Boks over the hill

http://www.dnaindia.com/sport/report_rugby-world-cup-springboks-are-over-the-hill-says-aussie-record-holder_1585471

PDV calls it experience, Lynagh takes a different view. Can Boks rewrite history or will Wales herald a mass retirement?

Remember this in seven weeks time,if the Boks win it.

Over the hill perhaps but they are still a mountain too high for Wales in all probability (no disrespect intended)
.
This team beat the all blacks 1 month ago. Wales haven't beaten the All blacks in 60 years.

these articles are just tedious to say the least

Gatts thanks mate, I needed something to talk about, and you have found it.

For tonight you are my hero, but I first need to get some homework done, and then I will respond with something statistical and intellectual.

cheers

Like England are the only side to play back to back finals,orbe really original like All blacks choke again.

First a question to the guys out there, at what age would you deem a player aging or old?

biltongbek wrote:Gatts thanks mate, I needed something to talk about, and you have found it.

For tonight you are my hero, but I first need to get some homework done, and then I will respond with something statistical and intellectual.

cheers

This wasn't a cheap shot....reading between the lines lynagh - whose understated opinions i have always respected - is sticking his neck out on the surface but interp of his comments have been characterised in the usual media BS way...expereince equals overthe hill...not so, he is saying that the wish to do the double make splayers hang about for a 2nd stab which might explain the failure of any team to do it

Look forward to your post bb

fa0019 wrote:Over the hill perhaps but they are still a mountain too high for Wales in all probability

Exactly. They may not be where they were a couple of years ago, but it's all relative. This side were and are too strong for Wales.

Well perhaps he's quotes that from experience

"Players that won a World Cup hold on a little bit long and want to do another one."

His RWC95 side were in a similar position albeit coming up to the tournament they were doing well. In reality it was one year too far as players like Lynagh, McCall & Campo were outplayed & embarrassed by both SA & ENG on both a personal & a team level.

If ENG07 with old players such as Regan, Vickery, Shaw, Kay, Corry, Dillaglio, Gomersall, Lewsey, Catt, Robinson could beat the likes of AUS & FRA to get themselves to another RWC final then SA certainly can when you think they still have world class players such as Schalk, Brussow, Bismaarck, Fioure, Frans Steyn in their side amongst all those "has beens".

Ok, let me start off with stating that Lynach is still smarting over that win in the opening test of the 1995 RWC.

What I did was compare our squad with New Zealand as they are seen as the top team at the world cup.

South African squad

Forwards
Beast Matiwarira, age 26
Guthro Steenkamp, age 30
John Smit (c), age 33
Bismarck du Plessis, age 27
Chiliboy Ralapele, age 25
CJ v d Linde, age 30
Jannie du Plessis, age 28
Victor Matfield age 34
Bakkies Botha, age 31
Danie Rossouw, age 33
Schalk Burger, age 28
Heinrich Brussow, age 25
Willem Alberts, age 26
Pierre Spies, age 26
Frans Louw, age 26
Johan Muller, age 31

Average age of forwards 28 years 8 months.

Backs
Fourie du Preez, age 29
Francois Hougaard, age 21
Ruan Pienaar, age 27
Morne Steyn, age 27
Butch James, age 32
Jean de Villiers, age 30
Jaque Fourie, age 28
Juan de Jongh, age 23
Bryan Habana, age 28
Patrick Lambie, age 20
Frans Steyn, age 24
JP Pietersen, age 25
Gio Aplon, age 28
Odwa Ndungane, age 30

Average age backs 26 years 7 months

Average age of total squad 27 years 8 months.

All Black squad.

Forwards
Corey Flynn, age 30
Andrew Hore, age 33
Keven Mealamu, age 32
John Afoa, age 28
Ben Franks, age 27
Owen Franks, age 23
Tony Woodcock, age 30
Anthony Boric, age 27
Brad Thorn, age 36
Samuel Whitelock, age 23
Ali Williams, age 30
Jerome Kaino, age 28
Richie McCaw, age 30
Kieran Read, age 25
Adam Thomson, age 29
Victor Vito, age 24

Average age of forwards 28 years 5 months

Backs
Jimmy Cowan, age 29
Andy Ellis, age 27
Piri Weepu, age 28
Daniel Carter, age 29
Colin Slade, age 24
Richard Kahui, age 26
Ma’a Nonu, age 29
Conrad Smith, age 30
Sonny Bill Williams, age 26
Israel Dagg, age 23
Zac Guildford, age 21
Cory Jane, age 28
Mils Muliaina, age 31
Isaia Toeava, age 25

Average age of backs 25 years 10 months

Average age of total squad 27 years 3 months

Those players in bold are older than 30.

