South Africa, have the pundits missed a trick?

I have been pondering the possibility of the Springboks being able to win this world cup, and after having seen the amount of criticism they have received (which is par for the course) I started to falter in my belief.

I prefer to read opinions on my team from sources outside of South Africa simply because your own press tends to be biased and do not provide an objective view on sports. So stuff.co.nz, the New Zealand Herald and The Australian are my preferred reading material.

It does take a lot of guts to listen to some of the overly biased pundits on these websites because as our pundits are biased towards us, these guys are even worse. There is little diplomacy or tact in the way they can criticise another team and they manage to rile their supporters into quite a frenzy at times.

This was clearly evident after the Samoa test where many comments were rather nasty towards South Africa.

Anyway through all this electronic information, every now and again you read something that makes you think.

I got a totally different perspective from reading this comment on the New Zealand herald.

Ybgur Noinu (Dunedin)
03:48 PM Tuesday, 4 Oct 2011
As Peter de Villiers explained, the Springboks were aware of the over robust play of the Samoans and decided to kick possession back at the Samoans after half time, so that the Springboks were no longer targets of the head high tackles. It was a ploy to keep the injury rate down.

Any one with brains can see that this is exactly what the Springboks did. They were in no danger of losing the match because if they wished they could have gone back into the tight mauls, kept possesion, forced penalties and scrums got the three pointers if their lead were threatened. They did just enough to win - in fact they did not even need to win anyway.

The Samoans played like desperados and were given possession purposely by the Boks, but could only score one try - off a knock-on. An actual try by the Boks was not given because of lack of evidence. Stop knocking the Springboks - their discipline had been good so far and they have played some real power rugby, which they can turn on in an instance. No one wants to admit it, but they are actually the team to beat.

This started to make me think that perhaps there are quite a number of pundits and posters alike that have missed a trick from the south Africans

What if:
Pieter de Villiers and his cohorts have used the pool matches as their preparation for the knock out rounds. As we all know the controversial Rustenburg saga ahs precluded the first choice players from playing some of the away matches of the Tri Nations.

What are the most important factors form a springbok point of view for retaining their trophy?

Defence:
Well they have been severely tested by Samoa and Wales in that department having made in excess of 300 tackles in those two matches.

Attack:
With both Wales and Samoa having very well organised defensive systems and being rather strong in the physical stakes, they had to execute well on attack to win these two matches, making 3 clean breaks, 12 defenders beaten and 15 offloads with the little possession they had. In my opinion it shows how clinical they were in finishing off the few opportunities they had.

In contrast to Wales and Samoa it seems they used the two test matches against Fiji and Namibia to hone their attacking skills making 11 clean breaks, 55 defenders beaten and 35 offloads. Granted neither Fiji or Namibia was really up to the task, but it could still be seen as a full contact practice run at worst.

Discipline:
They have shown to be the most disciplined team in the pool rounds of all the top teams and strangely were more penalised in attack than in defence, which tells me they handled the pressure in a very disciplined manner.

Goal kicking:
Morne Steyn has thus far been one of the stand out kickers during the tournament.

Matchday 22:
I think it is pretty clear who are the best 22 in the springboks squad, but for a few selection issues with John Smit and Bismarck du Plessis, Danie Rossouw and Bakkies Botha, and perhaps Francois hougaard and Fourie du Preez.

Impact subs:
South Africa have been able to test their bench during this time and I would be quite confident to say that in Bismarck du Plessis, Francois Hougaard, Willem Alberts and Beast Mtwarira we most likely have the best impact from the bench of all the teams.

So as much as I listen to the critics from all over the world, it is just maybe a case of everyone outside the camp missing a trick of what has been transpiring inside the springbok squad over the past few weeks.

Either that, or I am just blowing smoke up my own back side.

Good post..........................................(chimney)

I've been thinking for the last two years that Aussie will win the whole thing. Right up until about a couple of weeks ago. SA are united and quietly going about their business. Frans Steyn is a big loss for them (though I can't believe de Villiers on him being a bigger loss than Carter for us), but they are mighty impressive at the moment and I'm picking them to win this weekend. If NZ get through I'd say they would be more likely to get at Slade as they prefer a rush d over a drift d.

Danie Rossouw has been a revelation. Well done that man. Most crucial player this weekend though? Heinrich Brüssow.

Backed SA from the start, and still confident that they will win!

And as I said..... from the start SA v FRA final!

Very good post Biltong. I think you boys are primed for a good few battles in the next few weeks. In spite of Divvy, SA are always dangerous and they just get on with their own way of doing things. Can be vunerable at times but other times are very machine like and clinical. v England last year is a good example of this.

