Are NZ two injuries away from being mere mortals?

Eddie Jones was on Total Rugby tonight and stressed how important Dan Carter is to NZ which I think most people would fully agree with. However, if DC and Richie McCaw were both injured (not beyond the bounds of possibility as McCaw does seem to be picking up a few knocks these days), I really think the Kiwis would lose a good part of the aura about them.
I am certainly not saying that Scotland or any of the 3rd tier of teams (Wales, Italy, Argies and the South Sea boys) could beat them in that weakened state but one of the stronger second ranked nations (thinking of France, England and Ireland mainly) would fancy their chances.
Am I being realistic in this assessment or am I clutching at straws and trying to find ways of having someone other than SDA or Oz in with a chance of beating NZ?

One thing's for sure, if they lose them both, they will be far more beatable.

But you could say that for most of the top 5 or 6. If Ireland lose Sexton & BOD - same thing.

I partially agree with you Gibbo. Granted, BOD is pretty irreplacable but the drop off between Sexton (who I think is a great but slightly inconsistent player) and however would replace him would not be as great as DC to, say, Steven Donald

Wales, Italy and Argentine 3rd tier? I don't think so. The historical win-loss record of England v. Wales is nearly identical and the Pumas have beaten England at "Twickers" in recent years.

You take genuine world class players out of the equation and it´s a big loss to any team. Especially a captain. Take Martin Johnson and Wilkinson out of 2003 and that leaves a big hole.

But at the moment they´re playing. Richie McCaw isn´t in the greatest form but there´s still 5 test matches before the RWC plus some pool games.

Injuries of course hurt a team. Last RWC cup not only Carter went off injured but so too did Nick Evans. You can´t plan for that. It´s just bad luck. As for speculating about taking those two out of the NZ equation, then they´d be sorely missed but they wouldn´t be essential to winning.

France and England have beaten the ABs before and are always worth a shout. Ireland is probably the flag bearer for the best test team never to have beaten the All Blacks. But I´d still rate our chances without those two, if anything for that legacy because I think Ireland are better than England at the moment or at least have the better of England at the moment.

Dan Carter and Richie McCaw is obviously important for the All Blacks.. But the fact is they are not the only match winners in the NZ team. Realistically, no I don't think it will make such a difference. McCaw and Carter can be replaced with other decent players who will just play their own game. They nay become a little more predictable but will still be a very good side

EggbertEnglishman wrote:Wales, Italy and Argentine 3rd tier? I don't think so. The historical win-loss record of England v. Wales is nearly identical and the Pumas have beaten England at "Twickers" in recent years.

Eggbert, statistics, my friend, can say anything. Yes, I put those 3 nations along with Scotland in the 3rd tier. Most Welsh fans here admit that they are mince (perhaps, they shouldn't be but the fact is that they are as they are underperforming). Scotland beat the Argies in Argie-land, SA and Oz at home in the last 2 years but get pumped most times we play France etc. All are capable of the one-off upset but struggle to beat the big boys on a regular basis so I think all 4 nations do sit in the 3 tier.

how dare you imply wales are 3rd tier, tbh i think fh is a weak spot for NZ, as i dont see any replacement for dan carter at 10, whereas with most other teams (NH espcially) have suitable replacements,
it would still be no easy task with the talent they have but it would be far more do able

biltongbek wrote:Dan Carter and Richie McCaw is obviously important for the All Blacks.. But the fact is they are not the only match winners in the NZ team. Realistically, no I don't think it will make such a difference. McCaw and Carter can be replaced with other decent players who will just play their own game. They nay become a little more predictable but will still be a very good side

Biltong,
But a far lesser side. Those 2, are more than just the best players, in their positions, in the World... they make the AB's tick.

I hope and pray that nothing happens those guys. I want to see the best players play in the RWC. It's what it's all about.

wHy do people give so much recognition toEx Wallaby coaches who have an inferior complex about the All Blcks,which causes them to "bring down "the ABs at every opportunity that any form of media offers them?
2 weeks ago on 606 we had an article based on Bob Dwyer calling the ABs cheats a couple of days out from the S.15 final.
Personally I dont think the replacement open side or first 5 8th is a big issue especially as we have over 2 months before the WC playoffs.
But I am more than confident that over the next 2 months we will see more instances of Ex Wallaby coaches having their "digs" at the All Blacks.

its no different for any team likewise if the ABs loose their first choice front row they would be in equal trouble.

welshy824 wrote:how dare you imply wales are 3rd tier, tbh i think fh is a weak spot for NZ, as i dont see any replacement for dan carter at 10, whereas with most other teams (NH espcially) have suitable replacements,
it would still be no easy task with the talent they have but it would be far more do able

I agree. Plenty of depth in the back row and whilst loosing the captain would be a big loss, I could still see NZ winning the cup with the players they have in reserve. However, the back up to Carter isn't really there yet (probably why they are starting with Slade this weekend) and as good as SBW looks, he's still inexperienced in union terms. I do agree with Gibson though, I want to see all the best players in the world play, even against the teams I support.

