Who's going to win the the Heineken Cup?

I'll start with the odds:
http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/club-rugby/heineken-cup/winner

Stuttering Ireland have to salvage something from their RWC campaign and then deliver many fit and able bodies back to the cause for the Provinces.

England and France have their resources more distributed but the main contenders are heavily exposed.

Given a bad RWC - it might be Wales' turn?

A lot depends on the body count from the WC. In previous seasons, I feel Leinster and Munster in particular have benefitted from not having their top players playing week in, week out in the build up to the HC but the WC will take care of that plan.
That said, they do have good enough back-up/non-WC players for them to be there or there about.
Beyond these two, the usual suspects of Leicester and Toulouse. To keep things a bit fresher, we do need a lesser team like Glasgow or Edinburgh or the Dragons to reach the QFs but I don't see that happening.

Heading to somewhere in France this year methinks.

WG - I know it is a cliche but it all depends on whether or not the french can be bothered and whether their team can stay solvent. Sadly, I think Edinburgh's palyers are more into solvent abuse judging by some of their performances last season

Toulonais,allez,allez,allez,allez.

Est-ce que une bonne responsé?

Who would have thought that Munster would have won the Heineken Cup in '08 after the world cup Ireland had in 07 - that and losing Paul O'Connell for the group stages to (what was meant to have been a career ending) injury and ROG in bits!

You just never know.

Thomond.

Oui.

Zut alors - are all you Irish boys bi-whatsitcalled or what?

WillyGilly wrote:Thomond.

Oui.

You understood that Franglais-irlandais?

Brilliant!

I speak un petit peu de Francais,a lot of German and Irish. I'm really coming across as a pompous donkey now.

It must be all that London derriere. See what I did there??!! Eh, eh - did you see it? Sometimes I crack myself up, I really do.
I'll get my coat .......

It will be Leinster 2nds. Everyone knows that. Macken to score the winning-try v ASM at Twickers. No Welsh, Scottish, Munster, English or Italians in the mix.

Same ol, same ol. Do ye think we need to change the format for the disadvantaged? Its a PC World after all.

Looking at those odds, Saracens could be a good bet. They are largely unaffected by World Cup call ups, are building nicely and are coming off the back of winning the AP last season.

Oooo, a little bit of politics there, Gibbo.
Sod this PC lark - just find some way of us getting out of the bloody group stages for once!!!!

LDCPete wrote:Looking at those odds, Saracens could be a good bet. They are largely unaffected by World Cup call ups, are building nicely and are coming off the back of winning the AP last season.

Honestly, I see a French side doing it. Toulouse or ASM would be my bet. Followed by Leinster and Edit: Saints. And I havent even looked at the odds. Tigers will be in the SF mix. It's what they do.

Thomond wrote:I speak un petit peu de Francais,a lot of German and Irish. I'm really coming across as a pompous donkey now.

Un petit peu de la connaissance est un chose dangereux.

And I really hope I end up with oeufs sur le visage after that. Git pompeux moi.

I fancy the Saints if their core returns undisturbed.

They have built their depth somewhat and as we all know that last season they collapsed in a heap through over-work.

All the big sides will be confronted with the same problem with their top players: 24 months of continual exposure to big game play.

Bath. You heard it here first.

Seriously though, I think the French club squads are best placed to win it this year. Far more strength and depth while the WC is on.

Interesting little stat for you all - whenever the HC final has been at Twickenham an English team has won the HC. 3/3.

LDCPete I am biased but I absolutey agree. Saracens have a real opportunity to top the pool and gain home advantage.

I honestly think an English team will pick up the HC trophy this year. It's been too long.

Leinster have a really good draw and will be there or thereabouts again.

If not Leinster I think the Tigers or Saints might do it next year.

If Tigers top their group and manage to get rid of one or both of Ulster and Clermont as they do so then I'd say we were favourites because to top that group we'd have to be in some stonking form and have a largely uninterupted squad (neither occurred last season).

