Australian Open 2012

With a little over 2 weeks to go until the mens draw is made, who is your early pick to win?
Interestingly on the official site their poll results are the following:

Roger 47% of the votes
Rafa 35%
Nole 11%
Andy 3%
http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/fancentre/poll/index.html

Do you agree?

Example of why most polls are useless. Most people use their hearts instead of their brains.
Any way, a bit too early for poles. Would be better to wait for the draw and see the top players path.

I went with Djokovic as I had to chose only one, but to me it is close between Djokovic, Nadal and Federer.

I agree it is too early for polls (not poles who can be early risers )

As well as seeing the AO draw, the current Abu Dhabi exo and Doha should give an indication of form & fitness.

All the poll on the AO site indicates is that Djokovic has fewer fans.

YvonneT wrote:(not poles who can be early risers )

Oooh-er Madam!

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Oooh-er Madam!

Hmm..I actually reworded that to avoid any such double-entrendre.

YvonneT wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Oooh-er Madam!

Hmm..I actually reworded that to avoid any such double-entrendre.

Be careful, Yvonne, JHM can be quite a charming Casanova.

Heart and brain says Andy


Welcome to the forum, YvonneT

Solerina wrote:Heart and brain says Andy


Welcome to the forum, YvonneT

I hope you are right Solerina. Tough to bet against Nole.

Based on past seasonal performances plus recent performance I would expect the following probability of winning the AO 2012 mens title:

1) Novak Djokovic - most probable winner (even when apparently dead on his feet he has shown he can still pull it out of the bag).
2) Rafael Nadal - next most probable (but large probabilty of "medical issue" impairing mobility).
3) Roger Federer - next most probable (would rank very close to Nadal's overall chances).
4) Andy Murray - next most probable (gets to finals but seems to lack focus and a "dependable killer weapon" when up against the top three in best of five set match play. However has shown recent signs of improvement).

Of course upcoming performance in the pre-AO tournaments may alter these probabilities / guesstimates.

I remember when I said the Wimbledon final would be between Djokovic and Nadal the Wednesday before the final (I got a lot of flack for it @ the time) and I attached a poll....most opted for Nadal....but I knew better and went with Djokovic....55% in that poll plumbed with Nadal...the rest is history!

In honestly, I think it's hard to know where Djokovic's form is right now, but going by prior performance, the top 3 are clearly the main contenders and the winners of the Aussie Open in 2010 & 2011 are my two top picks. I'd put Nadal down with them....just his performance has been erratic @ the Aussie Open over the last two years (not made it past the QF).

Nore Staat wrote:
2) Rafael Nadal - next most probable (but large probability of "medical issue" impairing mobility).

There might be FH/BH/Serving issues as well, as indicated here.

https://www.606v2.com/t20997-nadal-to-take-february-off

Y I Man wrote:With a little over 2 weeks to go until the mens draw is made, who is your early pick to win?
Interestingly on the official site their poll results are the following:

Roger 47% of the votes
Rafa 35%
Nole 11%
Andy 3%
http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/fancentre/poll/index.html

Do you agree?

No 606v2 does not agree! This is what it says (so far...)

Andy 30%
Nole 20%
Rafa 20%
Other 20%
Poor Forgotton Roger 10%

Interesting...

Haven't voted yet but after todays news don't think I'll be voting for Rafa.

Calder106 wrote:Haven't voted yet but after todays news don't think I'll be voting for Rafa.

Remember he did not do too well @Doha 2011 (the match against Lacko, for example). Wishing him speedy recovery.

As a neutral I hope Rafa is fit for Australia, I like to see the top players at the top of their game. But agree, the talk from Rafa's camp about his shoulder injury isn't good news ahead of Australia.

hawkeye wrote:

Y I Man wrote:With a little over 2 weeks to go until the mens draw is made, who is your early pick to win?
Interestingly on the official site their poll results are the following:

Roger 47% of the votes
Rafa 35%
Nole 11%
Andy 3%
http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/fancentre/poll/index.html

Do you agree?

