Player Migration, Economies and The Rugby World Cup. Oh and Beer.

Some possibly sobering news for anyone heading out to NZ for the RWC as it turns out that the New Zealand dollar is currently hovering near a 30 year high.

The wholesale rate is just over 2 for 1 at the moment and at your average retail vendor you'll be lucky to get 2 kiwi dollars for a pound. In the olden days when I first moved out here it was as near as made no difference to 4 to 1. At the same time inflation in NZ spent the last decade in high single figures.

This means four practical things to me:

First NZ is going to seem bottom botheringly expensive for anyone arriving in NZ for the RWC who like me (a) isn't smart enough to shuffle money around the world to hedge things like US debt ceilings and eurozone bailouts and (b) isn't loaded to the extent where this sort of thing isn't a mere irrelevance (c) kept putting off the buying of the airline tickets 6 months ago when they were a quarter of what they are now.

The second thing is that if this trend continues (and it's been continuing for the past 10 years) http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=NZD&to=GBP&view=10Y this surely will sooner or later start to stem the flow of SH players to the NH as the giant pay packets are now worth half of what they were at the dawn of professionalism.

The third is that Barmy Army song about how many dollars you get for the pound is going to be much shorter than it was a few years ago.

Finally. And arguably the most important of all. The price of an average pint of beer in Auckland is now (and for the first time since I wore long pants) more expensive than it is in London. Not just comparative to standard of living, but in real terms. And I'm talking Speights, Macs, Steinlager, Lion Red standard Kiwi largers here. And this is average prices. Averaged across some fairly average places. More accurately, a reliable correspondent told me a few days ago that he recently paid NZ$22.50 for a head-heavy pint of "specialty premium imported lager" (read: a Stella), in a bar in the reasonably nice-to-go-for-a-drink part of Auckland somewhere near Eden Park.

this surely will sooner or later start to stem the flow of SH players to the NH as the giant pay packets are now worth half of what they were at the dawn of professionalism.

This is becomming very clear in England, just look at how few post RWC internationals are coming this way from NZ. Only Donald to Bath seems likely the rest are off the Japan or France.

he recently paid NZ$22.50 for a head-heavy pint of "specialty premium imported lager" (read: a Stella)

You've have to pay me more than that to drink Stella. Sounds pricey though, good job I'm watching the RWC from blighty then.

Would stemming the flow of SH players to the NH actually increase the standard of the NH national teams? Blessing in disguise?

red_stag wrote:Would stemming the flow of SH players to the NH actually increase the standard of the NH national teams? Blessing in disguise?

How?

The local players that replace won't be as good (which is why they wouldn't have been picked). So the overall level of quality drops. Do players get better if the overall playing quality drops? Don't 'they' say you get better by playing better opponents?

What would happen is that you'll get more players of average ability getting time.

The flipside of that coin is if less SH players move north, then more NH players will get the opportunity to prove themselves.

biltongbek wrote:The flipside of that coin is if less SH players move north, then more NH players will get the opportunity to prove themselves.

If they all left over a season it would leave a huge void in English rugby.

Most teams have five or six foreigners in a matchday 22.

maestegmafia wrote:

biltongbek wrote:The flipside of that coin is if less SH players move north, then more NH players will get the opportunity to prove themselves.

If they all left over a season it would leave a huge void in English rugby.

Most teams have five or six foreigners in a matchday 22.

I am pretty sure the players contracts don't all end at the same time. So the management of each club can plan for this.

Realistically though, because of the depth of players in SA and NZ, this trend won't end soon, there aren't enough teams in the super 15 who make big money anyway, and therefor can't accommodate all the players.

The reason I say it could be good thing for Northern players is that I think few players are born good. First team game time is the key. I've notice the strenght in depth for Irish players dramaticaly increase since we've started promoting domestic players. And changes won't be that drastic. Players will still come to Europe just not as many.

The strong NZ$ will not last, NZ can not export their goods and some companies are going bust. NZ will devalue the NZ$ sooner rather than later, I guess they will wait to see what happens in USA first.

Not sure about Jafaland, hate the place and only go there for one thing. But prices ain't that bad over here if youlive the NZ$.

As for the Barmy Army, most are upper middle class snobs from England and $22 a pint will not bother them.

biltongbek wrote:

maestegmafia wrote:

biltongbek wrote:The flipside of that coin is if less SH players move north, then more NH players will get the opportunity to prove themselves.

If they all left over a season it would leave a huge void in English rugby.

Most teams have five or six foreigners in a matchday 22.

I am pretty sure the players contracts don't all end at the same time. So the management of each club can plan for this.

