Can Wales beat South Africa?

by krusty Sun 21 Aug 2011, 10:37 am

First topic message reminder :

Can Wales beat South Africa in their first game at the world cup?

Wales have come close on many occasions since their only victory over them in 1999. It seems to be a psychological blip even worse than the one that prevented Wales from beating England for all those years.

South Africas results haven't been the best of late & only managed to beat a 2nd string NZ side yesterday.

I think Wales can do it, but it will require a lot of things to go right for them. If the Welsh lineout is anything like it was against England or Argentina then we have no hope. Why they don't just throw it to the first man to secure possession is beyond me? The front 5 will need to be extremely aggressive & we will need at least SOME level of creativity between the centres. We can be confident in our back row. I think we should keep faith in Faletau he is the man in possession of the 8 shirt & he is full of enthusiasm and likes to go forward. Full back is going to be an extremely difficult decision as we will need someone who can cope with the boot of Francois Steyn. I would probably go with Preistland at 15 as he seems the most composed at the moment.

Even though I think that Hook should start at 10, we have serious problems in the centres. Defensively we are good, but there doesn't seem to be enough intelligence or spark between Davies & Roberts at the moment (Although Davies's inside pass to North yesterday was sublime). You would want someone like Hook or Henson at 12 & now we don't even have Henson. I think Roberts is more effective at 13 so I would want to see this midfield...

IF HOOK STARTS AT 10

10. HOOK
12. DAVIES
13. ROBERTS

IF JONES STARTS AT 10

10. JONES
12. HOOK
13. ROBERTS

I definitely want to see North brought in as much as possible, running angles or acting as another outside centre. He is a big weapon.

by **Biltong** Sun 21 Aug 2011, 7:03 pm

Maestegmafia, are you aware of the fact that on the away leg we played a B team, and when I say B team, i am being very nice to them.

Then based on our two last matches, we should not have lost to australia. We missed a sitter, declined three kickable penalties and messed up three tries.

Based on results alone we have lost 3 and won 1. But if we start looking at circumstances and as GavinDragon pointed out, we played the two best team in the world.

This happens every year before the autumn tests, who ever faired worst in the Tri Nations everyone believes they can beat. It is just a case of remebering whom they have lost too.

Look, I have said many a times PDV is a problem and he has stagnated our gameplan in a time when laws have changed.

But there is nothing wrong with our players when they take a match seriously.

Our record against NZ can attest to that, 4 out of 8 wins since 2009. not to shabby even if I say so myself. Yes we do have poor games, such as Scotland end of last year. but believe me, come RWC, there will be no lack of motivation and intensity from our players.

by GavinDragon Sun 21 Aug 2011, 7:08 pm

i just hope you guys do have a poor game on september 11th! Run

by **Biltong** Sun 21 Aug 2011, 7:20 pm

GavinDragon wrote:i just hope you guys do have a poor game on september 11th!

and for a moment there, i thought you were on my side. Shocked

by GavinDragon Sun 21 Aug 2011, 7:26 pm

haha no not at all my friend, you talk alot of sense and i do not share the blind optimism of some of my compatriots, however im still welsh so i still hope (i feel rather in vein) that we beat you in september, but anywho best of luck Ale

by **Biltong** Sun 21 Aug 2011, 7:30 pm

I personally think Wales can beat Fiji and Namibia, Fiji just doesn't seam to be such a big threat after the Pacific Nations cup.

Samoa, SA and Wales should fight it out for the two qualifying positions and to me looks like quite a physical group.

So good luck ( just not too much)

by TycroesOsprey Sun 21 Aug 2011, 7:33 pm

In 2007 the boks came bottom of teh tri nations and won the world cup, PDV is trying the Jake White plan for this world cup. The problem is that JW was a great coach PDV is not. The Boks could be the best side in the world but PDV really looks clueless. Personally I think the boks are there for the taking but England fansd said that before the opening or the last world cup and I remember what happened to them Very Happy

.

Biltong how happy is that bok camp?

by mckay1402 Sun 21 Aug 2011, 7:37 pm

I have been resisting getting involved in this and while i agree that historically Wales have struggled to beat South Africa I think that this Wales team will go in with a lot of confidence and must believe they can win. It will be a big ask but i do believe they will come away with the greatest win of any of their careers.

by **Biltong** Sun 21 Aug 2011, 7:40 pm

TycroesOsprey wrote:In 2007 the boks came bottom of teh tri nations and won the world cup, PDV is trying the Jake White plan for this world cup. The problem is that JW was a great coach PDV is not. The Boks could be the best side in the world but PDV really looks clueless. Personally I think the boks are there for the taking but England fansd said that before the opening or the last world cup and I remember what happened to them .

Biltong how happy is that bok camp?

