Down to the bare bones for Tigers

http://www.thisisleicestershire.co.uk/Keiron-Brookes-joins-Tigers-injury-list/story-13373111-detail/story.html

To summarise the players missing for this weekends game;

Props;
Castro
Cole
White
Brookes
Ayerza

Locks;
Deacon
Parling
Skivington

Backrow;
Crane
Newby
Croft
Waldrom

Halfbacks;
Youngs
Flood

Backs;
Manu
Alesana
Geordan
Agulla

18 players missing and Sarries are coming to town, could be the biggest ever loss at Welford Rd stupid RWC.

Sam take heart. We at Saracens struggle to score tries. Also we struggled against your 2nd string side at VR last season. Plus we are in pretty woeful form. I can still see us losing as we flatter to deceive in matches we start as heavy favourites.

Leicester are famed for their strength in depth. Can't imagine what your bench will look like though.....

Are you playing in the game?

Also the positive for you is that the legendary Matthew Tait is back. Will probably be carted off injured after 5 minutes but you can dream....

Are you playing in the game?

Sadly the recruitment drive hasn't focussed on fly halfs/centres, it's props we don't seem to have.

Team likely to be;

Stanko, Chuter, Holford
Kitchener, Slater
Mafi, Salvi, Woods
Grindal, Ford
Allen, Twelvetrees
Tait, Hamilton, Smith

Bench; Harris, Hawkins/Youngs, Bucknall, Pienaar (not played since VR last season)/de Carpienter, Armes, Young, Staunton, Morris.

That team is probabley weaker than the one that played at VR last season, hopefully the home support will make a difference. Tigers attack has been good but our defence has been awful, so expect tries in this one.

Sam I don't think the home support will make much difference unless they influence the ref. Saracens prefer to play away from home than at VR. We won 8 out of 11 away games in the AP last season.

We at Saracens like WR, a much nicer rugby ground than our own (which isn't one), the team are more comfortable there. It's why Saracens like the stoop and FG too.

Never heard of Holford. Would hope Gill if picked could put pressure on him.

If I was the Saracens coach I would have Brits on the bench, possibly Saull too.

boo hoo for the tigers

Sorry mate, you'll get no sympathy here I'm afraid. Welcome to the world that most of us live in. Yes, Tigers have lost a lot of players to the World Cup and have injuries, but they also have a bigger squad than most to cover for it.

We are all in the same boat. We had 2 under 18 players and 10 who were under 21 in our squad to face Saints last week.

You just have to get on with it like we all do week in week out, even when there isn't a World Cup on.

Sam the positives are that your 3rd string side get good AP experience which will serve them well for the future.

Could make some interesting selection headaches when the big boys return for the world cup.

Also a question has to be asked - with so many injuries to the Leicester boys could the training regime not be to blame or is it just bad luck?

I personally think Saracens have performed so well in the latter stages of the last two seasons because they have been fresher.

Plus the trips to the likes of Miami and Octoberfest I am sure help!

Also a question has to be asked - with so many injuries to the Leicester boys could the training regime not be to blame or is it just bad luck?

Cockerill revealed at the start of the summer that the amount of physicality in training and the number of pre season games were to be reduced as the squad was looking rather thread bare and he didn't want to risk injuries.

Sam I don't think the home support will make much difference

We have an exceptional home record and once lost at home LY (we both know how close that game was as well). When our performances are bad a return to Welford Rd normally brings a victory which lifts spirits and after opening day defeat much will be expected of Tigers on their return home.

Never heard of Holford

Tigers academy graduate who never quite made the grade (England age grade international though), went off to London Welsh then a brief stint at Wasps and is now at Nottingham who we have loaned him from. Good Championship player but I don't know how he'll hold up in the prem. Don't know what the news is on Bucknall I would have expected him to start but Cockers seemed to suggest otherwise in the interview. We've got a couple of England under 20s in Bower and Harris who will make up the bench as needed. Can't believe we are down 4 tightheads though and it looks like Brookes won't play again until 2012 after picking up an injury in last weekends game.

Sam I am only basing the lack of importance of home advantage on the last two visits of Saracens to WR.

WR is a lot less imposing to Saracens than other clubs because we have won there the last two times. Was it easy? Of course not! It happened though.

Saracens will be facing a much weaker side than the previous two occasions.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/rugby_union/english/8659284.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/rugby_union/english/9412910.stm

As I said before Saracens mostly ignore home records as they mean little to the team.