I do feel though that when the game is played at pace then you have problems. You also tend to be in disarray when NZ attack the breakdown and match you physically, it’s almost like SA has nowhere to go (a bit Ivan Drago-ish in the last round of Rocky IV if you like). Australia got on top in the forwards this year which was a surprise but I expect a SA win this week.

If we should meet next Sunday then it shall be a scene only the Armageddon could ever hope to match….

Du Preez's kicking is normally great but if him and Steyn are off, then Aussie and NZ will hurt you in broken play. Fourie's kicking hasn't been up to his usual standards this year and Steyn can give you a chance sometimes.

disneychilly wrote:Du Preez's kicking is normally great but if him and Steyn are off, then Aussie and NZ will hurt you in broken play. Fourie's kicking hasn't been up to his usual standards this year and Steyn can give you a chance sometimes.

remember Lambie is there, and him and Ruan Pienaar are not too shabby.

Looks like a NZ SA semi to me. And I really don't know who'll win it.

On the NH side of the draw, barring a rather unlikely but not impossible leap in performance from England or France, I think Ireland will just have the experience to get past the Welsh and whoever wins from England France.

But really, it's very close in both sides of the draw, imo.

My almost certainly wrong guess is an all green final. And if it is, I couldn't call that either.

I posted an article a few weeks ago saying I thought South Africa would win the whole thing. I think their forwards are brilliant and the team as a whole play a pragmatic game which is superior to anyone else. I think they will strangle New Zealand and Australia and will meet Wales in the final.

Hi biltong yeah ive had a change of heart on the oz one.
The combination of the oz injuries and inability to get key combinations settled and SA getting a roll on will see SA safely through this weekend.
Oz will need to take risks and SA will know this.

Desperation will give way to structure and order. Oz as always could win but they will need an intensity like the brisbane 3N final to do so. This is looking less likely now.

Sa remain strong in key areas the pack being the main area to hurt oz and desperation could lead to an audience with steyn for the ozzies.

Still think eden park and the SA defence will be SAs bogey in the semi. So far key attacks havnt been able to finish off moves that perhaps the abs might. The NZ pack is now at peak and with reid kaino and mccaw we can now at least match the SA pack.

I think carters omission has been blown out of proportion and knowing this now will only strengthen their resolve.

Yeah i have to say...i put my money down on SA well before the tourney...and i still think they could do it.

Biltong, anyone with any rugby sense knows that it will take one hell of a performance from one of the other remaining teams to put the 'Boks out of this World Cup.

I have to agree with the consesus here, the Boks are looking very good and certainly have the key ingredients to defeat Australia (unfortunately for me). The weather forecast is for a wet day again on Sunday in Wellington and this will also suit the SA's brutal style of rugby as opposed to Australia's expansive and speedy game.

But don't write off the Wallabies just yet.... With a few guys coming back and an overdue good forwards performance they could be a handful for the Boks. They can't keep performaing that badly again, surely!!!

And Biltongbek - don't take media sources too personally, their opinions (in Australia especially) don't reflect what the average rugby supporter thinks and they sometimes cross the line with criticism in order to create headlines and increase their distribution. It's all good mate.

Its strange...but the Aussies are the one team i really dont fancy in this WC.

I just think the other teams have much more to offer...especially upfront.

Id put my money on Ireland or Wales over Australia this WC

Yeah I read papers from NZ, Aussie, the UK, Ireland, SA and France (gotta make use of that French degree somehow). SA are sneaking under the radar again. Aussie will be a hell of a challenge but I think Biltong should be pretty happy. Great depth when you consider Frans Steyn and Juan Smith are out, but Jean de Villiers and Heinrich Brüssow are in. Not exactly losing a great deal in terms of how good the replacements are!

I didn't really want everyone to agree with me, where's the fun in that?

Gotta alert everyone to the fact that SA are now the favourites mate! You know how many times the favourites stuff up knockout games in this comp!

Well I can honestly say we have never been the favourites yet, so sorry my friend you aren't going to convince anyone now either.

Hi,biltong from pessimst to optimist in a few months,The BOKS have ALWAYS been among the favourites.

I´ve seen you comment on the stuff website Biltong. I never bother there. Some people need a voice because they have none in the flesh. There are more keyboard warriors (not just Kiwis because it is a World Cup in NZ after all) than you can shake a stick at. (As an aside, Billy Connolly once described how strange he finds that stick shaking expression. Along with he wouldn´t say boo to a goose, it falls in the category of things that just will never happen).