We looked at the SA squad a few weeks ago and specifically their ages.

Our locks are all over the age of 30.

The one omission from our squad at lock is Andries Bekker who is 27 or 28 can't remember exactly, But he is injured.

apart from him these are still the best locks in our country.

Butch James should not be there, becasue he is not good enough, nothing to do with he age.

John Smit is not our best hooker, but it seems his leadership is seen as vital.

Biltong.
Im in the same camp with some of the boks ages.
Rugby age not birth age.
Some i think are past their use by date and are playing because theyve been selected.
For some time now SA have not applied rigorous selection criteria.
They have applied 'what used to work" strategies.
I think its resulted in some players being there when they themselves just might think themselves a bit lucky.
None i can name other than smit specifically rather though the very process resulting in not perhaps the best in each pos available.
Yesterday showed the faves are vulnerable and in other circs i wouldnt give wales a hope in this.
But as a first up game even i would have hated for the abs to meet wales first up.
This is make or break for them tonight looking at that pool and for them the path to the 8 will be soooo much easier if they won. Gatland has said for a while SA were the focus whereas you and i know our teams dont 'target' pool teams. We just beat them.
The atmosphere though is screaming for an upset. And tonight could be it.
I expect SA to win but by no means would a wales win shock. Its that sort of environment.

Average age dont mean that much.

Tman

reading this thought of smit too, but like stephen jones he brings much more to the game than even the picking of b du p who should start can offer.....

clearly Bakkies can't play when Smit is on the pitch, his permamnet semi on for Smit says it all

Taylorman, I agree with you about Smit, I think most people do.

Yes I agree Wales could cause an upset, and yes the fact is old bones need a little bit of time to oil those joints.

The reason why wales may upset us is not the age thinng though, it is the little rugby the first string side has played in the last 10 weeks.

The following players do not concern me.

Beast, he is young and always ready to go.
John Smit, for this game a good starter, he has played all the warm up matches.
Jannie du Plessis, he is young and doesn't get rusty.
Brussow, he showed he can step out of a coma and be match ready.
Spies, he is young and willing and showed decent form in the last test.
Danie Rossouw, he is used to be ready at a moments notice.

Players that do concern me.
Schalk Burger, he hasn't played for almost 3 months.
Victor Matfield, he will need some time to settle

I can see on every website there is a call for an upset tomorrow, but then again we are the world champions and for most of those pundits it is almost a wish that we do get beat tomorrow, it is the case of please let some underdog somewhere win a match that by history they can't, and we seem the most likely target.

But then again every world cup we go to, we aren't the favourites, and that suits us.

Yes Wales might beat us tomorrow, but in between all this rest, preparation and secret camps we had one match to focus on, and that was the Welsh first up.

Cymroglan wrote:Average age dont mean that much.

why ? is it cause its lower than you expected after reading all the BS on the internet?

Cymroglan wrote:Average age dont mean that much.

Can you then enlighten me.

No because a side could have half a dozen 18 year olds in it and a few 35 year old so that then makes the average age a total nonsense,

Cymroglan wrote:No because a side could have half a dozen 18 year olds in it and a few 35 year old so that then makes the average age a total nonsense,

Cymroglan that argument carries no weight, the player's ages are right next to their names, if you would like to ddraw any conclusions then use the individual ages.

Averaging the age out does not make the older players any younger in the real world.

Cymroglan wrote:No because a side could have half a dozen 18 year olds in it and a few 35 year old so that then makes the average age a total nonsense,

If it's across a squad of 30 players than an average age is pretty representative.

Can we please stop these sniping,aggravating,wumming threads coz they get right up my snoz!
Could not give a monkey's about the age of any opponent.
Are they any good? is the only question and the Boks certainly are.
If we beat them it will be damn good,mind.

Cymroglan

Ok then so why not look at the boks in terms of the median age to take out the age range potential bias.

The median age of the boks is 28.. near half their squad is <27.

