PGA Tour: Kapalua etc etc: Notes from the Ballwasher

First topic message reminder :

Happy New Year is out the window over here as rhetoric emanating from Iowa will attest, so let's use these Notes to stop looking in the proverbial "rear-view mirror" and ahead to this week and this year:

1).A beleagured "Hyundai Tournament of Champions" gets underway this week, on FRIDAY! Only 28 of the 39 eligible players will be teeing it up but at least Freddie Jacobson, Dustin Johnson, and Brandt Snedeker will get paid (about $50K apiece) as they are no-shows for medical reasons.

2).Those not playing this week miss a golden opportunity to notch up a couple of quick starts on the PGA Tour, not important to most Americans of course but crucial to those such as Scott and Schwartzel, Rory and Rose who ply their trade on multiple Tours and could struggle to fit in the minimum 15 events. They are also missing the Plantation Course at Kapalua, a Coore/Crenshaw masterpiece which offers glorious (mostly Pacific Ocean)views from almost every hole.

3).But let's use these Notes to assess the chances of Europeans on the PGA Tour this year, as categorised by the FedEx Play-Off cut offs, top 30, 70, 100, 125 etc plus the conditional status accorded to the money list top 150. A note of caution which may be pervasive in these comments: I see this year as being a crucial one for our favourite Europeans on the PGA Tour: They're not getting any younger, only Rory McIlroy younger than Martin Laird's 29 years, most of the rest now well into their mid-thirties. And: What is the motivation for those playing both Tours? Are they committed or are they just playing follow the leader? That won't work against a re-focussed Woods and the Young Americans.

4).Top Thirty (Tour Championship):
~Donald: Luke Donald has managed his schedule superbly, but am convinced that one of the secrets to his 2011 success is the almost 3-month break he took prior to the season. I would be alarmed that he's playing in the Middle East and would suggest he'll pay for that. No Majors for Luke but can see a Players win and possibly a lesser event (Heritage?). Consistent as always.

~Westwood: Big year for Lee and I think he'll go balls out to make it the best it can be. Not sure about big wins but a boatload of top finishes in his future. US spotlight on McIlroy and the Fowler/Simpson generation of Americans will only help his low-key personality.

~Casey: Struggling with fitness until the end of the year and not fully exempt, he is nevertheless in all the Majors and WGC's and there may be a chip on his shoulder. But he needs some big finishes, preferably a win, early. WGC MatchPlay?

~Garcia: Good rebuilding year in 2011 for Sergio and still relatively under the radar. Took a nice winter break and will flourish in 2012.

~Karlsson: Now or never for the big Swede. Fit and two years of acclimation under his belt, I expect a win (Charlotte or Memphis maybe?). Very consistent in Majors.

5).BMW: 31 - 70:
~McIlroy: Rory is in for a tough year as the American press will be building up a Tiger rivalry for him. Is he mature enough to handle it? Signs not good in my eyes; he should be in Hawaii this week and his absence begs the Wozza question. Will his distractions get the better of him or will they make him stronger? Expect a win on one of the parkland courses he favours (Augusta, Memorial or Q.Hollow), but also inconsistency and missed cuts. He got knackered last time around and his recent schedule suggests he hasn't learned much. One of the best young sportsmen from the British Isles in the past sixty years, but will he have the mental fortitude to match? Jury out, but he's very young for the expectations heaped upon him. Patience!

~Poulter, McDowell: Disapppointing 2011's for both, and they'll each need a good start to get their years on track. Reports that Poults will miss time as he welcomes a baby-Gooner and he'll likely struggle to cram events in (as he did last year) as a result. Expect both to do well in Florida, but neither long/accurate enough to prosper on the courses the Tour takes in later in the year. Tears for at least one come Ryder Cup time.

~Jacobson, Rose: May have placed one or both higher but each kicks off the season on the bench, Freddie nursing ligament damage to his thumb, Justin changing nappies. My comments about Rose missing "Hawaii" were regrettably inappropriate, but the fact remains that he made a mess of his schedule when little Leo reared his head three yrs ago and getting his year off to a slow start won't suit him. No Major top tens since the 2008 PGA. Caution for Freddie Jac, as it's not clear how bad his thumb injury is. What we DO know is that thumb injuries derailed Anthony Kim's career. Memo to Fred: Get fully healthy first, then wait another month before returning.