To be honest, The SA Sports committe asked PDV the same question, insinuating that the players do not seem happy. He answered the question in an evasive manner.

I wrote a piece earlier in the week, entitled Parliamentary report, SARU meeting with Sports Committe 2 aug.

You might want to read it, that will give you as much info as I could find on the "behind the scenes" scenario.

by TycroesOsprey Sun 21 Aug 2011, 7:41 pm

linky?

by **Biltong** Sun 21 Aug 2011, 7:43 pm

TycroesOsprey wrote:linky?

https://www.606v2.com/t11866-parliamentary-report-meeting-held-2-august-2011-between-saru-and-sa-sport-committee

by RubyGuby Sun 21 Aug 2011, 7:55 pm

SA by 15 and a reality check for Wales awaits. Its gonna be 80 minutes of intensity and controlled rugby. In the past 6 years with 2 grand slams the most I've seen in one game from Wales is 40 minutes of what is needed. Wales are looking useful but they will have to bully SA up front and be in the face of their half backs and far nastier than I have seen to date. Bakkies and Matfield are on a different planet to the welsh 2nd row. Bradley v Bakkies - Good luck Brad.
Come on Walessssssssssssssssssss!! thumbsup

by manofgwent Sun 21 Aug 2011, 8:13 pm

Wales aren't going to beat SA.
Wales couldn't beat a 2nd string springbok team last summer, who'd only arrived 3 days before the game and to say that Wales' team was largely changed is very inaccurate. Byrne, halfpenny, Roberts, hook, the dynamic Stephen jones, sideways jones, Phillips, Warburton, Bradley, AWJ, Adam jones, Matthew Rees., Paul James.
Wales' 2nd game against Samoa is our true test. The game is sold out and it's going to feel like an away match, with 75% of the crowd being Samoans. If we can win that. Then I believe we'll make the quarters. Where we'll be soundly beaten by the wallabies.
I wouldn't read too much into the tri nations. As with every nation. They're all trying to find a blend of winning games, without losing players to injury.

by gavstar Sun 21 Aug 2011, 8:38 pm

PLEASE !!! whoever plays 10 KICK LONG TO TOUCH, make them play out of their half, DONT KEEP THE BALL ON THE PARK BY GIFTING THEM WITH KICKS, it doesn't and hasn't worked since this tactic has been used WE ARE THE ONLY TEAM STILL DOING IT, EVERYONE ELSE HAS MOVED ON !!!!!!

by Shifty Sun 21 Aug 2011, 8:46 pm

manofgwent wrote:Wales' 2nd game against Samoa is our true test. The game is sold out and it's going to feel like an away match, with 75% of the crowd being Samoans. If we can win that. Then I believe we'll make the quarters. Where we'll be soundly beaten by the wallabies.
I wouldn't read too much into the tri nations. As with every nation. They're all trying to find a blend of winning games, without losing players to injury.

I think Wales will be ok against Fiji and Samoa simply because we have very prissy referees for those games. The only way Samoa and Fiji can knock Wales off their stride is to play aggressive and dirty and Barnes and Rowlands will not allow it. I think it will be hard going and Wales may well be behind at half time but I think they will over come both teams.

by gavstar Sun 21 Aug 2011, 9:24 pm

Anyone else agree with going for touch instead of gifting the ball?

by RubyGuby Sun 21 Aug 2011, 9:26 pm

Going for touch with Bakkies and Matfield Headscratch

Kick long by all means and then get up tight in defence and make the first up tackles and take it from there - Get North running at their small wingers - Take them on, we neeed 7 Norths 7 Warburtons and Adam if we are going to achieve this thumbsup

by gavstar Sun 21 Aug 2011, 9:38 pm

At least they will have to work harder coming from their own half after winning a lineout, instead of the usual catching our kick in the middle of the park and steaming ahead, we've less control over their response with in field kicks than giving them a lineout. I still think we are the only team still predictably chosing the in field option.
Watch this tactic ruin it for us, if we did have a chance that is !!

by manofgwent Sun 21 Aug 2011, 9:44 pm

Alyn. The only way Fiji or saniaxcan beat Wales is to be aggressive or dirty? I don't recall Fiji being dirty in November or 4 years ago. With the way our set-piece is, we'll struggle to dominate. Our win last week was with little ball and possession I think the Samoan game will be wide open and let's not forget, these boys can play rugby.

by **Biltong** Sun 21 Aug 2011, 9:48 pm

RubyGuby wrote:Going for touch with Bakkies and Matfield Kick long by all means and then get up tight in defence and make the first up tackles and take it from there - Get North running at their small wingers - Take them on, we neeed 7 Norths 7 Warburtons and Adam if we are going to achieve this

Small wingers?

