HC Quarter Finals

So many permutations but I have been through the fixtures for round 6 and this is what I came up with.

I think out of the current high scorers (quins, clermont and toulon) clermont will be the only side to win, despite the fact they are all away from home clermont face a scarlets side with nothing much to play for and the other 2 face stronger opposition still in with a chance of qualification.

1. Clermont
2. Quins
3. Toulon

The shoot out for the last home quarter is between Sarries, Toulouse and Ulster. Sarries are the only side playing at home and they play an edinburgh side that has been poor this year, toulouse have a tough trip to welford road and uslter have to go to france but their destiny is in their own hands being 1 point ahead of the other 2.

4. Saracens

I think leicester will beat toulouse and uslter narrowly lose in castres, this will leave these two as the final group toppers.

5. Ulster
6. Leicester

As I said above I think montpellier have shown they are capable and will beat toulon at home making them unassailable as the best runners up.

7. Montpellier

Munster and Leinster are best placed for the final spot but there are plenty of contenders if these two fail to get a try bonus. I fancy leinster to get that try bonus and i dont think munster have it in them.

8. Leinster


SO:

Clermont Vs Leinster (ha ha, Again)
Quins Vs Montpellier
Toulon Vs Leicester
Saracens Vs Ulster

Obviously if quins beat biarittz tonight the whole thing is off but this is my best guess.

mostly agree by cant see Ulster losing in Castres and reckon Toulon will get 4 points in Montpellier (this is probably the most difficult game to predict of this weekend and could even end with TBP for both sides)
so could get with something like that:
Toulon 27 (more tries)
ASM 27
Harlequins 25
Ulster 23 (currently 2 more tries than saracnes but it can change)
Saracens 23 (playing Embra at home so could go up)
Leicester 20
Leinster 20
Montpelier 19 (more tries than munster or toulouse)

and for the QFs...
Toulon vs Montpelier
ASM vs Leinster
Quins vs Leicester
Ulster vs Saracens

not very exciting fixtures whith too many local derbies for my liking. hope it ends up differently.

whocares,

Have you seen any news on what sort of team Castres will field?

I don't know their squad anywhere near well enough to tell how they are approaching this game. Any insight from nearer the scene?

Folks, sadly Leinster will be stuck on 15pts

As per my prediction on this weeks podcast....

http://v2journal.com/rugby-articles.html

ASM Clermont Auvergne vs. Munster
Harlequins vs. Montpllier
Toulon vs. Ulster
Saracens vs. Leicester Tigers

This is not so much a prediction as a hope.

To get 3 Irish provinces in.

Leinster in much better form but Munster have by far the easier task. So I can see Leinster not making it if Montpelier win especially.

Leicester don't quite have the quality to put away a firing Toulouse, then again they may not be firing.

I think/hope we will win in Exeter, but I'm not sure about the 4 tries. Big carrot for Exe to put the champs out.

Quins .........28
ASM Clermont .........27
Toulon.........27
Ulster .........24
Toulouse .........22
Saracens .........22
Munster .........20
Leinster 20

Why predict, theys so much that can happen, tries scored even comes into it, each team wil do out to try and win their games as best they can.

However I don't think Scarlets, Chiefs Edinburgh, Glasgow and a few others have nothing to play for, they are wanting to make an impact in the comp next year, and instead of putting out a weaked team to contentrate on the League, (which some French teams may do). They will look at it as a learning experience for next year, play their best players to get them used to this level of rugby, so they are better prepared for next year, putting out a weaker team and you will not learn as much, and the players will have less experience of the big games.

Altough I expect most will be beaten, they won't make it easy and a surprise result could be thrown up.

Kingshu wrote:Why predict, theys so much that can happen,

For the crack of course.

Why does anyone bother posting 95% of what's on this forum when it's wrong?

Kingshu wrote:Why predict, theys so much that can happen, tries scored even comes into it, each team wil do out to try and win their games as best they can.

However I don't think Scarlets, Chiefs Edinburgh, Glasgow and a few others have nothing to play for, they are wanting to make an impact in the comp next year, and instead of putting out a weaked team to contentrate on the League, (which some French teams may do). They will look at it as a learning experience for next year, play their best players to get them used to this level of rugby, so they are better prepared for next year, putting out a weaker team and you will not learn as much, and the players will have less experience of the big games.

Altough I expect most will be beaten, they won't make it easy and a surprise result could be thrown up.

kingshu, the Exe view is simply that the more wins we get this year, the better seeding we will get next year (providing we qualify), the easier pool we will have next year - so expect no holds barred effort from the Chiefs

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

Kingshu wrote:Why predict, theys so much that can happen, tries scored even comes into it, each team wil do out to try and win their games as best they can.

However I don't think Scarlets, Chiefs Edinburgh, Glasgow and a few others have nothing to play for, they are wanting to make an impact in the comp next year, and instead of putting out a weaked team to contentrate on the League, (which some French teams may do). They will look at it as a learning experience for next year, play their best players to get them used to this level of rugby, so they are better prepared for next year, putting out a weaker team and you will not learn as much, and the players will have less experience of the big games.

Altough I expect most will be beaten, they won't make it easy and a surprise result could be thrown up.

kingshu, the Exe view is simply that the more wins we get this year, the better seeding we will get next year (providing we qualify), the easier pool we will have next year - so expect no holds barred effort from the Chiefs

Not sure that’s true though As, AFAIK the seeding points are based on where you finish in your pool? Since the chiefs are going to finish 3rd regardless there is nothing to be gained from a win, except pride blah blah etc.

