SPRINGBOK RUGBY a thesis

Good Morning,Emack2.rugby historian here, I am about to carry out a thesis on Springbok Rugby,and the Intertwining with there main rivals the All Blacks.
Sit back,as I hope to entertain,possibly educate,and anyway maybe change some pre conceived ideas . For the purposes of this thesis I speaking as a
Neutral Observer.The stastics I am quoting are from the respective hall of fame boards of the respective countries,they are against all comers.In the
previous attempt to post this I included the respactive % wins of each versus all comers[Omitted here for brevity].The figures are in the record books,
not just percentages for propaganda trying to prove a point.
I have taken 1903 as a starting point as I am unable to access NZ records prior to this date,SA records start from 1891 pre Republic being Founded 1910.
These stats pre 1903 have been omitted[ 6 losses,out of 7 games] .A truce was actually called during the Second Boer war so a match could be played
versus the British!!.The percentages are strictly matches played.won,no draws taken into account on either side but full results are here for completeness.
SPRING BOKS
1903 on Played=198,Won= 127 ,Drawn=15,Lost=56 64.14%

Pro Era Played=194,Won = 122,Drawn= 1,Lost=71 62.88%
Total Played=392,Won=249 .,Drawn 16,Lost=127 63.52%
ALL BLACKS
1903 on Played=295,Won=210,Drawn=15,Lost 70 71.8%
Pro Era Played=180,Won=147,Drawn= 2,Lost=31 81.67%
Total Played=475,Won=357,Drawn=17,Lost=101 75.15%
You will see from this figures that contrary to general belief the SpringBoks have been very consistent since 1903 ,only head to head with the All Blacks
have they suffered.I do not subscribe to "THE SUPER BOK"or "SUPER ALL BLACK" theory,ALL teams have peaks and troughs.England ,Wales,Scotland,
Ireland,France,and Australia have had them too.
Now we come to my Thesis,and it is backed up by experts of both sides,for the relative degrading of The Boks and the Improvement of the All Blacks.
Prior to the end of the 1949 series,The Boks played massive packs,the 3-4-1 scrum as a weapon ,wearing down sides and winning by great goal kickers
Osler,Brand,Geffin to name three.From 1951-1956 they changed to a running game.The All Blacks after 1956 played massive packs,10 man Rugby plus
Great Goal Kickers.They played like that until the Freddie Allen and later John Mitchell counter attacking eras.there ability to score tries has been
one of the features of the relative success.From 1960 after series defeats by France[there first ever home defeat in a series] they reverted to
the more traditional game.After Dr Danie Craven Boks Coach fixed the 3-4-1 for the All Blacks,the difference in the Goal kicking of Bob Scott
and Okey Geffin was the key factor.Only in the controversial 1976 series in SA did the All Blacks tour without a recognised goal kicker of the
Calibre of Don Clarke or Fergie McCormack{post 1966].1949 was the turning point for both sides.
SPRINGBOKS
1903-49 Played=47,Won=33.Drawn=5,Lost=9 70.21%
1949-95 Played=151Won=94,Drawn=11Lost=46 62.96%
ALL BLACKS
1903-49 Played=73,Won=49,Drawn=2.Lost=22 67.72%
1949-95 played=222,Won=161 Drawn=11,lost=48 72.52%
This period is mostly based on tour results,which of course like everything else have been more prolific since the percentages of draws is almost identical
so my calculations are moreorless accurate,of course the relative size of the games played/won effect the stats too.
HEAD_TO_HEAD BOKS first
Pre Pro Era Played=42,Won=18,Drawn=3,Lost= 21 50 %
Cavaliers Played=4,Won= 3 Lost=1 75%
Pro Era Played= 40,Won=12 Lost= 28 42.85%
Overall played=86,Won=36,Drawn=3 Lost=47 41.86%
This thesis is NOT to prove one team is superior to the other I have always thought the sides were equal,home advantage being decisive during touring days.
The Springboks are one of the most successful sides in World Rugby,from 1903to 1956 they didn`t lose a series Home or Away,but Drew 3 1921,1928,1955
the All Blacks in contrast the period is 1903-37,with Drawn Series 1921,28.
The Spring boks achieved four grand slams,during touring era,the All Blacks did`nt manage one,1925,1967 were unbeaten on tour,1963 side unbeaten in tests
The Springboks did`nt win a home test versus the All Blacks,1998-2008,and only one other 1981-2008.
All these figures prove are that they are BOTH Great sides 1921,and over the years there is little to seperate them,I have posted this because I had an itch I had to scratch
this is the result.
Have you ever thoght about coaches and Serendipity,a Coach who changed history for his country,but not honoured for it Victor Cavanagh[Jr or Senior]never an All Black coach.
Or having the luck to find or inherit a great group of players,then when things are changing getting out for whatever reason.Wales late 1969-70`s,England and Sir Clive
Woodward.
South Africa and New Zealand both have famous 100% record coaches Kitsch Christie[ sadly died of Leukemia ]1994-1996,but curiously The All Blacks Won 2 and Drew 1 in 1994 versus the Boks,lost the RCW in 1995,then Won 4 out of 5,including 3 in SA.Or Freddie Allen having the core of Great Forwards inherited from Neil M cPhail,Meads,Tremain,Lochore,Gray,Kirton,Davis
.I wonder how he would have managed within 1970`s crop.
Finally Peter De Villiers is a Political appointment THE FIRST coloured Boks Coach,in the same way Errol Tobias was the First Coloured Bok Player,it will be intersting to see if he is reappointed post RWC,a fairly respectable 63% win record. A half way decent RWC and the powers that be may give him another couple of years.
Whatever happens post RWC the Boks will have a new crop of players as stalwarts,like Smit,Du Preez,Botha,and Matfield vanish to there pensions in the NH,several other seniors like Butch James ,Juan Smith,and Bryan Habana may be close to retirement too.
Australia have already established a team of young players,a large number of All Blacks are leaving some very senior and very good still.Next years 4Ns looks very exciting.

