PGA Tour: European Golfers' "Tour" Prospects For 2013: Notes from the Ballwasher

1).Tiger got his first win of the year under his belt, and now Phil has done the same. But, of course, they didn't have the cream of the 23-strong European golfing crop to deal with. Most of the lesser lights have been playing, though, and the rest will be here for Riviera and/or the MatchPlay so time to look at their prospects for the season ahead.
Remember, this is a short year - Ross Fisher for example, to name a Q-School grad who is not in any Majors, WGC's and most likely invitationals, only has a maximum of about 19 starts remaining before the FedEx Play-Off season begins, Karlsson in the same boat.
My idea of their prospects is categorised by FedEx rank: 1-30, 31-70, 71-100, 101-125, 126-200.
I am also offering no predictions for players with the most tenuous status (Casey, Cejka, Chopra, Christian, Johnson, Knox, Olazabal and Parnevik).

2).1-30:
~McIlroy: Sky's the limit, though quite prepared to believe his new clubs and ball will take some getting used to. Not as optimistic about Majors unless he can be firing on all cylinders by The Masters - don't fancy him for the rest of them.

~Donald: Another steady season, a low-key win somewhere like Hilton Head and must have a good shout at Merion. Starting his year at Riviera, a course which suits him.

~Rose: Good year in prospect for Justin and another who'll be in the Merion mix, possibly Oak Hill too.

~McDowell: A second breakthrough year for McDowell? Strange that he won't play the West Coast given his success there, but fancy him to win at least once and contend throughout the Majors.

~Harrington: Looked pretty solid in Phoenix, was driving it a mile, and I like his chances of following that up with strong finishes at Pebble Beach and Riviera. Another I fancy to play well at all the Majors - it'll be nice to see him back, and deservedly gets a very good press in America!

3).31-70:
~Pettersson: Best of the rest! Another strong season for Sweden's fattest (until Sjoholm turns up) but can't see him winning and will need strong play-off performances to reach the Tour Championship.

~Westwood: Hope I'm wrong, but Lee needs to absolutely stripe it to compensate for the short game deficiencies that seem to have crept into his head as well as his golfbag. Good to see him playing at Pebble, but not sure it's the type of place for him to shine.

~Hanson: Probably underrating him here, his performances in the US have improved steadily for the past few years and, at 35, should be in position to graduate from contender to winner. Not sure where though.

~Garcia: Looked a world-beater at Greensboro and pretty good at the Barclays before disappearing again. Could win anywhere except perhaps Augusta, but just as easily sulk his way through the season - would think his first two events (Riviera and MatchPlay) will be revealing as to form and fitness (how's that shoulder?).

~Poulter: Needs to win as he just doesn't get enough high finishes to score consistent gobs of FedEx points - best chances at MatchPlay and Hartford. Currently owns the longest streak (16) of consecutive cuts made, and look forward to a resumption of twittering warfare with Miller.

~Blixt: Missed two months of last year but showed how good he can be at Las Vegas and the Fry's. As good a short game as there is on Tour and will accumulate plenty of high finishes even if he doesn't win. Only in the PGA (where he'll struggle) and The Players (where he could flourish) among the big events.

4).71-100:
~Kaymer: Yet to be convinced that joining the PGA Tour is a good move for Martin. Obviously has a big game but has yet to score a Top Ten (no, really!) in a regular Tour event and I can see him struggling if he doesn't make an early impact - if he settles more quickly than I expect, could have a good August at Bridgestone and Oak Hill.

~Laird: Lost his way last year and hasn't scored a top ten since runnering up at The Players, only one Top 25 in that time. We know he has the game, but does he have the ambition? Not in any WGC's or Majors. Has no exemption safety net so needs to pull his socks up.

~Jacobson: Freddie seems to fiddle his way to some good finishes while looking worse doing it than almost anyone on Tour. No Majors or WGC's to look forward to and this is the final year of his winners' exemption, so needs to get his act together.

5).101-125:
~Stenson: Much better form over the past six months, but not on the PGA Tour. Will doubtless look to the WGC MatchPlay for a good result to get his year going - just doesn't seem to care for the stick-to-it-iveness needed for the grind of the Tour; if he follows his schedule of previous years will find he runs out of tournaments unless he enjoys a good FedEx Play-Off run. Currently #52 in the owgr, but not in any Majors yet.

~Colsaerts: His year could be anything. Can see a handful of good results and a dozen missed cuts.

~Lingmerth: Halfway towards keeping his card after that second-place finish at "Humana". The trick will be repeating it!

