WTF Championship Match Federer v Tsonga: A Test of Mettle

S o the two players with the best form meet for the 3rd time in two in a second final. Will Federer get into a dog fight and wrestle for the title or will he be overpowered by super Tsonga? Is it too much to expect Fed to win again based on law of probabilities? Federer seems to choke when he is chasing a record 6th title as seen at Wimbledon and the USO. My concern is his serve which hasnt been as good since his match with Nadal. Against Ferrer he was missing a lot but against Tsonga that could cost him the title.

JWT hasnt put a foot wrong apart from a few dips here and there and that final game v fed that cost him the win. I think he stands a v good chance of routing Federer and to me his form suggests he is favourite to win as I am not convinced Federer can replicate the form that destroyed Nadal.

Who will crack first? Tsonga can go in and out of concentration but of late he has mentally kept it together.

Your thoughts.

Federer is the much superior player if he is on. If he is not on, then Tsonga could well win this, he has the talent.

I am not getting off the fence

Federer is the better player but as we know, and that dates back to his hey days, teh thing that can prevent him from being in control of rallies is the energy on the ball. Be it through spin, like Nadal's, or power like Safin's. Forget the strategy when it comes to Federer, he has the best. But power can break his fine game.

If Tsonga finds the time to aim and pull, it's going to be hard work for Federer. And on those courts, he has a serious advantage.

I think it's very open unless Federer has another great day as TP says.

I would love to see a Tsonga victory, only because I think this could serve as the perfect launchpad for him to break that top 4 elite. Imagine winning a tournament beating Nadal and Federer when it really mattered. Not since Del Potro has anyone done that outside the top 4.

That said, Federer has played too well this week to serve up a dud performance. On form Federer will force Tsonga to play much more aggressively and thus even attack the Tsonga defence. Something Berdych didn't do last night. Tsonga will also find that his net play will be tested to the limit as I am sure Roger will keep a very disciplined length and offer nothing short. Tsonga's BH needs to perfect today, especially done the line. Federer's serving will be key. His second serve has been solid this week and I shall keep an eye on how many he can get back when given a chance at it. Also Tsonga must get a lot of his first serves in because I think his 2nd serve will get the treatment as his kick serve does not have the power of say an Isner or Roddick kick serve.

Federer in 2.

Yes, Feds serve needs to be spot on as he will have to benefit from as many cheap points as possible. When JWT gets a play on the ball it will make things difficult.for Fed.

My thinking is Fed does not have many more chances to contest these finals and I want to see him break this record. Just read on ATP that the form usually is the loser of thr RR goes on to defeat the player in the fina!! :-(

" I would love to see a Tsonga victory, only because I think this could serve as the perfect launchpad for him to break that top 4 elite"

Won't happen. He is too old and too inconsistent to make any impact on the top 4, even if he were to win today.

I agree coolpixel. Its not likely but not impossible either. Consistency has always been a problem for him until this week

This'll be Federer's 100th tour final and he's won 69/99. That's a phenomenal record.

coolpixel wrote:" I would love to see a Tsonga victory, only because I think this could serve as the perfect launchpad for him to break that top 4 elite"

Won't happen. He is too old and too inconsistent to make any impact on the top 4, even if he were to win today.

Far too simplistic and Soderling made number 4 at the age Tsonga is now, so that poo poo's the age theory. Had Soderling not had mono, he might have sustained it for longer than he did.

Tsonga right now is playing his best tennis to date and has shown great consistency at being at the end of competitions now. Throw that is with the drop in form of players such as Nadal, Murray and even Djokovic recently shows that there is room for one more at the table. The only better player at the net than Tsonga is Federer. Tsonga has a kick serve that other top 4 don't. Has a better FH than Murray at present. He is just as quick as Djokovic, Murray and Nadal.

To dismiss him so easily is foolish.

This is something of a defining moment for Tsonga. And Roger, actually. If Roger's performance against Nadal was a blip then one expects nothing much in 2012. If Roger can raise his level again as he did against Nadal, as he'll likely need to, then one expects big things in 2012.