Realistically though, because of the depth of players in SA and NZ, this trend won't end soon, there aren't enough teams in the super 15 who make big money anyway, and therefor can't accommodate all the players.

There are as many SH players coming north as ever most of them are moving to the top 14 now though rather than the AP or Rado pro. The top 14 is growing in strength and in team budget at an alarming rate and will continue to attract marque signings regardless of the inflated Aus and NZ dollars. Don't be surprised if many more sign up after the WC.

welshjohn369 wrote:The strong NZ$ will not last, NZ can not export their goods and some companies are going bust. NZ will devalue the NZ$ sooner rather than later, I guess they will wait to see what happens in USA first.

Not sure about Jafaland, hate the place and only go there for one thing. But prices ain't that bad over here if youlive the NZ$.

As for the Barmy Army, most are upper middle class snobs from England and $22 a pint will not bother them.

In you. So much anger there is. Not ready to face Vader you are.

I've been saying the strong NZ$ won't last for the last ten years. And it keeps lasting.

TheGreyGhost wrote:

welshjohn369 wrote:The strong NZ$ will not last, NZ can not export their goods and some companies are going bust. NZ will devalue the NZ$ sooner rather than later, I guess they will wait to see what happens in USA first.

Not sure about Jafaland, hate the place and only go there for one thing. But prices ain't that bad over here if youlive the NZ$.

As for the Barmy Army, most are upper middle class snobs from England and $22 a pint will not bother them.

In you. So much anger there is. Not ready to face Vader you are.

I've been saying the strong NZ$ won't last for the last ten years. And it keeps lasting.

Confirms my suspicions! A star wars geek! So economics wasn't your strongest subject then,,,,, well I sincerely hope not. Wages in NZ are about 5% behind the cost of living and exporters are suffering because noone can afford to buy NZ goods!!

Angry about what by the way? You make me laugh

Not sure about Jafaland, hate the place and only go there for one thing. But prices ain't that bad over here if youlive the NZ$.

As for the Barmy Army, most are upper middle class snobs from England and $22 a pint will not bother them.
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Because that's a completely balanced point....

A lot of pressure keeping the NZ value high comes from institutional investment in the NZ dollar by way of leveraging the higher interest rates offered in NZ in comparison with (for example) Japan. When there's massive amounts of foreign currency flooding such a small market it's going to have more impact than the local commodity trading conditions. There isn't much the NZ government can do about this. Inflationary rises in wages will just push the interest rates higher and make the situation worse. Aside from which the government enjoys the benefit of the high dollar to keep consumers happy with energy costs and gizmo importing. A lower dollar isn't going to help in that respect.

Owned.

Grey Ghost 1 - 0 WelshJohn

"We haven't seen these levels since the 70s... and it is going to dampen our economic growth if we can't get it under control,"

John Key



"New Zealand has become a victim of its own success in a world of uncertainty. As long as [people are] willing to put their money down here the currency will stay aloft."


Stephen Toplis

If the people can not afford the basics they will not be buying 'gizmo's' from abroad.

Mind you if you know better get down here and tell John

You've provided a quote that substantiates my argument. Not sure if you thought that was clever, misunderstood the quote, or didn't grasp my argument. Either that or you're trying to shuffle around to the other side of the debate.

John Key doesn't say "we're going to get it under control" he merely suggests that if it is not controlled then economic growth will dampen. I don't think anyone is disputing that point. As far as I see it he's got an empty six shooter, so he's trying to talk it down.

Oh dear. Give up welshjohn

May i ask you what you have done to deserve such stalking from welshjohn Greyghost? He seems to follow you everywhere on here

I think they should get a room.............

Trying to talk it down in the USA!

I can see what he says I QUOTED HIM! How I actually substantiate what you say defies me.

Mind you I am sure the vutures are waiting now ready to pounce on the World Cup fans. They are already cancelled many bookings and asking for $200 or $300 more on the bills. Pubs will do the same as will every buisiness in NZ. WHat will occur is an anger by the fans for being ripped off.

Consequence less tourists in future years,

eirebilly wrote:May i ask you what you have done to deserve such stalking from welshjohn Greyghost? He seems to follow you everywhere on here

Good God, stalking gg, are you sane? Mind you it is an area that I and a top forensic Consultant Psychiatrist in Wales know a lot about after studying together. gg wants to go the whole 9 with me then my little Star Wars friend can, he is small fry, predictable and it'stime he had a little medicene of his own

Shame that the forensic consultant psychiatrist you studied with didn't teach you to spell medicine.