Alan, thanks for the article, the problem with PDv his win stats started near the 70% mark in the first 20 tests, it has dropped below 50% in the last 23, in fact he is sitting on 30% odd for the last 15 tests.

This is a clear indication that he has never evolved with the game, and has only relied on what was there before he arrived,

The fact that his overall win rate is still 60%+ is only testament to a bunch of severely talented players who could have dominated in the last four years, had they a coach worth anything.

Thanks for the comments,the article took many hours preparation I hope people think it was worth my while doing it.
People may think of me as a rabid one eyed All Black fan,but i`m far from that I try to be objective too.
Been up most of the night printing and collating that thesis,too many people look at stats.Without digging beneath the surface those are the bare facts.
After I`ve had some sleep .I may be in a state to debate Rugby again.

Thanks - a good read and certainly educated me. Whatever happens at this WC (and yes we all know that the realities of cup competition don't always follow form) there will be a new look to both NZ and SA rugby, young players, new coaches and a 4N's competition to look forward to.

Great article Alan. What intrigues me is the paths taken after '49. We've gone up % wise whilst SA have come down. Clearly a few lessons were learnt from that tour (one of which don't play two different countries on the same day).

I grew up in the isolation era, was only 1 in 81, so all I knew about SA rugby were from books and stories told. I was so excited in 92, the resumption of the greatest rivalry world rugby may ever know, long may it continue.

To me, SA will always remain the old enemy and our most respected opponent.

Chewed Mintie,the point of my article was to illustrate,there is or was
NOTHING much between the teams.It is genarally considered that when
the All Blacks,had forwards,and a Scrummage plus a reliable goal kicker.
They could compete on even terms,in 1921,and 1928 both sides had scrums,and game plans built around it.
After the 2-3-2 scrum was outlawed,the 3-4-1 scrum had different
dynamics,and gameplans.
The defeats of 1935 and 1937, MAY have been influenced BUT the England,
Wales,and SA teams were GREAT ones.
In 1949,TWO great sides met,once the 3-4-1 scrum was fixed courtesy of Dr Craven[could you see a modern coach do that?] the Packs were about equal.The difference in the two sides was the goal kicking,bare in mind
kicking conditions in SA are different especially on the high veld.Also the
balls were differentfrom Country to Country,SA used a 8 panel one in those days[illegal now],no kicking tees or special boots then.
The ONLY Coach who MAY have made a difference Viv Cavanagh Jun. was not PC to NZ selectors.
From 1950,the All Blacks ,adopted the" Otago game" built around the Ruck,a
3-3-2 loose scrum,where the 5/8 system and all the ploys used pre 1935 were available again.
From then on they had a settled team game plan,with it they lost only one series home or away in 15 years.
It is important to remember that in the days of Tours,over28-32 matches
both Sa and Nz tours to each other.
Included a mini-tour of Australia[Lions also] maybe 3 provincial matches and two tests.When they reached Sa or Nz they would have maybe 6 matches before the First Test,then maybe 3 or 4 between each of the 4 tests.
Teams like Otago,or Northern Traansval for example in tour eras would be bristling with All Blacks or Boks,not the weakened ones met on modern Lions tours at least[2009]. In 1950 the Great Lions and Wales lock Roy John
stated the Otago pack was the greatest he had ever faced,and included the All Blacks that year.
When you toured it was one side versus maybe 24 of various strengths so
injuries were prevalent among touring sides.
As an example on the 1959,tour of NZ,Lions full back,Ken Scotland played every back row position bar scrum half due to injuries.
What I am trying to get across is stats only tell so much,if I had included pre 1903 stats in SA Amateur period % drops to for pre 1949 to about 64%
in reality there stats give or take a couple of percent are practically a straight line.
AS to playing two matches on one day,had a squad based on the
players of both squads been availble to play for pC reasons,then
MAYBE half those tests would have been won.
It is tempting to try and rewrite histories ,by using ifs or buts,record books
just show wins and losses.IF full strength Bok sides had contested in 2007.and this year,MAYBE anoth er 5 wins would have registered to them not losses and the stats would have changed.
THE main factor is when touring usually Home side won series 3-1 ,or 2-1,
in the pro era,it has been home and away on a regular basis.
Teams that travel best ABs[43%]have been relatively more successful,what I am trying to get over is stats,only tell half the story andI have tried to rectify that.