The Boks are typecast much like England. Big, brutish pack and percentage rugby. If you score tries, you just get the flyhalf mentioned for how good his kicking was without focusing on the fact he was kicking conversions as well as penalties.

You guys are looking good. Aussie confidence was sky high before the tournament. Cooper was producing the goods and there was talk of Aussie depth. A few unfortunate injuries, a loss to Ireland and now a quarter final against SA instead of Wales. It´s not all lost but you get the sense that their confidence has been knocked. I do believe they will come back much stronger this game but it is in the forwards where the game will be won. SA need to make a step up from their pool play. They played better as things went on but they´re capable of more and will need that little bit more. I do think the advantage is with SA and if you can rattle Cooper and put pressure on that Aussie pack, then I think mistakes will come from which you can benefit.

Just be very weary biltong that this buildup is similar to brisbane. Not a lot of talk coming out of the oz camp in their usual manner.
The only way i see them beating SA is to get such a big early lead and hold on as they wont compete for 80 with the bok 1-10.
Deans will give them full license to attack and wlll expect a ferocious start.
A hijak as in brisbanes first 40. That was the first moment i thought oz might win the wcup.
Problem now is despite that, they might not be good enough to last with their problems.
They have their stars back. But with no game time theyll need to gel immediately

Yes taylorman, I expect the Ozzies to come out firing, I was chatting to my wife earlier and said to her OZ will want to score early tries which will boost their confidence and give them momentum, it will be crucial for us to contain them the first 20 minutes. They will want to put the game out of reach early

belief at last biltong...you guys will win. Handle Aus the way you did Waes, defend very very flat and tight round the breakdown and prevent them getting ball wide

But you are blowing smoke up your butt

Question for you...what is the future for PDV if SA win?

Gatts you are a sadist my friend, now why would you even think of bringing that into a serious discussion.

Shame on you.

In all seriousness, SARU has already forced his hand to bring in technically more astute guys, so they are fully aware of his deficiencies

It's funny, I had Oz down as my team to win the cup before it began (especially after their Tri win) but now it seems as though they've been knocked backwards and SA - who I expected to win the group but then de Villiers to make some crazy selection/pronouncements/claims and that will mess up SA and gear on their opponents.
But instead they seem to be slowly going through the gears and getting stronger.

But Biltong how much do you think the loss of Steyn will effect you?

Ps biltong - you inspired me to stop being lazy and have a look at some NZ papers opinion on Wales - and I couldn't believe it, they were loving us, and seem to have adopted us as a second team!

(didn't think much of the other NH teams though)

No one underestimates the Boks .least of all me,the article[letter]printed is to me inaccurate.Samoa scored a good try,the second half Bok try was`nt given.
Hougaard deliberately striking Williams several times,getting away with nothing.Williams retaliating see`s Red.
Neither side was blamelessin the first half alone in the space of ten minutes.
Deliberate trip,deliberate knock down,two taking a man off the ball by the Boks.Burger delibarately[especially]trying to wind up the Samoans.
Samoa was as bad,lots of swinging arms,sly punches by both sides.
Be honest it was a bad tempered match by BOTH sides,Boks terminology for physical often equals thuggery.
NO I am not singling out the Boks they are no more guilty than any other side.
Owens is a good Ref. but let both sides get away with too much in the first half.A yellow to each side in the first quarter would have calmed things down.
I agree the Boks had the game under control but when Franny Steyn came off you had to up the ante.
Brisbane there was a team rested for a fortnight at home,and lots of talk of getting physical BEFORE the match.
The All Blacks travelled in two parties to Aus,12 changes and complacent after Eden Park they would win.
NO Kaino,Read and Thomson injured in first quarter Mc caw trying to do 3 mens job in the back row.
The decisive try being scored going thru the tackle of a one armed man.
Whats so different to any other SH match,you both know the game of each other.Injuries to key players on both sides will effect it ,discipline and Goal kicking is likely to be decisive.SA have 3 Class kickers but Piettersen may not be fit..
Your defence has`nt been really tested,and you have`nt played high risk games.
The All Blacks in the first 10 minutes versus france were under all sorts of pressure.
In the past they would have conceded early points.
Coaches tailor there gameplan to suit the opposition,you have yet to meet
a high risk attack.
Not helter skelter like Samoa ,but structured high risk play that Aus,the ABs ,or France at there best can provide.
The studio pundits bug me sometimes,when France was playing the All Blacks.It was all France were realy trying to win,next night different punditsd,same match.France was poor,did`nt want to be there wer`nt trying etc.
Don`t bother what the pundits or media says its forthere own sides,look at ALL the games played by both sides you`ve seen and decide for yourself.
The Boks have done what they had too,Australia have been barely adequate for most of RWC.
The All Blacks group was arguably as strong as any,France DID come to play,Japan,Tonga, Canada all played well through out.
IF the All Blacks have a problem it is getting the first choice team on the park.
Injuries will decide the semi-final,and final a fully fit AB side[if they get there]
would be formidable for anyone,.
Good luck to both sides.a great game and NO injuries to close to call.