Does it mean Saracens are guaranteed a win? No they'll have to fight just as hard as if they were facing a full strength Leicester. If Exeter can do it certainly Saracens can.

I think Sarries will win but Tigers are lifted by playing at home. Sarries do seem to come off well against us but we have a long history of struggling against rush defences (first the Pests and now you lot). Welford Rd is great motivation for the players and having met some retired Tigers they are full of stories about not being able to hear anything in the changing rooms because of the wooden Crumbie stand reverberating with stamping feet and voices of the supporters.

I just hope the current crop get as physched up as some of the old guard did when hearing all that noise. Be interesting to see how Ford copes with the sarries pressure and I will also be interested to see if Armes and de Carpienter get game time as they are ball carrying players we are hoping to see blossom.

18 Players missing! Pah! Bloody luxury. We (Leinster) dream of only having 18 players missing. Try 24 yah big jessies.

Yes Jen but you are a) in a league where all the other teams are also down to the bare bones or are considerabley weaker than Leinster and b) don't face serious financial constraints if relegation or failure to secure HEC rugby happen.

When Tigers are 18ish (varies depending on the casualties) down they are playing teams missing very few in comparison, Exeter for example were a handful last year and were only missing players to the RWC who hadn't played for them yet. They had a near full strength team out.

Just heard rumours that Bucknall will not be fit for the weekend either which is another prop down and O'Campo the academy tighthead we'd turn to after Bower is also out with a nasty knee injury. 7 props down, we're going to get stuffed at the scrum.

So, Stano and Halford to start with 20 year olds Harris (half decent scrummager this lad) and Bower probabley on the bench after that it's another loan or Fraiser Balmain to be called up from the academy.

formerly known as Sam wrote:

Team likely to be;

Stanko, Chuter, Holford
Kitchener, Slater
Mafi, Salvi, Woods
Grindal, Ford
Allen, Twelvetrees
Tait, Hamilton, Smith

Considering the amount of players you have out, this does go to show the absurd strength in depth you have. That is still a strong side. I confess I know little about Holford, but the rest are all decent players and many would be starters for at least 8 of the other Jeff sides. I think the main issue you will have is not the loss of quality players, but the lack of cohesion. Due to the strength in depth, some of these players simply havent played together enough. On paper and at home that team will still prove a stern test to Sarries - the only downside is that WR is not as impossing to Sarries as it used to be.

The last two times Leicester beat Saracens, Leicester had a full strength team (close to it). The expected Leicester side won't be close to full strength.

Saracens are missing 8 players so it isn't quite the same as Exeter.

We might gain the upperhand in the scrum but it's importance could well be limited.

I am more worried about the breakdown battle and what the Saracens backline do.

If the Saracens backline fires (rare but you never know) it could be a long day for the Leicester backs. We have the firepower but will we use it?

With the currently awful Tigers defence your backline should have a field day, Newcastle had fun against us and nearly won so you should have plenty of opportunity. Though hopefully Billy won't have an absurdly bad day with the boot this week, we don't want Cockers to have an excuse to recall Staunton!

Yappy the players are pretty good but as you say cohesion isn't there and there are serious weaknesses in the squad at present which could be covered if we had first choice players in other areas to take the strain but at the minute we don't. The lineout was better vs Falcons but a sterner test awaits this week and ditto the scrum. I'm hoping Tom Youngs either starts or gets a run out as he looked really good off the bench last week and would add a lot of dynacism to the pack.

Sam how did the Tigers scrum do against the Wasps scrum as we pulverised the Wasps one.

Don't forget that was a full strength Newcastle team at home. You did well as they are no pushovers up there.

HKC the place Saracens really don't like playing is Kingsholm.

The scrum was very poor vs Wasps but in control throughout vs the Falcons, may have had something to do with Big Julian White returning as he is a machine in the scrum but has hurt his shoulder. Chutes isn't the greatest scrummager and some of his decisions vs the Falcons were poor and really we'd want better from the captain. He risks being overtaken by Hawkins or Youngs, maybe both. At least Boris Stankovitch found some form last weekend. I'd expect Sarries to control the scrum, any less wouldn't bode well for you guys.

Newcastle are a challenge at home but 6 missed kicks and a poor choice to go for goal when a certain penalty try was on the cards really didn't help us.

Its the tigers fault for having so many internationals, give us Salvi back!