Sarries will be a menace as they really got their act together in the second half of the season and were nigh unstoppable, possibley because the opposition were nearly bored to death as much as the incredible defence and clever tactical game plan. Add Hodgson to the mix and they'll be dangerous.

Munster looked rubbish last season but to count them out would be an error as they are tougher than old boot leather. Leinster have serious squad depth and some serious talent but only one team has ever defended the HEC title so it's a big ask.

Tolouse looked pretty poor at the weekend and they have an aging squad but there's still a lot of talent there.

Gibson wrote:

LDCPete wrote:Looking at those odds, Saracens could be a good bet. They are largely unaffected by World Cup call ups, are building nicely and are coming off the back of winning the AP last season.

Honestly, I see a French side doing it. Toulouse or ASM would be my bet. Followed by Leinster and Edit: Saints. And I havent even looked at the odds. Tigers will be in the SF mix. It's what they do.

Firstly I would say ASM won't get a QF place as Ulster and Leicester will come out of the group so that narrows your picks.
Secondly I agree with Toulouse, although perhaps Racing might make a push this time but overall I think it could be an English team with Saints shading it. Leinster will be the best of the Irish and a lot will depend on having a home Quarter Final.

Anyway, has our Final Tickets sorted. SUFTUM

I reckon it'll be a French team this year (I said this yesterday on another thread by the way). I doubt any of the Welsh regions will get far this season.

One of the things about Leinster is that they have a negative which is offset by a positive.

They have 14 lads at the RWC that is the negative.

The positive is they still have players like Nacewa, Fitzgerald, Horgan, Strauss, VDM and McLaughlin playing for them during this time.

Also their group is quite weak, if they lose one of the first 2 games they could still concievably make up the difference in the remaining 4 in bonus points or denying other teams bonus points.

Leinster and Toulouse have to be favourites. They're the two best teams in Europe. Leinster may be effected by the World Cup early on, but they also have probably a weaker pool than they've had in many years. I expect them to get a home quarter final.

The fact that it's in Twickenham will be a big motivation for the English teams. Leicester and Northampton could be up there. Not sure about Saracens going on last years HEC. But they did win the Jeff. The depth in the French squads will really help them. As usual I'll predict ASM to do well (they never live up to expectations though).

pete (buachaill on eirne) wrote:One of the things about Leinster is that they have a negative which is offset by a positive.

They have 14 lads at the RWC that is the negative.

The positive is they still have players like Nacewa, Fitzgerald, Horgan, Strauss, VDM and McLaughlin playing for them during this time.

Also their group is quite weak, if they lose one of the first 2 games they could still concievably make up the difference in the remaining 4 in bonus points or denying other teams bonus points.

weak?

although Leinster will likely top their group, it will be difficult for them to earn enough points to guarantee a home QF (they could be stuck at 21)- they will probably lose 1 or 2 away games (bath and montpelier) and struggle to get BP at home. at the same time, toulouse, saracens and northampton seem to have an easier path. Clermont might join in the battle but their main goal is the T14 - although when I look at their team, I cant see any weakness in any position (fullback position seem the less covered with lee byrne which says a lot and hopefully the lunatic canadian will not be in the 1st XV anymore!)

hc winner should be between one of the above teams whith the QF and SF draw probably deciding who is getting into the final which is the bit sad (would like to see a final 4 at least with semis and final at the same place, a bit like they do in basketball in europe)

Who,
We had ASM, Racing and Sarries in our pool last season and won it comfortably in the end. Possibly the hardest pool ever. Then Tigers in the QF. Toulouse in the SF and Saints in the Final. This year, will be a comparative breeze - in Our Pool, imo. Only worried about Bath away in the Pool tbh.

But, its the HC. Anything can happen. Its all about Focus.

