Lomu tips Tonga,and Japan have just won there first Pacific Nations.
It is good for International Rugby that there are sometimes shocks it stops
complanecy.

assuming 'surprise' requires a minimum of qualifying...

Well if France rolls over to either japan or Samoa- both obviously playing well- in the NZ group then it could be either. Kirwan set a goal of last 8 for the 2015 Wcup from memory- he could be early if hes lucky...

Hopefully it doesnt mean France get to play their 3rd team against NZ but thats what will happen if they lose to one of these 2. <groan>

Samoa and to a lesser extent Fiji in Wales and SA group is the other likely the other pools being fairly set.

Scotland or Argie wouldnt be considered too great a surprise- either should get through with England there.

It will be a Pacific Island nation knocking out one of the top 6.

Okay, hardly Nostradamus-esque quality but it could be any of Samoa, Fiji or Tonga that have a purple patch lasting 80 minutes in a quarter final.

Somewhere someone will have to have a real bad day at the office.

Yes youre dead right there Biltong as its been us every time almost!

But with the sheer number of matches there will be plenty upsets during pool play- always happens. Looking at the draws youd think oh yup... theyll top it, theyll be second etc etc then .....helllloooooo! "Little ol' x just beat y. "

"Yeah...? Yooooooouuuurrre...........jooooookiiiinggg?" "Yup" 24-10.

"Well .....I....never.....!"

There'll be a few of these. Isnt it great.

I think Ireland could go all the way to the final, I am not sure if that is replicating Argentina's unexpected journey last time or England's.

Samoa played some nice rugby over the weekend, and I saw Tonga put nearly fifty points on Fiji and thought they were quite impressive.

I agree that Japan look in healthy form.

I think Wales could be the dark horses in these years tournement. They have a very talented squad with a good mix of youth and experience and reasonable depth too. They've been under achieving for a number of seasons and are going into the WC with pretty low expectations. However if they can produce a couple of good performances to restore some confidence then they are capable of really going on a run and if so then they'll be hard to beat.

Samoa and Tonga also look dangerous and Ireland certainly have the squad to do very well but have a very tough draw.

My biggest fear is that Arg and Scotland both decide to turn up and play rugby, but would it really be a surprise that these teams will raise their games against England????

BATH_BTGOG wrote:My biggest fear is that Arg and Scotland both decide to turn up and play rugby, but would it really be a surprise that these teams will raise their games against England????

Yes but it wouldn't be a surprise if all three teams raise their games because it's the WC. Any two from 3 could go through in that group but on current form England are favourites for sure. Anything could happen in that group though as all 3 are pretty evenly matched.

I suppose that if you believe the rankings, then Scotland progressing to the quarter finals would be an upset?

New Zealand will win it! That´ll come as a suprise.

kia kaha

roddersm wrote:Yes but it wouldn't be a surprise if all three teams raise their games because it's the WC.

To be fair most teams struggle at the WC, teams like Wales, Ireland & Scot are still waiting to have a good one!


But I agree the biggest shock would be NZ winning it and not choking AGAIN!!!

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:New Zealand will win it! That´ll come as a suprise.

kia kaha

really?

BATH_BTGOG wrote:

roddersm wrote:Yes but it wouldn't be a surprise if all three teams raise their games because it's the WC.

To be fair most teams struggle at the WC, teams like Wales, Ireland & Scot are still waiting to have a good one!


But I agree the biggest shock would be NZ winning it and not choking AGAIN!!!

Can't agree with that, BATH_BTGOG, I'm afraid - relative to our resources, one semi-final appearance and never having missed out on at least quarter finals is a decent effort from Scotland

Well according to the recent poll by 606v2, South Africa will be the biggest surprise if they manage to win it.

Stop living in the past!

From maestegmafia To BATH_BTGOG, Today at 9:52 am

Mate we would rather have a decent chat about the Rugby world cup and the teams that might do well rather than reading your little jibes and so on.

If you want to chat rugby, chat rugby. If all you want to do is post little put downs then please start your own thread.



Calm down mate its true, most big teams struggle at world cup time as the smaller nations raise there game, look at Georgia v Ireland in 2007 I'm confident that if Ireland were to have played them at any other time or venue then they would have scored 50-60-70-80 points.

roddersm wrote:I think Wales could be the dark horses in these years tournement. They have a very talented squad with a good mix of youth and experience and reasonable depth too. They've been under achieving for a number of seasons and are going into the WC with pretty low expectations. However if they can produce a couple of good performances to restore some confidence then they are capable of really going on a run and if so then they'll be hard to beat.

i agree. wales could be a surprise package for all the reasons listed above.

I agree Wales will be up there surprising us all with their new tried and tested style of rugby which they will unleash in the world cup warm up games.

