Masterplan New Zealand an expert opinion on the upcoming quarter finals.

Here are some expert opinions on the quarter final clashes and their predictions.

Panel consists of:
Ex All Black player and coach, John Mitchell, current coach of the Golden lions.
Current coach of super XV Franchise Stormers and Currie Cup side Western Province, Allister Coetzee.
Ex Super XV and Currie Cup side Bulls coach, Heyneke Meyer.
Ex Springbok Scrum half Garth Wright.
Host: Joel Stransky

Springboks vs Australia
South Africa showed great discipline at defensive breakdwons and showed restraint with off the ball incidents.

Their strength is their defensive structure, ability to reorganise defence and scramble/cover defence. They do however sometimes make wrong decisions to come out of the defensive line. Tactical kicking is a strength and weakness, they must do contestable kicking which boils down to accuracy and must rather be done by 9 and not 10, preferable from momentum and not static ball.

Ball security for them is key. Sa must attack Australian scrum and shut down space with pressure on Genia and Cooper. Right shoulder will make it difficult fro Pocock to assist Cooper in defence. They must attack reverse markers in channel one from rucks. Select Willem Alberts over Spies to gain more momentum with go forward ball. Use mauling off line outs in poor conditions, but don’t overdo. Use edges around maul to attack and, use 8, 9, 12 by sucking in defence.

Make Australia use their thinkers/decision makers to tackle which will take them out of the immediate attack. Use 7 man lineout, get middle or tail ball, use du Preez, blindside wing, 12 and 13 going at Barnes and Cooper, SA did this a few years ago in Perth with great success and got over the advantage line every time. Getting tail ball will negate Pocock to compete at the breakdown as he will be in the middle of the maul and thus can’t turn over ball when the maul is brought to ground and will put Cooper as first defender.

Be careful of the umbrella defence, Australia will fix the Jaque Fourie to run at, then do a run around. Lambie must not come into the defensive line to quickly it will provide kick space in behind him. SA must watch for the inside ball after the long pass wide. Will SA stick to the umbrella defence which has now been studied for 4 matches or go to drift defence?

They should look at putting a fourth defender looking after Cooper, third defender will look for runners, second defender looking after Genia, and don’t over commit to the ruck, get the fowards into the defensive line quickly. Australia might attack Morne Steyn and then switch towards the forwards with inside ball to the winger.

Australia has a selection dilemma at centre, the will focus on ball retention for long periods to build pressure. There is no doubt they will ask questions on defence. Australia will want to be physical with their forwards, but conditions will be key to their game, they will want an open game and will attempt to put their backs against the springbok forwards. Australia will look at short kick offs away from Fourie du Preez and split SA, they want to isolate Habana. Australia will try to sack every line out and will use Nathan Sharpe to be the only “swimmer” in the maul to sack the drive and will also take lineout supporters out which is actually illegal.


England vs France.
Biggest strength for England is their ability to grind a win even when struggling to get momentum. Their defence is solid, the panel believes Youngs and Flood have better rythm as a combination than Youngs and Wilkinson, and England has been very effective attacking the short side. They are limited but has character and composure.

France will be tougher than has been seen. Their problem is 9 and 10.

New Zealand vs Argentina
New Zealand should be able to deal with the Argentinian scrum, Argentina will use mauling and could get one over NZ, and are expected to play negative rugby wanting to slow the ball down at the breakdown. The New Zealand defence is still seen as their biggest weakness. They are also prone to unforced errors, especially Colin Slade ,which according to Mitchell is not a brave player, he also has critical moments where his skill makes the team suffer and Weepu might be a better bet.

Wales vs Ireland
Both in form sides, well balanced, Ireland strong forwards good backs O’Gara is seen to be the key, he is tactically very good. Ireland also has good pace and skill, and importantly lots of experience. Wales looking well balanced and in form, their fitness and conditioning excellent.


Predictions for the quarter finals

Ireland vs Wales
Joel Stransky Ireland 25 – Wales 16
Heyneke Meyer: Ireland 20 – Wales 15
Allister Coetzee: Wales 21 – Ireland 18
John Mitchell: Ireland 24 – Wales 21
Garth Wright: Wales 17 – Ireland 12.