Bit harsh there as of the 12 that have gone to the RWC (inc Waldrom) only 5 were internationals when they signed, the other 7 (including 6 England internationals) were nurtured through and developed by Tigers. Add to that the 7 or 8 injuries we've picked up and that's just bad luck.

Not sure Salvi wants to return judging by this interview;

http://www.thisisleicestershire.co.uk/Happy-Salvi-hails-Leicester-Tigers-complete/story-13290177-detail/story.html

It has also taken us years to get our hands on a proper scavenger that lives up to their billing, he's going nowhere.

I do feel for Leicester here while many don't. When the game went proffessional English sides had so many Internationals from many areas of the world (Wales,Scotland,Irish Samoa,Tonga etc). That usually meant when Internationals played games the top sides all lost players at a fairly equal footing. Sadly however the landscape in the Aviva has changed. Ireland & Wales are holding on to their own players (mostly). The French leagues finances is seeing a migration of the top current internationals heading there instead.

Leicester are probably the only side still trying to some degree to promote playing for England as the ultimate goal. Now I understand peoples viewpoint that they didnt have to sign these players but lets be realistic here, I doubt 50% of the Aviva sides could afford the players anyway.

I understand the league needs to be competitive but there comes a point someons has to make a call. French, Irish and Welsh sides are getting increasingly stronger by retaining their stars and aquiring top overseas signings. If Leicester are not allowed to do the same how can they expect to be competitve in Europe? Handicapping a side who have the resources is not the way to promote competition in a league.

The aim to be should be to seek a better standard of teams. It forces the teams to improve their standards to catch up. Holding sides back is never the answer. My argument is that no matter how much you limit the top sides you will never see bottom sides winning trophies (aka Newcastle, Sale, Exeter etc).

I know nobody wants to see a totally dominated league but I would argue that there are signs already such a gap. Will it be good for English Club Rugby if we do not see a English champion in the next 10 years in the HC? Under the current format I would suggest there is a good chance that may happen.

And that in turn may affect people/business in English league sides. Can that chance really be taken? Because my view here is if SKY ever decided to drop Premiership games it could potentially kill the league anyway.

Nothing will change though due to the voteing systems. The sides with money are outweighed in votes by the ones who would rather stop them from widening the gap.

On a side note: Yes sides like Ospreys and Leinster etc are stripped of talent but they dont have spending caps and have access to all the best youth players in their countries and can play an unlimted amount of players in the league. My understanding is that Prem Clubs are capped to roster numbers.

My understanding is that Prem Clubs are capped to roster numbers.

Don't think so but the wage cap and the rather farcical ruling that classes academy players as first teamers and so salary cap qualifiable if they play more than so many games largely restrict the numbers.

With that kind of attitude Welshmushroom you'd be very popular on the Tigers forums. The lack of ambition in terms of growth shown by a number of AP clubs and in particular by the RFU is not a positive thing.

Welshmushroom fair enough to have your opinion on the AP but there are just a few little errors I should really point out.

Sky no longer have all the AP games. They share them with ESPN. ESPN have more.

Sale and Newcastle have won the AP. Exeter could well win the AP one day as they have the support base.

2 years ago would you have expected Saracens to be the English champions?

Quins and Saints have been relegated in the last 5 years. It's the beauty of the AP.

I would happily bet with anyone that an AP side will win the HC this season.

Every England team in the HC could threaten. Could you say the same of all the French,Irish and Welsh clubs?

Are for example the Welsh clubs really that strong?

England have the best young talent in the NH shown by repeated strong showings in the U20s world cup and the U20s 6 nations. Arguably 2nd only to NZ.

There is a frightening level of depth which England have not yet unleashed.

Even Saracens who are perceived as being a South African club are churning out young guns like Tom Mercey and Noah Cato (now Northampton), Alex Goode,Owen Farrell,Andy Saull and Jackson Wray,George Kruis, Jamie George, James Short,Ben Ransom (all ex England U20s bar Short). Also they have invested in young guns like Marcus Watson,Harry Spencer and Mako Vunipola to aid with their development.

Players like Matt Hankin,Scott Spurling and Tom Jubb are upcoming too.

2 years ago would you have expected Saracens to be the English champions?

A few people would have been willing to place a bet as a wealthy backer happy to write off multi-million pound losses allows a team more flexibility financially.

