Who's going to win the the Heineken Cup?

First topic message reminder :

I'll start with the odds:
http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/club-rugby/heineken-cup/winner

Stuttering Ireland have to salvage something from their RWC campaign and then deliver many fit and able bodies back to the cause for the Provinces.

England and France have their resources more distributed but the main contenders are heavily exposed.

Given a bad RWC - it might be Wales' turn?

Ah ok I think I understand you now so ASLShoulder. I agree with that.

red_stag wrote:Yes but you look at the likes of Scotland and Italy. Ireland have underperformed but it is the likes of France, South Africa, England, Australia, New Zealand etc who are the constant thorn in our paw at the minute.

Can I ask do you think Leinster would beat any of these teams in a full test match.

No it isn't stag. We've lost to Scotland and Wales this year and Scotland last year too. We've struggled against Italy too.

In fact the only top side we consistantly perform against gave us a pasting last week.

In my opinion Leinster playing as they did this year would have beaten SA in the Autumn, France and Wales in the 6N, France in Bordeaux and England last weekend.

I have absolutely no doubt about it.

Leinster would have beaten SA, France etc



Oh of course the fabled Leinster backrow destroyed France a few weeks ago.

The way I see it (in bullet points):

- Irelands players are condensced into 4 teams
- Englands are spread over 12
- Frances are spread over 14
- There are a handful of excellent clubs on par with Leinster
- Leinster beat them in tight games last year
- International Rugby and Test Rugby are very different
- Ireland are not playing well at test match level
- Leinster are playing well at club level

red_stag wrote:Leinster would have beaten SA, France etc

In the games I've mentioned I believe so. Both teams were awful against us it's just Ireland were to inept too capitalise against two teams who didn't want to be there. Leinster would have chewed both teams up in the two games I've mentioned.

Stag I'm not saying Leinster are better than these sides per se but we did not lose those games because those sides were playing well, we lost because we were rubbish, tactically naive and unable to even perform basic rugby skills like passing the ball.

Rodders I think you do these teams a disservice. It seems your taking a "we lost the match they didn't win it" approach. These are teams who work very hard and who do have excellent players. I don't think Leinster would beat South Africa, France, France, Wales, England in competitive rugby games.

Maybe against a midweek touring team like Munster v Australia they'd get a result but not against teams really trying their all to win.

asoreleftshoulder wrote:

Sin é wrote:My point is that if Leinster had to travel to either Welford Rd, or Toulouse they might not have won, just like they lost their away games to Munster (and incidentally, Munster lost its away game to Leinster). The Millenium was neutral (though I think there were probably more Leinster supporters there).

Now, with the 6Ns, you don't have home and away games and so its much harder to win the tournament.

The difference is that when Leinster lose they still look like a good team that knows what they're doing.Ireland don't even when they win.When Leinster losing away to Clermont,we were all reasonably happy as it was a good performance and the players had played close to the best of their abilities.Compare this to Ireland beating Italy in Rome,I would say if anything Leinster had the tougher opposition but the Irish display was so disappointing not because the game was close but because the players are capable of so much better.

Don't forget - Leinster had a coach who knew the Clermont team inside out. Clermont were also suffering a loss of form last season and only came 4th in the Top 14. While having a couple of outstanding players like Parra, not many of that starting team made the French world cup squad. In fact, the Ireland team that played France in Bordeaux did as well as Leinster did against Clermont even though it might have looked like they did.

When I said Leinster play better than Ireland, I didn't mean Leinster would be a force in test rugby. I meant Leinster play at their best regularly. Ireland underperform regularly. And I think coaching and mentality are big factors.

Remember the Munster pack was pretty much the Ireland pack. Munster dominated club packs in the Heineken Cup. In the Six Nations they didn't dominate the huge French and English packs with their biggest best forwards in one team. They weren't bad but they didn't dominate. In fact EOS played a very backs oriented attacking style. He knew there was no point attempting to beat up the big international forwards, in the same way Munster did regularly to club teams.

Test rugby is a different level, so there's no point speculating on how a province would do in international rugby. I was just comparing the performance levels they achieve at their respective level. Does anyone think Ireland's performance levels have been up to standard in the last four games? Were the four losses entirely down to the brilliance of the opposition? I think we should have done better.

red_stag wrote:Rodders I think you do these teams a disservice. It seems your taking a "we lost the match they didn't win it" approach. These are teams who work very hard and who do have excellent players. I don't think Leinster would beat South Africa, France, France, Wales, England in competitive rugby games.