I'd be more worried about Montpellier than Bath. Montpellier really turned it on in the second part of last season and if they can maintain that momentum then they will be a real test to Leinster's credentials. Bath I'm still not convinced by, last season they were pretty woeful and although, there's been some astute signings this summer there is a lot of rebuilding to do and not that much time to gel with a good number of players at the RWC. Bath's squad depth still isn't that mighty so if they suffer a few injuries then they may fall apart again.

Montpellier away in the first fixture in November could be a banana skin. I'm not to worried about Bath. Ulster have beaten them four times in a row home and away in the last two seasons. So I'd expect Leinster to beat them twice. I also expect to beat Glasgow twice. It is an easier pool for us than last year. And if we play anything like last year we won't struggle to get bonus points at home. I'm not sure why you think they will, whocares.

Leinster in last years pool

World Cup injuries could throw a spanner in the works for us though. Fingers crossed that won't happen.

Dont Bath have a fella called Donald in? Anyway, we have history with them. All good. I retract my statement. Im always worried in the HC. Think Aironi and Biarritz. Think LI at the RDS. Think the Castres disaster... Don't think

Montpellier 1st up, could easily be the banana-skin. Its true. Warriors will be tough away as well. As will Bath.

Off subject but...
Christ Feckless, WTF cant Ireland play like that, with the same Leinster players playing for them? That was sheer magic.

No need to answer that. Gaffney de bollix! Deccie, have Schmidt on remote standby. Really could do with his input in NZ now.

Back on subject. After us - ASM for the Heino. Toulouse getting too old. Good odds on ASM.

Toulouse will have a poor year by their own standards. Tigers aren't a bad bet for HEC Winner IMO.

A French team will win it this year.

They have the depth to cope with the WC.

Toulouse will have a poor year by their own standards

I saw the game vs Bayonne and there were players missing but not so many as to excuse being that far off of the pace. They only got a BP after Bayonne took their foot off of the gas. Pointreaud, Jauzion, Fritz, Caucau, McAllister, Lamboley, Nyanga and Bezy all played. It was a weakened team but not so weakened they needed a 7 pointer in the 80th minute to salvage a 18-13 BP loss. A pretty woeful performance and they were lucky Bayonne didn't put them to the sword, some dodgey finishing from Bayonne.

Gibson, here's some reasons why I think Leinster play better than Ireland

1. Psychology. Leinster have no mental weakness. They believe they're the best and they'll win any game, anywhere, against anyone if they play well enough. Ireland have mental hangups. The French, the "All Blacks". They also seem to let doubt creep in when they're not beating weaker teams.

2. Coaching. Cheika and Schmidt have transformed Leinster. Foreign idea's, from foreign coaches and players, fusing with Irish ones is a good thing. Our whole setup is more innovative than the conservative English or the insular French. I really want Ireland to have a head coach from Australia or New Zealand. They are the best coaches in the world if you ask me. And there can be no accusations of provincial bias.

3. Support. The provinces get fanatical support. When they're losing the fans roar louder to encourage them. When Ireland are losing the stadium falls quiet, as the fans are already deciding who's fault it is. Usually someone from another province.

4. Test rugby is harder. Leinster are playing clubs. Ireland are playing the very best players from each country.

formerly known as Sam wrote:

Toulouse will have a poor year by their own standards

I saw the game vs Bayonne and there were players missing but not so many as to excuse being that far off of the pace. They only got a BP after Bayonne took their foot off of the gas. Pointreaud, Jauzion, Fritz, Caucau, McAllister, Lamboley, Nyanga and Bezy all played. It was a weakened team but not so weakened they needed a 7 pointer in the 80th minute to salvage a 18-13 BP loss. A pretty woeful performance and they were lucky Bayonne didn't put them to the sword, some dodgey finishing from Bayonne.

Exactly then factor in that their forwards coach Yannick Bru is leaving very soon to go coach with the national team. I don't think they'll do all that well.