I think Welshmushroom is getting at the lack of off field growth experienced by at least half of the league and the proposed handicapping by way of further wage cap reduction suggested by London Irish at the end of last season suggested more of a drag you down rather than aspire to better you approach being adopted.

Sale and Newcastle have won the AP

Both underpinned by a wealthy backer and both fell fast following those victories, not really sustainable growth.

Sam Saracens have had a wealthy backer for some time - Nigel Wray. He brought in stars but did they lead to a title? No. Does the Saracens team consist of stars? Not really.

The ideal situation would be an universal cap agreed to by all NH countries.

Sale and Newcastle sunk because they lost their best players too soon without replacing them. Same happened to Wasps. Leicester are unique because you replace your stars with new ones.

You replaced the likes of Kay,Moody,Back,Goode,Vesty,Healey with players who can do the job.

It is all about clever recruitment and transfers. Leicester are very good on the transfer market the likes of Allen,Flood,Young etc are smart investments.

Matthew Tait hasn't worked out yet but it could be a masterstroke.

Does the Saracens team consist of stars?

Teams under a salary cap that invest in 'stars' rarely win anything, ask Bath fans. Talent that is nurtured through is generally cheaper and more loyal. Sarries have certainly benefitted from Wray and the Saffa backers didn't they write off a hefty loss in 2010? Aren't they bankrolling the new stadium?

Fact of the matter is the RFU should be helping to bankroll new stadiums and homes of rugby as a way of putting in place sustainable links so that clubs can progress. It's no real suprise the only two profitable clubs in the AP have their own ground and both reached finals last season.

I feel for the Tigers I really do

I am not saying Saracens didn't benefit from the sugar daddies. Of course they did but the win was built on teamwork,hardwork and resolute defence.

Yes of course they are bankrolling the new stadium. We need it to happen. Investing in the champions is a no brainer.

Were most of the players well known before? No not really. The likes of Short and Farrell, the unknown English young guns were two of the stars.

I agree the RFU and Premiership rugby should step in. Saracens are lucky. Our stock is currently high meaning the investors are unlikely to back out soon meaning they will help create a sustainable future for Saracens.

Moving to Copthall means we will be back in London, we'll have our own rugby stadium. The current support base will not be alienated because the heartland is North London and Hertfordshire which is within in an hour's drive of Barnet.

It's the clubs like Wasps and London Irish who are in the biggest trouble.

I personally think Adams Park is a smaller,uglier version of Vicarage Road.

London Irish are stuck at the Madejski till 2026. It's a nice stadium but it's a football one.

beshocked wrote: I would happily bet with anyone that an AP side will win the HC this season.

Every England team in the HC could threaten. Could you say the same of all the French,Irish and Welsh clubs?

Are for example the Welsh clubs really that strong?

Ill be honest the Form team in Europe is Leinster at the moment. They will be the favourites regardless of peoples personal views.

Every team? Really? Gloucester without a recognised Tigthhead as well? Don't be silly

My statement with Welsh Clubs related to the retention of Home Grown players. You no longer see the best players playing in an English League which used to be the case with players like Bateman, Howley, Charvis etc.


Anyway your missing my point essentially. Leicester have a pedigree enviroment who produce champions. Now do you want to see that enviroment full of English Players or people who cannot represent England? Because essentially thats what will happen if they dont make changes to the league. There is a direct link between England at International level and its top club sides. If those top club sides steer away from English Internationals as a result of financing laws it stands to reason it will likely affect the International team.

Does any one know if/when any of the player and finance rules are up for review? Is it constantly reviewed by the RFU or only every few years or something?

I thought it was voted on by Premier Rugby. They have final say on Salary Cap, funding allocations, player release etc.

The only thing the RFU decide on is the Funding they al get paid which the Remier Rugby Group share out equally regardless of RFU rules. There is currently a 10 year agreement in place which I believe started 2 years ago so has a while to run before the RFU negotiate a new one.

I bet the Clubs thought they where really clever when they created Premier Rugby but I wonder how many of them wish they could opt out now?

It was 8 years from 2008 (runs out after the 2015 WC)

Here's a link to the RFU release

http://www.rfu.com/News/2007/November/News%20Articles/RfuAndPrlSignNewEightYearAgreement.aspx?a=1&y=2007

The RFU play the clubs directly for each member of the EPS. The clubs then share the sponsership/tv moneys to smooth the difference.

The number of NEQ players has dropped over the last few years.

Leinster might be the favourites but would they find it easy against a English team at Twickenham if they make it? No.

