Rugby Union 6Ns. What if the Euro fails?

Well that obviously would be a disaster for everyone (including the UK) - and that goes beyond RU.

But I''m concentrating on European rugby prospects.

Currently there are 3.5 Euro zone nations in the 6Ns and an equal number of Sterling area members (which would equally kop the fall-out).

Initially it depends on whether Italy's financial position is viable (which the bwankers seem to be intent on undermining). If Italy goes then the Euro as it stands is pretty much dead - apart maybe from the northern states which are not already involved in bale-outs.

It's almost too difficult to contemplate the aftermath. And RU might be the least of it.

Portnoy wrote:Well that obviously would be a disaster for everyone (including the UK) - and that goes beyond RU.

But I''m concentrating on European rugby prospects.

Currently there are 3.5 Euro zone nations in the 6Ns and an equal number of Stirling area members.

Initially it depends on whether Italy's financial position is viable (which the bwankers seem to be intent on undermining). If Italy goes then the Euro as it stands is pretty much dead - apart maybe from the northern states which are not already involved in bale-outs.

It's almost too difficult to contemplate the aftermath. And RU might be the least of it.

So nothing at all to do with the vast amount of sovereign debt that the politicians have racked up?

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

Portnoy wrote:Well that obviously would be a disaster for everyone (including the UK) - and that goes beyond RU.

But I''m concentrating on European rugby prospects.

Currently there are 3.5 Euro zone nations in the 6Ns and an equal number of Stirling area members.

Initially it depends on whether Italy's financial position is viable (which the bwankers seem to be intent on undermining). If Italy goes then the Euro as it stands is pretty much dead - apart maybe from the northern states which are not already involved in bale-outs.

It's almost too difficult to contemplate the aftermath. And RU might be the least of it.

So nothing at all to do with the vast amount of sovereign debt that the politicians have racked up?

As,
Fully agree with the the fact that that politicians have always run scared of defying bwankers decisions in a global market.

But I can recall the 1967 and 1975 runs on sterling which both resulted in devaluations. The bwankers have always been able to sniff a profit ruthlessly.

Hmm, the major holders of Italian govt debt are ... banks - so not really that good for them if they have to write it off?

There appears to be a rather tenuous link here to rugby but hey ho may as well try and get it back on track.

I don't think the Euro situation will have too much affect on the 6N's. Might lessen the amount of travelling fans there are but that's pretty much it. I mean what other effect realistically could it have? I can't see it not going ahead anyway if that's what you're alluding to.

There appears to be no shortage of money in French rugby. I can confirm that for Wales v France, there are genuinely loads of French going.

3 poss scenarios we might think about:
- Greece drops out of eurozone: no effect
- Italy drops out of eurozone, € limps on: likely cheaper to travel to Italy, likely less Italy fans will travel
- Italy drops out, eurozone explodes: end of life as we know it!! (ok, maybe a little over-dramatic) poss slightly cheaper travel to Italy & France, world poss in recession

Brilliant news that is Stag. Wales v France is one of my fave fixtures, their travelling fans are always absolutely brilliant.

Portnoy if the Euro fails then we are all fecked

However from a rugby point of view I'd be looking at an influx of players from Munster and Leinster up to Ulster. Obviously there's some deadwood down there but O'Connell, Sexton, O'Brien, BOD and Nacewa would fit right in up here

there is so much more to a single currency than just a single bank note. it was allways gonna fail.If you cant have single financial policies within the nations then big time FAIL!! let it happen sooner rather than later and we can get back to having cheaper beers in italy,spain and greece.

but to the main question if the euro fails it woint have an impact on the 6n's- well i very much doubt it anyway- it really wont be the end of the world- life will go on!

3.5 plus 3.5 is 7 isn't it?

Glas a du wrote:3.5 plus 3.5 is 7 isn't it?

Cracker!

lol but whats the .5 anyway

Capitalism is creaking as much as the RFU.

And the similarities are striking

the politicians are the RFU bureaucrats and the egos in the team profiting from revelatory RWC autobiographies compare with the investment bwankers trying to cash in by designing fiscal vehicles to profit out of the speculation that lead us to this mess in the first place

roddersm wrote:

Glas a du wrote:3.5 plus 3.5 is 7 isn't it?

Cracker!

Mea culpa. 2.5 plus 3.5.

Astonishingly Spain is being by-passed in the collapse of the dominoes.

They are going straight for France's jugular.

Not good apart from the Believe (©Guinness/Gibbo) camp.

So Dreamer, What will be the Sterling/Franc exchange rate come 2013?

not sure why that's directed at me Portnoy


And I don't understand exchange rates so don't have a clue!

Yea Dreamer I want answers now.

How do financial risk and business risk effect the discount rate used to appraise a longterm investment and what does that mean for the Scarlets?

Answer Me!!!!

red_stag wrote:Yea Dreamer I want answers now.