Similarly for Tsonga, if he wins against an in-form Roger then he's primed for the big time in 2012.

[quote="legendkillar"]

coolpixel wrote:"

To dismiss him so easily is foolish.

I would not dismiss him. The only thing is can he maintain this form. Okay, no one can maintain form all the time but he is quite up and down, carries injuries etc. I think if he wins today, which is a strong possibility, it will boost his confidence but how that will carry him in 2012 is anyone's guess.

I think injuries have been tsonga's biggest problem over the years.

It's no coincidence that a sustained period of fitness has coincided with his most consistent year on the tour. Prior to this year he's probably missed as many tournaments as he's played due to injury and recovering from injury.

If he can remain injury free next year who knows what he can achieve. I don't think we've seen the best of him.



emancipator

If Tsonga is at his best and Federer is even slightly off colour - as he clearly was in his opening set against Ferrer - then it's a Tsonga win

If both are at their best it's a Federer win

If both are off colour ...... it's a lottery ..... but it's Fed's numbers that have a habit of coming up in such lotteries ; it's happened that way countless times over the years, we all know how often he has won matches that he could have lost. I have very clear memories of Sampras doing exactly the same. The old mantra of 'getting the job done even if it means winning ugly' is as true as it ever was. People talk today of how dominant Sampras was - and the records obviously support that - but boy, he sure had his share of less-than-inspiring victories

A win today doesn't really change much for Federer in terms of his career achievements. But for Tsonga it would undoubtedly enhance the way he is perceived by other players, by tennis fans, and more importantly - by himself !

So I agree to an extent with droogle's 'defining moment' theory. But much more so for Tsonga than Federer, who - having done it all before - begins the match with precious little to prove, win or lose

" Far too simplistic and Soderling made number 4 at the age Tsonga is now, so that poo poo's the age theory"

Soderling? Where is he today? This is not the first time tsonga has promised a lot , only to not deliver. Tsonga is going nowhere bit staying static in the rankongs or going down. Any foray into the top 4 will be even briefer than Soderling's

coolpixel wrote:" Far too simplistic and Soderling made number 4 at the age Tsonga is now, so that poo poo's the age theory"

Soderling? Where is he today? This is not the first time tsonga has promised a lot , only to not deliver. Tsonga is going nowhere bit staying static in the rankongs or going down. Any foray into the top 4 will be even briefer than Soderling's

Far too simplistic and Soderling made number 4 at the age Tsonga is now, so that poo poo's the age theory. Had Soderling not had mono, he might have sustained it for longer than he did.

In the sentence you quoted, that is what happened to Soderling.

Also if Tsonga wins today he will move up to 5th in the world. So not so static.

coolpixel wrote:"
......................... Tsonga is going nowhere bit staying static in the rankongs or going down. Any foray into the top 4 will be even briefer than Soderling's

Ah ...... coolpixel ...... your gift of clairvoyance is indeed to be envied !

A part of me agrees with you as regards inconsistency. But there's a certain player named N.Djokovic who was hardly the model of consistency for many years. And then 2011 happened .......

lags72 wrote: The old mantra of 'getting the job done even if it means winning ugly' is as true as it ever was. People talk today of how dominant Sampras was - and the records obviously support that - but boy, he sure had his share of less-than-inspiring victories

That is the problem with Federer. I recall commentators saying in many matches when he has been up against the wall he should try to 'win ugly' but he does not. If he did it often he would have won many more matches and titles along the way. He tries to get too cute with some of his shots which is eventually his downfall. He tried some of these shots with Ferrer yesterday and instead of smashing the ball or whatever he tried drop shots which came back for winners.

That is the problem with Federer. I recall commentators saying in many matches when he has been up against the wall he should try to 'win ugly' but he does not. If he did it often he would have won many more matches and titles along the way. He tries to get too cute with some of his shots which is eventually his downfall. He tried some of these shots with Ferrer yesterday and instead of smashing the ball or whatever he tried drop shots which came back for winners.

That's the fun with Federer though! He would be just like so many other players if he tried to win with boring tennis - the cute shots are what it's all about!