By the way, if McCaw was to be injured then who becomes captain? (Does Read cover like he does for the Crusaders?).

injuries are a reality of playing competitive rugby,all teams are likey to be weakened as a result of injuries...
Of course the All Blacks are mere mortals,its just that they have worked very hard to be members of a very good team, a point that the likes of Eddie Jones would not like to give too much exposure...

The thing that Jones is pointing to is not just the talent of Carter and McCaw it is their Charisma.

The All Blacks are modelled on them and moulded around them. They are the character of the team.

That is why they would be missed. I dont think any other team has two such prominent figures characterising their team.

Think even without McCaw and Carter they would still be firm favourites. If the 1987 team had lost Fox and Jones to injury I believe they probably still would have won - just means narrower victories, and more chance of an upset. Your point is taken though, as NZ without their best 2 players will struggle, as would any team. Then again if there is one country with great strength in depth surely that is NZ.

Injured - knew you'd get a bit of a reaction with the 3rd tier comment (although 3rd tier doesn't mean 3rd rate in the derogatory sense), I think there's more 2 tiers with the top 6 (NZ, SA, Aus, Fr, Ire, Eng) and then the next 6. Teams in the 2nd tier certainly do have the ability to beat those in the top tier, just unlikely to repeat the feat enough times to win the trophy.

As far as Scotland and Wales are concerned, Scotland must outperform either England or Argentina, certainly doable but also very possible to lose both. Wales have a very bad SA record and see nothing likely to change that, and then probably have to beat both Fiji and Samoa. the way those 2 are playing that could be a challenge for Wales. Like Scotland there is also a serious danger Wales might not qualify, both teams need to be ready and up for it. Ireland are currently the safest Home Country bet for the QF, England should do it but don't see them as far ahead of us as some think.

Maestag
I did not see the interview, but to say that the team is moulded and modelled on just 2 players and that they form the culture of the team is ridiculous .
There are plenty of other players in that squad that make up the chemistry of the squad ,in fact they all do.

Nah, I agree with the propositin NZ minus Carter and McCaw are a hugely different proposition. Carter in particular is massively important to the Kiwi's, not just because he has grown into the best all round 10 I have ever seen but also because there is barely a decent alternative waiting in the wings. The Kiwis typically lose or struggle when these two are either missing or having a bad day. These two excepted, man for man opposition teams often have equally talented players - these two make the machine work above the sum of the parts.

aucklandlaurie wrote: Maestag
I did not see the interview, but to say that the team is moulded and modelled on just 2 players and that they form the culture of the team is ridiculous .
There are plenty of other players in that squad that make up the chemistry of the squad ,in fact they all do.

What you say is true but Carter and McCaw are undoubtably the superstars in a team full of talent.

So taking them away does make the team very different. As we have all seen when the ABs are with out them they are a different side, with them they look invincible 90% of the time.

They would be a much lesser team without them - not just the two best players in the world in their positions but probably the two best players in the world.

they'd still be a damn good team... but I don't know how good, perhaps just one of the top 3 or 4 rather than the top 1 as they currently are. They'd have back up players in two of the key positions and I don't know how good the back ups are ( Donald is someone who was a back up until recently and got a lot of stick which suggest some drop off)

The mental blow of losing them are likely to hurt the team as well - I'd imagine it would hit the other players hard if they both got long term injuries.

Icant help but think that a lot of you guys underestimate the other members of the All Blacks squad, and they contrubution they make to the organisation as a whole...

aucklandlaurie wrote: Icant help but think that a lot of you guys underestimate the other members of the All Blacks squad, and they contrubution they make to the organisation as a whole...

Not at all...! But to take away the talisman, or in this case talismen, of a team changes a hell of a lot.

If McCqaw and carter are such an important factor as to whether the All Blacks win ,are you suggesting that it is in the interest of other teams that they should be put out of the competition by dealing to them?
Break a couple of legs in the Tri nations and get them out of the World Cup ?

aucklandlaurie wrote: If McCqaw and carter are such an important factor as to whether the All Blacks win ,are you suggesting that it is in the interest of other teams that they should be put out of the competition by dealing to them?
Break a couple of legs in the Tri nations and get them out of the World Cup ?

Erm. You seem to be making a big leap from those two being key players to suggesting people want to see them intentionally injured...