I said of all the Irish,Welsh and French clubs. Can you see for example Connacht picking up a win?

Gloucester haven't lost a match at home for a long long time. Missing one prop isn't going to be the difference surely?

Would it really be that surprising to see the English sides dominate the HC this year?

I thought it was voted on by Premier Rugby. They have final say on Salary Cap, funding allocations, player release etc.

Player release is mandatory during international windows there is nothing that can be done by any team to stop an international joining up with his national team during an IRB International window. If a club or body tried to stop that then I think the penalties are quite severe. The PRL do currently charge the RFU for greater access to players but that agreement had to come into force sooner or later as the two were at each others throats and more damage would have been done to both sides otherwise.

The only thing the RFU decide on is the Funding they al get paid which the Remier Rugby Group share out equally regardless of RFU rules

All clubs get some funding but the clubs that provide the most players still get a larger share. It's not equal but the income is smoothed so that everyone gets at least a taste.

I bet the Clubs thought they where really clever when they created Premier Rugby but I wonder how many of them wish they could opt out now?

The clubs need the PRL, the RFU would still be only too happy to re-organise the clubs into regions and bring in central contracting. It would end up like English cricket if you believe some of the rumours. The problem with the PRL is that all the clubs are more than a little self serving and there is always a large amount of bickering and political moving within it.

The number of NEQ players has dropped over the last few years..

The numbers of foreign internationals has dropped noteabley since the French teams started offering better wages. Currently a good chunk of the AP clubs are underpinned by foreign players below international status. There has been some move towards utilising academies again though and the RFU move in to make the age grade schemes more efficient has been positive.

beshocked wrote:Leinster might be the favourites but would they find it easy against a English team at Twickenham if they make it? No.

I said of all the Irish,Welsh and French clubs. Can you see for example Connacht picking up a win?

Gloucester haven't lost a match at home for a long long time. Missing one prop isn't going to be the difference surely?

Would it really be that surprising to see the English sides dominate the HC this year?

Erm, you have seen the groups haven't you? Basically in order to really enhance you chances you need to pick up a home qtr final. Bath have Leinster in their group and the champions will be favourites to top that group.

Gloucester & Harlequins have Tolouse in their group. Again the French powerhouse will be to much for both of them and the bookies have them favourites. To answer your Gloucester reply, the Tighthead Prop is in my eyes the most important player in the current game. Without a good one your backs wont see enough of the ball. To illustrate this fact, has any side ever won the Heineken Cup without and International Tighthead Prop? No. So yes basically I dont expect Gloucester to front up against Tolouse in that area.

Leicester have pulled a stinker of a group with my danger pick Clermont in it. Ulster at Ravenhill are a tough nut to crack for any side. So not even the most one eyed Leicester fan would disagree that Leicester have their work cut out to qualify top of this group. Even if they do I'm not sure they will be getting a home qtr final.

London Irish have Blues, Edinburgh & Racing. Racing and the Blues will test them but they do stand a good chance in this group.

Northampton have got Scarlets and Munster in their group. Munster will be pool favourites here. Scarlets will give Northampton a game at Home as well.

Saracens have Biarritz and Ospreys. I actually do think Saracens may top this group.

So out of 7 entries I reckon only 2 will make the qtr finals with neither getting a home draw. So looking at where the final is played may become irrelevant for English Sides. And Yes I would be really really suprised if an English side managed to win it.

With Regards to Connacht no I dont see them Qualifing from the Group Stage. Thats also the case for Edinburgh, Aironi, Treviso & Glasgow. That said I also think several of the English teams will make the last 8 as shown above so I'm not sure what your relevance is.

At the very least I doubt we will see some English Club side domination, and the biggest reason for this is that they do not have the squad strength to challenge the best sides in the competition. Saracens and Leicester probably where the best equipped and I've stated before that I dont even think Leicester may qualify this term.

The Form book rarely lies and the fact English sides are on the slide in the European ranking is proof of this. I know the system for ranking isnt perfect but it is an indicator of favourites status based on past seasons (previous 4 I believe).

Welshmushroom the European ranking is a load of rubbish let's be honest.

http://www.ercrugby.com/eng/ranking.php

Just a few howlers for you to chew over -

Saracens behind 6 English teams - despite beating Leicester 3 times in a row, Quins 4 times in a row, Bath 5 times in a row, Saints 5 times in a row - all in the AP. I know Europe is not the AP but look at the quality Saracens lost to. They don't go down to rubbish sides.

