Crossing the White Line - RWC 2011

Will tries win the Rugby World Cup 2011 in New Zealand? A look back at the try-scoring feats of the various teams at the RWC shows that in the big games, the whitewash has not been crossed too often as stifling defences from the top teams win out against attacking styles.

The tallies for tries scored and conceeded to date for the 8 knockout stage teams, including the results of the quarter-finals, looks like this:

New Zealand 38-7 = 31
Australia 26 -4 = 22
Wales 26-5 = 21
South Africa 21-3 = 19
England 20-3 = 17
Ireland 16-6 = 10
Argentina 11-5 = 6
France 15-11 = 4

On the face of it, the higher try-scoring, positive attacking teams have advanced to the semis. Two of the meanest defences before the quarters kicked off - England and South Africa - lost out.

But, of course, there's one exception to the rule. One that doesn't conform to the accepted thinking. France.

South Africa and England - supposedly notorious for playing unadventurous, kick-dominated, pressure rugby easily outscored the French in the try stakes. Even conservative Ireland, have scored more tries than them. To cap it all, the French lost two games compared to Eng/SA/Ire's 4-0 in the pool stages. And yet, it's the French who are staying on. And the French who are being lauded for playing adventurous, thrilling rugby.

Which led me to look more closely at the try tallies, and against whom they were scored and how much defence has played a part in a team's progression.

New Zealand's whopping tally of 38 tries largely came from two double-digit games against the "minnow" nations of Canada (12) and Japan (13). Both teams were saving themselves for bigger matches they might actually win, and the sides fielded reflected that. But NZ still managed to put 6 tries on Tonga and 5 on France. A strong testament to their superb running game. It was Argentina who managed best against them holding the host nation to just two tries whilst conceding one in the process.

Whilst scoring lots of tries against Tier Two nations may be lots of fun and make your try tally look good, for the purposes of this analysis, I think it's how a team performs against a Tier One nation where it really counts. Thus New Zealand have a Tier One Score of :
7 tries to 3 conceeded.

Wales has been another form team in the tournament and their try tally speaks of a team willing to attack. Of their 26 tries, 21 came from relatively easy games against Namibia (12) and Fiji (9). Samoa is probably the exception to the Tier One classification and as they proved against SA and Wales, scoring tries against them ain't easy – so I’m going to include them. Wales try tally therefore, is:
5 tries scored to 4 conceeded in their big games.

Australia have also posted 26 tries to date and were being hyped before the RWC as having the best backline in the world that would puncture defences, almost at will. Things were looking good when they posted 4 against Italy and conceeded none. The match against Ireland provided an empty rattle in the tin, with defences winning the day, and penalties also. The USA, on their second four-day turnaround, and looking ahead to the Italy fielded a second string, and Australia promptly beat them all ends up running in 11 tries. Russia, like their other games, coughed up plenty with the Wallabies posting 10 tries, but rather sloppily caught napping for 3 against them. The Wallabies try-tally to date is:
5 tries to 0 against Tier One opposition.

Ireland’s tally of 16 was largely boosted by the Russia game (9) and US (3). With 3 against Italy and 1 try in their loss to Wales, their try tally for Tier Ones was a miserable:
4 tries scored and 3 conceeded.

Argentina’s top tier tally is even lower with Romania (6) and Georgia (3) providing the most of their 11 try haul from the tournament. Top tier tally was:
2 tries scored and 3 conceeded.

South African fans are probably still smarting for having played most of the rugby, and still losing the game. They got 18 of their 21 tries against the hapless Namibians and Fijians, whilst posting one against Samoa and two against Wales.
Their try tally for the top teams, including Samoa was 3 tries for and 3 tries against.

England arrived at the tournament billed as the “most-boring” favourites and promptly handed their enemies ammunition in their one try to nil defeat of Argenitna, 16 of their tries came against Romania (10) and Georgia (6). The French decided to turn up for the Rosbifs, and so England’s tournament tally ended: 4 tries scored and 2 conceeded.

And finally, we come to the French. They have scored 15 tries to date in the tournament. 10 of them came from Japan (6) and Canada (4) much like New Zealand’s lion’s share. They posted 2 in their loss against NZ, 1 against Tonga, and 2 in their victory over England. Their top-tier try tally is 4 tries for and 7 against.

Thus the Top Tier games try for and against tally looks like this:

Australia 5-0 =5
New Zealand 7-3 = 4
England 4 -2 =2
Wales 5-4 = 1
Ireland 4 -3 = 1
South Africa 3-3 = 0
Argentina 2-3 = -1
France 4-7 = -3

Australia with 4 tries against Italy and 1 against SA, with NO tries conceded look to be sitting at the top of the tree.

Ultimately, will it be their defence that will get them to the final and lift the cup?

The one thing SA didn't do today was be conservative, they attacked with ball in hand throughout the game.

That is about as much as I want to say about today's match.

New Zealand will walk this tournament.

bilton i know you are too proud a man to blame the ref for a defeat, but i thought bryce lawrence made some harsh decisions which counted against your boys today, and the breakdown was a shambles!

i honestly thought that your boys would go all the way, commiserations but no doubt you will continue to be a force within world rugby

Thanks gavinDragon, yeah we need to do some rethink, get a coach appointed on merit and blood the young talent, even if we struggle for a year or two, there is a lot of young talent in SA.

im sure it will happen and look forward to the end of season tours over the next couple of years

I hope it's Nick Mallett. He would be a brilliant SA coach and after the job he's done with Italy he must be in with a shout.

He will be my first choice coach. We played our best brand of rugby under Mallet, he never sacraficed tests for some other tournament, he empowered the players and inspired them to be the best they could be, truth be told he didn't have the most talented players at the time, but got them working as a team.