How do financial risk and business risk effect the discount rate used to appraise a longterm investment and what does that mean for the Scarlets?

Answer Me!!!!

Aha, but will the adjustment come thru the discount factor or the cash flows themselves?

Bloody good point Asbo - I agree its looking good for Scotland isn't it.

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

red_stag wrote:Yea Dreamer I want answers now.

How do financial risk and business risk effect the discount rate used to appraise a longterm investment and what does that mean for the Scarlets?

Answer Me!!!!

Aha, but will the adjustment come thru the discount factor or the cash flows themselves?

You are both speaking a foreign language. Translations are required on this forum!

Ermm. The World economy hovers teetering above an abyss.

I'd predict that if the Euro crisis cannot be salved, then Sterling and the $US will be not be critically (in turn) immune from the contagion.

Anyone prepared to bet that oil prices will not be set against the Yuan in the next 3-5 years?

I agree Portnoy. Luckily Billy Twelvetrees and Manu Tuilagi can fix everything.

They kind of are anyhew, Portnoy, in that the yuan is quasi-pegged/managed vs the US$ already

Much cheaper for British fans travelling abroad!!!

Why don't we just send North in to sort out the Bwankers and stop anyone putting the squeeze on Greece and Italy (or any of the other countries).

I think this could well be the end of Western dominance over the world unless North steps in - because lets be fair, Chuck Norris isn't pulling his weight anymore

Subsistence farming is the only way forward - the European politicians are criminally slow and indecisive.

The other solution, and I can't believe this hasn't already been suggested, is to put Gordon McKie in charge of it all - Supreme President of Europe. This is a man who knows how to save a few pennies and win friends at the same time.

From a rugby perspective, doubt it'll make much difference. Were the choice to come between buying a rugby ticket and buying food I think there's enough of us on here to make the right decision........... (notice I didn't include drink in the equation, not buying drinks would be silly)

Holy merde, kids,
Despite the dire forecasts, your loving bankers and politicians will not let the global economy go over the abyss. This is neither blind loyalty nor misguided hope. It is the practical reality that it is in (almost) no one's long term interest for a global meltdown. Greece might fail. But that won't disrupt the economic macro. Most core Euro economists felt Greece never belonged anyway, especially since less than half of their citizens actually pay their taxes. Exit strategies have existed for them since the outset.
The critical bit is to make sure Italy doesn't drag the whole thing under. The global economists and politicians finally pushed out Burlesconi, who was driving the financial lie to the Italian population. A rough stabilisation will come.

How this impacts rugby? I think we survive it. Maybe more people will start to play Rugby since it is the ultimate team sport. Since we need to work together, it is the perfect educational tool to survive the tough times ahead.

Oh yes. I forgot. No more bubga-bunga.

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:They kind of are anyhew, Portnoy, in that the yuan is quasi-pegged/managed vs the US$ already

The yuan is indeed quasi-pegged to the £US.

But the Western capitalist model has been exposed as fundamentally flawed since the advent of electronic globalism (no single government dared regulate their local markets)

The transfer of the balance of manufacturing/economic power to the Orient is irresistibly in train. And that does not hove well for those of us that ho;ld green values.

Portnoy wrote:But the Western capitalist model has been exposed as fundamentally flawed since the advent of electronic globalism (no single government dared regulate their local markets)

The transfer of the balance of manufacturing/economic power to the Orient is irresistibly in train. And that does not hove well for those of us that ho;ld green values.

Nobody told me it was comedy hour?! Brilliant stuff, Portnoy! And what economic model do you think that these wily Oriental types are following? Shoite, its capitalism - better tell 'em it doesn't work. I suggest another of your fantastic missives to Dr Singh and Mr Jiabao

Portnoy wrote:But the Western capitalist model has been exposed as fundamentally flawed since the advent of electronic globalism (no single government dared regulate their local markets)

Are you currently residing in Tent City??

Portnoy wrote:The transfer of the balance of manufacturing/economic power to the Orient is irresistibly in train. And that does not hove well for those of us that ho;ld green values.

irresistibly no. stupidly and with shocking short term thinking. yes.

But the costs, politically, economically, and for our own survival are becoming apparent. The worm is beginning to turn. Costs in China are going up. Costs to ship from China are going up. Supply chain from China is becoming more unreliable.
Forget green for the moment. Keep in mind our economies.
And yes, the Chinese are practising capitalism. But we did not regulate it, so we let them in the store. But they play rugby like s**t.

The complacency of rugby supporters is really astonishing apart from the erstwhile vociferous Irish (with the exception of Stag).

Strange that the Irish remain silent on the prospective future of the Euro is not impactive of their game.

What's the current Pund/Sterling/New Euro/$US/Yuan/Rupee/Yen rate?

Portnoy wrote:The complacency of rugby supporters is really astonishing apart from the erstwhile vociferous Irish (with the exception of Stag)?

Not quite sure what you mean. Am I the complacent ones or the vociferous one?

