Federer v Nadal - Flushing Meadows

Guys,

This was the subject of hot debate yesterday. Nadal and Federer on 'Outdoor' courts. They have duelled on the Green Grass of Wimbledon, They have duelled on the Red Clay of Roland Garros, They have even duelled on the Hard Stuff of Melbourne. The only gladitorial theatre they haven't duelled on is the Blue Stuff of New York.

A final with these 2 would cement this rivalry's place as the greatest rivalry ever.

So some factors to take into account.

Federer is in the sunset of his career at the age of 30
A 5 time US Open champion and 6 time finalist
A 4 time Australian Open champion and 5 time finalist
14 HC titles (outside)

Nadal is still in his peak of his career at the age of 25
A 1 time US Open champion and 2 time finalist
A 1 time Australian Open champion
5 HC titles including Gold at the Olympics (outisde)

Main H2H factors:

Nadal leads Federer 17-9
Nadal has defeated Federer on HC in a Slam at the Australian Open
Federer leads 5-4 on HC
Nadal leads 3-1 on (outside courts)

So who is money on guys?

50/50

4-1 Nadal on outdoor hard courts. not 3-1. That alone answers the question.

They were twice just a point from meeting in an USO final. Wonder if it will happen now, although of course they could meet in a semi this year. Reckon Fed might still be slight favourite even in 2012. Would probably have been favourite in recent years, too.
Have the same pair played in EVERY Slam final ? Not sure it's happened in the Open era.

if they were to meet this year, I would think Rafa would edge it because I am not sure that I believe Fed still has the stamina to go undefeated through 7 matches bo5 unless a draw was very kind to him. I think the five years age difference is beginning to show, and the doubt that Fed must have meeting Rafa in a final.

However if you were to say 2013 or 2014 (providing TMF still playing and they are both seeded and drawn to meet) I think I would reverse my bet. Once Rafa begins to lose his foot speed, I think he will lose a bigger component of his game than Fed has with losing an inch or two.