What are the chances of NZ retaining their home world cup record

Being typical of many scenarios being floated prior to World cup quarter final time...this is no different...

What are the chances of the AB's retaining the home WCup record and maintaining the minimum 20 point win in doing so.

NZ currently are unbeaten in world cup matches at home and have a minimum win of 20 points- 2 matches, both over France, both at Eden Park (87 and this years pool).

NZ face Argentina this weekend and have never lost to them. They have a 45-14 average winning score, 6 tries to one but have never played them in the world cup.

NZ last beat the remaining teams by 20 points on:
Oz- July 2010
Boks- July 2011 (though July 2010 first team)
France- last week
England- June and Nov 2008
Wales- June 2010
Ireland- Nov. 2010 and June 2010 (by 40)
Wales- June 2010

The above matches were obviously played all over the world but we only have to go back to Nov 2008 (2010 for all but England) to find a match we've won by 20 points against any of the last 8 (bar Argentina as we havnt played them for years)

The next 3 matches the AB's play will be in front of 60,000 people at Eden Park, the venue we have lost one test in 37 at since 1986 and won our only world cup at- obviously a place we play better at than anywhere else in that period.

What are the chances of the AB's winning their next 3 matches at Eden Park by 20 or more.

I think they're not to bad.

Evening Taylor,
I don't think I would care if the ABs won by 20. I would care if they won. I think the chances of them winning are still quite good. But, I wouldn't worry about the spread. I'm sure Graham Henry is only worried about the trophy.

Evening Doc, saw your diagnosis's (is that the plural) on the injuries last week. Interesting.

Just hope it doesn't happen to anyone else though that's a bit wishful. I think there's actually a lot of breakable bits (medical term) out there on the bodies of all the last 8 players.

I don't care about the points either but I felt like throwing out a best case scenario out there for the AB's, and although not likely, its not an impossible scenario.

I think we'll get 20 on Argie and with the 'remains' of the Oz SA match we could get 20 there at a pinch. After that it would be a brave person to pick a NH team against them at Eden park (sticking with the best case scenario of course).

Worse case scenario is easy...we 'choke'..but who didnt know that. Its as old as the game itself.

What are the chances of NZ winning the RWC?

Before the tournament i would have said NZ chances of winning is about 90/95% chance of winning.

But now the tournament is getting to the knock out stages i am not so sure.
They play Argentina this week. It will depend on how many of the ABS survive this game to play in the next.

I know most teams have injuries, but some teams are looking in better shape than others right now,If the Abs win this week then they could come unstuck next week, especialy if they play the Boks next week.

I would say the chances of the Abs winning the RWC is fair but no more than that just now.

I said this in 2009 already and still believe it to be the most likely scenario that the All Blacks will win, having beaten most opponents by 20 or more points is a given for many teams. With the pressure the All Blacks will face from either SA or OZ next weekend and the fact that Carter is not around I think you can dismiss the 20 point scenario.

NZ will be out to win, it will be their final and too important to worry about anything else

biltongbek wrote:I said this in 2009 already and still believe it to be the most likely scenario that the All Blacks will win, having beaten most opponents by 20 or more points is a given for many teams. With the pressure the All Blacks will face from either SA or OZ next weekend and the fact that Carter is not around I think you can dismiss the 20 point scenario.

NZ will be out to win, it will be their final and too important to worry about anything else

You are flattering to deceive Biltong...you know as well as i do that SA will beat NZ in the semi and then go on to win RWC 2011

The 20 is just a number. It just happens to be the current number.
Just throwing the possibility out there.
Be interesting to know who pulls out between now and saturday.
I reckon there will be one or two significant injuries such is the punishment of this cup.
The minnow teams have fronted far more physically than i even would have dreamed of.
Let alone the qualifiers.
If you and oz go to the wire what a match that will be.
Has there been a 3N last 8 match yet? im on my phone so too much effort to check

Its a world cup . just woirry about winning.

Taylorman I assume you mean in previous tournaments?

1991 OZ vs NZ semi final score OZ 16 NZ 6
1995 SA vs NZ final xocre SA 15 NZ 12
1999 OZ vs SA semi final score OZ 27 SA 21
1999 SA vs NZ third place play off, score SA 22 NZ 18
2003 NZ vs SA quarter final, score NZ 29 SA 9

I reckon if NZ make the final they will be confident against whomever they play. If they beat Argentina the SF is the kitchen sink game. I'd back the winner of that to take the final.

NZ thumped SA by 20 in the 03 QF Taylorman.

Yeah, we are still ashamed of that period when Rudolf Streauli and Kamp staaldraad made a mockery of our bok team.

In fact england thumped us by 19 in the pool rounds as well.

I'd say Krige's team was the worst SA team I've seen Biltong. Dark days indeed. Was the worst loss for you the 53-3 at Twickenham or the 52-16 at Pretoria?

I don't want to talk about it.

I'm sorry man. Wanna talk about the PE game this year?

disneychilly wrote:I reckon if NZ make the final they will be confident against whomever they play. If they beat Argentina the SF is the kitchen sink game. I'd back the winner of that to take the final.

NZ thumped SA by 20 in the 03 QF Taylorman.

Yes and thats the potential for the semi this time.
SA has just come through a bruising samoa match- with injuries.

We just dont know how the bodies are after that match. Oz you could say are fairly fresh so although SA should take it out so should it be incredibly taxing on them, their reward being an eden park test qith an also likely fresh ab side- depending on injuries.

Im still waiting for mccaw to drop at any point but i know read having come through last week is firing to go now. After the arg match i think we're going to start seeing all the usual doom and gloom posts about why they all bother to come.

For god`s sake take it one match at a time Mc caw has a sore foot,he`s managed it throught the season.All the media experts reckon he`s on one leg.
He had a sore foot playing France did you think he was on crutches?
Mc caw at 90% is better than most at 100%he breaks down permanently
a replacement comes in.
Forget this 2o points rubbish a win is a win,there is no reason to asume anyone will be injured in the semis.
It is ghoulish wishing it on people,it happens it happens you just have get back on the horse and move on.
Have faith in your team Thomson is no Mc Caw but won`t let anyone down in a full strength pack.