~Laird: Underrated, understated, just as he seems to like it. Hopefuly he'll get off to a rousing start this week in Kapalua. Two wins and two play-off losses the past 2 1/2 years suggest he'll contend again in 2012, but much will depend on that long putter of his.


6).Deutsche Bank: 71 - 100:
~Davis: Time Brian Davis won, but no top fives last year and he doesn't usually get going until the "Florida Swing", even though next week's visit to Waialae CC should suit him. Possible threat at shorter courses, Harbour Town, Travelers, Colonial, Reno.

~Pettersson: Poor year after contending at Kapalua but seems to rebound just as we count him out.

7).Barclays: 101 - 125:
~Harrington, Stenson: Time for the two biggest wildcards. We all know they could turn the form book upside down at any moment. Either or both could easily bounce back to win one of the big tournaments, but they're not getting any younger and, if last year is anything to go by, neither is getting any better. Would like to see Padraig play a full California schedule, Pebble Beach and Riviera at least.

8).Conditional Status for 2013: 126 - 150:
~Blixt, Knox: The young Swede and the young Scot will both want to get off to a good start whilst their post-Nationwide status is strong. Knox made his 2011 season with a high finish in the Bay Area and hopefully he'll reprise that, whereas Blixt played well towards year's end. Definitely both ones to watch and would be no surprise to see either in the FedEx play-offs.

9).The rest: 151+:
~Chopra, Owen: Certifiable journeymen. Early tournaments will tell their tale, especially Owen who's played so well at Pebble in the past and endured that historic close shave at Bay Hill. Chopra is capable of going as low as anyone on Tour, just not for two consecutive rounds and his driver will ensure he goes back to Q-School.

~Cejka, Johnson: Limited status for both. Would think Cejka is capable of bouncing back eventually, but Richard S just doesn't hit it far enough. Would be good to see both playing some events in Europe.

~Christian: One of the oldest "rookies" on Tour for many years the quiet man from Surrey will surely enjoy the experience even if his year concludes back at Q-School. Any six-figure cheques will be a very pleasant surprise but a great sense of humour and a fun interview. TV in his future?

~Olazabal, Parnevik: Still have some status on Medical Exemptions. Wish them good health but any tournament success this side of the Champions Tour will be a very pleasant surprise.

10).Remember: There'll be a Friday start to Kapalua and a Monday finish. Set your British Isles alarm clocks for an early wake-up call to see how the hotshot Americans, Simpson, Bradley, Haas follow up their 2011 seasons, to see if Stricker is fit, whether Lucas Glover still has his beard (no top tens since his May win in Charlotte), Rory Sabbatini can win after two second place finishes or Martin Laird can belatedly celebrate Hogmanay. Happy New Year indeed.

Amazing they'd rather show a rubbish quick review of the tournament rather than the second last group finishing their round.

monty junior wrote:Amazing they'd rather show a rubbish quick review of the tournament rather than the second last group finishing their round.

At the same time as talking about Byrd having to make a three to have a chance, Laird is 45 yards away, on the same score and with a pitch for a three. Yet they don't show it....

Anyway, Stricker's second down safely and that's the game. Byrd in a bit of trouble, par for him would give Laird a nice solo second to start the year, and a much-needed OWGR boost. (And a yahoo fantasy 1-2 for me to start the year).

Hope they managed to patch it up Kwini. Didnt miss much after the initial rally by the chasers petered out. Stricker always looked in control really, even when not playing particularly well.

Laird pulled it together after a sloppy turn where you could see he was getting angry with himself. And, although the commentators said this of Simpson, if he his putting had been a smidge better he would have walked this.

I think Finchem gives them instructions not to show foreign players unless absolutely necessary, Rory possibly an exception.
"Most of the players that the fans are interested in, the young players coming up, are here."
That's Finchem yesterday.
McIlroy, Donald, Scott, Kaymer, Schwartzel, Rose - he doesn't care about them. And he couldn't give a toss about Laird either - he's just trying to build the built in America brand. Screw him. Surprised he didn't give Fowler an exemption.
Very pleased that Laird finished ahead of Simpson then, hopefully finish ahead of Byrd also.

Cheers sandy, All stitched up, no digit missing.

Good result though for Laird and that'll help him in his qualifying for the two "Opens". Apparently he's taking time off in the summer to concentrate on European tournaments. That would be very positive I think.

Agreed Sandy, Martin made 7 bogeys and a double but still finished second.