I find it interesting that the most succesful teams had monster packs and great kickers throught history. Right up till '07 it's been the case that playing the percentage and then kicking your goals is the way to go when ever it's knock out rugby.

Just now though that seems to have changed, while NZ are an exceptional team i'd say they neither have the monster pack or the metronomic kicker.

Is rugby getting away from pecentage game plans in knock out games? Or will NZ revert to this? Or will they stay as they are and lose?

So many questions, it'll be interesting to find out.

Hi,Biltong back and fighting fit,your prognosis MAY be right,BUT if both teams had available all there players match fit.
In 2008,2009,2010 I doubt they would have dominated given the strength of the All Blacks side.
2008 had Thorn not been banned and Ali Williams injured that test would
Probably have gone the All Blacks way.
Even money bet neither 2009,or 2010 would have been 3zip either side,you can`t rewrite history sadly to prove theories.
The Boks have incredibly skilled players like Franz Steyn ,and Pierre Spies BUT where do you play them,Spies isn`t a loose forward.,Steyn never seen him have a really decent game.Don`t doubt his skills but wheredo youplay him.Heinrich Broussow the latest McCaw beater in 2009,frankly he never was McCaw fully match fit is a class apart others have.parts of his game like Pocock and Broussow
Juan Smith ,whatever number he wears is nearest,Broussow is good but does`nt really suit Bok typical Back row play,

yappysnappy,ALL BLACKS have a formidable pack Woodcock,The Brothers Grimm .plus Mealamu and Hore are an excellent front row,AliWilliams Whitelock and Thorn ,all great locks.Back row Kaino,Read,Mccaw,Thomson great back row.Mike Cron worlds best scrum coach
They go on about the Aussie backs,but this All Blacks back division is outstanding too.
Dan Carter may not be a metronomic kicker,but often is 100%.Weepu is a consistent kicker.Dagg if played and kicking is in the 86% league best kicker in NZ or was.
Dan Carter is short of match practice,but his kicking game is vastly improved
All Blacks are not just for RWCs there for EVER.

Hi Alan, when I talk about dominate I don't necessarily mean the All Blacks. If you look at Ireland in 2009, France and Scotland in 2010, plus our home tests of the Tri Ntions in2010, those are five tests we should have won. It would have been possible if we had a forward thinking coach. Add to that our match vs Oz last weekend would have been 6 wins and then have given us a win rate of 66% plus, rather than the poor win ratio PDV have now.

If someone turns Pierre Spies into a center he will be able to use his physique and speed more effective, in my opnion Frans steyn is best at 12, he has a huge presence in the midfield on defence, his combination with Jaque Fourie in the last world cup proves that, being outside the flyhalff gives him more opportunities, he is bigger, stronger, younger and more creative than Jean de Villiers and post rwc that is where I would like to see him

Nice alan.the recent %s are really hurting SA alright.
pdvs tenure has certainly hurt them.
Hes just not good at developing or recognising new players.
For SA it is certainly harder to get out of this team and i wonder if hes scared to drop them.
Id hate to think whats in store for pdv in his retirement though his legacy will note the wins of 2009 3N and the lions tour.
As far as the stats go we really only start from 1903 against oz.. Anything before that was largely the 1888 natives as they were called with joe warbrick and his 4 brothers. They had a very good record too.
Be amazing if SA win this wcup. I mean what that say to us all?

