Ulster 2011-2012: Wherefore art thou, silverware?

First topic message reminder :

I thought in the midst of the tumultuous dayglo distraction of the RWC that I would seize a moment to ruminate on Ulster’s upcoming Pro 12 and HEC seasons. If nothing else, it will be interesting to look back on this further down the line and see if I hit any targets. I am going to try to make this a fairly sober, cold-light-of-day assessment, centred on the head, not the heart.

I think this will be a season of consolidation. I don’t expect us to do as well in the race for silverware as last season.

My reasoning is pretty straightforward. In the latter half of the season, I expect us to have a seriously good first 22/23. Ferris, Muller, Pienaar, Trimble, Payne, Afoa (assuming they replicate their Southern form) - they are players that would grace most Pro 12 starting line-ups. I am delighted to have Muller as captain this season - between him, Best, and Pienaar we have a whole patchwork of players with leadership ability. Come match-day, we will give anyone a game.

However, even beyond the usual injury concerns that trouble every team (and Ferris will have to be managed with some care), we will have a lot of issues in man management. At the core of the issue is the fact that we have close to - if not the - smallest squad in the Pro 12, to say nothing of the HEC. A lot of extremely talented young players on development contracts (Jackson, Marshall, Annett and so on), but as I understand it, we have 33 on full-time contracts. That’s nothing. Our squad was already painfully small last season, and we lost Cunningham and Pollock to injury. And look at the ins and outs:

IN: Black, Stevenson, Afoa, Payne, McComish
OUT: Young, Anderson, O’Connor, Caldwell, McCrea, Seymour, Smith, Botha, McIlwane

So our squad is even smaller this year. I think we are going to miss squad players like McCrea, Seymour and Smith. Seymour and McCrea, in particular, could do a job at Magners’ level.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Munster won the last Magners League and they had the largest squad in the competition. I think their win-loss ratio was a testament to the number of players they had that could do a solid job and wouldn’t let the side down. I’m not talking about the O’Connells, the Earls or the Howletts of this world, or even the bright young hopes such as Nagle, but the Coughlans, Mick O’Driscolls and Hurleys..

The following players will be away at the RWC (I lazily predict) - Court, Best, Ferris, Wallace and Trimble for Ireland, Pienaar for South Africa and Danielli for Scotland. Afoa I’m not sure about, but on the expectation that he would be, his contract doesn’t start until December. That’s eight out of thirty-three. Of course it’s an opportunity for youngsters to step up, and we do have some exciting youngsters, but given the very nature of callow youth, it’ll be a hit-and-miss few months for us at the start of the season. Every team is in the same boat, of course, but most other teams have more depth. An injury to Cave and D’Arcy during that period and we could be looking at a Jackson-Allen-Marshall-Spence-Gilroy-Gaston backline. How much would you give to be able to put McCrea or Seymour in there, and lessen the reliance on players who wouldn’t get served in a pub? I am excited to see how these guys do, but I’m not confident that the wins will come, to be brutally honest.

What will make or break us is whether our second-seasoners stand up. McAllister, Faloon, Spence, Gilroy, D’Arcy. Add to that the guys that are evolving into our warhorses - Henry and Cave.

Where we are really thin is at wing and back row. We need Diack to stay consistent this season, and assert himself a bit more. We need Faloon to progress. Because Ferris will be a relatively rare commodity, assuming he makes it back from the RWC in one piece. And if Gilroy gets injured during the RWC or the Six Nations, we are in serious trouble. Same goes for iHumph til Pienaar and Wallace get back - Jackson’s most definitely on the right road, but he’s just started along it. (On the other hand, we are laughing at hooker, second row and centre.)

What does matter to me - and what stops this pessimism making my head drop - is that I do feel there is A Plan. We are building towards something, both literally and figuratively. Our NIQs are completely on a different level to those we had a few years ago (Schifcofske? Horua?) Youth is being blooded, experience is being brought in where we lack. There are three sharp brains that are shaping and sculpting Ulster Rugby - Logan, Humphreys and McLaughlin. And that process doesn’t happen overnight And that might mean that this season, results-wise, feels like a bit of a step backwards. I’m prepared for that. We are growing something special. If, as he seemed to let slip, Pienaar has already signed an extension, that means every one of our NIQs is happy and wants to stay and help re-make Ulster rugby. (Botha, as I understand it, wanted to stay but played silly buggers about money, and was told to go.) These are seasoned internationals that are doing a lot more than playing eighty minutes on a rugby pitch of a week. Payne has already spoken in interviews about being keen to take on a mantle of leadership amongst our backs and help them develop.