~Davis: In a terrible trot of form - only four made cuts since June, and one could see Davis falling foul of the short season unless he gets his act together soon. Another with new clubs. Will depend on his usual happy hunting grounds such as Hilton Head, Players, Colonial, Hartford.

6).125-200:
~Owen: Fine year in 2012 but now needs to repeat. Has made 15%+ of his career Tour earnings at Pebble Beach so this is a big week for him! By Tour standards a terrible putter but what a player you'd have if you could combine Owen's "ball-striking" with Davis's putter.

~Lynn: Very sceptical of David Lynn's chances of prospering in the US. Has earned the advantage of playing a couple of WGC's and three Majors, but a disappointing start to his year and surprised that neither Lynn nor Fisher are playing Pebble - appears to me the type that will do better on courses where par has value, unlike Phoenix for instance.

~Fisher: Similar to Lynn except he's not in any Majors, WGC's or, most likely, any invitationals. It's going to be a tough year and fewer events left than he might have expected. Ridiculous that he chose Phoenix over Pebble Beach.

~Karlsson: Saved his best form last year for Q-School, but Back To Go for Robbie and one needs convincing that he's overcome whatever ailed him. Hope I'm wrong but it's almost 18 months since his last top ten and will have the same trouble as Fish in getting into enough tournaments. Fingers crossed for this week though.

~Norlander: One cut made in his first three events, and I'd reckon his season will be all about making cuts and grinding out decent finishes.

7).72 holes of Phil being Phil in Phoenix, mostly sublime but a hint of the ridiculous to maintain interest.
Eleven Europeans had Thursday tee-times, only Harrington and Pettersson survived to play the weekend. There's a message there somewhere.

8).Looking forward to the action this week on the Monterey Peninsula, a gorgeous place to go with or without golf clubs. The boys will be competing on three of the four shortest courses the Tour sees during the year, but par will be at a greater premium than last week and I'd imagine that might suit the European contingent a little better. Harrington plays well here, as does Greg Owen (3 top tens), and Westwood makes his seasonal debut.

9).The field is of uneven quality, many top players including multiple winners Mickelson and Dustin Johnson, but just about every journeyman who ever held a Tour card will pad the field out. If Mickelson plays as he did last year here (remember his demolition of Woods?) or as well as he did last week (another demolition job), he'll win going away, but there's still room for others to gain a good result. Harrington tops my list (good e.w. value at 25/1), but Baddeley, Tim Clark, Watney, Mahan and Marino, as well as the obvious Dustin, all meet the horses for courses criteria.

10).Sorry to read last week's obits for the great sports writer, Frank Keating, but rewarded with some lovely tributes. After reading a couple of observations that he "hated the whole fiasco" of the 1996 Olympics which sapped his enthusiasm for the soul of sport, it's worth remembering who was the prime mover behind that commercial extravaganza: Ryo's mate Billy Payne of course!


PS: Best wishes and fingers crossed for Lindsey Vonn. A bit of a stretch for a golf column but somehow seems relevant.

Cheers Kwini,

Have to agree more or less entirely with your Euro predictions, and especially the comment about scheduling. Completely ridiculous that so many guys playing for 2014 status have taken this week off, at possibly the most Euro-esque regular season event the schedule has. Even more so when many of those same guys were or will be at Phoenix/Torrey/Riviera etc, standard-issue PGAT tracks that require a game with experience of US golf. Dunno who's advising the likes of Fisher and Lynn, but if the idea is to treat this as a career move rather than a year-long jolly, I could do a better job.


Anyone ideas on a couple of rumours flying round Twitter? Firstly suggestion that Alan Shipnuck of Sports Illustrated (average golf writer at best in my view, but that's not the point), will not be welcome at Augusta this year, on pain of dea... a rude letter from Payne. And secondly, some murky suggestions about Beljan of "I think I'm dying mid-round" fame/notoriety, apparently sacking the caddie who more or less carried him round that week, in less than pleasant circumstances at Phoenix.

Hi Ned, Cheers,
Rumours?
Haven't heard either. I also don't much care for Shipnuck, wonder what he'd've done to incur Payne's wrath. And heard nothing about Beljan though he sounds a guy with strange views and perhaps some demons.

Wonderful write up Kwin, and I think the American domination of the tour in 2013 will be put to a stop soon, perhaps with some of those names you mention. A few additional thoughts:

Augusta - This, the weakest of all majors, could easily tip to Rory. Half (maybe 2/3s even) of the field is probably too intimidated to win here. Tough place to win your first major unless you have the short memory of youth. Rory's got unfinished business here.