I think everyone is forgetting about Italy. After beating France in the 6 nations and being so close to taking down Ireland they could do some damage in their pool.

I actually wouldn't underestimate Georgia either. They have a big pack and I actually fancy them taking down Argentina or Scotland.

Scotland and Argentina don't have the firepower in the backline to take down England in my opinion.

I wish I had your confidence Beshocked, I can see England having a battle with the Scots 3-5 points either way.

BATH_BTGOG wrote:I agree Wales will be up there surprising us all with their new tried and tested style of rugby which they will unleash in the world cup warm up games.

I think most Welsh fans would acknowledge how dire they have been at times recently. However they've pushed the SH teams pretty close consistantly without getting a result and have had a pretty bad run with injuries.

On paper their squad is as strong as any in the NH. Henson, Shane Williams, Hook, Philips, Stephen Jones, Martyn Williams, Alwyn Jones, Gethin Jenkins, Roberts, Byrne, Peel, Ryan Jones, Adam Jones etc. are all Lions and have shown themselves to be world class players at one time or another. Throw talented young players like Warburton, Davies and North into the mix along with a solid set piece and you have a real chance of beating anyone.

I'm not saying Wales will go well, in fact they could well go out in the groups if they continue with the window wiper rugby, but they certainly have the talent and potential too.

beshocked wrote:I think everyone is forgetting about Italy. After beating France in the 6 nations and being so close to taking down Ireland they could do some damage in their pool.

I actually wouldn't underestimate Georgia either. They have a big pack and I actually fancy them taking down Argentina or Scotland.

Scotland and Argentina don't have the firepower in the backline to take down England in my opinion.

beshocked, I think the Scottish and Argentine packs will be at least a match for the Georgian one - their breakdown skills will edge it imo, and Scotland's lineout should comfortable dominate (note, "should"!). You are right about backline weaknesses Sco/Arg vs Eng in theory, but theory hasn't always prevailed before!

Glad you call it confidence bath_btgog I am sure a lot of people will call it arrogance!

I certainly won't be taking the Scots lightly. They have taken down South Africa and Australia after all but that was at home.

The Scots and Argentina will in my opinion try to drag us into an arm wrestle if it is indeed that then yes it can go either way but if we can break down the Scottish and Argentinian defences with good quick ball and attacking prowess we will win with ease.

Basically do what we did vs Australia,Wales and Italy. Not what happened vs Scotland,France,Ireland,South Africa and New Zealand!

beshocked wrote:
Scotland and Argentina don't have the firepower in the backline to take down England in my opinion.

I think both certainly have the firepower too take England down particularly in the backrow. I would be very surprised if England were beaten by both but would not be surprised if they lost to either.

roddersm I agree the Scots have the edge in the backrow. Not sure about the Argie backrow.

I would say the backrow is the only area we have to worry about. It could be a big worry though as the breakdown is key for quick ball.

i will watch the italy games closely.

what am i talking about, i'm going to watch every game!!!!!

beshocked wrote:roddersm I agree the Scots have the edge in the backrow. Not sure about the Argie backrow.

I would say the backrow is the only area we have to worry about. It could be a big worry though as the breakdown is key for quick ball.

The Argies ran the French close last Autumn but lost. They have some talented backrow players like Lobbe who are the Argentinian equivalent of Sergio Parisse.

maestegmafia wrote:

beshocked wrote:roddersm I agree the Scots have the edge in the backrow. Not sure about the Argie backrow.

I would say the backrow is the only area we have to worry about. It could be a big worry though as the breakdown is key for quick ball.

The Argies ran the French close last Autumn but lost. They have some talented backrow players like Lobbe who are the Argentinian equivalent of Sergio Parisse.

They comfortably put them away in the summer of 2010 (41-13 or similar) to banish their memories of two Scotland defeats at home. They also played the French Barbarians a couple of times earlier this year, with a win apiece from memory?

i am probably being optimistic but everyone including the welsh fans seem to have disregarded wales, saying they will struggle to make it out of their group. i am hoping the past few years have been part of gatlands master plan, pretend to play poor rugby then no one expects you to do well, then you come to the world cup and play some amazing rugby which any welshman would be proud of

i can dream...

I think emack has the right idea, the biggest surprise could come from the France/NZ group, where both Tonga and Japan have played some good stuff recently. Lievremont is an awful coach, and if the ABs give France a thrashing, I can easily see French heads go down, and if the selections are wrong, one of Tonga or Japan stepping up.

Japan have just moved up 3 places in the IRB rankings to 12th. only just behind Italy now, if you see the IRB as being a good form guide then that speaks volumes of their ability.