Well done to Steve Stricker, had everything under control most of the time and never really looked like losing his lead.

$650K for Martin Laird; not bad for finishing ahead of 25 golfers, at least some of whom treated the whole enterprise as an exhibition.

Is Sepp Blatter, sorry Finchem voted in or is it a dictatorship?
I think that's why I prefer the European Tour, its got more credibility, played in more diverse locations, less corruption, better coverage, takes itself less seriously and the players appear to actually enjoy themselves. I'd rather be part of that. Even if there is more money on the PGA.

More late nights for any GB&I Sony Open coverage from Hawaii this week, the live action starting midnight GMT, Thursday thru Sunday - no Monday malarkey this week, and none now until September and the Deutsche Bank tournament.

Quick countdown of Europe's entries:
GB: Christian and Knox (first PGA Tour starts for both and good luck to them), Davis, Owen

Sweden: Blixt, Chopra, Parnevik, Pettersson

I dont get why players who play the Hyandai would then fly home and not play the second event?

For an extra (is that the right term) week in hawaii you tick of another event.

A lot of the Kapalua field will be missing though, Mac.
Big surprise to me is Baddeley not playing - lost in a play-off there about ten years ago.
Martin Laird's rationale is this:
"(Waialae CC) unfortunately is not one that suits my game very well. I like to hit cuts pretty much 95% of the time with my driver and fairway woods, and that golfcourse sets up perfectly for guys who hit draws." etc, etc.

I'd say fair enough, better to prepare for a tournament he feels is better suited for him and he'll be in the desert next week at the Humana/Bob Hope, then more desert storming in Phoenix.

Any reason to stay in Hawaii in January seems reasonable to me! Spent a week there camping and kayaking the Na Pali coast. Jaw dropping beauty and weather to boot.

Wonderful outing for Laird, and Simpson certainly not looking like a one-hit (or year) wonder. But at the end of the day, big hats off to cheese head Stricker.

Saw that interview with Laird, looks like a solid schedule he's made himself, though might need a few weeks off post-Masters

Ned,
This schedule should suit Laird's strengths nicely.
A break after The Masters followed by Quail Hollow (not sure about that), The Players. Then Wentworth!

Kwini

I meant those who play Kapalua mainly, laird for example should surely be teeing it up this week to build on a great first week. And as shotrock says, why not stay at this time of year.

Mac,
What part of Laird's comments that I quoted did you disagree with?

He also said:
"There's a lot of right-to-left doglegs, and for me it just doesn't set up well."

As for Shotrock's comment, which we can all relate to, especially as I watch the snow come down, Laird added:
"which is unfortunate because it's a nice week to spend in Hawaii."

Must admit, I've spent weeks and months at a time at work locations which, if on vacation, seem like paradise. But I could never wait to get home to the economically desolate Mohawk Vally. As for Laird, Scottsdale's not a bad compensation, especially when he knows he'll be on the road for six of the next nine weeks anyway.

For the guys who will struggle to get their 15 events in, that's another issue entirely, but it doesn't apply here to Laird, or anyone else at Kapalua.

I would imagine perceptions of whether his game suits his game are all in his head, or anyway else making those sort of comments. If you are playing well, which he is, take advantage of it and rack up points no matter what course it is.

Marathon vs Sprint.

Kwin/Mac - Interestingly (to me at least!) I will be in both the Mohawk Valley and Scottsdale within the next 3 weeks. Plan to catch some of the Waste Management Open. A client has a "suite" on the 16th - perhaps the only PGA event where there's enough silicone in the crowd to raise the Titanic.

(Kwin - If travels take you to Old Forge/Inlet ... highly recommend this place ... http://reddogtavern.com/)

Shotrock

We are currently going through a silicon crisis here in the UK, something to do with dodgy frenchmen and breasts.

Thanks Sr, Will do.

Worth keeping in mind that these guys have had a week of fun in Hawaii already. I would think that for most of them it's a choice between another week in Hawaii, a week's break at home, and then hitting the road; or taking the week's break this week and kicking off as soon as the continental tour gets going. Can't see that many going straight from Waialae to the Bob Hope if I'm honest, so for those who prefer their chances in California, like Laird, it makes sense to skip this week.

A 44-year old golfer with 33 million USD in career earnings, never won a major. Never even favoured to win a major. No, not Monty.

Did I say career earnings? That was just career PGA earnings, not counting those nickels and dimes earned in those worthless majors.