Merion - If Donald keeps his driver in play, he could be lethal. Short game mastery a must.

Oak Hill - Like the call with Rose, who took a similarly stout Donald Ross course (Aronimink) to its knees a few years ago. Should suit his style of play - long, somewhat forgiving.

I also don' think (hope) we've see the last of Sergio. Just too much talent there.

Kwini-I am convinced that Lee has lost a few yards. Regularly out driven last week by Jaidee, Wood and Rock?

Cheers kwini.
European prospects depend on whether Overton is playing though.

Thanks Chaps,
Didn't Westwood try out a new driver last week; maybe had two hands on the wheel a bit? If he has really lost distance, he's given up his biggest advantage - the confidence to use the extra gear he's always had knowing the ball will most likely still go straight.


Golf Channel is reporting that Vijay and Commish Finchem have a Pebble Beach rendezvous Wednesday, presumably about DeerAntlerGate. Won't be the easiest meeting either has ever had.

Kwini

Can you explain to me why there is any other outcome than a ban for VJ? I just dont get why golf would fail to follow its own doping code no matter what has gone before after the very public outcry against cycling and lance armstrong. Who cares if calc or anybody else got away with it in the past, the whole point of tackling doping in sport is that we continually do things in a better way.

Mac,
I don't have much of an opinion on the subject other than the Tour needs to show some consistency.
The thing that would most concern me is that, for whatever reason, the Tour has been unsuccessful in conveying what's legal, what's not. Their drug trests don't test blood, which is pretty bloody stupid.
I'd say they have to suspend Veej, but I'd also say the way they came after Doug Barron was spiteful.
Idiots like Mark O'Meara jumping on the hang-'em-high bandwagon is not helpful.

The Tour would be in a stronger position if it wasn't so secretive about disciplinary action. And stronger still if it had shown that it had fully investigated Dr. Anthony Galea's relationship with any Tour member.

I suspect they are still in the "golf is unique and cannot be impacted by drugs" mode, and the precedent of whispering in some (favoured) ears to say stop now. However stupid the action Veej has to pay for the whole system to have any credibility.

kwinigolfer wrote:..The Tour would be in a stronger position if it wasn't so secretive about disciplinary action. And stronger still if it had shown that it had fully investigated Dr. Anthony Galea's relationship with any Tour member.

I'm not sure about this last point - I don't think it's the Tour's business to investigate players outside of golf. They can be best of mates with the biggest drug dealer in the world as long as they don't take the stuff. So declare a list of banned substances, test effectively and sanction proportionately. They seem to want to make this harder than it needs to be.

Kwini - nice reference to Keating btw. As you say wonderful tributes. "You don't know what you have till its gone!"

Never been a lover of the US tv coverage, and though I have tried this year with standard formula of recording and watching with rc ffwd through ads and drivel have to say I am close to giving up. Either it is getting worse, or my tolerance is reducing. Sky with Baron Critchley and I'm an expert don't you know Murray, is bad enough but!!!

Bob the Job, I get your point but to me half the problem is that the drugs cheats are ahead of the testers so the only way that they seem to get caught is by associations with characters with dubious pasts. I would agree more if golf did more to test players but the current testing regime seems pretty lax.

If you want a take on this have a read about Usain Bolt and his coach/chemist:
http://www.muscleweek.com/is-usain-bolt-on-steroids

I don't see that golf has a big drug problem though. I guess that the most that we will see is players taking stuff to help them recover quicker (Tiger/Galea allegations) or something like beta blockers to calm nerves.

Bob,
Just trying to make the point that our PGA Tour friends do themselves a disservice when it comes to their policy not to publish details of disciplinary action - especially in the banned substance arena they can be hoist by their own petard.

US TV coverage IS getting worse!! Notah Begay is having a tough time stepping in to Dottie Pepper's knickers, emblazoned with stars and stripes though they were. These guys are just getting older and feel increasigly out of touch with the players they're covering. Jacobsen is terrible for NBC and we'll have the Nantz crew back for the next two weekends - still love the work of Kostis and Maltbie though.

Kwini - I think we're actually in violent agreement in that the PGA Tour seem to be a bit shambolic when it comes to how they handle this. If they sorted out a proper policy and execution plan, then publishing details would become more of a moot point - mainly because there would be general confidence that they are on top of it. The current issue is that there is no confidence they have their house in order, and thus the golf followers need to see the detail and the Tour need to hide it.

Bob!

Interesting that some of the players also feel there should be more transparency . . . .