Smirrnof, yeah there are some nice articles about wales and Ireland, I think losing Frans Steyn will definitely affect the way we attack, Steyn was in the best form I have seen him since 2007, and he got over the advantage line in a way I haven`t seen JDV do for quite some time, he is also a more intelligent runner and much better distributor, but hopefully he will have inspired JDV to do better

Sorry,for Hougaard read Broussow/Williams

Sorry Bill mate, but I just dont think there is all that much difference between the sides at the quarter finals stage.

So no, I don't think SA are using the Pool stages as a warm up, they almost lost two games.

Most of the pools were closer than many people anticipated prior to the RWC. A lot of people who posted that and even gave facts hinting that this RWC would be tightly fought were often derided.

I think a lot of pundits see SA as the best equiped team to KO NZ but I think the match vs. Aus will be very difficult and I see them as slight underdogs.

Aus know they won't win in an armwrestle vs. SA and have the game to frustrate die bokke. They are an unpredictable team and play a very random choatic brand of rugby, esp. with Cooper pulling the strings.

If Aus can get parity up front then they will be very tough to beat. With Moore & Pocock back and Bismaarck & Alberts on the bench I can see them competing in the tight... much more than they did vs. Ire.

maestegmafia

In some ways you are right but I do still think that both SA & Aus didn't go into their respected matches with Wal & Ire like they would a 3N match. I think they were both surprised by how their opponents played, thought they would play well fo 60mins but then tire and then the 3N teams would cruise to victory much like they have always done in the past.

SA survived, Aus got shocked but if either play Wal or Ire again I doubt they will take them lightly in this RWC again & they wouldn't make the same mistake as they did in the pools.

If SA and Wales get to the final, will Samoa feel better about going out feeling they could be the third best team! Looking at the tables, group D was a tough group, if Samoa were in group B or C I think they would have qualified, they conceded less than 50 point and scoring 91 points. SA did very well to concede the least number of points in the most competitive group in contrast to NZ who were in the easiest group conceded twice the points of SA. I believe defences win RWC's so for me SA are my favorite team to win the competition. Using the same logic Wales, Ireland and England have conceded the same number of points but Wales were in a much tougher group and scored many more points than the other teams so should be favorites to get to the final.

Maesteg, I grant you the fact that Wales was a close game, but almost losing to Samoa I cannot agree with you, Samoa never got within one score when they were attacking like demons possessed.

Yes in my personal opinion Oz are the favourites for this match, but it would be dangerous for Oz to under estimate our abilities, I am merely suggesting with this article that perhaps we are under estimating the goings on of the Boks

It seems like a constant underestimation of the Bok is happening. But they havent delivered as much as we all anticipated for quite some time.

I suppose that hope of a greater ability is fired by the occasional win over a top three nation, but for whatever the reason they do not seem to be able to scale the lofty heights of four years ago.

So just so i get this straight , Boks have toughest group win all their matches concede the least points with the least amount of possesion (content to kick and defend) but are still viewed as the weakest Tri Nation?

And btw Alan, Frans Steyn only came off with two minutes to go .

by people that know and understnd rugby your not the weakest tri natio n- you are and allways were top 2.

I still cant work out how Australia won the tri nations if their scrum was as inconsistent as it was against Ireland.

mystiroakey wrote:by people that know and understnd rugby your not the weakest tri natio n- you are and allways were top 2.

On current form and recent results the Bok are the weakest, until this week they were ranked third in the IRB rankings, having been so for quite while and third place in the Tri Nations both indicate that.

They may have finished the Tri Nations with a five penalty kick win over the ABs at home, but they lost the other 3 games. Not saying they are a bad team, far from it.

My point is that all the quarter finalists are very close on form, bar the Kiwis and Argies who both prop up either end of the extremities.

1(1) NEW ZEALAND 90.62
2(2) SOUTH AFRICA 86.71
3(3) AUSTRALIA 84.84
4(4) ENGLAND 84.54
5(6) IRELAND 83.14
6(7) WALES 80.73
7(8) ARGENTINA 80.28
8(5) FRANCE 79.72

Cymroglan wrote:I still cant work out how Australia won the tri nations if their scrum was as inconsistent as it was against Ireland.