Thats close to the ave. age so your argument (albeit potentially valid) does not hold much clout.

Its pretty much the same for their first XV too.

Taffineastbourne wrote:Can we please stop these sniping,aggravating,wumming threads coz they get right up my snoz!
Could not give a monkey's about the age of any opponent.
Are they any good? is the only question and the Boks certainly are.
If we beat them it will be damn good,mind.

Don't worry Taffin, there isn't much else to talk about tonight, and perhaps a way of clearing up the myth that this Bok team is aging.

I understand fully that averages are brilliant for stats but in the real world all those players highlighted will still be over 30.
I'm not trying to cause drama or be disrespectful towards South Africa I'm just being a realist.

biltongbek wrote:

Taffineastbourne wrote:Can we please stop these sniping,aggravating,wumming threads coz they get right up my snoz!
Could not give a monkey's about the age of any opponent.
Are they any good? is the only question and the Boks certainly are.
If we beat them it will be damn good,mind.

Don't worry Taffin, there isn't much else to talk about tonight, and perhaps a way of clearing up the myth that this Bok team is aging.

Good luck tomorrow,Biltong.I hope that both teams make their supporters proud.

Cymroglan, your argument makes no sense, in fact you aren't making any point.

This illustrates that there are 6 players over 30 in our squad, and lock is the position where the ages are over 30, but the reality is even though these guys are older than 3o there are no locks in SA better than them apart from Andries Bekker, in fact not even close to their caliber.

In Bismarck du plessis we have the best hooker in the world as back up for John smit, so in my opinion the age thing is a non issue.

Thanks Taffin, I am sure it will live up to the hype and be the match of the weekend, hopefully no players get injured and we see quality rugby.

OK then if you want to believe that players over 30 are 27 so be it it's pointless arguing over it.

If you had bothered to read what I said maybe you would not be so fast to jump the gun.
Not once did I say that any of them players were unfit useless or way past it all I said was that average ages to me means nothing.

Cymroglan wrote:OK then if you want to believe that players over 30 are 27 so be it it's pointless arguing over it.

If you had bothered to read what I said maybe you would not be so fast to jump the gun.
Not once did I say that any of them players were unfit useless or way past it all I said was that average ages to me mean nothing.

Yes, Cymroglan Sir, that is all you said, but what is your point?

That players that are over 30 aren't 27?

Comes down to individuals in the end and the selection critetia used.
Thorn is by far our oldest. But he is also our best lock. He has been selected because he has been the form lock all year and is amongst the fittest of the entire ab squad including the babies.

He still churns out the work rate and no one gets the better of him on the field. If they did GH would drop him. Simple. So its more a question of the selection critetia used to get a 35 year old onto the paddock. With thorne hes met every criteria asked of him to the point that no one has questioned his selection due to his age.
With mils, younger at 31, his rugby age is in question and is being treated as such. So the criteria around age is robust.
I just dont think in SA terms it is and under intense pressure it may show in those players who have found themselves there by default.
F steyn is another mind you. Out of his depth for someone who clearly had had better days. Plays like he's there for the ride.

Correct.

Well I suppose we'll get our answers tomorrow, or in your case later today.

Cymroglan

Ok well how many players in die bokke's first XV are over 30 then?

15? No, 4.

Smit, Bakkies, Matfield & Jean De Villers.

Beast, J. Du Plessis, Burger, Brussow, Spies, Du Preez, M. Steyn, Habana, Pietersen, Fioure & F. Steyn are all under 30... in fact all in that group are 28 or < bar Du Preez.

Not quite dad's army just yet.

Cymroglan wrote:Correct.

Thanks for explaining that to me, I never understood that before.

I noticed

Cymroglan wrote:I noticed

Do you think you could assist me with the formula of splitting an atom under controlled conditions as well, and also particle acceleration, have always been struggling with those.

Michael Lynagh never said some of the players were too young he said that some of them were too old so average age does not come in to it.
Do I agree with him No do I hope he is right Yes of course I do.

Yeah the age things irelevant now anyway.
Teams are picked and often theres no substitute for experience anyway.
Fascinating game it will be anyway. Im hoping italy give oz a bit of a run in the pack today too.
Good game for oz to test their pack.