I should also have noted that the Champions Tour stages its first full-field event of the year, in Boca Raton, Florida.
Messrs Chapman, Lyle and Mouland all in action.

This was the occasion of my favourite shot (outside the Ryder Cup of course) of last year. Have a butcher's at #1 on the video of top ten Champers Tour shots of last year:

http://www.pgatour.com/video/2012/11/19/top-10--shots-from-the-2012-champions-tour-season.html

Always think a long hole out is a fluke, but nothing flukey about all the skills and imagination necessary for Pavin here. Doesn't show it, but he makes the putt and wins the event in a play-off.

Westwood (partnering his Dad?) paired with Vijay this week - imagine there'll be plenty of unwanted attention if Veej's plans are not put on hold by Finchem tonight.

But perhaps they'll be following the foursome two groups behind them as Andres Gonzales (he of the extraordinary facial hair) has an amateur partner registered as "Mule Deer". True!

kwinigolfer wrote:Bob!

....

This was the occasion of my favourite shot (outside the Ryder Cup of course) of last year. Have a butcher's at #1 on the video of top ten Champers Tour shots of last year:

http://www.pgatour.com/video/2012/11/19/top-10--shots-from-the-2012-champions-tour-season.html

Always think a long hole out is a fluke, but nothing flukey about all the skills and imagination necessary for Pavin here. Doesn't show it, but he makes the putt and wins the event in a play-off.

I tried a very similar shot once.. which was why my 8 iron needed a new shaft. The impressive bit is actually the distance control he got.

I'd imagine they'd have to go through due process to ban VJ (get to the bottom of exactly what the offence was, when and for how long, then come to a conclusion about the length of ban required and announce it officially) which they probably haven't had time to do yet.

Don't know if it would be in VJs best interest to just say "Look I've been a complete plank and I deserve substantial punishment, I don't think it's appropriate for me to compete this week until you's have decided what you's want to do with me.

Personally I don't think he should compete, Spyglass in particular is rife with wild deer...don't want to go worrying the animals unneccessarily

I kinda agree with Azinger on this.
What's the benefit to any golfer to use deer antler spray, or a hundred other products to help you heal more quickly?

I DO agree that golfers should be banned from products that can be medically detrimental to their health, are illegal or can gain the user a competitive advantage, but deer antler spray? Come on! Shouldn't be anywhere near a list of prohibited products.

Vijay's an idiot for his ignorance.
But not as big an idiot who put this product on the list of illegal substances in the first place.

kwinigolfer wrote:
Vijay's an idiot for his ignorance.
But not as big an idiot who put this product on the list of illegal substances in the first place.

Celebrity pairings at Pebble:
http://www.weiunderpar.com/post/att-pebble-beach-pro-am-pairings-and-celebs-harbaugh-condi-gretzky-more

Condoleezza Rice is appearing.

Gretzky is playing with a guy his daughter is dating. Wayne's wife will be making huge bets on the score.

Vijay's playing partner is not a Deer. It's Shantanu Narayen, CEO of Adobe (neither is in the habit of smiling)

Imagine Rick Tocchet is creating some unusual wagers - but not sure Janet will be amused . . . .

Mr. Mule Deer should be paired with Vijay?

I wonder if Gretzky allows DJ boarding, roughing and high sticking his daughter?

Great read, kwini.
Agree in general with your analysis, can't see at the moment any of the Euro newcomers on the PGAT having a really strong year there. Not saying that one of them couldn't snatch a win somewhere along the line, but if it happens would be more the exception rather than the rule... I'm more hopeful for Harrington as well, but wouldn't bet any big money on him just yet...

But what about Rory committing to play in Houston?! Robo must be happy to hear that...

Chamblee speaks my mind:
http://www.sbnation.com/golf/2013/2/6/3956514/vijay-singh-2013-pebble-beach-pro-am-preview

It will be cool on the Monterey Peninsula for the AT&T Pro-Am, with the chance of some rain later today and overnight into Friday. Then sunny and 50's through the weekend. A little wind could make conditions miserable Friday morning.

Vijay still in the field - no word yet beyond the obligatory "No Comment" following his tete-a-tete with Finchem yesterday.

No word yet either on any famous golfers flying to Lindsey Vonn's bedside.

OK, Here's a totally random trivia question.

What do the following have in common?
Couples
Els
Furyk
Garcia
Goosen
Harrington
Love (off for two months incidentally following neck surgery - ouch.)
Mickelson
Montgomerie
Nicklaus
Norman
Palmer
Player
Woods

As I said it's (almost) totally random! But interesting!!