England vs France
Joel Stransky: England 15 – France 9
Heyneke Meyer: England 24 – France 21
Allister Coetzee: France 21 – England 18
John Mitchell: England 24 – France 21
Garth Wright: England 22 – France 15

South Africa vs Australia
Joel Stransky: South Africa 21 – Australia 18
Heyneke Meyer: South Africa 24 – Australia 18
Allister Coetzee: South Africa – 24 – Australia 21
John Mitchell: South Africa 19 – Australia 17
Garth Wright: South Africa 17 – Australia 10

New Zealand vs Argentina
Joel Stransky: New Zealand 42 – Argentina 12
Heyneke Meyer: New Zealand 28 – Argentina 15
Allister Coetzee: New Zealand 32 – Argentina 12
John Mitchell: New Zealand 52 – Argentina 15
Garth Wright: New Zealand 37 – Argentina 17.

Obviously there was more focus put on the South Africa vs Australia match as it is a South African show, and their predictions may also be seen as a little one eyed.

Pretty much as i see it biltong. The SA picks show loyalty yet respect with the scorelines.
With oz they must score tries to win it.they have no other way of competing. So its a match that will either be one of several tries or not many at all- akin to the wales and samoa matches with SA.
Oz offer much more on attack but have key injuries still.
Too tough to pick this one.

Yes, i don't think it will be a high scroing match, but I think it will be a mistake if australia goes into this thinking we won't score tries.

We have shown some good offloading and attacking skills even against Wales.

Tough tough match to call . If the Boks can hold the Aussies until around the 60thmin mark when the reinforcments get off the bench we might be in with a shout .I'd love to call a springbok win outright but with Steyn out im not so confident at all.

Wonder how the bench will be setup . Does Divvy go for the 4-3 split with Hougaard De jongh and Butch or does Aplon find a way onto the bench (hopefully)

Some great line ups for the next round.

I think the Argies new Zealand will be a great game. Really think they will be trying to prove themselves pre Quad-Nations...!

Yes biltong but SA tries are more by- products of the type of gameplan SA operate with. If they get the right field positioning and apply the right pressure the tries will come.
Oz need neither to score tries. Their collective brilliance and even one missed tackle 50 meters out is usually enough as weve seen many times.
Its just whether they get those opportunities and more importantly take them under the pressures of a knockout.
I have a feeling several tries will be scored. Both sides. But then thats the wishful thinking in me.
Id expect a brisbane type effort from the w's. Boks didnt get oz in that mood and the intensity they had in that match was huge.
But then SA have this tried and true formula. And its currently working for them against non 3N sides.
Its real test is now to beat both with it. A huge ask. As it is for all 3 teams.
Unfortunately without carter we'll be forced into a less structured game as well to share some of the slade pressure.
Man he must be feeling it now.

i agree Taylor , 1 missed tackle on the Aus 5m line can almost guarantee you Beale/Cooper/Digby will bring it back 60 odd metres get tackled,quick recycle and try in the corner .and the Boks are missing a lot of first up tackles but our scramble defence is second to none atm .

Interesting an all Bok panel ,The NH ones are two close to call especially if France turn up.New Zealand should have to much for Argentina.
The crucial match is SA v Australia, The long range artillery is at home,the Boks have great defence plus excellent goal kickers as a squad the best in the RWC.
No one has seen to date how they go with 20 or 30 points deficit,how the Boks go.
The Wallabies injury problems ,have caused trouble they have yet to put an 80 minute performance against strong side in this RWC so far.
IF the Boks have to play Rugby to win can they?get them out of there comfort zone.
Where just keeping the scoreboard ticking won`t be enough then you will see a game.
What may be a problem is how the winner goes in the Semi,because it looks like it will be a bruising affair.
An All Blacks semi? well no Carter,No defence,Slade is a coward,no problem
right?
Talk about the unforgiven,makes mistakes in past matches and the mans on trial again.
I have not yet seen since Eden Park a near full All Blacks side,get there A team on the park then judge them.
Without Dan Carter they will simplyfy there game plan,tighten up there defence ,but most of all get a decent 9 out there.
Cowan is now a total liability,Weepu or Ellis must start the other on the bench.Slade/Crudon start at 10 Nonu /Smith midfield .Get McCaw,Read,Kaino.Whitelock,Thorn.Owen Franks,Mealamu,Woodcock starting together.
Hore ,Williams, Thomson.Ben Franks,SBW,Cruden on the bench and build from there.

It still surprises me alan, you and Taylorman still beleive We can only keep a score board ticking over.

In the last 11 tests played against the wallabies we have socred 27 tries vs their 30.

Both teams in total have socred 269 points.

What is this perception you guys keep on harping on about.

Yes we play direct rugby, but that doesn't mean we don't score tries with running rugby.

Or are you so blinded by your perception of what running rugby should be that the way we do it just doesn't feature as game play?