Maybe against a midweek touring team like Munster v Australia they'd get a result but not against teams really trying their all to win.

No stag I'm taking the "they didn't have to do very much for their wins because we were rubbish" approach.

Ireland are not playing anywhere near the level they should based on the players they have. I know you are a big Kidney fan but surely you can see how poor we've been for nearly 2 years now? My point is that you can't blame it on a lack of quality players as the same players are able to play fantastic rugby for their provinces.

The excuse that it is at a lower level does not wash because we are not even able to perform against the weaker international sides or sides playing poorly.

Feckless Rogue wrote:When I said Leinster play better than Ireland, I didn't mean Leinster would be a force in test rugby. I meant Leinster play at their best regularly.

I agree with this. Ireland have not been at their best.

From Wales I'd have thought Blues are the most capable. But they didn't make any attempt to bring in a new tight head and are persisting with Scott Andrews. Nor do they have a coach or a full back, so on second thoughts...


Scarlets will have a few good games at home but they're still under-powered up front so I believe we'll be likely to see repeats of Ospreys/Leicester/Perpignan at some point...

Ospreys are re-building a bit so Euro looks too big a hurdle for them this season but perhaps next... All 4 will do well in the League but aren't strong enough to make a mark in the Heineken Cup; which I believe will be another French affair.

Seems like Leinster with Joe are just like Ireland with Declan - slow starters. Funny, Munster usually get out of the blocks much quicker. Maybe we should get McGahan as the new Ireland coach - he is consistent.

Sin é wrote:Seems like Leinster with Joe are just like Ireland with Declan - slow starters. Funny, Munster usually get out of the blocks much quicker. Maybe we should get McGahan as the new Ireland coach - he is consistent.

Yay for jumping to conclusions based on one match!

Notch wrote:

Sin é wrote:Seems like Leinster with Joe are just like Ireland with Declan - slow starters. Funny, Munster usually get out of the blocks much quicker. Maybe we should get McGahan as the new Ireland coach - he is consistent.

Yay for jumping to conclusions based on one match!

I'm not basing it on one match - something similar happened last season. Remember, quite a few were out for Joe's head at the time.

Do you not think its a bit funny that on the very day that people were waxing lyrically as to how consistently brilliant Leinster are in comparison to Leinster that they should have a defeat like this?

Sin é wrote:

Notch wrote:

Sin é wrote:Seems like Leinster with Joe are just like Ireland with Declan - slow starters. Funny, Munster usually get out of the blocks much quicker. Maybe we should get McGahan as the new Ireland coach - he is consistent.

Yay for jumping to conclusions based on one match!

I'm not basing it on one match - something similar happened last season. Remember, quite a few were out for Joe's head at the time.

Do you not think its a bit funny that on the very day that people were waxing lyrically as to how consistently brilliant Leinster are in comparison to Leinster that they should have a defeat like this?

Eh?

I agree, Leinster are nowhere near as good as Leinster. That's madness.

Seriously though, first game of the season like...

Notch wrote:I agree, Leinster are nowhere near as good as Leinster. That's madness.

Seriously though, first game of the season like...

I'm not slagging off Leinster for last night's performance - I'd be understanding about that (although it was very poor from them!). Just there are some people who are happy to slate Ireland for a similar start have a bit of egg on their face!

Sin é wrote:

Notch wrote:

Sin é wrote:Seems like Leinster with Joe are just like Ireland with Declan - slow starters. Funny, Munster usually get out of the blocks much quicker. Maybe we should get McGahan as the new Ireland coach - he is consistent.

Yay for jumping to conclusions based on one match!

I'm not basing it on one match - something similar happened last season. Remember, quite a few were out for Joe's head at the time.

Do you not think its a bit funny that on the very day that people were waxing lyrically as to how consistently brilliant Leinster are in comparison to Leinster that they should have a defeat like this?

Actually I was waxing lyrical as to how consistantly brilliant Leinster are in comparison to Ireland on friday. Since then new evidence has come to light that Leinster are in fact rubbish and I was clearly talking complete b*llicks.

Ulster and Munster on the other hand are clearly far better than Ireland with an inferior group of players......