Anyone older than me is past it,Biltong what about this mysterious outbreak of Hamstrings again.
Everyone says experience ,say 3 or 4 RWCs are vital for a winner to shepherd the youngsters.
When does the old stager go over the hill,does S15 form mean anything
Wallabies are built around the Reds currently.

Alan, I don't know when a player is over the hill, all I know is there aren't any better fit players back home.

You have seen them all in the Super 15, Hargreaves too light, Van der Merwe not physical enough, there are a few youngsters that came through but aren;t there yet.

We will miss Andries Bekker, for me the best lock in SA.

Naas Botha said the other night a player is never too old or too young, he is either good enough or not.

Go Bokke!!!

biltongbek wrote:Alan, I don't know when a player is over the hill, all I know is there aren't any better fit players back home.

You have seen them all in the Super 15, Hargreaves too light, Van der Merwe not physical enough, there are a few youngsters that came through but aren;t there yet.

We will miss Andries Bekker, for me the best lock in SA.

Naas Botha said the other night a player is never too old or too young, he is either good enough or not.

It isn't just age bb, its that age leads to teams becoming staid, predictable and inflexible and you would be first to admit these are labels thrown at SA in the last 2 years....in fact their recent awakening against NZ seemed to illustrate even more what doldrums they had been in for some time

Another point I would like to mention,

In an article some time ago ( can't remember which newspaper)it was mentioned that the challenge for SA to defend their title is massive.

Not only do they have to go and win it in New Zealand, they have to do it in a stadium where the All Blacks just don't lose.

But it is also something that has never been done before.

And it is with a team that has not been on fire for the last 2 years.

All those odss would suggest that it will be the most formidable challenge facing the Boks ever.

Add to that our coach and preparation.

So we are under no illusions as to how improbable this is.

biltongbek wrote:Another point I would like to mention,

In an article some time ago ( can't remember which newspaper)it was mentioned that the challenge for SA to defend their title is massive.

Not only do they have to go and win it in New Zealand, they have to do it in a stadium where the All Blacks just don't lose.

But it is also something that has never been done before.

And it is with a team that has not been on fire for the last 2 years.

All those odss would suggest that it will be the most formidable challenge facing the Boks ever.

Add to that our coach and preparation.

So we are under no illusions as to how impobable this is.

wow, you haven't kicked a ball yet ( ) and already you are in the final.

Taylorman

I know its off topic but I agree.. was reading the usual aussie media garbage the other day about how they now have a scrum to beat all comers..... this is yet to be proven and come SF time it will be the make or break of AUS when they face in all probabilty FRA or ENG (2 of the very best scrum teams around).

Italy will show how far they have come though... its the only area they can truly say they have an edge over most. The problem with Italy I'm afraid is their mentality... they never have been able to put in performances when they don't think they have a chance of winning.

They often target 1 game and then play awful for the match against the tier 1 side (please see Italy vs. NZ compared to a 2nd team Scot vs. NZ and then the Italy vs. Scot match in the last RWC as reference). They just rolled over to NZ, never tried to tackle them, didn't have the heart to put in a performance and I think overall, it cost them a QF place.

I expect Aus will win well today... contrary to all the results that have happened already in the RWC thus far.

No Gatts, it was what the article illustrated.

Gatts wrote:

biltongbek wrote:Alan, I don't know when a player is over the hill, all I know is there aren't any better fit players back home.

You have seen them all in the Super 15, Hargreaves too light, Van der Merwe not physical enough, there are a few youngsters that came through but aren;t there yet.

We will miss Andries Bekker, for me the best lock in SA.

Naas Botha said the other night a player is never too old or too young, he is either good enough or not.

It isn't just age bb, its that age leads to teams becoming staid, predictable and inflexible and you would be first to admit these are labels thrown at SA in the last 2 years....in fact their recent awakening against NZ seemed to illustrate even more what doldrums they had been in for some time

Thats where the Boks have the edge , we were in rugby wilderness over the last two years as predicted by a Noakes(SA doctor ) in 09 but we still managed to get results against everyone except NZ and Aus. the horrors of 2010 can be attributed to the absence of two key players vital to the Bok gameplan and not the team itself growing old .The Boks needed to lose and to lose badly at that before the World Cup to re ignite some of the passion thats been lacking lately .

biltongbek wrote:No Gatts, it was what the article illustrated.