Was wondering when the stats would pop up BB

i fancy SA for this game, for no other reason than i think they will/should have the upper hand in the set piece, should be a cracker of a game tho!

hi,Biltongbek i thought you knew me better than that,just being a devils advocate.OF course I know you can score tries I take Nothing for granted.
Just getting a little fed up with the NO Carter,No RWC scenario 24 hours after he pulls out.
Most of the media are saying [but not in those words] All Blacks will choke again.
NOW they will be more determined they still have the players it`s just harder now.

SA, the world's most successful underdogs? The ultimate non-rugby playing rugby playing nation? I've been impressed by them for a while now, although I did maybe get a little peeved at some of their more thuggish antics during the Lions tour!

I think that the media likes to write them off because they don't have big headline grabbing players like Dan Carter, or bad boys like Quade Cooper. What they have is this attitude that just gets the job done. It isn't flashy, but it's effective, and contrary to common belief it does involve tries!

I think SA by two full scores next weekend.

Ive been backing Australia to beat South Africa in the quarters since before the cup as I thought that Ireland would beat Australia in the group.

Im sticking with Australia to beat South Africa though obviously in the minority.

Remember that image of Andy Dalton with David Kirk and the cup? I hope that we can recreate that in a few weeks with McCaw and Carter. They are still good enough to do that. Let's concentrate on Argentina and winning, then being unscathed. If Lady Luck is kind to us next week injury wise then it's kitchen sink time. We have the best backrow in the comp. They all need to play 80. Kaino has been awesome this year and we know how good the other two are.

Don't buy the SA don't play running rugby stuff. They can play at a frenzied pace just like NZ and Aussie-just see them at home-but it's just that they don't ad lib as well. That's the only difference-with structure they can mix it with anyone. They're just a little easier to defend against in broken play as opposed to NZ and Aussie.

But SA not having bad boys? Do you know their reputation? No offence Biltong

disneychilly wrote:
But SA not having bad boys? Do you know their reputation? No offence Biltong

I know their reputation, but acts by individuals off the pitch don't seem to make it into the press as much here. Maybe I'm just blissfully ignorant. I don't mind

I thought Cooper's actions were on the pitch though! Payback is a b1tch-was hoping that NZ would have the chance to exact it here, SA could well do it for us though.

Personally from a very biased and self interested position, I'm hoping South Africa beat Australia, and obviously the NZ beat Argentina.

I don't think NZ will deal with Australia without Carter and Ozzies returning from injury. South Africa must cut off their head while they are on their knees. And do us both a favour.

NZ and SA have a contrasting style, that I believe gives NZ a better opportunity of reaching the final than we would have against Australia, who can break a game open in a twinkle, and shut it down again just as effectively. NZ's defence is suspect, having conceded so many tries, and I think we will cope with South Africa's direct and aerial assault more easily than Australia's creativity and counter-attacking strength.

On the other side of the draw. What can you say? Would be nice for France to pull one out and knock over the Poms so we can accuse them of choking for four years, but in all likelihood we all secretly know that France have been defined by their success over NZ for over a decade and now we've burst their bubble, they've lost all composure.

this aus team never does it against england.- That is one team that i cannot see beating us, so i am suprised you are scared of them in honesty. If aus did get thorugh and turn you over- id say england have an actuall chance of winning the thing., and the chances of a NH win would bevery high

there is something to be said for styles and rugby i suppose.

like the 'choke' comment- was that specifically for me lol, england - france are very similar in terms of quality., they just have no form, form is tempoary, class is perminant

mystiroakey wrote:this aus team never does it against england.- That is one team that i cannot see beating us, so i am suprised you are scared of them in honesty.

AUS v ENG head to head.

Played 40
ENG Won 16
AUS Won 23
Draw 1

Form since last world cup Australia, Australia, Australia, England, England.

Make no mistake the Ockers are a different bunch to the team England saw off home and away. The scrum has made massive improvement and the back line is devastating.

what happened v ireland then???

Australia were missing various key figures to injury and illness. Did you not watch the game? Which is my point. If they're not knocked out now when we've got the chance, they could be very tricky to deal with given another week to rally.

Ioane is their busiest player by far on attack, missing. Moore, corner stone of the Aussie front row was out. Pocock, one of the best fetchers in the game was out. Who else did I miss?

Just got back from Wellington where I saw the AB's v Canada game and have to say that Slade had a very good game (and yes it was only Canada) given some of the service he got. He had one charge down (Carter is averaging almost one a game this year as well) and otherwise his distribution and kicking from hand was excellent, and in fact far better than Weepu when he came on whose passing and kicking was dreadful and aimless. As for his goal kicking, the wind in the fist half was swirling something crazy and was far harder to kick into than kicking with it in the 2nd half, which is why Weepu looked better.