Leinster were a particularly bad example as they looked utterly inept for the first 4-5 games of last seasons Magners League before they clicked in a big way. Remember the 'Joe Schmidt must go' brigade?

Good old sin he never lets me off the hook...

Sin é wrote:

Notch wrote:I agree, Leinster are nowhere near as good as Leinster. That's madness.

Seriously though, first game of the season like...

I'm not slagging off Leinster for last night's performance - I'd be understanding about that (although it was very poor from them!). Just there are some people who are happy to slate Ireland for a similar start have a bit of egg on their face!

Similar?

Losing the first game of the season while 20 players are either away with the WC or injured or losing 4 warmup games before the world cup? Similar?

Seriously?

Notch wrote:Remember the 'Joe Schmidt must go' brigade?

Journalists? I don't remember anyone on here saying Joe must go anyway...

Mainly yes, and a few disgruntled 'bandwagon' style Leinster fans.

Schmidt had a new 9 and 10 out there and most all his team missing. It will come. That's the differ between him and Kidney. With Schmidt - you know it will come. And when it does... its like watching Barca.

P.S. I wrote an article in his defence last year, after his 3/4 defeats. It was obvious he was trying to lay down his style and that took time, after the damage Gaffney had done. The same damage he is now imposing on Ireland under Kidney.

Believe in Blue.

How dare Schmidt preside over such a game! Oh the horror! Oh the ig-money! Do you know Leinster have never won a RaboDirect Pro12 league match, home or away?

(...or we could calm down a bit)

Gibson wrote:Believe in Blue.

Feic that. Believe in Green. They need our belief a hell of a lot more right now.

Every team has them, hardly worth mentioning really.

Mickado wrote:

Notch wrote:Remember the 'Joe Schmidt must go' brigade?

Journalists? I don't remember anyone on here saying Joe must go anyway...

The Usual Suspects. Francis and Hook. Clueless goshoites the pair of em.

Back up the truck. Leinster played some fantastic attacking rugby under Cheika too.

Whats the deal with Gaffney, why is he so rubbish?

Did someone say that Gaffney isn't getting much influence under Kidney?

I don't think he's rubbish, just that he has been found out.

red_stag wrote:

Gibson wrote:Believe in Blue.

Feic that. Believe in Green. They need our belief a hell of a lot more right now.

Fair comment. Yes, let's sweep the negativity away and get behind the Boys In Green. Kidney will not be judged on those last 4 games. Its the next 4 that really count. I hope we have 5 like. At least. Then its knockout time and anything can happen.

Shoulder... to shooo--oooulder... we'll answer Irelands Call.

Believe In Green.

I'd be amazed if we lost to Italy. I'd also be surprised if we made the semis. Both are probably as likely as each other.

Yeah most likely is we beat USA and Russia fairly convincingly, lose to Australia- not a hammering, but a comfortable enough win for them- and see off Italy with a good performance before losing narrowly to the Boks.

That'd be enough for Kidney to keep his job anyway, without ever really impressing anyone outside of Ireland.

Or... something special. Believe!

red_stag wrote:I'd be amazed if we lost to Italy.

please don't say things like that on the eve of the WC stag!

I have a good feeling about this WC. Trust me. Don't be booking any holidays until after the 3rd place play offs.....

Allez les vertes!

This is how I see it going. Pool 4 & 5 are stinkers and I have to disagree with the original posters who believe Leicester will top the group. The smart money is on Clermont to qualify. Ulster should take points off them though at Ravenhill. Its going to be a close run thing and I think Clermont have to be favourites. Don't get me wrong, Leicester could top this group but if i had to bet my house on this one it would be on Clermont.

Same can be said about Pool 5. Biarritz I dont think are the same calibre as Clermont this year and well we all know about the Ospreys ability to lose games they should win. So I reckon Saracens are likely to top this group on some good front 8 displays.

Given the nature of both pools its probably safe to assume the best runner up spots may not go to any teams in these groups.

The rest become a little more easy to pick. And here it is in order of position (with the top 4 likely to get home draws).

1. Tolouse
2. Leinster
3. Munster
4. Cardiff Blues (I cant believe I am tipping them Qualify)
5. Clermont
6. Saracens
7. Northampton
8. Bath

If thats the likely qualification it will probably see Bath heading to France and Northampton heading to Leinster. I'd probably also tip Munster at Home against Saracens. On the same note if Clermont did get drawn against Blues they probably would beat the Blues away. To me that would probably see a Irish/French semi final.