Their losses in Europe in the last 2 years are Toulon away, Racing Metro, Leinster home and away, Clermont home and away.

That's it.

Numerous teams above Racing Metro and Montpellier including Worcester,Treviso and Glasgow.

The only thing that cannot be argued is the top 3!

Biarritz and Cardiff Blues ludicrously high.

Ospreys too high.

Perpignan and Stade Francais in the top 10 yet didn't qualify for the HC.


I have seen the groups I actually think Quins and Gloucester could well double team Toulouse.

Very few sides win at Kingsholm. Quins are in a rich vein of form - didn't they beat Toulouse not too long ago?

Saracens are good enough to get a home quarter.

Leicester will be in a titanic battle but their big match experience could see them through.

London Irish could do well.

Bath could surprise.

Northampton haven't got a bad pool. They have done very well in Europe recently.


Surely even a one eyed Welshman doesn't think Cardiff Blues are the 4th best side in Europe?

Quins are in a rich vein of form - didn't they beat Toulouse not too long ago?

Wasn't that Wasps? Saw Tolouse's first game of the season and they were dire. I've not seen the since but I've heard they are performing better which couldn't be that difficult. I think they could be caught out by a team on their money, not sure if that will be Quins or Gloucester but it's not the foregone conclusion it used to be.

beshocked wrote:I have seen the groups I actually think Quins and Gloucester could well double team Toulouse.

Very few sides win at Kingsholm. Quins are in a rich vein of form - didn't they beat Toulouse not too long ago?

Ok lets look at this statement first. Tolouse will win both home games against those sides. Are you that certain Tolouse cant beat either away from home when they get back so many of their French Internationals. I'll grant you that Tolouse can be up and down but they have the best HC pedigree in the competition. I would suggest Quins and Gloucester are underdogs. The bookies would agree. Your statement is the equivelant of me saying "All 3 Welsh Sides will qualify for the Qtrs". It could happen but its very unliklely. Similar to your boast.

beshocked wrote: Saracens are good enough to get a home quarter.

Erm so are Ospreys and Biarritz. This group is likely to be decided on bonus points. As such its unlikely the best qtr's will come from this group.

beshocked wrote:Leicester will be in a titanic battle but their big match experience could see them through.

Yes they could. Its probably going to be the team that underestimates Ulster that will fail to progress. I concur with you that given Leicesters history though your take is likely the favoured outcome so wouldnt disagree with the favourites tag here.

beshocked wrote:London Irish could do well.

Bath could surprise.

London Irish and Bath have zero pedigree in the competition. None at all. The only reason they rank so high is that they do well in the Tier 2 European Competition. Neither are capable of winning this HC this year.

beshocked wrote:Northampton haven't got a bad pool. They have done very well in Europe recently

They did very well last season. They also got Munster in their group and given how their second string are playing in the League I dont fancy your chances if im honest.

beshocked wrote:Surely even a one eyed Welshman doesn't think Cardiff Blues are the 4th best side in Europe?

Totally agree with this point. That said you don't see me saying a Welsh side will win the HC either. If it happens great but I'm realistic. You on the other hand are not being realistic. The favourites come from France and Ireland. They naturally will play it down though.....

Welshmushroom a little stat attack for you. Every single time the HC final has been at Twickenham an English team has won it. 3/3

Saracens beat Biarritz and Ospreys in their last matches against each other.

Both memorable in their own way. One was a confident Ospreys side crashing out to an unfancied Saracens side in the HC quarters - 2007-8. In the same season Saracens inflicted on Biarritz their heaviest ever defat in European rugby. That was a much weaker Saracens than now.

Not really the same because the Welsh sides flatter to deceive. Quins are the current Amlin holders.

Biarritz and Ospreys are both overrated sides who will be shown to be just that in my opinion. Biarritz have had an easy ride in the HC for pretty much every season. Not this time.

London Irish got to a HC semi in 2007-8.

Northampton will have their full strength side to face Munster.

When you say the favourites come from France and Ireland you basically mean Leinster,Munster and Toulouse with Clermont as an outside bet.

England have Saints,Saracens and Leicester all capable of doing well.

Do not forget that each and every main contender in the HEC is also significant contributor to the RWC.

The HEC starts just about the same time as the players step off the plane home.