I think Slade will do the job comfortably against Argentina, which will leave a pretty nice matchup with SA or Aus in the semi. My thoughts on the winner of that game are as follows:

1. Aus can win if they get anywhere near parity with SA up front - they did it against SA in SA and against the AB's this year (for one half) so no reason why they can't this weekend.

2. SA have to tighten up their defence. They might scramble well on their line but sooner or later a better attacking team than what they've faced so far (e.g. Aus or the AB's) are going to carve them to pieces - remember that the AB's were very unlucky not to have scored 3 or 4 tries in the first 15 mins against SA in SA and the reason they didn't score was in minor part due to the SA scrambling defence but more to do with a completely new backline that hadn't played together and so some poor options were taken in the finishing - this won't happen again from either the AB's or SA.

3. SA have to get their loosies working - in my view they have been average this RWC and bested at times and if they make it the semi the NZ loose trio will take them apart. Kaino is in awesome form.

4. Weather - if the weather is rubbish in Auckland (which is looking likely - rain forecast) then SA have an advantage as historically the Aussies don't do too well in those conditions.

To me the key to the SA v Aus QF are points 1 and 2 above - too tight to call it as far as I'm concerned. Just hope they knock the stuffing out of each other and that it goes to extra time

Otagolad wrote:Just got back from Wellington where I saw the AB's v Canada game and have to say that Slade had a very good game (and yes it was only Canada) given some of the service he got. He had one charge down (Carter is averaging almost one a game this year as well) and otherwise his distribution and kicking from hand was excellent, and in fact far better than Weepu when he came on whose passing and kicking was dreadful and aimless. As for his goal kicking, the wind in the fist half was swirling something crazy and was far harder to kick into than kicking with it in the 2nd half, which is why Weepu looked better.

I think Slade will do the job comfortably against Argentina, which will leave a pretty nice matchup with SA or Aus in the semi. My thoughts on the winner of that game are as follows:

1. Aus can win if they get anywhere near parity with SA up front - they did it against SA in SA and against the AB's this year (for one half) so no reason why they can't this weekend.

2. SA have to tighten up their defence. They might scramble well on their line but sooner or later a better attacking team than what they've faced so far (e.g. Aus or the AB's) are going to carve them to pieces - remember that the AB's were very unlucky not to have scored 3 or 4 tries in the first 15 mins against SA in SA and the reason they didn't score was in minor part due to the SA scrambling defence but more to do with a completely new backline that hadn't played together and so some poor options were taken in the finishing - this won't happen again from either the AB's or SA.

3. SA have to get their loosies working - in my view they have been average this RWC and bested at times and if they make it the semi the NZ loose trio will take them apart. Kaino is in awesome form.

4. Weather - if the weather is rubbish in Auckland (which is looking likely - rain forecast) then SA have an advantage as historically the Aussies don't do too well in those conditions.

To me the key to the SA v Aus QF are points 1 and 2 above - too tight to call it as far as I'm concerned. Just hope they knock the stuffing out of each other and that it goes to extra time

SA loosies havent been working?? Brussow has been sublime ,Schalla has been excatly that Schalla of 2004 standard. The only one not pulling his weight is spies . As for the aussies ,they didnt excatly shine last time they played the Boks and imo the only reason they walked away with a win was because it was most Boks first game for 8 weeks and match fitness was severely lacking . Even then they werent carved up by the aussie backline as you suggested.

The Boks back row is a good one Spies is a supreb athlete,but not I think a number 8.Surprised Alberts isn`t playing there,both Burger and Broussow are good.
The Samoan match was bad,too many cheap shots by BOTH sides,Broussow and Williams should both have seen Yellow for the incident.
Physical does`nt = Dirty,Samoa/SA was dirty[both sides]surprised Owens
did`nt bin a couple in the first half.
Tonga/France was physical but Not dirty apart from a dangerous tackle on both sides.was surprisingly clean.
The quarter final is too close to call,injuries causing problems for both sides.
ALL the SH sides know what to expect,from each other so to close to call.
If the All Blacks make it too the Semi`s I think they would prefer Australia.
There slightly looser defence,and weaker goalkicking would be a closer match.
Without Dan Carter the 9/10 channel needs defending.More Dagg if he starts is a crack Goal kicker let him take the kicks.
One other factor Eden Park,is an easier venue for kickers,All Blacks QF,SF,Final [if they get there] would help Slade.
Crudon if they can get him up to speed has a good all round game too.
But no matter who is at 10,if the 9 is serving up the rubbish cowan was delivering yesterday NO CHANCE.