No 606v2 does not agree! This is what it says (so far...)

Andy 30%
Nole 20%
Rafa 20%
Other 20%
Poor Forgotton Roger 10%

Interesting...

hawkeye, you speak too soon, the poll has only been up 5 hours or so and Fed is now joint in the lead with Murray (each with 25%).

As of now....

Federer 1456/3078 (47.3%)
Nadal 1080/3078 (35.1%)
Djokovic 362/3078 (11.8%)
Murray 100/3078 (3.3%)
Other 80/3078 (2.6%).

But polls do not win slams or appoint DC coaches... Captains.

PS: This is from http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/fancentre/poll/index.html

I suppose we have to take the news from Rafaels camp seriously which means Rafael's probability of repeating his AO 2009 triumph has decreased - so my latest probability guesstimates are:

1) Novak Djokovic - most probable winner (even when apparently dead on his feet he has shown he can still pull it out of the bag).
2) Roger Federer - next most probable (but tends nowadays to wander mentally during a match dropping a set or two. It's no longer a surprise if he loses in a QF or SF).
3) Andy Murray - next most probable (gets to finals but seems to lack focus and a "dependable killer weapon" when up against the top three in best of five set match play. However has shown recent signs of improvement).
4) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - next most probable maybe (seems to be coming into form - has made one previous Grand Slam final).
5) Rafael Nadal - next most probable (news from camp says he is carrying a shoulder problem. Can't really ever rule him out but "injury" is becoming a recurring theme for Nadal at the start of the season, making only the QFs in the past two Australian Opens).

I have gone for Federer. I think at the moment he is the man with the form. Nadal is struggling with niggles and I cannot see him going full throttle in Melbourne if he is planning to take February off. If he is to perform at maximum capacity, I would think it would be logical for him to skip the Australian Open altogether and prepare to start on Clay where he could build form from the right from the off.

Djokovic the defending champion was a bit sluggish towards the end of the season after Wimbledon. He was fortunate at the US Open due to a lot of the players actually looking very tired and rugged.

Murray, the best slamless player outside the big 3 and 2 time finalist. It will be a tall order for him to follow from his 2011 season. I think the pressure will intense in 2012 to improve and better those results.

An outside bet?

Tsonga and Del Potro. Tsonga being a previous finalist and certainly the form man behind Federer and Murray. Del Potro is getting back to something like his best. A former US Open champion. Could lay a big marker down in Melbourne.

luciusmann wrote:

hawkeye wrote:

Y I Man wrote:With a little over 2 weeks to go until the mens draw is made, who is your early pick to win?
Interestingly on the official site their poll results are the following:

Roger 47% of the votes
Rafa 35%
Nole 11%
Andy 3%
http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/fancentre/poll/index.html

Do you agree?

No 606v2 does not agree! This is what it says (so far...)

Andy 30%
Nole 20%
Rafa 20%
Other 20%
Poor Forgotton Roger 10%

Interesting...

hawkeye, you speak too soon, the poll has only been up 5 hours or so and Fed is now joint in the lead with Murray (each with 25%).

I take it all back. I was wrong to speak too soon. Federer is now in the lead, followed by Murray and "other". Poor Djokovic and Nadal are now trailing...

hawkeye wrote:I take it all back. I was wrong to speak too soon. Federer is now in the lead, followed by Murray and "other". Poor Djokovic and Nadal are now trailing...

Let that not discourage you too much, after all it is just a poll with 14 votes, so far.

legendkillar wrote:I have gone for Federer. I think at the moment he is the man with the form. Nadal is struggling with niggles and I cannot see him going full throttle in Melbourne if he is planning to take February off. If he is to perform at maximum capacity, I would think it would be logical for him to skip the Australian Open altogether and prepare to start on Clay where he could build form from the right from the off.

I have been thinking the same re Nadal legend. Hard to be at his best if he is not fully fit or already planning a rest, and there is little point in playing the AO with an injury. I am still hoping that it perhaps is not that serious and he'll be fine in time for Melbourne.