I'm a little surprised that no-one has picked up on the fact that it's not so much as losing players to the RWC - it's more to do with the game time the players are committed to whilst they are there.

Regular, nailed-on players will be likely to be knackered and/or injured whilst others will come home after hardly playing. Shaw for instance came back with a shiny RWC winners medal in his suitcase in 2003 after playing zero minutes in the tournament. Jonny, however was crocked for months.

Feckless Rogue wrote:Gibson, here's some reasons why I think Leinster play better than Ireland

1. Psychology. Leinster have no mental weakness. They believe they're the best and they'll win any game, anywhere, against anyone if they play well enough. Ireland have mental hangups. The French, the "All Blacks". They also seem to let doubt creep in when they're not beating weaker teams.

2. Coaching. Cheika and Schmidt have transformed Leinster. Foreign idea's, from foreign coaches and players, fusing with Irish ones is a good thing. Our whole setup is more innovative than the conservative English or the insular French. I really want Ireland to have a head coach from Australia or New Zealand. They are the best coaches in the world if you ask me. And there can be no accusations of provincial bias.

3. Support. The provinces get fanatical support. When they're losing the fans roar louder to encourage them. When Ireland are losing the stadium falls quiet, as the fans are already deciding who's fault it is. Usually someone from another province.

4. Test rugby is harder. Leinster are playing clubs. Ireland are playing the very best players from each country.

Comprehensive answer and I agree with you all points. Specially the 2nd. We seem to react better to a foreign coach. Im not going to slate Kidney, as it is nigh on impossible for him to keep everyone happy. He is imbedded in provincial rugby. He has, by design and injury - ended up with a more varied and talented squad. But, he took his time about it.

We now have some great young talent in the squad and Im happy with it. Won't fault him anywhere on what he's ended up with. He's just not the man to get this team playing like we can. Should have dropped Gaffney last year, when it was blatantly obvious he is a weak link. I expect the likes of POC & BOD to get this team together. They have what it takes to do so. They did for the SLAM. They won us that. They are special and at the minute - irreplacable.

Sorry for the temp hijack folks. This is for an Irish thread. Back to de Heino.

wales606 wrote:A French team will win it this year.

They have the depth to cope with the WC.

Not the greatest reason for a French team winning I have heard.

An English side has always won the HC when the final is at Twickenham. 3/3. The English teams are looking quite strong this time round. The loss of players don't be as a damaging as it will be to the likes of Munster,Leinster and Toulouse because the top players are less concentrated.

Gloucester and Quins could well take down Toulouse. Very few teams win at Kingsholm afterall.

If one of Northampton,Leicester or Saracens or the other English sides gets to the final you would back them to win.

I would happily bet with anyone that an English team will win the HC.

Good points beshocked. Saints aren't good enough IMO. An easy run last year that won't be repeated this time around. Tigers are the team I expect. Agree about Gloucester and Quins. Saracens aren't a bad shout either and London Irish should be aiming quarter finals with the pool they're in.

[quote="Gibson"]

Feckless Rogue wrote:

Sorry for the temp hijack folks. This is for an Irish thread. Back to de Heino.

The thoughts on Leinster and Ireland is entirely pertinent Gibbo.

Leinster are the current Cup holders and therefore have to be taken seriously. Very seriously.

But for the reason that I made in the post just above yours, I believe that the retention of the trophy (a feat achieved only by :ahem:) is going to be definitely difficult.

I fancy Wales to come home early in the RWC and reckon that both the Blues and the Scarlets will do very well in the HEC. I haven't a clue how the O's will fare - not a friggin' clue.

Portnoy wrote:I'm a little surprised that no-one has picked up on the fact that it's not so much as losing players to the RWC - it's more to do with the game time the players are committed to whilst they are there.

Regular, nailed-on players will be likely to be knackered and/or injured whilst others will come home after hardly playing. Shaw for instance came back with a shiny RWC winners medal in his suitcase in 2003 after playing zero minutes in the tournament. Jonny, however was crocked for months.