Good comments people and Biltong you're right about the tries thing. I think its just that SA tries seem to come under the radar compared to the Oz and (some) NZ ones.

Going by the comments above this match is going to be a cracker.

This time there's nowhere to hide, no building for this or that, no playing this or that card. Its all on the table, nothing left in the drawer.

It's for that reason I think Oz will win this. They'll chance their arm more and have the potential to rip this. That combined with the slightly dodgy SA defence across the field. And I'd still prefer a team who's first goal is to score tries rather than as something thats done 'once all the blocks are in place' so to speak.

Don't get me wrong. This is the sort of thing that can and has many times backfired in world cups, NZ, Oz and France usually being the victims of trying too much.

Thats why I'd like to see a team playing open rugby get there and think Oz have the team to do that this time. I also agree with TGG- I'd prefer to meet the Boks- because of the Oz potential to unleash some terrific damage- but thats something else- can't have it both ways.

Bulls,

The only real tests that SA have had were Samoa and Wales - against Wales the SA loosies were made to look ordinary and Brussow was almost non-existent (he got to lots of breakdowns but was consistently blown away by the Welsh forwards). Against Samoa they were OK, but it is only Samoa.

In regards to defence, nearly every team you have played this year have exposed your defence, its just that the SA goal line defence has been excellent since the first stringers returned from injury - as I said, I believe the AB's will carve them up if SA make it that far (still 50/50 for me).

Frankly I think that people are reading far too much into SA's wins and giving them too much credit. SA to me have lacked imagination and barely ground out wins - sure, sure we've heard a million times that RWC's are won by teams who can grind out wins, however as soon as SA come up against teams that match them up front (e.g. Wales) they have little to nothing else to offer as far as I'm concerned. The AB's on the other hand can match it up front and also take teams apart out wide. I think the loss of Carter will actually make this team even tougher to beat, will galvanise them and focus them like nothing else could've.

Maybe I'm being far too optimistic, and sure I'd have preferred DC to still be there, however I genuinely believe the AB's are head and shoulders above the other teams and that the draw still favours them nicely. It will make for excellent viewing in the next few weeks.

Otagolad the only problem I have is Argentina,they are tough up front.
Happy to absorb pressure and take points as they come The All Blacks have a lot of niggling injuries in the squad.
It`s no longer a case of I have a sore foot,but maybe able to play no more smoke and mirrors.
Get the guys out there to do the business,I don`t care if its by one point and 10 penalties to 9.
The All Blacks need a solid ground out win,no injuries,try nothing flash ,but do enough to win.
THE SEMI will be the final for 2 SH sides,the winner faces an NH side then take it from there.

emack,

I agree that the best 15 must now play, however the ground out win is only going to occur when teams actually provide us with a test - France did for a while and I'm not sure from what I've seen of Argentina that they will either as I do not think they are as strong up front as people are saying and their backs go laterally and not straight so not much of a worry there.

The AB's tight five and loosies are the match of anyone else going and have pushed everyone else's scrums around so not too worried in that area of the game.

I agree that Cowan is not passing well and is putting his receivers under pressure, however being at all four AB's games I can tell you that the touchies are not policing the offside line well and hence we are having opposition players in our backline waiting for the ball - the AB's realised this against Canada yesterday and starting taking it up around the fringes more to suck the opposition in and Kaino was immense in that area.

At the end of the day we can only play what is in-front on us and so far its been pretty good and with Aus and SA smashing themselves and us having a tough, but I think relatively easy, hit up against Argentina I think that places us in a pretty good place for the semi.

emack2 wrote:Otagolad the only problem I have is Argentina,they are tough up front.
Happy to absorb pressure and take points as they come The All Blacks have a lot of niggling injuries in the squad.
It`s no longer a case of I have a sore foot,but maybe able to play no more smoke and mirrors.
Get the guys out there to do the business,I don`t care if its by one point and 10 penalties to 9.
The All Blacks need a solid ground out win,no injuries,try nothing flash ,but do enough to win.
THE SEMI will be the final for 2 SH sides,the winner faces an NH side then take it from there.

What do you mean

THE SEMI will be the final for 2SH sides, the winner faces a NH side then take it from there

?

Please elaborate

Gatts wrote:

What do you mean

THE SEMI will be the final for 2SH sides, the winner faces a NH side then take it from there

?