FedsFan & Chafazzer : fair points from both of you (he said diplomatically )

I was trying to say that Fed - like all the greats in sport - does so often grind out a win when he's not on form - or maybe should that be he used to in the past

But it's also true that his obsession with showing all his style & flair has undoubtedly cost him a good number of matches too. And it will happen more regularly now that he has lost some of his aura and he's coming up against the sort of guys who have finally tasted victory against him, after a series of one demoralising loss after another ......

Let battle commence ......

FedsFan wrote:Yes, Feds serve needs to be spot on as he will have to benefit from as many cheap points as possible. When JWT gets a play on the ball it will make things difficult.for Fed.

My thinking is Fed does not have many more chances to contest these finals and I want to see him break this record. Just read on ATP that the form usually is that the loser of the RR goes on to defeat the player in the final!! :-(

Please Fed, I~m down on my knees a begging, do anything to stop WT doing his finger wagging dance at the end.
You losing a game of tennis is one thing, but that dance...
..Nooooooooo! Double reason to win!

Cant say im fond of that dance either!!!

The outcome of todays match is on Feds racquet. Its for him to win. The only Federer who can win this is the one who showed up tuesday night. The other Federer who has been here wont do.

I hope you managed to enjoy the match FedsFan - between fingers????

FedsFan wrote:The outcome of todays match is on Feds racquet. Its for him to win. The only Federer who can win this is the one who showed up tuesday night. The other Federer who has been here wont do.

I have to disagree. For once in a Fed match, it was not about Fed. It was about JWT. Have never seen Fed so hurried from the back of the court and outhit like this. But then JWT carries a pretty big punch. This is the man who, after all, completely blew Rafa away in that AO semi in 08 ( 2 , 2 and 2, I think).
Fed had to be patient and capitalise on some bad misses, double faults, from Tsonga and mix that with some good shots of his own. He manged that and could, and should, have won in straight sets. Tsonga, although absolutely brilliant at times, can just as easily chuck in a horror service game. You just have to hang in there. Not sure there's anyone in the game that can outhit him.

I have seldom seen Fed having to scurry so fast on the baseline for so much of the match sirfred. Usually, although he covers a lot of ground because he is swift he looks effortless - he was like a 100 metre sprinter running for his life for a lot of the time yesterday

When Tsonga hits the zone, he is awesome and quite terrifying to watch!

Yep Fed did some running alright. Tsonga plays russian roulette tennis which is good to watch but unpredictable for him. He's always going to be a beast on fast surfaces and is probably also the best volleyer out there right now. But at the back of my mind I knew it was going to be hard for him to win as his consistency wasnt there - Federer like the other top guys from past few years is able to raise his level when needed and rely on it by and large. This is often what separates the best of the best. I'm not sure this is a quality Tsonga has...yet. But he's great to watch no doubt!

Fed though has lost a few 'clutch' matches in the last few years - he is still awesome as a front runner.

It was a good victory to see - that he had to tough it out - haven't really seen that from him since 2009 when he clawed his way to RG final, and how he hung in W final until the last awesome serving duel of the final set.

I hope Fedsfan that you were relieved by his 'mettle' yesterday?

sirfredperry wrote:

FedsFan wrote:The outcome of todays match is on Feds racquet. Its for him to win. The only Federer who can win this is the one who showed up tuesday night. The other Federer who has been here wont do.

I have to disagree. For once in a Fed match, it was not about Fed.

I perfectly see what you mean SF. And I would agree that Tsonga, like Safin, are amongst a few players that can take it from Federer's racquet. However, Federer, has - and yesterday certainly did have - a say in the way he rushes those big hitters into mistakes. It was most visible yesterday when Tsonga was so often lacking the footwork to make his shots more comfortable. This is what Nadal and Djoko can't quite do when facing big hitters. They can force them going for too much - and they are good at that thansk to amazing retrieving - but they don;t rush the big hitters as much and are therefore forced to do some horrific retrieving.