Just about to post what Bikkies said.

Win, lose or draw you will take 2 points into the ranking system next year.

I thought you got points for wins?

Fraid not buddy.

4th in your group = 1
3rd in your group = 2

http://origin.ercrugby.com/eng/ranking.php

Scroll down.

MrsP wrote:whocares,

Have you seen any news on what sort of team Castres will field?

I don't know their squad anywhere near well enough to tell how they are approaching this game. Any insight from nearer the scene?

hi Mrs P

Castres 23 (sorry to hijack this thread) :
Forestier, Taumoepeau, Lazar, Peikrishvili, Marmoiton, Mach, Rallier, Tekori, Samson, Rolland, Bornman, Wannenburg, Faasalele, Babillot, Claassen, Lacrampe, Kockott, Tales, Bernard, Bai, Lamerat, Bonnefond, Cabannes, Sanchou, Andreu, Garvey, Evans .

everybody is there except the injured: Whihongi (their best prop), Kirkpatrick, Teulet, Martial and Dulin (probably their best player) - and also Diarra (suspended).

So yes they could field a good team but again not enough for Ulster. Am not too sure how they are approaching this game and what will be their motivation...

If Exeter win 4000 nil they will still be in the 4th tier next year.

With exactly 4 ranking points

If Exeter lose 4000 nil they will still be in the 4th tier next year.

With exactly 4 ranking points

Should they qualify (Which I hope they do because they are one of my favourite English teams)

MrsP wrote:Fraid not buddy.

4th in your group = 1
3rd in your group = 2

http://origin.ercrugby.com/eng/ranking.php

Scroll down.

My bad, bummer, there goes that theory!

The current ERC rankings system should be put in the skip along with the rest of the HEC/Amlin format when the Leagues reconvene in March.

[ed] incidentally, the Irish will need to gain more than singular representation in the HEC or the bargainining power of the Rabo to resist the Franglos will be undermined even further:

At the moment in the HEC, the Leagues stand thus (Average Pool points, Average Pool position)
T14 (13.5, 2)
Jeff (17.29, 1.86)
Rabo (6.82, 3.18)

Grey Tiger, another way of doing it would be to wait to end of season and add up the ERC points of every team in each league.

But I agree the ranking system is poor, it doesn't reflect recent form enough, placeing to much on form 3/4 years ago, and doesn't give enough point to Almin teams.

Cardiff Blues still being a tier one team this season shows theres an issue, an once team is up there its very difficult for it to fall down.

Something based on the league position from the year before, coupled with European form would be fine by me, (it would also give the Rabo posions more to play for as English and French request)

Using a system like euro table, at the start of the season would be fine with me
http://www.eurorugby.com/index.php

uses Account is taken of the differences in playing standards of the various domestic leagues by applying coefficients for each country. (would like to know what these are for each league, to see which is ranked top?

it uses the last 30 games, think should extend to last 60 games, which should then give credit for the season before last.

I've always believed the eurorugby tabe is far more representative than the ERC ones K'hu.

Might be better if spread over two years possibly, but four years like ERC rankings is ludicrous.

But certainly can't fault the current Eurorugby list.

I don't see Toulon losing to Montpellier. I think they've got them beat pretty much everywhere on the field, and the bench just ridiculously underscores that. They've played twice this season, Toulon winning both times, 37-16 at home in the HC and 25-32 away in the Top 14. I do think Montpellier could get the LBP though.

I'd also be pretty surprised if Harlequins don't beat Biarritz. Biarritz could in theory still qualify, but their chances are beyond slim to my mind. They might be vying for a spot in the Amlin, but that doesn't historically particularly interest French sides and I suspect they might be concentrating more on the Top 14 now, especially given some of their recent scraped home results against bottom sides there and their midtable position.

Castres will lose to Ulster, who I don't think will get the BP but still claim a home quarter. Neither Munster or Leinster to get the BP either, I think Toulouse & Montpellier will take the runner-up spots due to tries scored.

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:
Quins .........28
ASM Clermont .........27
Toulon.........27
Ulster .........24
Toulouse .........22
Saracens .........22
Munster .........20
Leinster 20

I'm right so far anyway.

I'm so nervous. If we can just pull this out of the bag and sneak through I'd still fancy us to beat anybody in an away quarter final, now that we have all our best players back from injurt

It'd probably be us, Rogue.

That would be guaranteed entertainment Chequered. Two teams who play a great brand of rugby.

However I still think it's more likely Leinster will be dropping to the Amlin. Exeter are too good and there are to many permutations for me to be thinking about a quarter final really.

Shame, much as I like Exeter, it'll feel odd to not have Leinster in the HEC knockouts and the rematch of "Bloodgate" at the Stoop would be both a great rugby occasion, a test of Quins ability at the level that really counts and a shot at redemption

I think they've washed out the stain of bloodgate remarkably quickly. When I think of Quins, I don't think "bloodgate", I think "attacking rugby" and "won in Thomond". I don't think they need to play Leinster again to redeem themselves, because they're already redeemed by O'Shea and the current squad of players.

But coming around in a full circle would help. I don't think we need redemption either but some morons still bring up Bloodgate and I think the players would relish the chance to go up against Leinster fair and square

And it would help Sky hype it up to the max.

Its looking at the moment as if its Montpellier for one runner up spot and the other between Munster Leinste and Toulose all on 19 points