could be the most one sided final in US open history

First topic message reminder :

Lucky Nadal will face a confident Djoko in another Grand slam final. Nadal has been a mute spectator in previous 5 meetings against Djoko this year. With Djoko having Nadal's number and owning him recently we might be heading for the most one sided US open final in the history.

Djoko is doing a great service to the game of tennis.

Djoko 2011 US open champion.

lydian wrote:"Could be the most one sided final in US open history" - wow

What even more so than the most one-sided final in the history of the US Championships/US Open when in 1974 Jimmy Connors beat a 39-year-old Ken Rosewall, 6-1, 6-0, 6-1, in 78 minutes?

Yeah righto...

Lydian , it's a euphemism

wow wrote:

lydian wrote:"Could be the most one sided final in US open history" - wow

What even more so than the most one-sided final in the history of the US Championships/US Open when in 1974 Jimmy Connors beat a 39-year-old Ken Rosewall, 6-1, 6-0, 6-1, in 78 minutes?

Yeah righto...

Lydian , it's a euphemism

So, in other words, no.

well, it can't go as bad as 78 minutes considering that 4 minutes to be allocated for pre serve rituals.

A 3 setter or max a 4 setter for Djoko.

Even if the match went 6-0 6-0 6-0 to Djokovic it would still last far more than 78 minutes. It would be at least an hour of waiting time between points.

Djoko is the favourite, but not by as much as the OP suggests in my view.

To my mind the match is on Djoko's racquet - if they both come with their A games and comparable levels of fitness I'm pretty confident that it's Djoko's title. If Djoko drops a bit from his A-game or is physically or mentally tiring after a huge season then he'll probably lose. He did not show us truly what he was capable of at Wimbledon until he had to in the final, so it is difficult to judge exactly where he is right now from his current form (as with Wimbledon, he also lost the last match he played before this tournament).

I agree with Barry, I think it might be a bit tighter than some people think.

Djokovic may have beaten him 5 times, but i don't think Nadal has been in better form all season than the form he has displayed in his last 2 matches.

I still think Djoko will win, but in 4 or 5 sets. Rather than one sided, I think it could be a bit of an epic.

I think Rafa's chances may hinge on winning the first set. If the first set goes to Djokovic, I can't see Rafa winning 3 out of 4 sets (he's only won 3 out of the 14 sets they have played this year).

Rafa's form is better now that it has been in the year's other matches but it depends where he is mentally against Djokovic. Rafa was fantastic in the Wimbledon semi but seemed to run out of ideas and wilt at key moments in the final.

The first set is nearly always vital. My researches suggest that in the 28 matches they have played only on 4 occasions has the winner not won the first set:

Nadal won at Wimbledon 2007 (Djoko retired in the 3rd set) and he won their epic at Madrid 2009 after losing the 1st set.

Djoko won at Indian Wells and Miami this year after losing the 1st set.

I think winning the 1st set is probably more important for Rafa than for Djoko on this surface at this tournament at this particular stage in their rivalry. If Djoko wins the first set Nadal may start to wonder what he can do - he has said that he thought about their recent matches at the Wimbledon final this year.

Got to say the betting has Djoko massive favourite at 2/3 with Nadal at <3/2. to be honest i think there some value in a Nadal bet at those odds.

Didn't even check what Stosurs odds were yesterday, some people must have lost tonnes with Serena

Any thoughts on what Nadal could do tactically?

Moonball higher.

Be prepared to hit the same shot 40 times instead of just 20 times.

JuliusHMarx wrote:Be prepared to hit the same shot 40 times instead of just 20 times.

Actually this I doubt. I'd be very surprised if Nadal were to try to engage in long rallies versus Djokovic. That might be Djoko's tactic actually as he tends to do less running than Nadal.

I know what you mean Tenez, but that's Nadal's game - when he tried to shorten the rallies at Wimby by hitting winners, he was spraying them all over the place.

Maybe a better answer would be to get his shot selection right. Or maybe do something, anything different to surprise Djoko and grab the first set.

Their closest matches this year have been on hard courts, so bear that in mind.

I wonder whether Federer has taken anything out of Djokovic?

JuliusHMarx wrote:I know what you mean Tenez, but that's Nadal's game - when he tried to shorten the rallies at Wimby by hitting winners, he was spraying them all over the place.

Maybe a better answer would be to get his shot selection right. Or maybe do something, anything different to surprise Djoko and grab the first set.