Steve Stricker here, Leff.

kwinigolfer wrote:Steve Stricker here, Leff.

Happy New Year, Kwini.

Life is good in the PGA Tour, if you keep winning one or two tournaments per year; isn't it?

Do you think Stricker will someday win a major when nobody is expecting him..like Cink did?

Happy New Year Leff,
Life IS good on Tour!

First off, I never begrudge Stricker anything that comes his way. Played a tournament or two in the inaugural year of the Hogan (Nationwide) Tour and still going strong!
No-one at the top these days has "paid his dues" more than him and I never tire of watching his quiet excellence.

I reckon he'll have a real shot at the US Open this year at Olympic Club, possibly next year's PGA at Oak Hill.
Never like him for The Masters or The Open and only a few US Major courses will suit him. Better player than Cink ever was though in my book.

Kwin - Fully agree with that - all around good man! Given his ranking and resume I suppose he should be considered a threat for a major, but he never seems to be at the top of anyone's list. Who knows, he could just sneak one in.

One thing is certain, nobody is surprised whenever Stricker wins regardless the strength of the field. Don't see why he couldn't win at least one or two majors before his time is up.

Stricker looks a bit like Charlton Heston.

super_realist wrote:Stricker looks a bit like Charlton Heston.

Damn. I thought I recognized him in that chariot scene. Loved the part where he grabs the 3 iron from the bad guy driving the chariot with the cheating spiked hub caps and beats the guy down. Still remains one of the great scenes in filmdom history.

Reminds me of Stephen Boyd who died at 45 but looked about 65 when playing in The Squeeze with one of my early crushes, Carol White.
And Carol White also looked dreadful in that, washed out presumably from the dreaded triple play of drugs and drink and being used and abused, according to Wiki, by guys like Burton, Oliver Reed and Sinatra.
She'd've been just fine if she'd found me.

Shotrock wrote:Kwin/Mac - Interestingly (to me at least!) I will be in both the Mohawk Valley and Scottsdale within the next 3 weeks. Plan to catch some of the Waste Management Open. A client has a "suite" on the 16th - perhaps the only PGA event where there's enough silicone in the crowd to raise the Titanic.

(Kwin - If travels take you to Old Forge/Inlet ... highly recommend this place ... http://reddogtavern.com/)

The Waste Management Open .... Real classy name for an event! Main sponsor - Tony Soprano.

In other breaking news from BBC Sport:

"1725 GOLF: PGA Tour commissioner Tim Finchem has received a four-year contract extension, keeping him in charge of golf's biggest tour until 2016."

Hope that news doesn't send any posters over the edge.

Will it be golf's biggest tour in 2016?

Shotrock,
Given the TV contract they have, you can bet that the PGA Tour will be stronger than ever in 2016.
And I'm sure you would agree!!??!!

Chubby says watch out for Asia. But then again, he probably didn't see his crown jewel defecting either.

"Another thing the Americans have to understand is that in 10 years time the Asian circuit is going to be bigger than the PGA Tour. It's a different world now."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/jul/11/rory-mcilroy-andrew-chubby-chandler

(Gotta love his pompous "Americans have to understand ..." nonsense)

Chandler's clearly a good agent, but he does seen to be a bit susceptible to hype. Anywhere which has two rival tours, both of which are struggling for tournaments because they spend more time fighting each other than concentrating on their own business, will be doing well to be the best in the world ten years later.

Asia need their players to develop on the World stage for their Tour to gain stature.
Only KJ Choi, K-t Kim and Sang-moon Bae in the owgr Top forty. The careers of Ishikawa and YE Yang have rather stalled.

But more young Koreans on Tour this year so we'll see if they're capable of anything more than a promising cameo.

It's been more than thirty years now since Aoki, Nakajima and the Ozakis promised to make Japan a force in world golf but, Katayama and Maryuama aside, there's been more promise since then than substance.

And Chubby also needs to realise that most Americans and American golfers won't give a monkey's what's going on 10,000 miles away, whatever Jon Huntsman says. And, as far as golf is concerned, why should they? Chubby's blowing smoke.

Ned

Interesting article and interesting to get an insight into Chubby's world last summer. Looks like Rory's departure was a surprise. The reporter speculated Rory could beome a billionaire so Chubby's cut would have been in the millions if he'd stayed.

At the end of the article, when pushed for a tip for the 2011 Open he picked the right man though. Although he also said a windy week would suit Rory.