Hmmm, I don't

BATH_BTGOG wrote:Hmmm, I don't

What are your thoughts on England being ranked fifth and their chances at the Rugby World Cup then ?

"My biggest fear is that Arg and Scotland both decide to turn up and play rugby"

There is a real potential here for both Arg. and Scotland to put England out. As world cups go by no means the biggest upset around.

All it takes is one good game from each and England could find themselves out. Not likely but there's worse upsets around.

Taylorman wrote:"My biggest fear is that Arg and Scotland both decide to turn up and play rugby"

There is a real potential here for both Arg. and Scotland to put England out. As world cups go by no means the biggest upset around.

All it takes is one good game from each and England could find themselves out. Not likely but there's worse upsets around.

That would be a pretty huge upset. It is certainly not impossible, as Scotland were very close to beating England at Twickenham this year. They look a better side with Ruaridh Jackson at flyhalf.

To my disgust Only half the Australia v Samoa came out the first,Australia
looked like they were there for a training session.Showed no respect[from what I saw],turned down 4 kicks at goal early.
There set piece was average to poor,and handling errors they made would have shamed schoolboys.They did`nt look like scoring until the yellow card.
All that shows is you don1t take libertys with ANY side in a RWC.
All the Pacific Island nations,plus Italy and Argentina are now a threat at
RWC`s.
It poses a problem for the teams in there group,because tactical weak teams may not be an option in any group.
In Group A New Zealand or France or both could lose to Tonga or Japan if the try playing weakened sides against them.
France have a dilemma versus NZ to they go flat out for a win against the All Blacks in the group stage.Then risk being so blown out by the effort they don`t turn up in the next round.Like 1999 or 2007 or save there best for later.People who make jibes about France beating NZ that the score is 2 each in RWC`s and they are the only NH sides to beat them.
Englands group I think it could well be a case of all three Scotland and Argentina,and England each winning one game each and that.
Who goes through will rely on how they perform versus the rest
of the group bonus points or points difference deciding it.
South Africa on known form will win there group,Wales,Samoa, or Fiji one of those three all could qualify.
Australia,Ireland both should qualify and Ireland if they play to there best could spring a surprise.
Australia are certainly on a high after Hong Kong victory and Reds successful S15 campaign.But the loss of ther best Prop has weakened the scrum,and of all the Sh sides the have the least depth.
Todays NZ papers are having a brown trouser day,how can we beat tis great improving Aussie side.When all our top players have flattened out form wise.
This without a AB player having kicked a ball in anger yet,worries about injury cover and on and on.Any one would think reading there press they had`nt won a match for years instead of coming off a 18 match winning streak before losing in hong Kong.

As a proud Welshman, I would have to say Wales getting out of the group stages would definitely be the biggest surprise for me!

Huwball wrote:As a proud Welshman, I would have to say Wales getting out of the group stages would definitely be the biggest surprise for me!

Its not going to be easy, I am more worried about the warm up games right now.

Maesteg, you are right... Look what happened to drago in rocky 4 when he trained in the eastern block!

I have got to be honest, with the "global game" (sorry about the management speak boll@ks) even the lower level team players are playing in s15, magners the Jeff, top 14 etc. So the whole dynamics of the game have changed.

I said about 3 years ago Austrailia but stupid me didn't put any cash on them. I think the Aussies had been out on the pi$$ the night before they played Samoa.

For me, not knowing all the stats etc. It would be a NZ/Aus final - probably can't happen, but Aus to win and everyone in Wales calling for Gatlands head on a silver platter!

Some of this stuff comes back to preparation. While the 3N have their tourney and the Pacific cup had theirs, don't you think the NH could be found missing real test match fitness coming into this?

Samoa have clearly benefited from the Pacific cup and even the win was a bit of an ambush (mainly Oz on themselves) they still did enough to win when Oz started wanting to play properly, albeit a bit late.

Taylorman wrote:Some of this stuff comes back to preparation. While the 3N have their tourney and the Pacific cup had theirs, don't you think the NH could be found missing real test match fitness coming into this?

Samoa have clearly benefited from the Pacific cup and even the win was a bit of an ambush (mainly Oz on themselves) they still did enough to win when Oz started wanting to play properly, albeit a bit late.

Two schools of thought on that though, one that you are going into the RWC with near experience of the competitive environment, knowing your players and first team well. The other that the effort it takes to try to win one tournament then another almost back to back is too much to ask.

The SH teams have won all but one World Cup and they are always sharp from start to finish so I guess the SH way works well. They seem to use the Tri-Nations to refine the team and fringe players.

Most of the other teams going into the RWC have three competitive fixtures in August so they won't be lacking a competitive edge, but theRWC does come at the start of our season as opposed to near the end of yours.