Just watched a cracking game between Toulouse & Racing Metro (1st & 2nd in last year's Top 14 table).

Racing could well cause an upset for Cardiff & London Irish and top their group.

Toulouse were looking pretty damn good, some great young new signings and McAlister going well at FH (recruiting him & Beauxis in place of Skrela was definitely a step up), and they're only likely to get even better given they're currently missing:

Servat
Cencus Johnston
Poux
Albacete
Millo-Chluski
Dusautoir
Picamoles
Vergallo
Luke Burgess
Clerc
Medard


Jauzion scored 2 tries for Toulouse today, Nyanga & Poitrenaud another try apiece. Given France's performance today, Lievremont might be wishing he had reconsidered his squad selection.

yeah cant believe how fast McAlister is adapating to Toulouse game - looks like he's been playing there for year! thanks GH for not picking him!

toulouse - racing games are now classic games to watch a bit like leinster-munster or nz-sa in terms of contrasting rugby style played by both teams.

Welshmushroom

I completely disagree.

Pool 4 and Pool 5 have Treviso and Aironi. There is a real opportunity to pick up try bonus points.

beshocked wrote:

wales606 wrote:A French team will win it this year.

They have the depth to cope with the WC.

Not the greatest reason for a French team winning I have heard.

An English side has always won the HC when the final is at Twickenham. 3/3. The English teams are looking quite strong this time round. The loss of players don't be as a damaging as it will be to the likes of Munster,Leinster and Toulouse because the top players are less concentrated.

Gloucester and Quins could well take down Toulouse. Very few teams win at Kingsholm afterall.

If one of Northampton,Leicester or Saracens or the other English sides gets to the final you would back them to win.

I would happily bet with anyone that an English team will win the HC.

Too late to take you up on that, Beshocked?

Yes Don Alfonso obviously it's too late.

I am confident for next season.

Not going to bet till I see the pools though.

Still I won £10 off my Saint's mate. I bet him Saracens would get further in the HC than Saints.

rodders wrote:Leinster have a really good draw and will be there or thereabouts again.

If not Leinster I think the Tigers or Saints might do it next year.

..... ah well 1 out of 3 ain't bad.....

beshocked wrote:Yes Don Alfonso obviously it's too late.

I am confident for next season.

Not going to bet till I see the pools though.

Still I won £10 off my Saint's mate. I bet him Saracens would get further in the HC than Saints.

Well, I didn't stick my neck out myself, so I can't moan. And if I had, I wouldn't have said Ulster!

Beshocked - I'm interested - is that because you thought the Saints over-performed last year, or you thought Saracens would be great this year, or because of the pools? Or were you just trying to wind up your mate?

Around the time of this thread I was belligerently and defiantly saying Ulster could and maybe even would get past the group stages. No-one gave us a hope!

Bit like the Final... lets wait and see how it goes

An Irish team!

I win!

Don Alfonso wrote:

beshocked wrote:Yes Don Alfonso obviously it's too late.

I am confident for next season.

Not going to bet till I see the pools though.

Still I won £10 off my Saint's mate. I bet him Saracens would get further in the HC than Saints.

Well, I didn't stick my neck out myself, so I can't moan. And if I had, I wouldn't have said Ulster!

Beshocked - I'm interested - is that because you thought the Saints over-performed last year, or you thought Saracens would be great this year, or because of the pools? Or were you just trying to wind up your mate?

It's all about the pools. Would be foolish to bet before you know the opposition as I have learnt to my cost in the past.

No I don't think Saints overperformed last season. They did as well as I thought they would. They had the softest group and two relatively simple quarter finals and semis. They did what was expected of them.

Notch wrote:Around the time of this thread I was belligerently and defiantly saying Ulster could and maybe even would get past the group stages. No-one gave us a hope!

Bit like the Final... lets wait and see how it goes

mmmm you might want to have a look at page 2 of this thread...

quote
But my tip is another title for Guy Noves and Toulouse. Don't see much challenge from the Irish this year as we'll be hit proportionately harder by the RWC..
unquote

cant blame you, my piece of advice back in september was pants ! (Leinster to struggle to get a home QF)

nice to read the expectations/predictions of 6-7 month ago in light of what actually happened...
Red Stag was a bit of a nostradamus when mentionning that Toulouse would have a poor year by their own standarts .