Some will be knackered, some will be injured and maybe some will be banned.

Prior to Christmas (at least) I'd expect some majorly unexpected results.

Look statistically England are entering more sides than anyother nation so on a pure chance basis the odds are improved.

Yes if a English side can reach the final then great news for your stat. I'm saying no English sides will make the final becuase they wont secure home qtrs. Basically time will tell on which one of us was right on this one.

I'm not sure what your points on Saracens have to do with anything. I concur that Saracens represent Englands best chance as last seasons champions and given the group they are in.


And yes when I say France I do mean those teams you mentioned as they are going to be the likely favourites for Semi Final spots.

Anyway, you have managed to steer away from the total topic of this column. My simple point is this, the Premiership sides are split into 2 camps. Those who have the means to really become the best in Europe and those that dont. The only difference in the Prem compared to the other top leagues is that they are refused the right to do so. This wont improve standards of players. This will just pull your best sides down.

Portnoy you are correct. Harlequins are best placed to exploit this.

Welshmushroom Go on then clever cloggs give me your pool predictions.

I think Saracens have a good chance at a home quarter. With Treviso who are one of the weaker teams in the HC notching up bonus points will be easier.

Only Leinster of those favourites you mention has a little relatively easy path. It wouldn't be surprising to see the others fall.

There are divides in every league. Could you see Gwent Dragons being a top team? Connacht? I can't.

The main imbalance is when one or two clubs supply the bulk of the players. E.g. Northampton and Leicester for England, Leinster and Munster for Ireland, Toulouse for France.

Sure - I'll give a go:- I'll place them in order of each pool finish. Ill mark HQ (Home Qtr) and RU (Best runner up)

Pool 1
1. Munster - HQ
2. Northampton - RU
3. Scarlets
4. Castres

Pool 2
1. Blues
2. London Irish
3. Racing
4. Edinburgh

Pool 3
1. Leinster - HQ
2. Bath - RU
3. Montpellier
4. Glasgow

Pool 4
1. Clermont - HQ
2. Leicester
3. Ulster
4. Aironi

Pool 5
1. Saracens
2. Ospreys
3. Biarritz
4. Treviso

Pool 6
1. Tolouse - HQ
2. Harlequins
3. Gloucester
4. Connacht

Granted Pool 2 is difficult to call. London Irish could equally top this group and of all the Pools anyone could emerge from this group. The winner could even have a shot at a home qtr.

So for me your looking at these in the final 8

1. Leinster
2. Munster
3. Tolouse
4. Clermont
5. Saracens
6. Blues / London Irish
7. Northampton
8. Bath

If that happens I doubt we will see any away wins in the Qtrs this year. Thus ending English chances.

My take on it.

Pool 1
1. Northampton (HQ)
2. Munster
3. Scarlets
4. Castres

Pool 2
1. Racing Metro
2. London Irish
3. Blues
4. Edinburgh

Pool 3
1. Leinster - HQ
2. Bath - RU
3. Montpellier
4. Glasgow

Pool 4
1. Leicester (HQ)
2. Clermont RU
3. Ulster
4. Aironi

Pool 5
1. Saracens (HQ)
2. Ospreys
3. Biarritz
4. Treviso

Pool 6
1. Toulouse
2. Harlequins
3. Gloucester
4. Connacht

1. Leinster
2. Leicester
3. Saracens
4. Northampton
5. Toulouse
6. Racing Metro
7. Bath
8. Clermont


Quarter finals:

Leinster vs Clermont - Leinster win

Leicester vs Bath - Leicester win

Northampton vs Toulouse - Northampton win

Saracens vs Racing Metro - Saracens win


Semis
Leinster vs Northampton - Leinster win

Leicester vs Saracens - Saracens win

Final: Saracens vs Leinster - Saracens win

I can dream can't I?

Of course you can it is the HC after all thus the appeal.

You must be a Saracens fan though as topping the group will have been achievment enough. Securing a home qtr in that group is a bridge to far I reckon.

Good luck to Saracens though.

Pool 1
1. Munster - HQ
2. Northampton - RU
3. Scarlets
4. Castres

Just can't see that happening unless Munster completely turn around their form from last year. Even then Northampton have re-inforced well and have much better squad depth than last year. Castres are a real challenge especially away in France and we all know the Scarlets can cause a lot of damage if their backs get good ball. Munster have lost a lot of players to the RWC and that legendary pack of there's just isn't getting any younger.