But back to this season. With an HEC group as tough as ours, and at this stage in our evolution, I can see us failing to make the knock-outs this year. A couple of tough learning experiences for the lads. As for the Rab C., I could see us missing out on the play-offs. I think the Dragons and possibly the Ospreys will be notably improved. Glasgow also, when their internationals return.

Having said that, if you’d have told me this time last year that we’d make the semi-finals of the Magners and quarters of the HEC, I’d have laughed in your face and told you to dream on. So what do I know?

Great win tonight!

Delighted with our defence and physicality- Jerry Cronin and Neil McComb take a bow! We really matched them in the set pieces and the tight five led the way. Very happy.

Really excellent performance and great intensity. Spence looks in good nick as does Cave. Henry at 8 and wannenburg at 6 looks good imo

Gilroy knocked it on I think! Said as much at the time.

Shows the worst moment of the night for Ulster- Monye shrugging off three weak tackles before their try.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LikNhx3STkk&feature=player_embedded&list=PL4A6C82BED62B86A1

Marshalls and Faloons tries were beautiful though. Ian Whitten is a guy who looked very good when he came on that we seem to have discounted. I think he'll play a big role this season. L. Marshall could be frustrated if he keeps that form up.

It's also worth saying just how much options the lines D'Arcy runs give us in attack. We're playing very much with our fullback as an attacking force and Jared Payne is going to love picking lines off the centres and acting as playmaker in the line.

I thought Gaston showed great physicality (that is a word) in the build up up to one of our tries. Looks like he comes from a similar mould as Trimble. Whitten is very underated in the Ulster set up and I think he got quite hard done by last season. Unless we have Wallace at 12 a lot of the time we'd skip Whitten when the ball got sent out to the backs. His contract is up at the end of the season right?

I don't know, but I hope we keep him. Nothing wrong at all with using him as a decoy to fix defenders though; very handy strategy. But what he's obviously worked on is his offloading game. A crash ball centre who can't/won't offload is pretty poor but one who can is a threat. Lovely offload to Faloon; thats how you break down defences.

I see him as a 13, not a 12, but thats just because of his style of play. We always look good with a more creative player at 12. We compensated for this on Friday by having Adam D'Arcy join the line in the centres and played off him. The balance of the backline looked good. Massive job on the hands of all our centres to make the team!

I have said it before but D'arcy is a player of massive potential. Gilroy did look a knock on but he deserved the break for some great footballing skill.
Whitten did well but i would still have him behind Marshall. The width we got on the ball early was the key to that try and D'arcy joins the line beautifully. Lovely offload from whitten.

I wonder will McLaughlin go with Spence and Cave at centre though. Gaston did what he had to do well but the time you are thinking of i think we ended up giving away the penalty willy.

Notch wrote:Springbok squad named in an hour or so. I'd be nearly certain that Pienaar will be in and Muller won't.

Our strongest team on paper would be;

1. Tom Court (WC)
2. Rory Best (WC)
3. John Afoa (WC)
4. Johann Muller (Inj)
5. Dan Tuohy (Inj)
6. Stephen Ferris (WC)
7. Chris Henry
8. Pedrie Wannenburg
9. Ruan Pienaar (WC)
10. Ian Humphreys (Inj)
11. Simon Danielli (WC)
12. Paddy Wallace (WC)
13. Darren Cave
14. Andrew Trimble (WC)
15. Jared Payne(late arrival)

Red is for players who are unavailable right now, green is for those who are. If Muller and Humphreys go from red to green we'll look a lot better but we are a good bit below strength at the moment unfortunately.

Still, I'm reasonably confident in the ability of the guys who are available; some really talented younger players and a few very experienced older guys still around. I'm reasonably confident we can steady the ship until we start getting some of these injured boys back on the field during the RWC period. I don't think there's much between Gilroy and Danielli, or Stevenson and Tuohy. We will be strong enough to compete with other weakened sides in this period.

Jebus, that's some team. If your Academy players can show their stuff and hold the fort for the 1st few weeks, I see a late challenge for the PRO12 as being a realistic aim. That would fortify next seasons effort. Its what set Leinster up 4 years back anyway. ASM & Tigers, in the HC are just what you need to show how far you have come. You need to measure and test yourselves against the best. There is no hiding if you want to really progress. Ulster are on the road to greater things. Infrastructure and team-building wise, Humphreys and your Board means business. You are in a good solid place.

Great read Don. Must do one for Leinster.