Snoop
remember this is coming from Eddie Jones...
Over the past 4 or 5 years we have seen International players yellow and red carded in their attempts to get at McCaw especially..

aucklandlaurie wrote: remember this is coming from Eddie Jones...
Over the past 4 or 5 years we have seen International players yellow and red carded in their attempts to get at McCaw especially..

true but that isn't a one off in international rugby - he's not the first and he won't be the last, sadly, star player on a team who is targeted.
My objection was your comment read like you were suggesting that people in this post wanted to see him and Carter deliberately targeted because they recognised that they were key players for an opposing team which is something I would hope no rugby fan would ever hope for. Sorry if I misunderstood what you were saying.

Snoopster
No worries M8,probably my fault for not making myself clear.

t he common denominator in all of this is that a lot ex Wallaby coaches and players seem to spend a lot of time looking out over the water in an easterly direction..
they havent won a lot of silverware lately, and a lot of it is because of thos pesky Kiwis....To mention an example the Bledisloe cup .. what is it 10 years???

aucklandlaurie wrote: Snoop
remember this is coming from Eddie Jones...
Over the past 4 or 5 years we have seen International players yellow and red carded in their attempts to get at McCaw especially..

Like the Kiwis purposely and successfully did with O' Driscoll you mean? I agree. Bad Karma is not required.

aucklandlaurie wrote: Snoopster
No worries M8,probably my fault for not making myself clear.

t he common denominator in all of this is that a lot ex Wallaby coaches and players seem to spend a lot of time looking out over the water in an easterly direction..
they havent won a lot of silverware lately, and a lot of it is because of thos pesky Kiwis....To mention an example the Bledisloe cup .. what is it 10 years???

thanks for clarifying - all objections to what you said are withdrawn and I can completely understand your annoyance.

Gibson
And to use an Irish example, Richie mcCaw shouldnt have repeatedly head butted that Irish looseforwards knee??
What was his name ? not sure but wasnt it Heaslip??.....Red card,very early on in the game...

Auck mate,
Heaslip was an idiot in that scene. Said so afterwards. He knew McCaw gets away with coming in from the side - ad infinitum. It's Law. So he should have accepted it. He paid the price with a red. Ireland paid the price with a walloping. Fair dues

But please dont compare it to a scene when 2 men should have got jail, for attempted, pre-mediated - manslaughter.

That's what it was - in the moment. They meant it. And got away with it.If it happened on the steets, they were gone for 10 years. A very Black day for All Black karma. And for the game as a whole.

I love and respect NZ rugby. Love to watch ye play. Love the way ye play. You take the game to a different level and dont need the nasties to get there. Ye are too good for that.

Lets move on shall we?

Carter and Mccaw are the 2 best players on Earth. Discuss.

Gibson
Excuse me but it was you that raised O'Driscoll as a comparison..not me..
i was talking about Eddie Jones, Richie McCaw and dan Carter.....

Gibson
On a side note,How can you have pre-meditated manslaughter????

aucklandlaurie wrote: If McCqaw and carter are such an important factor as to whether the All Blacks win ,are you suggesting that it is in the interest of other teams that they should be put out of the competition by dealing to them?
Break a couple of legs in the Tri nations and get them out of the World Cup ?

That was the post that prompted my riposte, mo chara. I updated my last post. Just see a red-mist when I actually think of it.

BOD left it behind him and moved on up. I, obviously - have not. Leinster & Ireland man for 40 years you see.

Sorry if I offended anyone. Its just the way I saw it. I would pay to see NZ anywhere on Earth. Hard, sublimely skilful and normally... fair-ish. Deep Joy to watch.

aucklandlaurie wrote: Gibson
On a side note,How can you have pre-meditated manslaughter????

You cant. But... enough intent to cripple and maim.. and inadvertently killing someone? It did not happen, but it was close to it. I have been in court cases when pre-meditated intent (conspiracy) actually outweighed a murder sentence. Weird eh?

Poetic licence.

Man. Lets leave it there. I hope we have more fruitful conversations on here. I really do.

Gibson
Fair call mate. i inturn have a lot of respect for Ireland and appreciate the improvements the Irish team have made over the last decade..
On the 17 th September I will be at Eden to watch Ireland...and as it now turns out its 3rd plays 4th (IRB rankings)...

Auck. Its 3 in de morning in Amsterdam. I am a wee bit pished and stoned (for medicinal purposes). Great to meet you man. Respect sir.

NZ are already mere mortals.
I bet SA and Aus are backing themselves to beat us regardless of whose in the team.
In think Irish and Scottish fans and Welsh to a lesser extent put the ABs on too high a pedistle (sp).
Sure they won a lot of games last year (well all but one) but in how many of them did they truely dominate 15 players?
Ireland, SA and Aus shot themselves in the foot with red cards (bad luck to Mitchell). ABs sneaked past SA and Aus with 15 men and eventually lost.
ABs had an okay game against England, put Scotland to the sword and then looked strong and comfortable but not great against Wales and Ireland.
So chill baby on the unbeatabilty of the ABs.
I reckon their last great game was against France the year before and even then its hard to know with France.