TheGreyGhost wrote:Shame that the forensic consultant psychiatrist you studied with didn't teach you to spell medicine.

That it is it!? Thes craping of the barrel, gg is oicking me for spelling

Head up, your point of view is important to me, honest.

Getting back on track
I don't think the high NZ$ will make that much difference to the player drain. Think how much Luke Mcallister can earn playing Super rugby and ITM cup but not ABs. I doubt its as much as what he can get in France exchange rate included.

NZ$ is staying a little too strong more to do with weakness in other major currencies than the strength of NZ economy. Europe is being weakened by the influence of Greece, Spain etc while the USA just can't sort its s**t out. Worse is to come I imagine with interest rates about to rise in NZ to combat inflation.

$22 for a beer is way too much but then different places charge whatever they like. But definitely times are tough for many in NZ. Obviously Welshjohn on a better salary than most. Just buy a slab of beer from Pack 'n Save and have a party at home.

nganboy wrote:Getting back on track
I don't think the high NZ$ will make that much difference to the player drain. Think how much Luke Mcallister can earn playing Super rugby and ITM cup but not ABs. I doubt its as much as what he can get in France exchange rate included.

NZ$ is staying a little too strong more to do with weakness in other major currencies than the strength of NZ economy. Europe is being weakened by the influence of Greece, Spain etc while the USA just can't sort its s**t out. Worse is to come I imagine with interest rates about to rise in NZ to combat inflation.

$22 for a beer is way too much but then different places charge whatever they like. But definitely times are tough for many in NZ. Obviously Welshjohn on a better salary than most. Just buy a slab of beer from Pack 'n Save and have a party at home.

I not going to say how much I earn but I am blessed but work hard for my money. In fact I go for an interview tomorrow and if successful will drop $30,000 in salary but have a better job..... money ain't everything. You can get 12 bottle box of Heini for $22 at New World because I just bought a box and in anyones language that ain't so bad. Snapper at $30 a Kg now that is bonkers.

The current NZ$ has come as a bad time for NZ and it is nothing to jump about, if Frontera can'r export it's dairy products, Lamb is to expensive to export and all the other firms struggling it does not take much to figure out what happens.

Some here who have gone to the trouble of ripping off other economists writings as his own can even suss out that NZ could find themselves in much trouble.

Can't get exports out and tourists will not come in because of the price. I know my family are not coming over. Add to the fact that NZ hotels, pubs eyc have already committed financial suicide by raising their prices to disgusting levels will only stop tourists or WC fans ever wanting to come here again.

$22.50 a pint?

so thats about a tenner?

i can make five gallons of beer for that money, pretty good beer. my friends never refuse a third, or a fourth.

but i wont be drinking much during world cup games. theyre on waaaay too early. i might have a spot of something in my coffee for one of the wales games

dogtooth wrote:$22.50 a pint?

so thats about a tenner?

i can make five gallons of beer for that money, pretty good beer. my friends never refuse a third, or a fourth.

but i wont be drinking much during world cup games. theyre on waaaay too early. i might have a spot of something in my coffee for one of the wales games

A pint is NOT usually this much. Try $7-$9 at a more standard bar/restaurant.
If anyone is in Wellington for the RWC and needs a bed well my family is OS for all of Oct so I can give you a single bed for the night (my kids room). It will cost you two pints.

nganboy wrote:

dogtooth wrote:$22.50 a pint?

so thats about a tenner?

i can make five gallons of beer for that money, pretty good beer. my friends never refuse a third, or a fourth.

but i wont be drinking much during world cup games. theyre on waaaay too early. i might have a spot of something in my coffee for one of the wales games

A pint is NOT usually this much. Try $7-$9 at a more standard bar/restaurant.
If anyone is in Wellington for the RWC and needs a bed well my family is OS for all of Oct so I can give you a single bed for the night (my kids room). It will cost you two pints.

..... and if they are Welsh remember to take them to the Welsh Pub for the pints. I have a feeling that place will make a mint come September!!

The Welsh pub is 15 minutes walk from my place. Called the Dragon or some such. Never been there myself. Lovely old building. Used to be a mens loos back about 40 years ago.

That's right it was a public toilet years ago, I love the glass dome. Inside is wonderful with many Welsh memorabilia. Owners a great. When I am down the Capital it is my haunt, although I do vist the 2 Irish pubs down the road.


http://www.travelpod.com/travel-photo/planetpoe/1/1295467757/what-a-welsh-pub-in-wellington.jpg/tpod.html

Also

http://members.virtualtourist.com/m/361b/1cb415/5/