Please elaborate

I think what he means is whoever wins that semi will win the final. I think that's largely true though I have my doubts about Oz beating both SA and NZ (assuming they beat Argie) with their lack of real backup and then getting up and beating the NH side. They'd have to suffer no injuries as well as have the luxury to play subs late in both matches. Not sure both teams will allow that.

If SA beat Oz then I think the winner of the semi will win the final. SA coming through those two matches will be virtually unstoppable and NZ don't often lose to NH sides other than France, though I don't think France will get there. I think it will be England though I think both Wales and Ireland would deserve it more given the rugby they are playing.

"I think it will be England though I think both Wales and Ireland would deserve it more given the rugby they are playing."

i think we can safely say that whoever gets there deserves it more. Its patronizing to wales and ireland to suggest otherwise,its not factual either looking at the rankings, its not fair on england and to say this before games have been played make the whole thing speculative.

Hi otagolad. I see you have taken some time out to so the world cup thing. Last time i caught your posts you were sipping wine over the atlantic on your way here.

Your comments above are similar to my thoughts but in the cases of NZ and SA youre much more convinced about both.

With NZ I also believe we have the best team for the title but for past results and other bits and pieces i stop short of stating that confidence.

Same with SA. I agree they do look bereft of ideas and rely on an age old gameplan but they do have some very good players individually and are defending their title.

The world cup knockouts as we know are a different beast and whether we admit or not NZ teams have for a reason as yet not clearly understood managed to find ways of underperforming in key matches.

The home advantage at eden park is the biggest factor in our favour but you sure have a confidence not many kiwis would admit as easily.

"we admit or not NZ teams have for a reason as yet not clearly understood managed to find ways of underperforming in key matches."

its called choking- basically mental pressure gets to much and you do stupid things. It happens alot of the time to percieved favourites. Why is that so hard to understand?

Frans Steyn is a massive loss... he is probably the ace card in the bok back division... but die bokke must move on and adapt.

Lambie is an satisfactory replacement and has other qualities Steyn does not possess such as better game management.

Other than the choice of Steenkamp or Beast, its quite clear what side PDV will choose, can't see PDV being anything bar consistent.. Smit, Spies, Du Preez, JDV, Habana & Lambie will all start.

Aus with Moore & Pocock back will be much improved in the forwards. Personally I think without Bismaarck & Alberts starting Aus may be able to compete upfront & may just shade the encounter until then.

When PDV chooses to bring on his replacements will be key.... if SA are down at halftime does he bring off his captain to send on Bismaarck? Leadership & calm heads are so important when over-turning a deficit in a very short period of time.

It will be very tight but I have Aus shading it, just.

Yeah im the same. More so as the pocock ioane genia beale cooper joc outfit are all back.
I dont think oz have lost many matches with that 6 on the field. If any.
All gamewinners in their own right but collectively the best show in rugby by a mile.

mystiroakey wrote:"we admit or not NZ teams have for a reason as yet not clearly understood managed to find ways of underperforming in key matches."

its called choking- basically mental pressure gets to much and you do stupid things. It happens alot of the time to percieved favourites. Why is that so hard to understand?

Thanks for confirming my point mysti.
Cant really see how thinking england will get there ahead of ireland and wales is patronising.
My point is that while it appears ireland and wales are playing better rugby and at this point probably deserve a final spot more, England will more likely get there as theyve done it before.
The last world cup at this point they were playing much worse and still got there.
Its also an opinion.

how do you deserve something you dont get?- what are you trying to say?

now you are devaluing englands final place in 2007 as well. what are you saying that they didnt deserve that!

is it just england you have a problem with?

i suppose its typical of a kiwi to turn a world cup into an x factor style show- lets just award points based on what we think is the better team.

If you are the best or better team- you have to proove it by winning!

Look pal - who ever out of the NH teams gets to the final . I will be the first to congratulate. that team is the only team that deserves any credit. Its patronizing to suggest otherwise. NH has a good standard of rugby, and i feel the way things are going could be taken over the top rankings soon- The 6N's is getting more and more compoetitive and that is not due to france and england droppoing standard its the others getting better. Wales and Ireland are big boys, The teams dont want false praise

Three potentially very competetive QFs and then the ABs agaisnt a powerful but somewhat limited Argentina...

As an England fan, I think we must start as quite strong favourites over France - OK, we've hardly been in scintillating form in attack against the better sides in our group, but one try conceded in 4 matches shows that our defence is going well. Armitage out and Cueto in probably even strengthens that aspect of the game. France are France, and so might suddenly produce unbeatable rugby, but haven't shown any signs yet this tournament, and have not had a great record against England in recent years. I think England will win by quite a comfortable margin in the end, with the French giving up after about 60 minutes.