The Aussies didnt really use their scrum much besides restarting , they also had Stephen Moore who's a much better scrummager than faingaa. Pocock in the side caused havoc as usual at the breakdown and Coopers main strike runner Digby pretty much destroyed Bok and NZ defences. All three were missing vs Ireland and yes they are that important

Bullsbok wrote:

Cymroglan wrote:I still cant work out how Australia won the tri nations if their scrum was as inconsistent as it was against Ireland.

The Aussies didnt really use their scrum much besides restarting , they also had Stephen Moore who's a much better scrummager than faingaa. Pocock in the side caused havoc as usual at the breakdown and Coopers main strike runner Digby pretty much destroyed Bok and NZ defences. All three were missing vs Ireland and yes they are that important

Not to detract from the talent of the many players that did play against Ireland. Beale, O'Connor, Ashley-Cooper, Cooper, Genia, Alexander, Vickerman, Horwill, Elsom, and Samo all have pretty decent reputations. I think Samo did far more than Moore, Pocock or Ione against the ABs to win the Tri-Nations this year.

Everyones entitled to their own opinions.

Bulsbok,thanks for info about Franny Steyn had`nt realised it was that late.
Sweeping statements,toughest group on paper maybe in reality no tougher
than the All Blacks group.Tonga ,Japan,Canada were all on a par or better than Fiji or Usa,but not Samoa.France played until there heads went down.
Who ever underates any Bok side RWC or anywhere certainly not me.
This years 3ns form means little neather NZor SA bothered, in my opinion
there is little between all 3 at any time 1,2,3 IRB ratings all the time change
but mostly NZ number one.
In Super Rugby or 3Ns back the home team always,RWC`s are different any one of 4 can win those[so far].

maestegmafia wrote:It seems like a constant underestimation of the Bok is happening. But they havent delivered as much as we all anticipated for quite some time.

I suppose that hope of a greater ability is fired by the occasional win over a top three nation, but for whatever the reason they do not seem to be able to scale the lofty heights of four years ago.

Maesteg, occasional win over a top three nation?

Am I understanding this correctly?

I am not going to justify some of our losses, but let me just give you some stats, since the last RWC we won 5 out of 11 tests vs NZ, and 4 out of 11 vs OZ, whilst OZ only won 3 out of 14 vs NZ, in my book that is a regular occurence not Occasional.

Granted we had a very poor 2010, however this year`s tri nation was sacraficed.

I am also pretty sure any country in the world will take a 5 penalty goal win over the All Blacks, in fact whether you want to criticise the way we beat the All Blacks. The fact is we are the team that has by quite some distance the best record against them

Bill we are talking about recent form for the World Cup... ! last 18 months.

And as you say the Bok are off form.

Well it won't be much longer then all this speculation will be history

Bullsbok wrote:

Cymroglan wrote:I still cant work out how Australia won the tri nations if their scrum was as inconsistent as it was against Ireland.

The Aussies didnt really use their scrum much besides restarting , they also had Stephen Moore who's a much better scrummager than faingaa. Pocock in the side caused havoc as usual at the breakdown and Coopers main strike runner Digby pretty much destroyed Bok and NZ defences. All three were missing vs Ireland and yes they are that important

Have you seen the stats on Digby from the 3N? They are truly astonishing.

No, please do tell

I was just searching for the site I read them on, until the desire to have another beer overcame me. Suffice to say I'm terribly sorry but I can't remember where I read it.

It was staggering. He seemed to top the offensive stats for line breaks and meters run by such a margin that it seemed everyone else was asleep during the game. Not only that but his defensive record was imperious, very near the top tacklers and fairly highly rated in breakdown arrivals and turn overs. It looked for all the world like his mother had hacked the site and bigged him up a bit.

Well he is quite a talent

Since the game went professional The All Blacks have played 186 games
losing 33 and drawing 2.
Australia 14 wins out of 42 games,South Africa 13 wins out of 41 games,
France have won 4 ,England 2.an 81.80 win rate.
Under Graham Henry that percentage is near 85%,only France twice have
of NH sides since 2003.
The Boks in 2010 could well have won 3 and should have won 2 in 2010 3Ns.
The 2011 Boks losses,and the Bok home win against the All Blacks were all scratch sides.NONE of them had any chance versus the relavent A sides.
THE only significant results 2011 3Ns was Australias loss and win to the All Blacks.The Home win versus the Boks.