Yep. I personally think that Nadal's shot weight will be even heavier than in the past. Nadal won't pull winners first, but he can make it harder to hit winners from his shots. He will try to maximise Djoko's UEs ratio.

I am curious to see how this final is going to pan out. I can only say that Nadal gets stronger as we get closer to the USO final for some reasons. He struggles with everybody at Montreal, Cincy, and the first rounds of the USO against lower ranked players but as we are getting closer to the final he gets stronger, faster but like the previous years I am pretty sure his form will dip after the USO too.

Against the best returner, Nadal is not going to gain many service points. He must get a good number of first serves in though.

Nadal's top-spun moon balls that land just inside the baseline have bothered many opponents, but not Novak. He is seldom disturbed by this tactic.

Nadal has to be on the look out for Novak's down-the-line passing shots.

Perhaps Nadal should try more corner-to-corner shots, especially to Djoko's backhand.

I am not sure if any of these actually work because Djoko seems quite comfortable taking on Rafa.

I disagree with people who think this will be a lopsided final. Rafa has played really well the last two matches and Novak maybe in for a slight mental let down after such a classic match against Federer. I don't think it is so much fatigue as the difficulty of getting up again focus wise and emotionally wise after such a close up and down affair. Plus Nadal and toni have to have been working on a few tactical wrinkles specifically for Novak due to Nadal's recent losses. I think this thing goes 4 or 5 tough sets. I think Novak wins but it will not be a straight set thumping with a breadstick or bagel in there.

socal is right, as he says Novak will know that he can't get so lucky two matches in a row and he might be fearing some "karma".

This could be competitive.

Nice wummery BB. You aren't going to be able to get under my skin today, I am enjoying myself too much after that match last night. Cheers my friend, I know you didn't enjoy the match as much as I did so have your little internet jibes.

Novak looked very fresh after that match 2 days ago; he's obviously doing better at conserving his energy in between games/sets so I don't think that'll hinder him this afternoon.. afterall Novak had a legitimate opponent who played like he wanted to win this slam; not a guy who only wanted to make up the numbers of the semi finalists..

Contrary to popular belief, I don't think Rafa is playing any better than he was at IW or Miami - I think his level is about the same, and that's probably his peak level right now.

Novak's form seems to have dropped slightly.

If Novak gets the first set I think Rafa will go down quite tamely. Infact, if Novak seizes control of the majority of the rallies at any point during the match, I think Rafa will lose confidence, the errors will creep in and Novak will win.

Ultimately, Nadal has to play out of his comfort zone to win this match. His usual attritional style doesn't work against Novak as we've seen; Novak is the stronger and fitter player now.

Nadal has to go for the lines more. He has to try and hit the dtl FH to disrupt the cc FH to BH exchanges, he has to try and hit his BH flatter, deeper and with more pace. Both of these shots do not come naturally to him. He also needs to serve with pace to get some free points.

Djokevic will attack the Nadal FH and stretch him out wide then hit winners into the open court. He needs to hold the centre of the baseline and dictate with his FH.

If Novak plays with controlled aggression he will win this match. It's on his raquet. Novak in 3 or 4.

JM, i don't think it is a physical issue, sometimes after a big rivalry win in a tight match like that there is a tendency to be in a little bit of an afterglow or to become self satisified, it more of a mental and emotional fatigue. Yet, I still think Novak will win, I just don't think it will be lopsided.

If we think we are bad at times on this forum - look at the 'discussion' following on from Matt Cronin's analysis at the US Open web site. http://www.usopen.org/en_US/news/articles/2011-09-11/201109111315775722022.html?promo=home

One point Cronin makes that I find interesting is that he thinks Nadal has not been hitting it deep enough off his backhand all tournament to put the pressure back on Djoko. That's quite a change to make for a final against the person best positioned to exploit such a weakness. If Cronin is right, this supports my view that much of the 'mental' battle follows inexorably from the physical battle. If one player has a go-to shot or tactic which he can execute relatively safely without fear of error against the other who has to do something difficult or unnatural to combat the tactic the first player has a huge mental advantage; this will increase as he uses his shot/tactic attritionally as the match wears on and it becomes more difficult for his opponent to combat the tactic with unnatural or risky brilliance. This is true in my view of the Fed/Nadal and Nadal/Djokovic rivalries, but the Djoko/Federer rivalry is more evenly balanced because neither has a safe goto tactic which puts the other under greater pressure.