Taylorman, I seriously doubt we`ll even get close

biltongbek

I agree that Frans is a natural 12... but I think the boks are better with JDV at 12 and Frans at 15 then lets say

Frans at 12 & Aplon/Kirchner at 15..... maybe Lambie though.

Problem for Frans is he is not fit and is about 10kg to heavy... really bad show by both him and SA Rugby for not keeping his fitness up.

FA, good evening. My only concern with JDV is he isn`t very creative, maybe if Patrick Lambie is inside JDV he will get more space to be creative.

I agree Frans is overweight, But that is how the French sent him back to us.

About Steyn, I think that maybe his tremendous boot is a curse that doesn't let him play his best position of 12. To be able to drop goals from halfway is scary and teams would kick shallower to ensure he doesn't get a crack. However this means the best lineout in the world will give the Boks a platform in opposition territory. I'm not sure PDV can get over his boot to give him a crack there to be honest. I'm not sure if Steyn can get rid of those millefeuilles he scoffed down in Paris either.

Ja, he needs a "boere" diet, lot's of red meat, little vegetables, lots of beer, and sunshine.

Here's my 2 cents / pence (whatever your currency is):
I don't think that PDV and his coaching staff have been able to completely settle on what brand of rugby they intend to play. Over the last few years they have oscillated between stereotypical 10-man bok rugby and a desire to play some sort of fast running game. Hence they haven't properly cultivated a group of players to fit a specific strategy. Now that the RWC is fast approaching it looks to me that they've simply decided to revert to the strategy and players that worked in the last RWC (because they haven't really got anything else).

With regards to playing Lambie at centre/flyhalf/fullback I fear that he will become another jack of all trades and master of none, in the same fashion as Ruan Pienaar (who I don't feel has lived up to his potential because he's never been allowed to settle into one position. I mean would Dan Carter be as mercurial as he is if he had spebt the last five years alternating between all the backline positions in every match?)

MR fishpaste,at a similar time as Lambie now,Dan Carter ,was playing wing,full back,centre,and fly half ,even did a cameo.
He played for Canterbury,Crusaders,All Blacks in 3 seperate positions at the same time.

I don't think Carter is mercurial at all-I think he is consistently excellent, as opposed to Spencer and Cooper who are most definitely mercurial. You're right about Carter being settled at 10 though. Even though he started at 12 once he moved in he's pretty much stayed there apart from a few halves back in midfield.

I'd like to see Lambie given a full season at 10-if he has the selectors' faith then that would be a big plus in his development.

Carter not mercurial?

Come on disney, the man is the quintessential fly half, he is the only flyhalf in world rugby (my opinion) that has a running game, kicking game, and defensive game.

You lookk at Cooper and Spencer, they were never mercurial, they had moments of absolute brilliance, but for every moment of brilliance there was and is in coopers case a blunder. The reason for this is that they play ricky rugby and whenever you play risk rugby, one of two things happen, it comes off as a brilliant piece of individual play or flops.

Carter has the ability to make very few mistakes and that is because he thinks and assesses a situation faster than any other flyhalf, thus taking calculated risks.

If you think back to Henry honiball, he could do two of those things well, he could defend like a trojan and attack or create, but didn't have a boot.

Cooper, can attack and on his day execute the tactical kicks very well, but is not near the same class as Carter with goal kicking or defence.

Spencer himself didn't have all three.

So in my view, I can't remember a fly half with carter's ability.

I have watched Carlos Spencer play many games of rugby, especially in his days at the Blues,and like mercury he changes with temperature , and we see this also in Quade Cooper.
I think the point being ,made by Disney that that Lambie could develop in to a player more in the lines of Carter,has a lot of merit,but only as he says if he is given the opportunity to specialise in the one position.

aucklandlaurie, I have confidence that the next coach will know this.

We have had far too many players in SA never reaching their potential because of that blunder.

Biltong
Yes you dont need all us lot telling you what is best for South African rugby,when does SA review the coaching position next?

I am sure it will be differently handled this time. I have a feeling that the ANC will politely demand that PDV must remain.

It will be followed by some political manoevering by SARU and then evebtually based on the recent poor performances of the Boks which I think will continue during the world cup SARU will get rid of him by Feb 17 next year.

Followed by an uproar from government reinstating official quota demands in sport

Biltong mercurial to me implies instability and volatility, as in Cooper and Spencer. As in mercury the element. I think the word is often misused-it shouldn't be necessary seen as a compliment (this is my linguistics education making me seem like a geek here so apologies on being so). Carter doesn't vary IMO-he's consistently fantastic and now probably the best 10 I've seen. He is as good as Cooper and Spencer on their best days-at the very least.