Just watched the highlights on bbc website, i have to say we look sharp and ready to go! P Marshall looked very shart (always forget how quick he is) i know highlights are not the best to judge players from but him, spence, gilroy and d'arcy looked all good!! Cant wait to get up to the hills of raven on friday night, april was a long time ago

There were a few things I'd be critical of, but I left Ravenhill in a very positive frame of mind and I remain positive ahead of the visit of Glasgow.

It was encouraging. Some turnovers, missed tackles and poor decisions but our outside backs looked really sharp, set piece performed well and we did well at the breakdown.

Definately stuff to work on but it was great. i mentioned it above but the Wannenburg, Faloon, Henry backrow looked good and particularly henry reverting to 8 where he made such a great impression in his first full season.

it also looked like d'arcy has bulked up bit?? Could be wrong but he definately needed a bit of extra muscle imo just to help in contact!! I think Wannenburg looked far better at 6 than 8 when he played there last season so thats no surprise, but his body position into contact is poor at times too upright i feel stops him makin yards as often as he can

It is a bit. He does remain an asset though, invariably draws in two defenders and sometimes more. Chris Henry very good at 8. At times he looked like a 15 plucking some great ball out of the air.

That backrow has a nice balance to it.

Really looking forward to this season with the 3 South Africans fully integrated into the squad, the young players developing and Spence looking like a real prospect, new signings like Afoa and Payne, Cave coming back and looking good, Ferris hopefully going to be fully fit and hopefully Trimble continues his form he's shown for Ireland as he's been their best player of the summer by a country mile. The ingredients are there for progress so here's hoping thats what we see

Faloon is the only doubt for Friday - eye injury

Willie has been named in the squad so must have a chance.

Nelson and Burns named alongside the senior squad.

Forwards:
Paddy McAllister, Callum Black, Jerry Cronin (development), Declan Fitzpatrick, Adam Macklin (development), John Burns (new Academy), Andi Kyriacou, Nigel Brady, Dan Tuohy, Lewis Stevenson, Tim Barker, Neil McComb, Mike McComish, Pedrie Wannenburg, Chris Henry, Willie Faloon, Robbie Diack.

Backs:
Paul Marshall, Ian Porter (development), Ian Humphreys, Paddy Jackson (development), Ian Whitten, Luke Marshall, Nevin Spence, Darren Cave, Peter Nelson (new Academy), Conor Gaston (Academy), Craig Gilroy, Adam D’Arcy.

So that is 26 seniors named, Gaston and 2 kids,.
9 at the World Cup and 1 arriving this weekend (Payne).

Only missings are Annett (development), McKinney(development)

No injuries

geoff

Whats your take on our centre combination. It looks to me like McL will favour Spence and Cave over Luke Marshall.

should we read anything into Whitten being brought on before Marshall last week or was that just down to gametime?

I agree I think they are taking a softly softly approach to Luke Marshall and I don't see him getting siginificant game time till the 6N. Its a judgement call as to when you feel a young player is ready to play week in week out at this level.

I agree Spence and Cave are the likely combo over the next 6 games.

Any news on Academy additions?

Not really but Christopher Farrell (centre), Stuart Olding (outhalf) and Peter Nelson (full back) have all been involved with the seniors this pre-season. All just out of schools rugby, 18 year olds. Nelson was involved against Harlequins came on for the last 10 on the wing and made a try-saving tackle on a backrow in the corner, which was positive.

The Academy is typically announced early Sept.
My impression is it will be larger than last year purely and solely because there are so many promising kids coming through

Our back three options look decent too. If we consider Spence as a centre and that payne will probably play 15 then what happens to D'arcy? Do we bench him to cover all back three spots? do we drop Gaston to the bench and move D'arcy to the wing?

Its a bloody difficult choice if you ask me. I know D'arcy has brainfarts but he (like iHumph) is one of those guys i like to watch playing rugby. I think he gets a hard time off some fans

I agreed stand re D'Arcy. I thought he had a very decent debut season and he'll consider himself hard done by if Payne comes straight in rather than earning his place. Space for him on the wing if need be I reckon.

I'd bench him. He's a good player but not indispensable. I'd give Payne a chance to show his class and I don't think he'd be as good on the wing.

Rotation, rotation, rotation. would start by benching Gaston personally to see how D'arcy gets on at wing

top 4 finish in the pro 12 lge is a cert imo and I expect them and Munster to be fighting it out for top spot.

A home play off will see you in the final, I expect this to be year of the red hand gang.

don't see you quite being good enough to win 3 ko games in the hc though

jb1973 wrote:don't see you quite being good enough to win 3 ko games in the hc though

No, we've been given a tough draw. It'll be a massive test for us.

Surely Payne has been brought in as the first choice fullback?