"Are NZ two injuries away from being mere mortals?"

I think Eddie Jones needs to look at his own back yard. Going by last weeks results 2 end of season injuries to Cooper and Genia would practically end most chances Oz have of winning the World cup- certainly on paper.

Take those two out and there is a huge hole in the side as everything- gameplan, tactics, confidence, motivation and even point scoring revolves around those two because theres no one else in their positions good enough.

That's is why I believe they'll be 'targetted' during the 3N whatever targetted means.

The team ANY TEAM is about 22 players [now] and how they are used,lest
you forget the All Blacks won there last 3Ns match using Weepu/Crudon/Slade in a close one.
Kronfeld went North.did the AB`s weep NO up Stepped Holah and McCaw.
Players like Matt Todd.Luke Braid,Adam Thomson can all cover 7.
If the AB management has had a fault it has been finding cover for DC,Stephen Donald is a tidy player,likewise Mike Delaney,with more game play Crudon and slade will develop
Further down the line there are half a dozen Fly halves coming on Sopanga.Anscombe.Bleyendahl all gaining experience.
Even if required for one off matches experienced veterans like Tony Brown and Marty Holah are still available.
Ritchie McCaw not showing form,out most of the season,plays a couple of matches not yet Match fit and you expect perfection ?
In 2009 Heinrich Broussow out played a McCaw in the 3Ns when Mc Caw was just back from injury and not match fit.
In the first two games,by the third McCaw was match fit and Broussow was the invisible man.
In 2009 the All Blacks had a major injury crisis from July Internationals to end of the 3Ns a patch work team struggled.By the end of the year they were back IRB number one.
Everyone said can they beat the Boks 2010 well they answered that losing one test narrowly all year.
The Boks had a similar injury crisis with the similar results in 2010,both sides
have shewn they have players coming through to cover.
Could the Wallabies succeed without Pocock,Genia and Cooper?
NO All Black side is a push over for ANY side and the idea that 21 victories since 1903 from NH sides will suddenly become gods because the Black Machine loses a couple of players.
True when the Dynamic Duo have played the All Blacks have won 88% of there matches but few of those were versus NH sides.
In a one of match ANY side should beleave they can beat another otherwise whats the point of playing the game ?

I wouldn't get too perturbed by what Eddie Jones says - he is seen as a bit of joke in Australia and had a poor record as head coach of any side. At least Dwyer had success (though Bob is a bit of clown these days too).

Agree I think too many in NH put ABs on a pedastal in the untouchable category.They are vulnerable like any team if put under sustained pressure. sustaining that pressure is very difficult though.

Carter would be a much bigger loss to the side than McCaw. ABs have serious depth in the backrow and Crusaders seemed to do fine without McCaw for large chunks of the season.

aucklandlaurie wrote: Gibson
Fair call mate. i inturn have a lot of respect for Ireland and appreciate the improvements the Irish team have made over the last decade..
On the 17 th September I will be at Eden to watch Ireland...and as it now turns out its 3rd plays 4th (IRB rankings)...

Will be 2v4 come Saturday.....

Crusaders Seemed to do OK for large chunks of the season without
Carter and McCaw.Matt Todd and Matt Berquist stepped up big time
as did Kieran Read as Captain.
ANY side that can leave Chris Jack in the stands[on his form for most of the year]is blessed with a great pack.

It is wishful thinking to think that the All Blacks will become more beatable because Richie McCaw and Dan Carter is not playing.

Let us take SA as an example last year. Most people in SA think we lost so many games because Fourie du Preez weren't here, and Heinrich Brussouw to a lesser extent.

Nonsense.

We played poorly last year, becuase PDV and his senior players refused to adapt to the new breakdown laws. We were nowhere on the park. That had absolutely nothing to do with Fourie du Preez. In fact Francois Hougaard in my opinion did a good job behind the pack.

As far as the injuries to Heinrich Brussouw is concerned, we unearthed Francois Louw , we had Willem Alberts coming into the mix.

Were we more beatable because of two players. No, we were mre beatable because we played poor rugby, lacked motivation and couldn't adapt.

In the All Black's case. McCaw is an inspirational leader yes, but to think they don't have a good enough replacement is nonsense. Yes Dan Carter is a talisman for them.

If you remove Richie McCaw and Dan carter, their defense doesn't go backwards. So teams will still score more or less the same points against them.

The All Blacks may score a few points less because of Carter not there to exploit opportunities.

The breakdown area may be more even, but in all honesty I doubt that.

Last year the All Blacks dominated the breakdowns, nit because of McCaw, but because of the processes they put into place at the breakdowns. Franks being in an offside position clearing opposition players, stopping access to the ball. They got away with it, and good luck to them. This year they moght not, but the All Blacks will remain as formidable as they need to be to beat most teams comfortably, with or without McCaw and Carter.