I don't think it's having the total package, rather being up and down in performance.

Here's hoping the Boks get a better deal soon so they get closer to their full potential.

Well I'm no linguist, perhaps majestic would then be more appropriate.

But I do agree Carter for me any day of the week and twice on Saturdays.

We can only hope Lambie is allowed to prosper at 10

Juan Smith out of the world cup for you guys. Terrible for the guy.

Yeah, I just read about it. I feel for the man, his whole season he has been plagued by injury. We will seriously miss him, he was my player of the tournament in2007.

I would expect Willem Alberts to be his replacement

Biltong,sorry to hear it ,I don`t care for RWCS but at least you want your best players available.As an aside Danny Care for England misses out too,
Elsom sacked as Wallaby skipper,which is goodBut I thought Sharpe and Vickerman were going to be first choice locks.Also Benn Robinson has made the right decision going for surgery,shame for him an OZ though.
AS to the mercuri al Carter bit,as the laws have been changed or refereed
has adapted his game.Its still evolving,TED wants a Drop Kicker he`s got one,you want grubbers its there.Tackling few better,defensively aware,cleans out rucks and more.
Problems with the modern game,and this includes my thesis in this,the way the game is played.
Players ,now playing 36 or so games a year,means more injuries.more resting,weaker sides,skewing win /loss stats ABs rarely field weakened sides.
Other sides with lesser resources are forced to do so making victories easier and creating stastical anomalies.
By the way Taylorman , I did`nt cover the Maori Native side though they
wore Black too they were`nt All Blacks.Incidentally Bok rugby was`nt dead from 1982 .They were still playing internationals till 1989 ,including the Cavaliers in 1986.
Many Bok supporters on the strength of the Cavaliers series state,they would have won 1987 and 1991 RWCS [claimed on original 606 board].
Which is VERY debatable the All Blacks side was strong,had evolved the driving maul to such point ,Laws had to be changed to stop them dominating world Rugby as they did so for nearly four years.Australia were strong too.
They did`nt have Home advantage or side being softened up by every provincial side in between tests.
In 1991 they would`nt have had a prayer,they lost to both All Blacks and Oz in 1992,and it was a further 3 years before they nicked a close final after
extra time.
Like 2003,hardly decisive both games decided by a last minute dropped goal.Merths missed Stransky did`nt.Larkham missed JW did`nt end of.
I alway believe teams go in cycles,usually post RWCs many players leave there teams and a new generation continues.
The likes of Lambie and Alberts are the future of Bok Rugby,there will be a lot of new All Blacks ones too and the wheel will turn again.
Long may it continue.

Yeah, we now have two of our very best out of the RWC.

Andries Bekker and Juan Smith.

[quote="emack2"]yappysnappy,ALL BLACKS have a formidable pack Woodcock,The Brothers Grimm .plus Mealamu and Hore are an excellent front row,AliWilliams Whitelock and Thorn ,all great locks.Back row Kaino,Read,Mccaw,Thomson great back row.Mike Cron worlds best scrum coach
They go on about the Aussie backs,but this All Blacks back division is outstanding too.
Dan Carter may not be a metronomic kicker,but often is 100%.Weepu is a consistent kicker.Dagg if played and kicking is in the 86% league best kicker in NZ or was.
Dan Carter is short of match practice,but his kicking game is vastly improved
All Blacks are not just for RWCs there for EVER.[/quote]

It might just be my memory but their pack doesn't seem like it would stand up to an atritional game against the Boks of '07 or England of '03. Of course the current NZ team wouldn't be playing an attritional game against them as they have the players to hump them all over the park.

I'd say this NZ team is the most 'complete' of a long time.

And I love that final sentence! They should make a t-shirt of it.

Yappy snap,If memory serves the 2003 All Blacks side was lightweight by the best All Blacks standards.BUT goal kicking was the difference in both of there matches with England.Had Andrew Merthens played the full 80 in both matches.England would probably have lost certainly in one where Spencer missed 4 straight forward penalties. results were 3 and 2points loss for the ABs.Respectable against best England side in 10 years
Also they beat the Boks three times that year including scoring two 50
points wins in the 3Ns to both OZ and SA. a week apart AWAY.
2007 they beat the Boks twice ,the first match versus the full strength Bok side AWAY.
That was when Jake White threw in the cannon fodder because he knew the 3Ns was blown.
Neither England or Boks met ABs in 2003 or 2007 RWCs respectively so it`s academic.
Even money bet the all Blacks would have won both or either we`ll never know will we?

Sorry 2003All Blacks PACK was what I meant by the best all Black standards.