Will see in Abu Dhabi and Doha whether Nadal is 100%

Might have been inclined to go for Nadal but it appears he MAY not be fully fit. Have gone for Djoko. After that, would go for Fed. Many reckoned that as Fed finished 2010 so strongly he was a shoo-in for the A0 11 but it didn't work out that way, so I'm not holding my breath after his - admittedly splendid - end to the 2011 season.
Having said that , I think Fed has slightly more chance in the 2012 AO than in 2011, mainly cos you don't quite know how 100% Rafa and also Djoko are gonna be.
Can't see a winner from outside the top four. Used to be a time when someone "strange " would make a GS final but the outsiders are not even making many GS SFs now.

http://www1.skysports.com/tennis/news/20876/7400319/Nadal-plans-February-break
Nadal says he is fit now; he says shoulder is feeling much better.

sirfredperry wrote: Used to be a time when someone "strange " would make a GS final

2003-2007

The man with the highest percentage of votes has lost 6-1 6-2 to Djokovic today. Poor display.

If Nadal reaches his previous levels then I'm not sure who can stop him other than possibly Djokovic.

amritia3ee wrote:The man with the highest percentage of votes has lost ...

But only 0.0000001 % of the worlds population voted for him.

You might want to add it wasn't in a competitive match but in an exhibition match where the sole motivation was a cheque for $250, 000. That's really going to get a multiple grand slam champion going!

Novak Djokovic

Probably Nole. If not Andy. Simply because when on form, I think these two are the best hard court players

banbrotam wrote:Probably Nole. If not Andy. Simply because when on form, I think these two are the best hard court players

What?

Andy, when on form is a better HC player than Roger?

Give me a break buddy. Andy - zero slams, destroyed twice by Roger in HC slam finals - is pidgeon feed for Roger if the latter plays his best tennis on a HC. He has nothing to negate Roger's offense; the match would always be on Roger's racket, with the proviso, of course, that both are playing at their best. Roger is the greatest HC player of the open era and that's not even debateable.

As for OZ 2012, Novak is the clear favourite.

emancipator wrote: Roger is the greatest HC player of the open era and that's not even debateable.

Yh but it is debatable, isn't it?

amritia3ee wrote:

emancipator wrote: Roger is the greatest HC player of the open era and that's not even debateable.

Yh but it is debatable, isn't it?

Clink, clink

Some stats for the above debate.

On Hard

Federer - 492-102 Titles won - 48
Djokovic - 247-65 Titles won - 20
Murray - 228-66 Titles won - 18
Nadal - 260-82 Titles won - 11

As it is debatable about who is the greatest, there are the stats. Debate away.

legendkiller

The problem with all these hard court tournaments is that they are just not as historic as some of the tournaments played on clay and grass. Some players prefer to focus on tournaments that they see as more prestigious. Of course to fill up their trophy cabinet, show their versatility, and quiet their critics they may see it fitting to pick up the odd hard court slam. In fact it might be seen as a little challenge to get a couple each of the hard court slams... Who knows?

Hawkeye,

2 posters were 'debating' the HC credentials of top players. There are the cold facts of the current top 4. When you look at the victories and titles won this is food for thought. I am not trying to discredit any players what so ever. The stats clearly favour Federer, though when you look at Djokovic, Murray, Nadal it is surprising close given how many years Nadal has been on tour. Historic value counts for nothing when stats are produced.

legendkiller

Sorry if I interupted another debate. I didn't realise...

I was arguing that statistical values can count for nothing as far as history goes.

Nadal is really past the stage of needing to have a large quantity of hard court titles in his resume to prove his ability. However a few more hard court slam titles would look quite good on his CV. IMO he is more likely to get them than not (of course as long as he remains healthy).

As for Federer of course the stats favour him... everything does. He is just great!

With Federer's injury, Novak must be super favorite to win.

Djokovic favourite, Nadal 2nd favourite, Federer 3rd, Murray 4th..