Very true Portnoy. Lions Tour also done for so many great players. Some never came back to form for a long while. Or got injured. Kearney & Fitz to mention 2 of ours. Im sure the other HC sides have the same individual instances to mention. Its incredibly mentally and physically sapping. Just the travelling alone. And being so far from home. Takes months to readjust.

So, I agree. This HC will go to the clubs with the deepest squads. And that leans towards the French.

It's impossible to predict really, until after the (unfair) semi final draw. Leinster and Northampton earned home quarter finals but when they also got the luck of the draw for the semi finals they were always odds on to reach the final.

If an English team can earn a home quarter, then get the luck for a home semi, they'll also have a final in Twickenham.

red stag I am obviously biased but I think Saracens will bounce back. In 2007-8 we reached the semis with a pool similar to the one we have now. Narrowly/arguably controversially lost to Munster in the semi who went on to pick up the trophy.

We have had two ridiculously tough pools in our last two seasons of European rugby. An easier pool could see us doing well. I can't remember the last time we lost to a weak side in Europe.

I agree that Saints might not be good enough to win it but they are good enough to knock out a team or two.

The team I fear the most are Leinster and Clermont so it will be nice if someone could knock them out.

You're a Sarries fan? Didn't know that - thought you were a Bath fan (who I don't think will do well). Saracens good enough to win it IMO.

A winnable pool. I'm not sure if they have it to win away in Ireland or France though. Like Northampton last season with a kind draw they could really challenge it.

Beshocked,
You could be right man. But, I dont think the Final venue will make a huge differ to whoever gets there. Specially amongst the real top sides. Cant see Quins or Glaws anywhere near it tbh. Saints and Tigers however and maybe Champs Sarries- yes. It would not bother Leinster, ASM or Toulouse that the Final is at Twickers. Specially Leinster. Be like a home game to us.

It will however, be a great spur for the English sides to play at HQ. I agree. Like the Paris Final did for Toulouse and Biarritz. But, they have to get there 1st. That's the hard bit.

Feckless is right. A home SF draw is crucial.

Do you not think they can Gibbo. I'd be backing between 3-5 English teams in the quarter finals. In the knockouts anything is possible.

Quins, Gloucester, Bath, Tigers, Saracens, Northampton.

red_stag wrote:Do you not think they can Gibbo. I'd be backing between 3-5 English teams in the quarter finals. In the knockouts anything is possible.

Quins, Gloucester, Bath, Tigers, Saracens, Northampton.

In all honesty Stag... 1st 3 no. Last 3 yes. Im sure we could see 3 or 4 English teams in the QF's. But not in the semis. Where I believe the French will have 2. Ireland 1 and England 1. But, that all depends on the seeding, after the Pool Stage also.

Actually, like the rest of us I havent a feicin clue at this stage. So many things can change. Form, bad ref decisions, injury, luck. Who knows? Its the HC. But I believe that will be the SF makeup - country-wise.

Not that it's on the cards, but is the HEC mature enough yet to have neutral grounds with ~30000 seats for the semi-finals?

The home ground advantage in the semi-finals is a bit continuous as they are frequently resolved by the thinnest of margins.

So I put the question again.

Red stag I think to win we would need a home quarter and semi.

Gibson it might not bother those sides but it would spur on the likes of Leicester,Saints and Saracens to take the title.

Leicester play at Twickenham almost every year and in the last 2 years Saracens have played there 4 times as well. The London double header also takes place there.

Half the Saints England boys are used to playing there too.

The English sides could do very well. Is it really out of the question to see Leicester squeezing out Ulster and Clermont? Saracens knocking out Biarritz and Ospreys? Saints disposing of Munster? Quins and Gloucester doing enough combined to knock out Toulouse?

Or is it too optimistic?

I can see Leinster running riot though.