There was no talk of Pienaar having to "earn" his place over Small Parcel nor will Afoa have to earn his place when he arrives. These guys have already earned their places by what they have done elsewhere and it is up to the home based incumbents to learn from them and become viable alternatives.

Considering last season Ulster only had the inexperienced Smith and McIlwaine and had to scour the globe to find D'Arcy, they almost have an embarrasment of riches this year.

It is my contention that Ulster need at least three levels of player for every position:
1. Test Class
2. Pro 12 Class
3. Development/Academy

So for 15 they now have:
1. Payne
2. D'Arcy
3. Gaston, Gilroy, Nelson

Here's the Glasgow side for Friday;

15 Stuart Hogg
14 Tommy Seymour
13 Rob Dewey
12 Troy Nathan
11 Colin Shaw
10 Duncan Weir
9 Colin Gregor

1 Jon Welsh
2 Pat MacArthur
3 Mike Cusack
4 Tom Ryder
5 Rob Harley (CAPTAIN)
6 James Eddie
7 Chris Fusaro
8 Ryan Wilson

SUBSTITUTES
16 Finlay Gillies, 17 Ryan Grant, 18 Ed Kalman, 19 Nick Campbell, 20 Rory Pitman, 21 Henry Pyrgos, 22 Peter Horne, 23 Federico Aramburu

We're going to have a seriously long season ahead of us if we can't get the better of that pack.

Gibson wrote:

Notch wrote:Springbok squad named in an hour or so. I'd be nearly certain that Pienaar will be in and Muller won't.

Our strongest team on paper would be;

1. Tom Court (WC)
2. Rory Best (WC)
3. John Afoa (WC)
4. Johann Muller (Inj)
5. Dan Tuohy (Inj)
6. Stephen Ferris (WC)
7. Chris Henry
8. Pedrie Wannenburg
9. Ruan Pienaar (WC)
10. Ian Humphreys (Inj)
11. Simon Danielli (WC)
12. Paddy Wallace (WC)
13. Darren Cave
14. Andrew Trimble (WC)
15. Jared Payne(late arrival)

Red is for players who are unavailable right now, green is for those who are. If Muller and Humphreys go from red to green we'll look a lot better but we are a good bit below strength at the moment unfortunately.

Still, I'm reasonably confident in the ability of the guys who are available; some really talented younger players and a few very experienced older guys still around. I'm reasonably confident we can steady the ship until we start getting some of these injured boys back on the field during the RWC period. I don't think there's much between Gilroy and Danielli, or Stevenson and Tuohy. We will be strong enough to compete with other weakened sides in this period.

Jebus, that's some team. If your Academy players can show their stuff and hold the fort for the 1st few weeks, I see a late challenge for the PRO12 as being a realistic aim. That would fortify next seasons effort. Its what set Leinster up 4 years back anyway. ASM & Tigers, in the HC are just what you need to show how far you have come. You need to measure and test yourselves against the best. There is no hiding if you want to really progress. Ulster are on the road to greater things. Infrastructure and team-building wise, Humphreys and your Board means business. You are in a good solid place.

Great read Don. Must do one for Leinster.

Please do Gibson

On Ulster, I am very envious of your centres for some reason!! I think just because how exciting they are, and this is from a Leisnter fan who's centres include Darcy and BOD, I just like how unrestricted the likes of Marshall and Spence are, I can see them being Ireland's 12 and 13 possibly by the next RWC.

Your scrum should hold up nicely with Afoa in there and I agree was best to give the captaincy to Muller.

Gaston and Gilroy look great.

Ulster are in good shape pity about the HCup draw but I guess you will grow from it and it will help you develop. Really wish you guys the best this season like your lot as a team big time.

Just don't beat Leinster

Wow. Just wow.


Totally, delightedly, brilliantly wrong.

Dear Summer 2011 Don Alfonso - buckle your seatbelt. You're in for quite a ride.

(Also, I have some bets for you to put on. The first is Aironi vs. Munster...)

Jeebus this is a blast from the past!

I don't think any of us expected this don!

rodders wrote: Jeebus this is a blast from the past!

I don't think any of us expected this don!

Except Rava!

Just to be clear – I am not in the habit of sitting, reading through my old threads. Out of curiosity, I did a search to see what people’s predictions for this HEC season were at the start of last season, and my own beautiful handiwork was staring back at me…

Well my prediction before the season, although it wasn't on this thread was that best case we would beat Clermont and Tigers at home and get 10 poinst versus Aironi...but I thought we'd struggle to reach the HEC QF.

I also thought we'd be 4/5th in the Rabo and maybe miss the play offs.

The quality of our performances has been much better than last season and we've certainly surpassed my expectations by a long way.