They all have at least one vowel in their surname..what did I win??

In other words.. I have no idea

Bob_the_Job wrote:...They all have at least one vowel in their surname..what did I win??

..they all have at least 2 consonants and one vowel in their name??

In other words... I have no idea!

No clues!

Vijay tied for the Pebble lead - with eleven others.

Was thinking that it was something like played in a ProAm with their Dad's but realised that Westwood would be on there.

No idea.

I see Bob Estes in the lead... coincidentally, he is the lowest ranked player (#157) who can still reach #64 in the ranks with a win at Pebble this week...

They have all sent flowers to Lindsey Vonn?

They have all won tournaments in 3 consecutive decades?

Tournaments in three decades?
Good idea, but wonder if Monty and Harrington have?
Regardless, it's less specific than that, although longevity comes into it - and not necessarily the type that Lindsey craves.

Making the cut in x tournaments? Playing in x majors, in x consecutive years?

Seems to have been at least a dozen putts under 15ft missed by Europeans already, if shot tracker's anything to go by.

With us having written him off at the start of the thread, Sweden's Norlander is 2 under thru 8 at Pebble, despite a 3 putt bogey, a missed 10footer for birdie, and a missed 5footer for birdie. Hit every green so far. Good golf!

pedro,
It's a much more general "distinction" than that.

NedB-H wrote:Seems to have been at least a dozen putts under 15ft missed by Europeans already, if shot tracker's anything to go by.

With us having written him off at the start of the thread, Sweden's Norlander is 2 under thru 8 at Pebble, despite a 3 putt bogey, a missed 10footer for birdie, and a missed 5footer for birdie. Hit every green so far. Good golf!

Rolls in an 11footer for eagle on 18! I said he was playing well!

He's on a roll, Ned; is there a hole in Golf you'd rather eagle than the 18th at Pebble? (Par 5's anyway!)

Westwood going nicely, but sorry to see Harrington suffered his obligatory Par-5 bogey.

Singh and Dustin not doing so well under the media glare!

My trivia question was quite obtuse and almost un-Google-able. But these fourteen golfers have each been in Golf Digest annual list of GD Top Fifty earners, on and off the course) for each of the last ten years.

Haven't researched every list but the least that the lowest earner on this list has accumulated must be approx $100M, Woods closer to $1B of course.


Nice to see Lee Westwood off to a strong start - perhaps the paternal influence is doing him some good! And Russell Knox going along very nicely - a long way to go, of course, but a top ten this week would get him in Riviera next week.

So far so good for Knox, Greg Owen and Westwood.

Remember, the cut here follows Round 3 on Saturday evening:
Top 60 and ties play on Sunday as normal.
Anyone Top 70 and ties who doesn't make the Top 60 gets paid, earns FedEx points, but goes home.

Gary Christian and Robbie Karlsson the only Europeans struggling right now.

What do you folks think if this tweet from steve elkington;

Steve Elkington ‏@elkpga
So all of the rest of the pgatour players have to call the DRUG HOTLINE to see if Vitamins( antlers) are OK.... But VJ doesn't? Horseshit!

and this one;

Steve Elkington ‏@elkpga
And why is VJ meeting Finchem at pebble beach ... He was off last week & lives 3 antlers from Pgatour HQ

Elk is one of the few golfers with Twitter accounts that are interesting enough to make it worthwhile to follow.
Does he have any cartoons of Veej with antlers sticking out of his head?

All rhetoric until we learn what Finchem has done - easiest thing would have been to suspend him immediately and send him back to FLA, but I sense some bifurcation . . . . . !

To me, Elk sounds like a hardcore redneck. Interesting to Y'all?

Kwin - I hope your snowblower's at ready! And plenty of beer in the garage.

So now Sophie Gustafson speaks up about the ridiculous scenario we currently have where VJ is playing after an admission of taking PED's.

From Twitter;

Sophie Gustafson ‏@SophieGustafson
Is it just me that thinks it's outrageous that Vijay is playing this week? Used banned substance and still allowed to play.. #takeastand

Gustafson spews truth from every orifice, i can't imagine this ludacris situation happening in any other sport.

incontinentia wrote:Gustafson spews truth from every orifice, i can't imagine this ludacris situation happening in any other sport.

Err no - she just tweeted but thanks for the hyperbole. I agree with her opinion though and I can only imagine what LW was really thinking playing around Pebble Beach with Vijay. What do you say when shaking hands on the 18th "Well played, when does the rutting season start?"