barrystar wrote:If we think we are bad at times on this forum - look at the 'discussion' following on from Matt Cronin's analysis at the US Open web site. http://www.usopen.org/en_US/news/articles/2011-09-11/201109111315775722022.html?promo=home

One point Cronin makes that I find interesting is that he thinks Nadal has not been hitting it deep enough off his backhand all tournament to put the pressure back on Djoko. That's quite a change to make for a final against the person best positioned to exploit such a weakness. If Cronin is right, this supports my view that much of the 'mental' battle follows inexorably from the physical battle. If one player has a go-to shot or tactic which he can execute relatively safely without fear of error against the other who has to do something difficult or unnatural to combat the tactic the first player has a huge mental advantage; this will increase as he uses his shot/tactic attritionally as the match wears on and it becomes more difficult for his opponent to combat the tactic with unnatural or risky brilliance. This is true in my view of the Fed/Nadal and Nadal/Djokovic rivalries, but the Djoko/Federer rivalry is more evenly balanced because neither has a safe goto tactic which puts the other under greater pressure.

Yes agree with that Barry.

One factor to consider though is the weather. If it's windy, Nadal might find himself with a good advantage as it will take some sharpness away from Djoko. I remember in IW or Miami it was very windy and that had cost Djoko the first set. It took him a while to settle.

It's one think being able to handle Nadal's topspin and another to handle it in swirly windy conds.

But I just checked and I don't think the wind is going to be an issue.

In the Nadal and Murray match they mentioned a player had put on 3.5kg of muscle between Wimbers and Now - did anyone catch whether they were reffering to Nadal or Murray. Be interesting if it was Nadal.

I have to say that this tournament Djoko has not quite looked like the Djoko we have seen all year. Nadal the last few matches looks to be in better form than we have seen all year, with the Winners/UE ratio very high. I think if their form carries to the final in this way that the games could all be very close. Having said that i still put Djoko favourite, just not a clearly as in the previous matches.

Agree with that Tom, Novak is not quite as hot as he was in the spring, but people said the same thing during wimbeldon and he won it. I am of the same mind that this is going to be a real fight one way or the other. And I am sure that toni has a few wrinkles for Novak that Novak will maybe have to deal with on the fly.

I have been going there for ten days. From what we have seen, wind is not a big factor at that time of the day.

Both will be feeling fresh after a day's rest.

It comes down to tactics. As Barrystar mentioned above, Nadal is not hitting close to the lines although I am not sure that would be enough to overcome Djoko. Rafa needs a fresh approach and confident shot-making. Taking early lead would be definite advantage.

Good to have you on board 606v2 Leff.

Have you watched Nadal live this year? How high are Nadal's average shots, compared to others?

Good post Leff, the first set is so crucial in tennis, especially in a final, and especially in a final against a guy you have lost 5 times in a row to. Nadal definetly needs to change up his patterns and his tactics, forehand up the line is going to be very important for him. And for Novak if he serves well I don't think he can lose, because I think he will find away to get breaks against Rafa and get after Rafa's serve.

Alot depends on both players. For example last year at the USO i thin k Nadal lost serve once all tournament. thats astonishing really on his perceived weakest surface when serve is not a known weapon of his. I thought against Murray his serve held up well, especially as many games went to Deuce and therefore were closed under pressure. Djoko though is a different man this year, but i also think he is not above nerves and memories of last year. Therefore there's good argument both was. Personally i think it may very simply come down to who plays there own way better - form.

Still favour Djoko though

Tenez wrote:
Have you watched Nadal live this year? How high are Nadal's average shots, compared to others?

I watched two Nadal matches live at the US Open, including the last one vs Murray. Some of Nadal's top-spun shots go high, but they are not like the moon balls coming from the likes of Gabby Sabbatini or Sanchez-Vicario. The ball travels faster, not quite as high, and there is more spin. Some players (e.g., Roddick) are not comfortable dealing with those shots from Nadal whereas Novak doesn't seem to be bothered. Sampras would have been least bothered by that stuff on grass or hard courts.

socal1976 wrote:And for Novak if he serves well I don't think he can lose, because I think he will find away to get breaks against Rafa and get after Rafa's serve.

My biggest worry for Rafa is his second serve. Novak is among the best returners today, perhaps the best. Rafa must get about 60-70% first serves in. Although his first serve is not lethal, it offers him a better chance of putting Novak on the defense.

It's time for the #7 train commute to Flushing.