The nuance is that the prospective collapse of the Euro hits hard at home.

An analogy might be the famine.

But thankfully the English can't this time be blamed.

Portnoy wrote:But thankfully the English can't this time be blamed.

Nonsense. The pioneers of light touch banking and investment firm regulation in Europe. It's entirely the fault of the English. Everything is.

Portnoy wrote:Ermm. The World economy hovers teetering above an abyss.

I'd predict that if the Euro crisis cannot be salved, then Sterling and the $US will be not be critically (in turn) immune from the contagion.

Anyone prepared to bet that oil prices will not be set against the Yuan in the next 3-5 years?

I have salve, who needs it?

Hope it's not Tiger balm, yappy?!

Yes the English Prime Minister and Chancelor, erm Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.

Portnoy wrote:But thankfully the English can't this time be blamed.

Wrong.
Everything bad is beacuse of the mercenaries which England cynically bring into their country.

doctor_grey wrote:

Portnoy wrote:But thankfully the English can't this time be blamed.

Wrong.
Everything bad is beacuse of the mercenaries which England cynically bring into their country.

Gordon Brown?

SubsBench wrote:

doctor_grey wrote:

Portnoy wrote:But thankfully the English can't this time be blamed.

Wrong.
Everything bad is beacuse of the mercenaries which England cynically bring into their country.

Gordon Brown?

I am not a political animal,BUT after every Government change it is always
the other lots fault.So far two Governments have fallen,cures been put on the table, taken off again.
The U.S.A economy is in trouble and as always ,they are looking after number one and the rest of the world is copping the flak.
This country once had a thriving motorcar/.cycle trade,a merchant marine,shipbuilders,supporting it,coal and steel mines all gone.
There is no quick fix,at my age I doubt I will see the end of it,I was lucky I never had more than a fortnights unemployment in my life.I live on two pensions which grow by about 2%per annum,Energy bills have risen by 14.3 %.
Like many I rely on the winter fuel allowance that has been reduced by fiftypounds this year for every over 60 qualified person.[despite the cost of heating rising]
We have a Government that preachs we are all in this together,but is so right wing Thacterism was socialist by comparison.
The Welfare state was created to back up the things theWorld wars took away.
NOW if your old,unemployed,long term sick,you are a skiver,a work shy ,a drain on society.
Wars.and illness no longer cull our races,people grow older longer,Pensions designed as a poll tax for at most paying 5 years are now 3 times that.
This Government wants to take away all an employees rights in law,create a pool of unemployed desperate to take work at any price.
The same government who mays out millions in bonuses to nationlised bank
officials.
That themselves are in many cases Million ,or Billionaires,in one case one whose wife had a Million pound bonus from"NEXT" and prompltly banked it in a tax haven.
THIS Governments decision to try and solve every thing in one session of Parliament.Is because they know theres a fair bet they won`t get a Second one.
Double dip Recession is inievatable,BUT this Governments cures are like a script out of "Yes Minister"and like Turkeys voting for Xmas.
SO I ,just live one day to the next and concentrate on my Rugby.

I really dont understand all the fuss we have Sterling not the euro so it wont effect us. finally almost everyone I know has lost their job over the last few years, so are on benefits anyway, and frankly the government has already taxed small businesses to death to the point where they can't operate anymore.

My parents for example own a small haulage buiness, we lose 50% of what we earn on diesel because costs are so high, we lose 20% to income tax (70% of income gone before we have done anything). throw in road tax and insurance (very expensive for a lorry), operators licence, wages, maintenance. Then throw in all these stupid training courses we have just to create jobs for example the new CPC course.
To put it another way we do our driving test then have to go on courses to be shown by people who probably have never driven a lorry in their lives, who will teach us how to drive safely.
Basically any transport business is pretty much taxed 95% of their income one way of another. If you had a job and 95% of your wage was taken away by the taxman would you bother working?

I'm waiting for my lorry licence to become invalid when having the cpc becomes law, if you havent done the additional training you lose your licence and most drivers i know are doing this too, in a nutshell there will be massive shortages of everything simply because the lorry drivers wont exist to move the food, fuel, supplies across the country. We'd of passed our driving tests but no one will be allowed to drive because the government is about to kill the trade because of stupidity.

Well the 5 Nations survived the Depression so I expect the 6 Nations to survive this.

And two world wars and the Methodist revival (OK it was the home nations championship then)

Glas a du wrote:And two world wars and the Methodist revival (OK it was the home nations championship then)

Hmph we still played and beat France in the 19 noughties so they were still grand slams in that we beat the other four but not "official Slams" cos the RFU says so

funnyExiledScot wrote:

Portnoy wrote:But the Western capitalist model has been exposed as fundamentally flawed since the advent of electronic globalism (no single government dared regulate their local markets)

Are you currently residing in Tent City??

One of those tent city types walked past me the other day just outside the office. Good god he smelt bad.