Have you seen JP Pietersen and Habana, Not the smallest out there

by Cymroglan Sun 21 Aug 2011, 9:54 pm

Bryan Habana
Height 1.80 m (5 ft 11 in)
Weight94 kg (14 st 11 lb)
JP Pietersen
Height 1.90 m (6 ft 3 in)
Weight 95 kg (14 st 13 lb
George North
Height 6ft4
Weight 16st 7 lbs

by RubyGuby Sun 21 Aug 2011, 9:55 pm

Pitersen, Habana, Aplon

HAVE YOU SEEN GEORGE NORTH!!! AND HES STILL GROWING RedWine

by **Biltong** Sun 21 Aug 2011, 10:01 pm

That only proves he is bigger than them, Aplon is small, Williams is small.

Did you see those two defend this weekend against an All Black backline all the size of North?

by RubyGuby Sun 21 Aug 2011, 10:02 pm

I saw them try to defend against him on his debut when he was 18 thumbsup

by maestegmafia Sun 21 Aug 2011, 10:03 pm

GavinDragon wrote:haha no not at all my friend, you talk alot of sense and i do not share the blind optimism of some of my compatriots, however im still welsh so i still hope (i feel rather in vein) that we beat you in september, but anywho best of luck

Optimism is never blind. Faith often is though.

by nottins Sun 21 Aug 2011, 10:08 pm

maestegmafia wrote:
Optimism is never blind. Faith often is though.

It is indeed.

maestegmafia wrote:It will be close but Wales are the favourites in this group on current form.

by Draigoch Sun 21 Aug 2011, 10:16 pm

Certainly we can win. In the last 3 matches between us the difference has been less than 5 points in each. Notably, we still didn't win.

So we need to play better. Simple really. Can we? Yes. Will we? Fudge knows.

I'm certainly not someone who regards them as beasts who we are honored to share the same hallowed turf with though. That's bull of the finest order. However bad PdV is there's only so much damage he can do to players with so much class. Should be a good game!

by **Biltong** Sun 21 Aug 2011, 10:19 pm

When was his debut? Last year June?

by nottins_jones Sun 21 Aug 2011, 10:22 pm

Biltong, Norths debut was against you guys in the autumn of last year. Probably our best chance to beat South Africa (and it weren't a B team at all before you pick up on that again!); so I can't really see us beating them in NZ either.

by RubyGuby Sun 21 Aug 2011, 10:22 pm

C'mon Biltong, you don't do naive - Anyways for what its worth it'll be SA by 15 IMO come Sept. Or maybe, just maybe we'll see egg

But I doubt it thumbsup

by **Biltong** Sun 21 Aug 2011, 10:32 pm

nottins_jones wrote:Biltong, Norths debut was against you guys in the autumn of last year. Probably our best chance to beat South Africa (and it weren't a B team at all before you pick up on that again!); so I can't really see us beating them in NZ either.

That is unfair, I have already stated that the rushed test after the super xiv was 11 players of not being first choice. But that ahs nothing to do with the discussion I am having with Rubyguby. I am on my phone now and can't check up when was Norths debut, and am trying to figure out when it was, and whether he in fact have faced Habana or JP.

The point is they aren't small wings

by nottins_jones Sun 21 Aug 2011, 10:39 pm

Well you said it earlier about the last two tests we played. The one in which you speak of (the rushed test not long after the Super XV) I agree with you, the one in which North made his debut was the best SA team(at that time). I also agree that Habana and Pietersen aren't small wingers. But looking at JP 6ft 3 seems a little incorrect; somebody else stated this was his height not you.

by RubyGuby Sun 21 Aug 2011, 10:41 pm

It doesnt matter if they're small he can eat large ones as well - He scored 2 trys on his debut against you guys bursting through midfield - He is a talent and along with Adam Jones, Warburton and Roberts is a player who would probably get into the Bok side now. Wales

by **Biltong** Sun 21 Aug 2011, 10:44 pm

So what are you arguing about then? I asked a question about when his debut was and wether he has faced them, you answerted so now I can go check and see whether he beat them or had open space.

by Draigoch Sun 21 Aug 2011, 10:47 pm

Warbuton vs Brussow....crikey..

by RubyGuby Sun 21 Aug 2011, 10:51 pm

biltongbek wrote:So what are you arguing about then? I asked a question about when his debut was and wether he has faced them, you answerted so now I can go check and see whether he beat them or had open space.

You do make me laugh though - open space Very Happy

- Maybe he ghosted into the open space leaving the defenders wrong footed RedWine

by Cymroglan Sun 21 Aug 2011, 11:02 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O63ttfrDC50

by **Biltong** Sun 21 Aug 2011, 11:13 pm

Cymroglan wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O63ttfrDC50

Thanks for the link, so North is a talented individual who ran a great angle in a most likely rehearsed move executed perfectly running into the gap untouched to score his first try, his second try is a crossfield well placed kick and he collects the ball well to score his second.