My wife supports Rafa and my 6-year-old daughter cheers for him too. And, I have noticed that all the women in our corporate booth cheer for Rafa. It's something about women and Spaniards, I suppose.

All I want is a good match loaded with great shots and rallies.

wow wrote:Well nadal is no federer

Do you really think that Nadal is nowhere as good as Federer. Nadal has won more Masters 1000 titles than anyone in history, is 4th in the all time Grand Slam winners list, is the youngest player to have won the career Grand Slam, is the only other player (after Agassi) to have won all 4 Grand Slams and the Olympics.
Even Andy Murray said after the semi that Nadal is the best player ever.
If a 30 year old Federer can come so close to beating Djokovic then what will a 25 year old Nadal do?
Lets just hope it turns out to be a classic match

Leff wrote:

Tenez wrote:
Have you watched Nadal live this year? How high are Nadal's average shots, compared to others?

I watched two Nadal matches live at the US Open, including the last one vs Murray. Some of Nadal's top-spun shots go high, but they are not like the moon balls coming from the likes of Gabby Sabbatini or Sanchez-Vicario. The ball travels faster, not quite as high, and there is more spin. Some players (e.g., Roddick) are not comfortable dealing with those shots from Nadal whereas Novak doesn't seem to be bothered. Sampras would have been least bothered by that stuff on grass or hard courts.

Sure moonballing has evolved since Wilander time. But it;s the same principle. Just applied with much more force and new technology.

Sampras wouuld have hated it with his flat shots. He lost his first 5 matches versus Chang so I doubt he could have handle Nadal's top spin. Too difficult to time, especially on teh BH.

Leff wrote:My wife supports Rafa and my 6-year-old daughter cheers for him too. And, I have noticed that all the women in our corporate booth cheer for Rafa. It's something about women and Spaniards, I suppose.

That's certainly a fact everywhere. Everytime I watched Nadal live, the feminine crowd are 95% for Rafa.

braveheart101 wrote:

wow wrote:Well nadal is no federer

Even Andy Murray said after the semi that Nadal is the best player ever.

Yes, and Murray's opinion really counts because he is a multiple slam winner! I recall Murray say that about Federer many times in the past too. Players say what is expected of them to say. Nadal's 19 masters wins are the result of having 14 of those victories on clay, where he is the undisputed king of the surface. The rest on hard courts have been very few. If there were more masters tournaments on clay the number would be much higher.

Federer has always been a bad match up for Djokovic just as Nadal for Federer. Just because Djoko nearly lost to an ageing Federer does not mean Nadal will wipe the floor with him.

Interesting quote from Nadal regarding the final. He says (on bbc) -

"But just play aggressive, try to play a similar match to last year here. I saw that match a lot of times and I know what I have to do."

That maybe so but he is forgetting that a year ago Djokovic was a different player. That match counts for nothing in my opinion unlike the last 5 especially the 2 h/c finals. If he attempts to play Djoko the way he did last year he may struggle. Lets note forget Djoko took the one and ONLY set off him and they traded breaks several times. Nadal played the crucial points better nearer the end of the sets.

Fedsfan I never said Nadal would wipe the floor with him, I just think it will be a close match which could go either way.
As for most of his titles being on clay I remember a time when everyone said Nadal would always struggle at US and Australian Opens but he won them both.
Why doen't Murray's opinion count for anything?. He's been a regular in the worlds top 4 over the past few years surely that counts for something even though he hasn't won a grand slam. If you are going to use that as an example then would you say that Del Potro's opinion counts more than Murray's because he has won the US Open

Murray hasn't played federer in a while. Another loss to him at GS level and federer is the best again.

So team Nadal has given it a long thought and came up with this new gameplan against Djoko:
Hit it higher over the net.......... brilliant!

BTW: where's the live score thread?

Leff wrote:Any thoughts on what Nadal could do tactically?

Tenez wrote:Moonball higher.

You see GP....I new it was Nadal's only option...

LOve u djoker, The superman, saviour of tennis.

I love love djoker. What a point to win! SUperhumanseque.

Almost got it right

You did indeed, Nadal was hopeless, Fed had way more chances (even if it was 2), Nadal had None.

And the quality of tennis was appalling.

I thought the quality of tennis was very very high.

It was a delight watching Novak's service returns and backhand down-the-line passing shots.

Several long rallies were out-of-the-world.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0pegu0Pjx0

How would you compare the quality of the above match to the final played yesterday?