As we saw in that USO09 final, Federer on form can simply make th egame too fast for those big hitters. So in that respect I also agree with Fedfans herebut I see what you mean as on a good day they can simply blast Federer off court...if they are given the time to.

time please wrote:I hope you managed to enjoy the match FedsFan - between fingers????

Thanks TP. Yes i did but boy was it stressful! Fed could easily have lost as the lack of serves back end of the second set cost him the set and possibly the match. That should be top priority in the off season.

I agree. JWT could have easily won that as he had fed all over and messed his rythm up. He could not dictate the rallies. Yes, with Jo there is always that possibility he tries to go for too much drawing errors. If not for those horrendous 2 service games he would have won. Plus he had scoreboard pressure in the third set. Fed looked more troubled this year than last year v Nadal.

Perhaps that what seperates players with flare like Jo and the greats who find a way no matter how badly things are going or how bad they play.

It was certainly tense, I couldn't believe it when the tie break slipped away after championship point came and went as well.

However, I think that in the end it will have done his confidence some good to come through a fight like that - or am I just an incurable optimist?

time please wrote:It was certainly tense, I couldn't believe it when the tie break slipped away after championship point came and went as well.

However, I think that in the end it will have done his confidence some good to come through a fight like that - or am I just an incurable optimist?

Neither could I! We have seen Fed getting into trouble recently when trying to close out matches. He always gets tight when serving it out as we saw at the USO. At least mid way thru the 3rd the serve returned.

I too thought its good he had to fight for it. I say this in hindsight and prefer straights! This type of match he has lost recently so it tested him. He found the way the in the end. It surely will build confidence. However, this type of slip up vs the others in the top 4 would be punishing. As it was Jo he got away with it.

He knows this is what has cost him - he alluded to not regretting season but if anything gave him a pang it was failing to serve out first set at RG against Rafa.

I think he has been working on this - and he's a winner basically, just like Rafa, they can lose their nerve and has others come up to challenge them we see more instances of that, but at the end of the day they have the force of character to work on that.

I don;t think Fed got tight serving it out in that second set. I believe the opposite happened, he relaxed too much and his mind went wandering.

What was interesting in his post interview is that he said he felt bad for the crowd the match was over in 2 small sets. I am not saying that he played much in his mind but with him, never know.

He relaxes too early like in that USO semi. He thinks it's over before he does. But that again is the result of the physical game. It's so exhausting out there that you mind wants it over before it is.

Tenez wrote: What was interesting in his post interview is that he said he felt bad for the crowd the match was over in 2 small sets. I am not saying that he played much in his mind but with him, never know.

Wasn't this in response to being asked whether it would be a good thing to have a b05 final at WTF? I think he said yes, because if it had been over in two sets it would be a shame for the large crowd at a year end championships, though the winning player of course would be happy for a swift win.

Or am I muddling interviews up with another occasion when he voted for a bo5 final at MC in Shanghai, but the rest of the then top 8 voted for b03.

time please wrote:

Tenez wrote: What was interesting in his post interview is that he said he felt bad for the crowd the match was over in 2 small sets. I am not saying that he played much in his mind but with him, never know.

Wasn't this in response to being asked whether it would be a good thing to have a b05 final at WTF? I think he said yes, because if it had been over in two sets it would be a shame for the large crowd at a year end championships, though the winning player of course would be happy for a swift win.

Or am I muddling interviews up with another occasion when he voted for a bo5 final at MC in Shanghai, but the rest of the then top 8 voted for b03.

You right he said that when asked best of 3/5 finals but he did refer to his serving for the match in the second set at that time...so it must have crossed his mind.

I dont believe he would like to take it down to the wire for te sake of crowd pleasing. Im sure any player would rather win comfortably than run the risk of losing a title match. I agree with Tenez. He thinks job done before the match is called. He should know by now that is never the case. At 4-1 up Nadal v JMDP in Miami, after he lost he said he had the match. Complacency and loss of focus cost him the match. Same with Fed. I still think at the USO he would not have been able to keep up.with Nadal so just as well Djoko won. Boy was that a thriller!