Now as a neutral:
ABs will be too strong and powerful for Argentina, and will win by at least 20 points, even in the absence of Dan Carter.

SA v Aus - Could be a very close game, but my feeling in that South Africa's power and defensive solidity will be sufficient to edge it. Probably 7-10 point margin.

Wales v Ireland - Again, one to look forward to as a neutral, as Wales seem to have lucked into a good starting lineup (Priestland at 10 wouldn't have happened without the absences in the warm up matches) and are showing signs of good form, while Ireland have one of the best packs remaining in the tournament and showed good execution and a clinical attitude in seeing off the potential banana skin of Italy. Being English, I'd prefer us to play Wales in the SF (because our recent record against Ireland is so woeful), but don't see it happening - Ireland to win by about 10 points.

Well mysti we might be talking at odds.
At this point we are all guessing. Im assuming thats allowed in your world.
At this point some teams, based on the way they played during their pool matches probably deserve a final spot more than others.
In my opinion wales and ireland look more deserving of a final spot than say england, whos rugby hasnt looked as good as the other two.
Also in my opinion i think england will instead make the final as theyve shown more fortitude than the others in the past.
Don't understand how this is false praise or typical. Nor am i undervaluing englands final position. In fact im using to illustrate the fact that pool results performance, other than qualifying, often has no reflection on the finals teams.
So if you want to be all sensitive about the state of nh rugby thats fine.
Which, by the way, still looks the same to me.
Whats changed?
Theres been one win over a sh side. That happens every AIs. Theres also been a win by a pacific island team over a nh side and that is also the norm.
How has it improved from say, 4 years ago?

mystiroakey wrote:i suppose its typical of a kiwi to turn a world cup into an x factor style show- lets just award points based on what we think is the better team.

How is it typical of a Kiwi to turn a world cup into an X factor show?

I really have no idea what you're talking about there.

If anything, I'd say the NH media are more responsible for this kind of thing. Which seemed to start when they fawned all over Jonah Lomu. Then fawned all over Wilkinson. They tend to pick their poster boys for the world cup. This time around it seems to be Sonny Bill Williams who the commentators can't help but mention repeatedly. I think the southern hemipshere coverage tends to be less hysterical on the whole. Both in punditry and in-game commentary. The English commentators always seem to think they have to turn the game commentary into a kind of shakespearean masterpiece of poetic majesty.

As far as "awarding points on what we think is the better team" again I'm not sure that's a Kiwi trait. These shores are full of a prolifery of pundits who like to mark up sticky labels with team names on them. I personally loved Lynagh and Dayglo's prediction of the rest of the tournament over the weekend. Where they stood in front of the finals board and escalated England and Australia to the final on the basis of the most 1 dimensional analysis I've ever seen.

Second most likely scenario for me GG after a nz eng final.
If oz beat SA- as they have last 5 from 6- and remain uninjured they could very well beat us.

A lot of permutations seem possible. It's a good thing for the tournament IMO.

I was more their rationale that I questioned.

ML was clearly aware he was on a show being watched by a majority of English fans, and was slightly scared LD would hit him if he didn't keep picking England on the basis that "they made the final last time".

Whilst LD seemed to think he needed to reciprocate by advancing Australia at every opportunity since ML went first.

A little love-in at the board, with predictable results.

I was very surprised when Lynagh put England through to the final. So, I think, was Dallaglio - and most English viewers. But then we've seen others from the SH upon these boards and elsewhere saying the same thing.

Much to my relief. I have great respect for Lynagh and hated the idea he'd sold out.

My guess is that Ireland's experience will just see them past Wales' exciting young guns; that both Wales and Ireland would beat England on current form and Ireland will make the final against probably NZ, but I've got a sneaky feeling SA might have something to say about that. Australia feel like the France of the South at the moment. I have no idea what they will do next.