So to get back to the original point of having him run straight at our small wings...

Yeah I see where that came from.

by RubyGuby Sun 21 Aug 2011, 11:17 pm

by maestegmafia Sun 21 Aug 2011, 11:44 pm

George North

6 Tries in 8 Tests, 2 tries against SA, 1 against Baabaa's, 2 against England and 1 against Argentina.

by nganboy Mon 22 Aug 2011, 2:28 am

I think despite all your arguing the voting is clearly telling us what most people think.
Looking to be a fairly comfortable win for SA.
I concur. I wonder if any non Welsh fans think Wales have more than a logical chance.

by kingjohn7 Mon 22 Aug 2011, 6:11 am

[/quote]
Now could you please explain how i dismissed the Lions?

I used that match because Welshjohn was telling me about the Springbok team then being a better one than the current team.[/quote]
whilst the 3rd test was not a full springbok team the first 2 were and were stronger than the present team. like i said, i think that lions team were the equal of them. if Wales play like that(unlikely) then i would expect a comfortable win in RWC.

by **Biltong** Mon 22 Aug 2011, 6:34 am

Kingjohn, the first wto tests are almost to a man the same team as we will send to the RWC.

You still have not answered me on the alligation you made.

Where did I dismiss the Lions team?

by TycroesOsprey Mon 22 Aug 2011, 10:24 am

That was a good article Biltong thanks for the link. Sadly it confirms what I thought that the boks biggest problem at the moment is within the camp. PDV is the Gareth Jenkins of SARU.

by kultschar Mon 22 Aug 2011, 12:18 pm

Sheesh, love my fellow countryman's optimism and I hope we do pull it off but.....

Are people seriously happy with the performance over the last few games? Take out the win factor and the Wales team would be getting ripped apart in the press.

The second England game in Cardiff - In the first half it was such a one sided battering in our own half. Any of the Tri Teams would have scored 4-5 tries in this period.

Argentina - the first 30 mins they were the better team. Argentina are not even 5% the team they were in 2007 and I would put them on par or below Italy now.

It was fantastic to get the wins, yes we are going to the World Cup on a high etc however I think Gatland is a seriously lucky man at the moment and just traded in his get out of jail cards. If we play like we have done in each first half over the last 3 games I think we will have 20 plus points on us before half time and there won't be such comebacks against the likes of a SA team in the WC.

The November Internationals are just a money spinner for the Southern Hemisphere teams, they don't really want to be there, you can tell that by their body language. We get close on the scoreboard to a knackered end of season squad who are obliged to turn up and we still get turned over. The last game against SA we blew a big lead over a B team who basically just turned up, don't be fooled that this is going to be anything like the WC

I think this is the most exciting Wales squad I can remember but something with the setup just is not right, and the last few games I have been surprised how clinical our back line is but I'm far from convinced about our overall strength and performances. We were never going to lose against the Argies but I feel we were very fortunate in our own Stadium against an average England and the win papers over quite a few cracks

by nottins_jones Mon 22 Aug 2011, 12:28 pm

kultschar, who needs the opposition with 'fans' like yourself eh...

by kultschar Mon 22 Aug 2011, 12:35 pm

nottins_jones wrote:kultschar, who needs the opposition with 'fans' like yourself eh...

Ha - I knew that was coming!!!!!

Ecstatic with the wins I really really am however feel more lucky then anything. I know my post will upset people but that outrageous domination by a clueless England on our try line for what feels like an entire half factored in with the last few 6 Nations really haunts me.

The mistakes against an Argie team who have played 16 times since 2007 makes me shiver at night Rolling Eyes

by nottins Mon 22 Aug 2011, 12:36 pm

Well said Kultschar. At last a Wales fan talking sense without his leek tinted spetacles on.

by nottins_jones Mon 22 Aug 2011, 1:01 pm

kultschar, you're too much of a negative guy. Our team is well drilled, better than they ever have been by the looks of it. Look on the bright side, it's nice to score tries and win with limited posession. Something England can't do either of Wink

.

by OzT Mon 22 Aug 2011, 1:04 pm

Draigoch wrote:Warbuton vs Brussow....crikey..

Wasn't Brussow injured Saturday and may be out for a while?

by kultschar Mon 22 Aug 2011, 1:18 pm

nottins_jones wrote:kultschar, you're too much of a negative guy. Our team is well drilled, better than they ever have been by the looks of it. Look on the bright side, it's nice to score tries and win with limited posession. Something England can't do either of .

Well I did say earlier in my post it was a nice surprise to see the backs clicking. Its the possession that I'm worried about, we don't seem to have any of it however at least we are clinical on the odd occasion that we do go forward.

Im hoping Adam Jones will now steady things and something magical happens with our line out.

Im not 100% negative as I've just bought both home and away shirts lol

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