Why I think the McLaren will not be competitive

As a Ferrari fan, when I saw McLaren launch their 2011 car I was genuinely worried. The car is very revolutionary, and I immediately thought that this car would either blow us away, or it would be a complete dog. I don't mean to offend anyone here, but Hamilton is the better McLaren driver, and I really can't stand the thought of Lewis being a double world champion while Alonso still has two titles.

When I first saw the pictures of the Ferrari F150, I was really disappointed with what looked like an F10 tweaked to the 2011 regulations, and with a higher nose. There were plenty of rumours around Ferrari's "extreme" car during the winter, and the car Ferrari launched didn't look like a potential championship winning car. In fact I was also disappointed when Red Bull revealed it's RB7, because like the Ferrari, it looked too similar to the previous years design.

Unless there are major aerodynamic rule changes (like 2009), the obvious thing to do would be to take the evolutionary approach and build on already good foundations, thus improving the understanding of the cars and fine tuning it in order to extract it's maximum potential... so I was really surprised (and quite impressed) to see McLaren's revolutionary car. McLaren were really brave to go against the general design approach of evolution - which sadly for them seems to be the most effective at this point.

In 2009, Adrian Newey built a brilliant car with a really good base. Newey has even said that the 2009 rule changes played a very important part in RB's success. From this good base, he evolved his cars - each year improving things and making the car faster each year. By keeping the general DNA of the car the same, you are working with a proven concept and it guarantees that, providing you have a good base, you won't be struggling the next season.

So far, testing has proved that this evolutionary approach is the best - Ferrari for example look like they still have superior braking, a stable car with good mechanical grip, and in addition, they have very impressive reliability. Both Ferrari and Red Bull have done a brilliant job over the winter to evolve their cars and made their cars more complete in terms of reliability, stability and mechanical grip - and yet they have still been able to make their cars innovative (like Red Bull's exhausts system and Ferrari's extreme rear push rod).

In my opinion, the fundamental flaw for McLaren is the design approach - they have gone for a really radical car and they are now faced with the problem of trying to understand their car - they can talk about "potential" of the car, but unlocking that potential will not be easy and will probably take a while. In addition, their lack of understanding with their revolutionary car has meant that they faced many problems with reliability, which further prohibited their mileage in testing. McLaren can come up with some really impressive aerodynamic innovations (like the F-Duct last year), but where they are lacking is the mechanical side of things - and this comes from a lack of understanding of the car. Last year they went radical and they had problems on bumpy circuits, while this year the talk in testing has been about McLaren's lack of grip. Unless they stick with a base and develop it, they will not achieve the levels of success that they once did.

This year specifically, they are in even more trouble because of the lack of mileage and set up work on the car. They decided to bring their 2010 car to the Valencia test in order to gain better understanding of the tyres - when actually it just hindered them. The MP4-25 had an F-Duct, different downforce levels, push rod suspension, different weight distribution, etc. - and ultimately the data that they got from Valencia was obsolete. Based on what the experts have been saying about the 2011 cars, Ferrari and Red Bull (who seem to have the best cars) are much further along with understanding how the Pirelli's work and how to set the car up to manage the tyres and achieve the best from the car.

It's a shame really, because McLaren's car last year was a brilliant base, and as the season progressed McLaren started to extract the potential from that car. I actually think that at the final race, McLaren were very close to RB's pace if not faster. Some mechanical modifications along with some innovative parts would have been sufficient for them this season in my opinion.

Thanks for reading. Please let me know your views.

personally my order for 2011 is

1) red bull ( sand bagging in barcelona test yet faster then anyone else)
2) ferrari - due to massa being fixed with a scoop to ram alonso's opponent's out the way.
3) renault - shame kubica is missing but believe they've made a big step up
4) mclaren - lack of downforce could be a issue for button and radical things don't always work
5) toro rosso - suprise . double floor looks ingenious been up there during all testing
6)mercedes - im expecting a tough season for schumi being tonked by nico again .

Fernando,

Either Red Bull or Ferrari have the fastest car, but it's unclear at this point. I think Sam Michael summed it up perfectly:

"One day I think Red Bull, the next Ferrari. It's so tight and that could change at the last Barcelona test when everyone puts their first race updates on the car. The Red Bull is a more developed car than the Ferrari. If you look at its exhaust system, the back end, there's much less to come from that car then there is from the Ferrari. If Ferrari brings an upgrade package that gives them something at the last test, they could nip in front."

although the test sessions have so many variables to take into account, fuel, tires etc, Ferrari have been the most consistant.
Is this a sign of things to come?

My outside tip is Williams, the new regualtions with Kers and the rear wing are playing right into their hands and their car looks to have adapted great to this.