Gatts,in my last statement this is what I mean`t the SH semi will be THE final for ONE of the SH sides.
Because due to Ireland beating Australia ,a SH FINAL is impossible now.
The 3Ns and 6Ns sides both know each others games backwards.
Before the RWC started I thought a Boks v Wallabies final was likely [purely on historical grounds]
I HOPED the All Blacks would win it,with a fully fit Carter and McCaw it seemed a very real one.
IF McCaw stays fit enough,I still think they have a better chance than
any of the other teams JUST.
Without him it would still be possible,but no better than an evens bet.
Whoever reachs the Final will have got there on merit,I am to old and wise
to say.It`s in the bag for any of the sides.
The last thing I want to see is a team shorn of it`s stars limping into the final and capitulating.
That is ANY team,I am not stupid enough to say if SH side X reachs the Final
NH side Y has know hope.
THE Aus v Boks match is the key one,either side can win but its a fair bet
injuries will occur.
Aussie injuries are coming good ,but they have lost Palu and Drew Mitchell.The Boks losing Franny Steyn is a big blow,the way the RWC has been reffed so far.
The sides who convert there chances by kicking goals,then have the cushion to go wide.
It is not the Boks natural instinct to go flat out for tries,with 3 great goal kicking options on the park they seldom need to.
That is not saying they can`t score try`s but they often score early and rely on defence to close out the game.
Overnight Wilkinson out injured,Armitage banned who knows what France
side will turn up.If Phillipe Sant Andre is in the camp maybe the Players will perform for him.
Sad to here another Irish player has gone home with a broken collar bone.
ALL the QFs have to be won,none is a gimme best of luck to all concerned
the RWC starts here!!!

second most likely scenario after a nz eng final would be a nz v france final, then a nz v ireland final, then an eng v sa final.

I think NZ are gonna really show there worth, and i really cannot see how there team is so realiant on carter. Its like a spain without a xavi, not a portugal without ronaldo or england without a rooney.

I give you kiwi fans stick because you seem like a bunch of whingers, but your team is surely to good. Your ranking is so high, your wins against minnows are allways so good. You also destroyed france- many people say it was france that imploded- from my point of view there was nothing they could do, and against tonga they only did what was neccesary, they still got through. France still have a chnage at getting to the final. and we then basically will have a repeat of last years wc- with france and nz over eng and sa(sa pumled england in the groups) which is why many dont understand how we got to the final

Cowshot, Sa is being doubted based on a few things.

Defence - during our last two Tri Nation tests when our first choice players came back from rustenburg NZ and Australia ran at us with venom and speed, even though we did miss many tackles our scramble defence saved us by only letting in 1 try per test. It seems our defensive record of only allowing 1 try each to wales and samoa is also seen as being down to our scramble defence.

So it seems some people think our defence is supect and will be exploited by Astralia's talented backs. Which in the end you would have to say is most definitely a point of debate.

Attack - We are seen to be predictable in attack and haven't shown anything different during the pool rounds. Well I have to strongly disagree with that because we have shown against both Samoa and wales that when it is needed we can up the intensity and socre from few opportunities. The other factor nobody has yet recognised is that we have made more offloads and linebreaks during this RWC than before and I am ignoring the Namibia and Fiji tests in this.

Breakdowns - We are seen not able to compete at the breakdowns becuase both Wales and samoa have "dominated" the ruck areas. what nobody has yet recognised in this instance is that when teams were dominating these breakdowns were when we chose not to compete at these breakdowns and rather set our defensive lines.

The ultimate proof of this is the fact that of the 33 penalties we conceded most of them were in fact not on defence at the breakdowns and especially not in our red zone. They were mostly for holding on in attack and going to ground on attack, and in that it tells me that the directive given by the IRB was either totally misunderstood by our coaches or alternatively blown incorrectly.

There is always a difference between perception and tactics. the perception is we were dominated at the breakdown where as the reality was we chose not to compete at the breakdowns in our area unless certain favourable conditions were in place, thus the few penalties.

We can and did attack direct, in channel one and outside, our forwards have made many offloads and a guy like Schalk Burger has shwon his willingness to offload in the tackle.

So at the end of the day it is how we choose to see things, many choose to see SA cannot attack apart from being direct, many choose to think we have to rely on scramble defence and many beleive we cannot compete at the breakdowns.

all of these aspects of our gameplan depends on the opponent and the tactics the coaches decide to employ against that opponent.

We ultimately have only one goal and that is to win, some teams want to look good while winning and other teams have no choice to play an open 7's type game because they don't have the forwards to dominate.

SA and Oz will be a very tough match, who is going to win I honestly do not know, but the fact is as much as we have weaknesses australia in my view has more.

they rely on a handful of players to break the game open and they rely on those players to perform, if you shut down those players they can become clueless as they did against Ireland. They do not have a pack that can dominate for 80 minutes even if they try. They are very reliant on an open game, and if they don't get that they are in trouble. then there is the matter of a consistent goal kicker, which on and off has been a big issue for them. Lastly when comparing the discipline of the two teams, SA gets another tick under the belt.

The weather forecast will be vital for Australia.

Saturday and Sunday are forecast to be contrasting days. Saturday looking dry and calm, and Sunday windy and very wet.

Good news for South Africa and Argentina in my books.